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What will the fed do next to keep dow above 11000

Started by zizizi
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007
Discussion about
Will they make interest rates negative? Will Bernanke auction off his beard to the Saudis? Will Bush declare a mandatory reverse split for all US stocks? Where's spunky where you need him for his stock picking skills?
Response by julia
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007

my question is what will the feds do to keep the dow about 10000

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Response by MMAfia
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007

To be honest, the Fed has much more important dangers to avert than the equity market right now.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

The equity markets will be fine. Much of this is due to mark-to-market accounting rules that in certain cases don't make sense. When a market reappears for these underlying securities, there will be huge write-ups.

The economy has slowed, but not disastrously. $4 gas is a shock, but not much worse than it was in the 70's. Housing will deflate massively but it has to - it is a bubble, unsustainable by incomes. With luck someone in Washington and Albany will finally understand that the government - like households - can't borrow to pay operating expenses. But that last one's a long-shot.

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Response by alpine292
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

So now you guys want a bailout? HA HA HA HA.

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Response by iMom
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 279
Member since: Feb 2008

The Fed has no mandate to keep the stock market at any level. It's job is to control monetary policy to balance growth while guarding against inflation. While it's true that these factors are reflected to some extent in the stock market and that the level of stocks might be one factor the Fed uses in forming monetary policy, it is by no means the Fed's job to keep the Dow (or any index, for that matter) above or below any level.

BTW: To answer your questions:

Real-interest-rates are already negative.
Bernanke's beard wouldn't get one drop of oil from the Saudi's.
Bush isn't even aware there's a looming economic crisis.
Spunky is too busy stalking Stevejhx.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

iMom, spunky has disappeared ever since it's been plainly obvious that it's better to rent than to buy.

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Response by MMAfia
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007

"It's job is to control monetary policy to balance growth while guarding against inflation."

That is its advertised role. Very different from reality.

Please watch this very enlightening video:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-466210540567002553

As always, MANY thanks to the Ludwig von Mises Institute

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Response by MMAfia
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007

BTW- LOVE how a "young" RON PAUL appears near the end of the video at 39:20.

Also, the MOST important part of the video, when Nixon basically abolished the Gold standard and enabled the FED to create money out of thin air starts at -> 32:36

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Response by lowery
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1415
Member since: Mar 2008

well, look, everyone -- if people could figure out how to make millions by selling people drinking water and changing the design of a backpack to accommodate the shape of a plastic bottle containing drinking water, I'm confident that someone else will figure out how to make money charging people to breathe, and that will stimulate the economy and then Obama and McCain can duke it out over whose plan to increase nuclear power generation is responsible for it all -- are you sure beards can't be exchanged like a commodity?

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Response by manhattanguy
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 152
Member since: Mar 2008

We are already in a bear market. Dow will correct 36% from its top level of 14200. We will most probably see Dow at 10,000 by year end. Ofcourse there will be sharp rallies along the way. Fed has lost control of our economy.

Short Tech & Financials and long commodities.

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Response by aboutready
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

No, iMom, Spunky disappeared along with his financial picks. Maybe I'm wrong, and if he holds C for 20 or so years he'll get a great return, but I don't think so.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

Yes, C. The Incredible Shrinking Bank.

There are 2 banks that will make you money in the long-term. JPM and BAC. Anything else, RUN!

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Response by spunky
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007

Nope I am now short the S and P, the QQQQ, all Financials stocks. Going long Oil. Buying Gold and selling short all home bulder stocks.. How can I lose. I am going to make a ton of money.

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Response by spunky
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007

Oh I forgot I am shorting the hell out of DIA.

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Response by JuiceMan
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007

I bet aboutready has a beard.

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Response by Peanubbajelly
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 2
Member since: Jan 2007
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Response by MMAfia
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007

Peanubbajelly, that would not be a smart move at this point. Trying to catch a falling knife is very risky and should only be done with money that you can afford to lose (i.e. low risk premium for that investment strategy).

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Response by lowery
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1415
Member since: Mar 2008

I'm confused -- we're in a bear market, and people want to sell?

What happened to buy low, sell high? What happened to invest for the long term?

Would you wait for everything to get hunky dory and financials to go back to their old highs, and then buy them? I'm not being sarcastic, which I realize is rare for this message board, but I really am curious about this.

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Response by MMAfia
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007

lowery, without getting into too much details, in a Bear market, Bear market rules apply:

* Oversold conditions should be viewed as extremely dangerous. Whereas in bull markets oversold lows usually present buying opportunities, in bear markets they can often resolve into more heavy selling.

* Overbought conditions in a bear market are most likely to signal that a trading top is at hand.

* While bear market rallies present great profit opportunities, long positions should be managed as short-term only.

refer to this old article from back in January (which correctly predicted what's happening now):
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080118_bear.html

Hope that adds some perspective.

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Response by urbandigs
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

spunky - I guess that will get your money back from your C at 27 and MER at 46 call. May luck be with you.

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Response by zizizi
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007

I doubt it, I think there'll be a rally now, surely another round of "quant" funds is about ready to fall off a cliff and they'll be panicking out of their shorts.

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Response by urbandigs
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

I must admit I am fairly long at these levels, having timed the bounce about 600 points too early. Doh. Thing is, bear market rallies come when dont expect it and last longer than you would think. They are sharp and fierce. But at these broken technical levels and news like FRE,FNM, and LEH down 15%, its kind of scary that a crisis of confidence is about to happen again and an event may occur

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Response by zizizi
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007

I can't see how FRE would fail (famous last words, I know). Paulson will just lend them his money printing machine for a while.

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Response by urbandigs
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

the can be nationalized, and stocks go to 0...

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Response by manhattanguy
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 152
Member since: Mar 2008

LEH short was a great call. Next sector to fall is a real estate investment trust (REIT) funds. I am looking to short SPG.

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Response by lowery
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1415
Member since: Mar 2008

MMafia - thanks. I think I sort of almost understand. In other words, no matter what anyone says, you have to "time the market" and "pick the bottom." Hard to do, of course.

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Response by dco
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008

It will just keep the lending window open. Imagine if you went to Vegas and hit the tables. Odds are that the house will win most of your money. The reason they win is not just because the odds are in their favor, but it's also because they have more money then you. They have an endless supply of money. If you had the same advantage you would never lose. You would just keep betting until it brings you even. In essence that is exactly what the FED is doing with the Banks. They are telling them, don't worry the money will be here until you no longer need it. This has created an artificial market that will eventually catch-up and make us all pay. What is this going to cost the tax payers. The price is going to be off the charts. Constant intervention from the FED and the lying on wall street will make things much worse for years to come.

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Response by dco
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008

They better do something quik, because it looks like Lehman is going under. Oh, that's right the FED will just let them borrow money from the tax payers. It's like a crack-house hiring a crackhead as a sales rep.

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Response by zizizi
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007

Was the Paulson call on the spot or what?

I forgot:

Threaten short sellers with regulation.

Make it a crime to think bad thoughts about financials.

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Response by zizizi
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007

spunky, how's that short index position working out for you?

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Response by zizizi
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007

spunky, how's that short index position working out for you?

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