Discussions

Ryan, real brokers are too busy doing deals as you well know. It's just unfortunate for us that this forum has become a zoo of confused middle aged men sitting in coffee shops trying to "disrupt" the industry. Clearly not doing any deals.

It obviously infuriates me at least anytime I happen to log on and see all of this invective. Mostly infighting it seems ironically.

Congrats on 432 Park btw.

So many new developments coming online. You see the list prices, but how can you find out what the actual prices sales are being made? I've read that luxury new developments are one of the hardest hit areas of the market.

Hi R. I went to the beach. I'm back if you want to talk real estate.
ali r.

Ernest,
Believe you have to wait for a sale to close to find out the discount. Contract price is not public information. You can see where 212 Fifth Avenue traded as an example high-end luxury but not ultra-luxury. Also, 432 Park Avenue for ultra-luxury (mostly 20% below list; I do not think anything ever traded at list). 157 West 57th resales as a barometer for ultra-luxury - down 10-20% from the peak closing prices. There are also many luxury new developments which are sold out before they are completed as in 21 East 12th likely without any discount.

300,
When do you think developers of buildings like The XI, Central Park Tower, The Crown Building, 220 Central Park South, etc. will admit that they are on the market and release listings?

That is good question. I think ultra-luxury has come down in prices by 15-20 percent from the crazy asks and actual sales of 2015. It can come down another 15 percent and there is still plenty of money to be made for developers whose all in cost basis is probably $2500-4000 per sq ft depending on the view and allocation of cost. These developers do not to show their hand. Guessing they ask for $8k per sq ft and depending on how one negotiates, may be settling for $5k per square ft for one apartment and $6k for another similar apartment.

So you think there's a decent chance ultra-luxury prices could drop 35% off of peak prices? ;)

If something was priced at $8k per sq ft originally I would not be surprised if it trades at $5k per sq ft as all-in cost is likely no more than $4k per sq ft for the best apartments with average closet to $3k per sq ft resulting in min 25 percent profit on non annualized basis. However, calculus is a little different for standard luxury new developments priced at low $2k per sq ft. I think their original ask is down 10 percent and they can go down another 5-10 percent to just below $2k. Of course, I am not talking about 1 Manhattan square. We will know the fate in a year from now when the building is completed.

I just got a glossy 4 page/8 sided color foldout in snail mail from them wrapped in a clear plastic sleeve sent to "(me) or current resident (i.e. it wasn't sent to me as an RE professional). I can't imagine how much money they must have spent on this.

When things are so bad you change the building's name to try and hide from the past (and it didn't even have "Trump" in it).

Stop attempting to disrupt the industry! LOL

Wait till you see my IPO!

@30yrs - As always, thank you for making us laugh (twice!).

I miss LuxuryBroker