Cramer (Mad Money) says buy now

If you're saying 6 months for the national market, I can believe it. That being said, housing bottoms rarely "bounce", they usually sit there for a while. Even if... NYC is 12-18 months behind the rest of the country in starting the crash, so even going by Cramer logic that could mean 2 years...

The other part of this is... they took Jim Cramer's picks over the past x years from the TV show, and calculated their return.

He didn't beat the S&P.

Cramer is right. No crash in Manhattan. Maybe some modest downticks into the 1st Q of 2009, but it is a buyers market right now. Perhaps we have not reached bottom, but on average, I am not sure bottom is going to be that different than top, perhaps a few percentage points.

> Cramer is right. No crash in Manhattan.

Hillarious... he didn't say anything like that.

> I am not sure bottom is going to be that different than top, perhaps a few percentage points.

Another one for the quote pile!

Will, Q1 09 is when all these horrible bonus predictions will become fact. After two consecutive years with no bonus bounce, what will prevent further downticks?

If you look at the "Comps" thread, you'll see that plenty of Manhattan properties are already down more than a few percentage points.

Right, he didn't explicitly say it, but that's what I get out of it.

Senate just voted on the Housing Bill. This will be the beginning of the end of the Great Finacial Crisis of 2008.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25862539

Check back with me on my quote in April 2009. Unless you are hoping for a continued economic crisis, people being put out of their houses, continuing stress and distress, increased crime, dirt and decay.

Yeah, a crash worth waiting for.

Tenemental, there could be further downticks. If you want to pin me down to an exact prediction, here it is:

Median prices will decline 7% now through November, but sales in general will increase.

In December,there will be a more marked decline to 12-15%, and though prices will be lower, sales will increase as a result of the lower prices. Also, most of the decline will be in Northern Manhattan, some in Midtown East, some in the area near Penn Station.

Things will be kind of flat in January, both in terms of sales and prices, but inventory will go down slightly. As the financial dust settles in March and April, sales will start picking up again and median prices will appreciate on a gradual basis.

There might be some more upticks and downticks through 2011, but price appreciation will be sluggish.

Generally, through all of this, strong areas such as Tribeca, Central Park W. and the West Village will remain strong, flat at worst.

Around 2011, median prices will appreciate in general at a slightly higher pace. In 2012-13, prices in Tribeca, the Financial District and Battery Park City will surge as the WTC is completed.

Prices will appreciate at a robust rate generally starting mid-decade.

This is what I see in my crystal ball. No crash. Great buyers market for a while. Generally flat prices with some short-lived decline toward the end of the year. Sluggish appreciation starting in April-May. The 2001-2007 boom period is over, but it will be more like the mid 90s than the late 80s. Just my opinion.

> Right, he didn't explicitly say it, but that's what I get out of it.

It isn't that he didn't explicitly say it, its that he didn't say anything like it. You want it to be said, so you're claiming it was. Thats the kind of "logic" that makes for some pretty poor decisions.

It would be pretty funny if it wasn't so sad... but these are the folks who the stories get told about a couple years after the crash... "he bought WHERE for THAT MUCH? oh my lord"

Whats sad Eddie is you. You could care less how much anyone loses in this market as long as you cam say, see I was right. I feel sorry for you.Time to get a little humility or what generally happens is you get humiliated.

Oh, please. Cramer was advising people to buy Bear Stearns 4 days before its Sunday collapse. His picks are frequently awful and he has all kinds of vested interests.

high end areas - west side, tribeca, east side, will be level or decrease in the next year. Other areas that currently do not have high per sq ft prices and low wall street population - LES, West Village, etc will see a 10-15% yoy price increase in 2009.

Petrfitz, west village already has high price per sqf. That being said, it is the one area of Manhattan that will probably not see major, if any price decrease.
In general, prices will be down around 10% by next year. The LES will be down at least that much, if not more. Once Wall Street starts to stabilize, in a few years, and if we get decent leadership in the mayor's office, which is doubtful, we could see stabilization of prices by q4 2010. Until then, it will be a buyer's market. I don't know why you think LES is immune to price decreases just because you assume that there are not a high concentration of finance people living there. That is a simplistic analysis. The LES has to contend with all of the same fundamental issues as everywhere else. If you truly believe that solely foreign money, to the extent that that actually is a factor, can keep prices up, you are incorrect.

mh except that the LES and EV are being rezoned right now to decrease the amount of buildable space therefore offsetting any increase in units due to slowing. The LES is positioned best in Manhattan RE over the next 2 years.

They're being rezoned to restrict the amount of buildable space, but part of the rezoning will also enable quite a bit of high rise development in the strips that will become unprotected. Not to mention the incredible inventory on far east Grand Street and in many parts of the LES that are de facto Chinatown at the moment.

At this point buying a nice vacation place in miami beach for about $150k seems like a much better deal than anything that can be bought in Manhattan.

petrfitz

That's the first time I have heard of density being reduced in rezoning. What a spin!

You can freeze development with rezoning but you cannot go backwards and reduce amount of buildable space for a particular property or area.

> will see a 10-15% yoy price increase in 2009.

ROTFL. Got that one written down.

Honestly, Cramer called the bottom in the financials back in February. Remember, this guy needs to fill 60 minutes a night so mark what he says with grains of salt, albeit the guy's a smart guy but he's not an oracle.

surdy - you obvioulsy know nothing about the EV/LES it is a downzoning. Its sole purpose is to reduce buildable space by getting rid of air rights sales, setting new building limts etc. Stay on the west coast you are too slow to be in NY, you will get eaten alive.

All from the guy that calls on site Ellimen Sales Agents - Real Estate Professionals.

petrfitz, not sure how you can lump the LES with the West Village - they are essentially diametrically opposite one another in terms of gentrification, as far as Manhattan goes anyway.

because they both have very low populations of wall street types, and the current price per sq ft in these neighborhoods are lower than other manhattan like tribeca and UWS.

petrfitz

At least I know how to spell E-l-l-i-m-a-n. Anybody who can't spell, probably cannot do grade 5 math either. So I figure you are losing all this money on your investments (if you have any) and given your limited education and ability to do the math your profits are actually losses. It's just that you brain lacks the capability to figure that out!

So keep your shit views for yourself. I can safely say, I have done better than you in life and something you can only hope for it in the future. But I don't see you getting there unless lightning strikes you , in which case you will be dead anyway!

oh its on now. Petrofitz tell him about your maybach.

surdy - you have done better than me? I am worth $11 million in my 30's own my own media company and 4 buildings in NYC. What about you?

oh yeah - my education is lacking? I have a masters in chemical engineering. You?

oh I actually have a Elliman broker personally assigned to me because I have bought signficant properties through them. You west coast tool.

petrfitz

JD. OK, that makes it easier. So what do you want to bet on that you have better or more of? Primary residence, cars, watches, bank balance, net worth, you name it. Just let me know the amount. I will even give you 2-1 odds. And LMK the name of your lawyer if you have the balls for it. An open challenge.

can the rest of us lay down action on this one?

Well one thing is for sure Cramer your bull market ain't here in Manhattan real estate.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/231564-coop-55-east-72nd-street-upper-east-side-manhattan

Ouch! Did they have it wrong to begin with or do they really need to sell? Either way it looks like Let's Make a Deal time.

And petrfitz, for God's sake lighten up. While you do often offer high entertainment value, honestly we are not all here to learn about you. Try not to take each thread - no i did not say threat- so personally. Are you paranoid? or are we really all trying to get you?

"because they both have very low populations of wall street types, and the current price per sq ft in these neighborhoods are lower than other manhattan like tribeca and UWS."

Sorry, but this is just wrong, no other way to put it. As per StreetEasy, the median price in the West Village is $2.625 million. The median price in the LES is $659k. That's almost 2 million less. And I'd love to see the data that says the West Village has few Wall St types.

"surdy - you have done better than me? I am worth $11 million in my 30's own my own media company and 4 buildings in NYC. What about you?"

Not surprisingly, his net worth doubles (and his gf gets hotter) with every post.

Even if this were true, if you owned all of those + your vegas brads and your net worth were only $11 mil, I'd say those are some pretty damn crappy buildings and media companies you owned...

But, in the end, who cares. Just read his posts, and he's clearly a moron...

> can the rest of us lay down action on this one?

Already did....and won. Gotta love the Case Shiller...

Worth repeating: Trompiloco -
Oh, please. Cramer was advising people to buy Bear Stearns 4 days before its Sunday collapse. His picks are frequently awful and he has all kinds of vested interests.

Case Shiller? please.

Petrfitz has consistently said $11MM and a hot wife. I don't think he is a moron. But I would put $100 that he is an Eastern European immigrant, which may account for his spelling, his lack of empathy, and his angry political leanings.

Its $11 million of equity - free and clear unencumbered net worth akin to cash in the bank. That does not account for unvalued property gains, my equity on my company's valuation, antiques, etc.

Surdy - you are a tool and a liar. YOur previous posts were talking about looking for an apartment in a large development building in Chelsea. If you were a player of any worth you wouldnt be buying a small pad with the rabble. Your own posts have outed you as a liar.

Isn't boasting on the internet about how much money you have or how hot your girlfriend/wife is very 1996?

petrfitz
Surdy - you are a tool and a liar. YOur previous posts were talking about looking for an apartment in a large development building in Chelsea. If you were a player of any worth you wouldnt be buying a small pad with the rabble. Your own posts have outed you as a liar.

Obviously, like I said earlier, your comprehension ability is seriously impaired. I never said I was looking at buying a apartment in a large development in Chelsea. And for you I will do one better. I have already stated in various posts that to me it did not make sense to buy in this market so I am a 'loser renter' now in Manhattan. All I can say is, thank goodness I still have "my small pad" on the WC and ' no Maybach'.

Surdy - you never said that you flew in a met with onsite Ellimen agents at large condo developments? You are a complete liar.

Here is where Surdy stated he was looking for a condo and talking to Onsite Sales Agents

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4026-if-the-sky-doesnt-fall

this is also where Surdy calls onsite agents "RE Professionals"

"REA- Real Estate Agents at onsite sales office is whom I was referencing as"professionals". Not you or me."

He also states that California has a higher RE price per sq ft than Manhattan.

Hilarious.

petrfitz

Surdy - you never said that you flew in a met with onsite Ellimen agents at large condo developments? You are a complete liar.

If anybody can make sense of the above post, can they let me know what petrfitz is babbling about.

Surdy you called an onsite sales agent - the lowest of the brokers - more knowledgible in real estate than you.

How can you be such a huge success and think an on site lacky is a "professional" and more knowledgible in RE than you?

I posted your exact words that prove you are a liar.

Also Surdy - your first post before anyone responded to you included this statement bye you:

"And I am not a "loser renter" as I already own a home that is better than 99.9 % of the properties in Manhattan."

What a pompous ass. Obviously you know nothing about the truely wealthy in NYC.

Like I said your above quotes and surmises thereof reek of mental impairment/incompetence so the discussion ends here for me.

And so therefore, it does not even deserve a rebuttal. EOD.

so the exact quotes from you reek of mental impairment?

Are you saying that you did not post the statements above?

It sucks to be caught lying by your own words.

surdy
about 5 weeks ago
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Per: Khar, Nariman Point, Pali Hill in Mumbai is priced higher than Manhattan per sq ft. So what?

New York state is not priced higher than California per sq ft. So what?

Petrfitz, Above is the exact quote from my post that you referred to. And below is your butchered version of it:

"He also states that California has a higher RE price per sq ft than Manhattan."

??????

I hate to repeat it "COMPREHENSION IS NOT YOUR STRONG POINT".

Actually Surdy - you got caught lying again here is your exact quote "The zip starts with 926. And it is priced higher than Manhattan and I don't have to live in a closet."

seems like lying is your strong point

> What a pompous ass. Obviously you know nothing about the truely[sic] wealthy in NYC.

I know that they can spell...

;-)

this board is like a debate contest in the special olympics

petrfitz, 926 ZIPs are for Orange County, CA, so I don't see how that's a "lie." Why do you insist on becoming the troll of this board?

so bjw - you are saying that Orange County properties which include homes and land are higher on a per sq foot price than Manhattan?

Here is a Laguana Beach Residence offered at $2,295,000 - $2,695,000
http://www.californiamoves.com/Property/propertydetails.aspx?SearchID=550239&PropertyGUID=E0B255E3-8169-4702-987D-A75BD2F520BA&RowNum=7
5009 per sq ft of home - does not take into account per sq fott of land offered with home, nor does it take into account unbuilt space for future additions
Roughly $538 per sq ft for the residence alone.

Here is a condo on the Upper West Side (- you cant buy a house on the UWS for this chump change) listed at $2.65
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/945291
$1,441/sqft

So I am wrong again.

petrfitz, I didn't exactly say that. But there's no denying that Orange County is one of the wealthiest ZIPs in the country, so I'd hardly say surdy was "lying." You, on the other hand, have yet to address my point above about likening the LES to the West Village, where the median price was nearly $2m higher.

On a median residence value, zips on Orange County were definitely at the top of the heap, with many of them over all of Manhattan except for one tribeca zip. A hamptons zip and one on the north shore of LI also made it on (I think this was also the Forbes list).

NYC has lots of smaller places, so the PSFs might be higher, but median values have often not been highest in the country...

$2.5 million can buy you 1 of thousands of single family homes in Orange County. How many sngle family homes can you buy in Manhattan for $2.5 - none.

http://www.pariestates.com/area%20resources/top%2010%20most%20expensive%20zip%20codes.pdf

Comprende?

surdy - the OC is middle class compared to Manhattan - please tell me how many single family homes can you buy in the OC for $3 million? And how many that price will buy in Manhattan.

You can have a few million and be a player in the OC, a few million makes you lower class in Manhattan

bjw - i answered your question please read the posts.

> Comprende?

Clearly not... SneakyPutz has been conveniently blind to facts and logic for some time now. He's wrong, the stats clearly point that out, and he's trying to change the subject because he's been shown to be stupid (once again).

Eddie Wilson you agree with Surdy that the OC is where all the wealthy live? Do you mean that the OC is where the "Masters of the Universe" live? Is being wealthy in OC mean that you would be tops in NYC?

Ar there more Billionaires in the OC or Manhatttan?

"bjw - i answered your question please read the posts."

You most certainly did not.

bjw - here is the same post copy and pasted again - because they both have very low populations of wall street types, and the current price per sq ft in these neighborhoods are lower than other manhattan like tribeca and UWS.

petrfitz - here is my reply copied and pasted again. This is what you haven't responded to.

"because they both have very low populations of wall street types, and the current price per sq ft in these neighborhoods are lower than other manhattan like tribeca and UWS."

Sorry, but this is just wrong, no other way to put it. As per StreetEasy, the median price in the West Village is $2.625 million [it's now $2.72 million]. The median price in the LES is $659k. That's almost 2 million less [and now more than $2m above]. And I'd love to see the data that says the West Village has few Wall St types.

BJW - what is the median in UWS, and Tribeca?

also I'd love to see the data that says the West Village has a lot of Wall Street types.

petrfitz - median in UWS is $1.295m, about $1.5m less than it is in the West Village. Tribeca is $2.95m, which isn't that much more than the WV. Your likening of the WV to the LES makes no sense in these terms. You just can't justify this.

As for the data about finance types in the WV - YOU made the claim that few were there, so YOU should be the one providing the data. It's not an answer to ask me to provide the data. I doubted your claim because I've never seen evidence of it - I did not make a claim of my own. See the difference? You can't make these claims about markets you don't seem to know about here - someone's got to hold you accountable for poor information.

yeah except that they are both downtown, contiguous to each other (sort of) and traditionally not places where wall streeters live.

You are just an argumentative moron.

Please provide me data that states opposite of the traditional publically accepted belief that the WV is not a home to many Wall Streeters.

I just don't like you spewing misinformation around here - no need to call me a "moron" when your facts aren't straight. Tribeca and WV are not contiguous (Soho is in between). And, as I said earlier, show me where this "publically accepted belief that the WV is not a home to many Wall Streeters" comes from. Either way, this all ties back to you argument that the LES will be up YOY. As someone with a lot of supposed vested interest in the neighborhood, I think that's a bit of wishful thinking, but time will tell.

"...the traditional publically accepted belief that the WV is not a home to many Wall Streeters."

I know two "wall streeters" who live in the west village. I haven't a clue where you come up with this statement.

Once again, Perfitz doesn't know diddly. Why are we ever surprised

In at least one of the associate classes I know of (bulge bracket), the WVillage is by far the most popular neighbohood. And I personally know a couple directors there.

Of course, what does a putz living in his mom's basement in Henderson, NV know about where the bankers live?

Eddie, not sure why I'm surprised anymore either - this is the same guy who says we're going to be in 3 wars soon in another thread. I've said it before here, but I'm pretty frustrated with these kinds of posters migrating over from Curbed or wherever. This is used to be quite a useful board.

TA - I will play by your rules. I know 15 actors and musicians who live in the West Village.

morons.

bjw- you dont think that we could be in 3 wars soon? Maybe you know more about this than me, I am just a Civilian Board member of the armed services.

Yes, and because those 15 people live there, no other people at all live there.

Just when I think SneakyPete can't get any stupider, he opens his mouth again...

eddiewilson - so you are saying that if you asked anyone on the street where do most wall streeters live? the answer would certainly be the West Village?

Yes, petrfitz, asking people on the street is a pretty terrible way to get good information, but go ahead. In my experience, finance types gravitate towards the wealthiest and safest neighborhoods. Those include the UES (Park, Madison, and 5th), Tribeca, Soho, and the West Village.

You've got to be kidding about the "board member" comment. Which board are we talking about here exactly (I'm sure the "armed services" have more than one)? And does it make you privy to sensitive national security issues? And if it does, you're somehow talking about 3 simultaneous wars on this very public message board? This is a complete farce, right? You're just trying to be a troll here.

"TA - I will play by your rules. I know 15 actors and musicians who live in the West Village.

morons."

Great dick. That accounts for all of 17 units. You're much smarter than all of us.

Ok douche. which one are you? better yet, which one should we call to ask which "civilian member" goes on internet boards calling people morons.

http://docs.law.gwu.edu/asbca/biog.htm

"You're just trying to be a troll here"

He isn't trying, he already is. He starts all these political threads/rants which pretty much paint him as a total leftist. That is until the topic of NYC RE comes up, at which point he becomes super-bull and climbs into his ivory tower. Hypocrite, plain and simple. Not that we all didn't know this to begin with...

OK I admit it I am wrong and you guys aare right. I now admit that the West Village is now and has always been an enclave for Wall Streeters. Also, I am now convinced thanks to you guys that renting is a smarter investment than owning, and George Bush actually was good for the american economy.

I will no longer try to use my past success in RE - which must have been totoaly luck - as a basis for understanding the markets. I am selling all my real estate and will rent an apartment until TA, TheFED, Steve and MMAfia are satisified that any investment in RE is a sure thing.

or is it one of these guys although no one here appears to be in their 30s.

http://www.cbca.gsa.gov/

i think i've got it. petrofitz confuses streeteasy with secondlife.com.

wrong board. wrong website.

> i think i've got it. petrofitz confuses streeteasy with secondlife.com.

ROTFL.

> eddiewilson - so you are saying that if you asked anyone on the street
> where do most wall streeters live? the answer would certainly be the West Village?

No wonder why SneakyPutz is such an astute investor... he gets his "advice" from folks sitting next to him waiting for the bus. I think he just bought some pets.com

Actually, per the last associate I talked to at a bulge bracket, its the top destination of choice right now for the mid-level. Lots of old farts on the Upper East Side, for sure, but there probably isn't any Wall Street destination growing faster than WV.

I think that makes you 0 for 100 now, Pete, doesn't it?

> OK I admit it I am wrong and you guys aare right. I now admit that the West
> Village is now and has always been an enclave for Wall Streeters. Also,
> I am now convinced thanks to you guys that renting is a smarter investment than owning,

SuckerPete, you think because you're connecting it to a made up statement, you WEREN'T blatantly wrong on these things? Seems like you were pretty well shut down on both of thise.

> I will no longer try to use my past success in RE

Yes, I'm sure Marvin Gardens is worth millions now...

"wrong board. wrong website."

Well, point us in the right direction please.

try... www.investingfordummies.com

Thanks EddieWilson!