Meanwhile in Chicago...

George, Moving to Chicago? Prices to indeed much better there.

Chicago feels like what NY is in for if the present course of government continues but the real estate market doesn't keep up. NY has kept itself afloat by raising property taxes across a bigger and more valuable tax base. If the music stops, it means the flywheel goes into reverse, as seems to be happening in Chicago. It's my #1 concern. #2 concern is the number of ppl moving to the suburbs, surprisingly high for a generation that grew up during the ascendancy of cities.

I'm certainly no expert on Chicago real estate, however my wife grew up there and her family still lives there. I do occasionally look at condos, but mostly for fun. Prices are significantly lower than New York City across the board. I've been to a number of very lovely homes in this neighborhood, this particular one seems very expensive. For $3-4M, you can get something outstanding in the same area.

Sounds like the sellers must have run into some unfortunate circumstances to have to sell so quickly after putting all that money into a renovation. It will be interesting to see where the final price ends up.

If high paying jobs disappear, NY will be like Chicago.

And if are going to make silly speculations, why wouldn’t NYC real estate trade at Philly or Cleveland prices?

When the city is in a budget crunch (projecting shortfalls in the billions) things like spending $500 million on highly subsidized ferries so Catsimatidis can charge double the area median rent for his Coney Island project or $2.7 billion for a BQX connector which no one wants except for a handful of developers who have already bought up land along the proposed route seem like the type of expenditures which will lead to the tipping point. But let's blame homeowners in less affluent areas who aren't paying their "fair share" in Real Estate Taxes.
What is most likely to cause New York's fortunes to change is if people don't want to be here as badly (because we've already reached the point where middle class have to want to stay here pretty badly in order to stay). One thing which will be a big factor in that is how safe they feel. While we hear the Mayor and Police Commissioner still pounding the table about how safe the city is people feel less safe as evidenced by the want to double the amount of transit cops. You also see an increase in attacks on Hasids rising, but not from White Supremacists but local minorites. This isn't so much religion based hate crime as is is class warfare.

Meanwhile in Columbus, Ohio, we are getting unsolicited offers on our condo 30% above our 2015 purchase price. Looking for a bigger place there and cannot find a thing. DOM must average less than 3 weeks there. Go figure.

The other thing which I think will hurt NYC is this ill-conceived war on cars. The city is all-in following the Transportation Alternatives playbook of changing traffic patterns to cause congestion on purpose and then having to take extreme measures to fix the problems they caused. While I'm all for people using cars less and bicycles more, the concept that turning over 25% to 50% of roadways to a group which represents 2% of commuters will decrease congestion is fallacious. And making all the streets designed for crosstown traffic into car-free streets is just as bad. In addition to how many small businesses both the above is killing.

MCR,
Apparently the hottest market in the country.
https://www.dispatch.com/business/20190410/columbus-is-nations-hottest-real-estate-market

Don't worry folks, I've had family in New York since the 20's. There certainly will be ups and downs some more pronounced than others, but NYC is not going anywhere. It's always had an allure and always will. Even when Ford told us to drop dead, we somehow carried on. When we're all dead, the city will still be there, and some other folks can carry on this conversation...

I spent a couple of years in Chicago. Winters are brutal but I hear that's improving. Transit is not as frequent as here. I would not call it an international city.

I started this thread not to argue that NY prices will converge to Chicago's. This is highly unlikely since NYC is more land-constrained than Chicago. But I do believe that the experience of Chicago could be predictive of NY if the electorate is not careful: overspending --> fiscal problems --> higher taxes --> weaker population & jobs growth --> declining real estate market & suburban flight --> fiscal problems --> vicious circle

Don't forget that every single dollar given to developers as tax incentives has to be made up for by charging other owners. What happened when the original 421a (which was 10 years and full taxes phased in by 20% every 2 years)? It was replaced by a 100% for 12 years and then 8-year phase-in program for certain luxury properties and between 10 and 25 years on others. So you have ultra luxury buildings like 157 West 57th St and 1 Manhattan Sq paying close to no taxes for 2 decades.
And before you say "but affordable housing" - "In exchange for $65.6 million in property tax breaks, Extell spent a mere $5.9 million to help build 66 affordable apartments in the Bronx. Had the city just taken that $65.6 million and spent it directly on affordable housing, the study says, it would have resulted in nearly 370 units."
https://ny.curbed.com/2015/7/15/9940480/one57s-tax-breaks-led-to-a-paltry-number-of-affordable-units
And this is all during a time when tax abatements were totally unnecessary to get developers to build - all it did was increase the amounts they could pay for development sites and the city/other taxpayers foot the bill.
Of course we always hear about jobs, etc just like we did with the Amazon deal. But time and time again at the end of the day a backwards looking analysis of these types of deals fairly uniformly shows them to be long term money losers. Like when you look at how much money the city has had to spend in services supporting the ex-residents of the 150,000 units lost to Rent Stabilization from the 1993 regs change until June 2019. Or you can blame the people who are using those services. But at the end of the day it doesn't matter who you blame, the dollars and cents cost isn't covered by the revenue increased if the supposed revenue enhancement scheme because the money is being made by those saying how good a deal it is for the city and not the city itself.

The issue here is not really NY RE vs. Chicago RE, it's NY's fiscal situation vs. Chicago's fiscal situation. All the signs of danger are already there for NY, it's just being covered up for now because we've had a long streak of favorable conditions. The idea that "NY is different" may be reassuring, but NY doesn't have to approach Chicago levels of dysfunction to put a damper on real estate going forward. It's the flip side of owning property - you also own the tax liability associated with it.

It is a bit hilarious that the 2015 article quoted about building affordable housing assumes each affordable unit built by private industry costs $89K and built by the city is $177K.

No, that's not hilarious at all.

New York (especially since Bloomberg) has been putting too many of its eggs in the tourism basket. Take a look at the volume of hotels being built in what used to be the Flower District, or how new projects like the Market Line are being geared towards tourists and ignoring locals. This is at a time when several other "world cities" (Barcelona, Venice, etc) are pushing back at the tourism economy crowding out the ability of local residents to have an acceptable lifestyle. At some point (whether that's 1 year or 10 years) a global recession will decimate worldwide tourism dollars (which is totally dependant on disposable income) and the more expensive locations (like New York City) will suffer the worst (like brand new, grade B, $350 a night hotel rooms in marginal locations).
The guys I know in the hotel end of the business said in NYC hotels became overbuilt about 3 years ago and since then there have been a ton of new rooms built or being built. https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/how-much-are-nyc-hotels-hurting/

@Eric_14: Delighted to see you weigh in and to see that your are still reading SE discussions. I am always interested in any perspective you might be willing to share.

And @30yrs - I am a die hard believer in New York, but console myself that if the market does not agree that I will at least get to enjoy my preferred US city at a discount. But then again, if the city were not able to maintain its infrastructure or guaranty its citizens’ safety, I could envision my love fading. However, at the end of the day, with all the uncertainty, I confess that I still believe in a place called Hope.

Second armed robbery within a month and a half at an illegal gambling den (actually there has been at least 1 more but that one didn't get reported). At least no one got shot/killed this time:
https://gothamist.com/news/eleven-robbed-during-chinatown-basement-gambling-den-stick-

Someone from WSJ perhaps was reading SE for ideas, but there is an article in today's WSJ about Chicago's stagnant real estate market. The article headline is that prices never really got above the pre-crisis peak, but it missed the lead in to that in that the pre-crisis appreciation was fairly tame in Chicago and the market still got whacked. Then there is this: "Commerz paid $196 million for a 580,000-square-foot office building in downtown Chicago in November 2018. 'For that price you can’t find anything in Warsaw,' he said." Under $340/sq ft!

But it also hits upon Chicago's fiscal situation, but omits the escalating violent crime.

If by escalating you mean down 9% year over year

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/2019/7/1/20676793/chicago-shootings-four-year-low-through-first-half-of-2019-police-crime-stats

30, I'll wager that the typical tourist stays in an AirBNB so I don't think a recession will affect them. Perhaps (hopefully) they will do a shorter stay. Further I think these crappy Chinese hotels are being built because the developers think the areas will eventually be zoned residential and they can go condo.

Violence in a Chinatown gambling den? I can tell you this was much worse and far more common when I lived there in the early 80s. A good friends family owns a lot of real estate in Chinatown, lots of excitement going on behind closed doors....

So you think we're headed back towards where things were in the early 1980s. Good to know.

Stache,
Supposedly there are 50,000 AirBnb listings in NYC the majority of which are not full time, whereas there are over 130,000 hotel rooms all of which are full time. So I'm not sure the typical tourist in NYC uses AirBnb.

I do wonder about crime here. We're about to experience a huge change in the way we police and process those arrested for criminal behavior. Police officers are already drawing back given the downside to having a good Samaritan film the interaction, and we've created a further disincentive to police given that an officer can put herself in harm's way to arrest someone for a felony, just to have the person released. I am not making any prediction on price impact, but as a long time resident, I do think it is a real QOL issue and sadly think the greatest impact will be on those in already troubled neighborhoods.

Well you certainly don't go from a jail capacity of over 20,000 to 3,300 with zero impact. The head of the Corrections Officers union claims they won't even be able to process arrests.

But AFAIK cash bail is only going away for non-violent offenses. I'm sure Murphy's Law will end up showing a rise in violent crime as a result and you have to wonder what kind of war is going to erupt between DAs offices who want "dangerous criminals" locked up and NYPD who want the stats as low as possible.

On the subject of Chicago, a foreign friend of mine arrived in Chicago today, hopped on the Blue Line from O'Hare, and was relieved of everything he was carrying. Safety had been one of NYC's advantages since the 1990s. I hope we don't give this up in the name of some b.s. "social justice".

BTW, there were several articles published on Chicago's weak real estate market today - TRD, Crains, and WSJ. All pointed to the deal spiral of overspending, excessive taxes, and declining population.

But New York is different - just like we will never have anything like an MLS/blanket cobroking here.

One guy you know gets mugged, what kind of conclusions are you going to draw from that? I've been visiting Chicago regularly for the last 15 years, so far so good. Although quite frankly I'm not a fan. My listing on East 16th Street had 60 viewings and five offers including two all cash last month. The real estate market is turning a corner and heading up now?

Like I said previously I've had family in New York since the 30s, my grandfather owned restaurants in Queens Brooklyn and Manhattan. Other family spread out through Brooklyn and Queens. I've been visiting since the 60s, moved to the East village in 1982.

Living in a big metropolitan city is not like living in Greenwich. Expect to get your hands dirty or as we say when your own property on the water, you're going to get your feet wet once in awhile.

30 made a remark about crime returning to the levels of the early 80s? It would take an apocalyptic paradigm shift for that to happen. In the early eighties Tribeca and Soho we're ghost towns at night, walking home from the Mudd club early morning was a bit of an adventure. Later in the 80s my kids went to West Village nursery School(their mom went there in the late 60s). This neighborhood was considered very seedy/sketchy at the time because of its proximity to the meatpacking district which was filled with transvestite hookers, after-hours clubs. New York City today is like Disney world in every regard!

The changes that have taken place to various neighborhoods are simply unbelievable to someone that's been actively coming to the city since I was a teenager in the 70s to collect records. And then moved to 6th Street and avenue C in 1982. The city was rough, think taxi driver rough. And in all those years I've never been mugged or robbed, I don't know anyone personally that has been. But that's just my story, yes of course there's crime! Even during the "bad" times NYC was an amazing and exciting place to live! And at least from my perspective, a much more livable and enjoyable City. It certainly wasn't for everyone.

NYC is not perfect by any means, but it has always been the greatest city in the world! When I played music and toured around the world, everybody's eyes lit up when you told them you were from New York (except for maybe Parisian's : )

Sorry George, I know this is a thread about Chicago. I'll stop now.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

I was pointing out that NYC for several years has been safer than most big cities, but we seem to be reversing that under Blas ... George writes from a subway platform as a guy hops the turnstile. Crime relative to other places matters. That's a reason Chicago suffers, but the same thing could hurt NY

As for NY, it's true that sellers seem to be more realistic than a few months ago, and hence we see good numbers for 4 weeks running in the Olshan Report, but note the big price cops required to move inventory. In my little search of 60 properties, 3 have gone into contract since end of Sept, and 2 have come into the market.

At least Chicago has a mass transit option from the airport. Its laughable what's going on at LGA right now.

+1 on Keith’s comments re New York. My mother rented a loft on Bond Street in the early 80’s; my visit to her there in 1984 was my first real exposure to the city. I loved Bond Street then and I love it now. Consistent with Keith’s comments, the only city I prefer to New York is Paris. I will adapt to whatever New York becomes and do believe NY is different, but time will tell. With that said, I am also aware that 30yrs’ brain is firing on more cylinders than my own, so I don’t discount his input - I am just choosing to ignore it.

"In the early eighties Tribeca and Soho we're ghost towns at night"
That's a straw man argument. Tribeca hadn't been developed yet. It was still a commercial area. You couldn't buy a Condo/Coop there if you wanted to because they largely didn't exist. It was a place where mostly artists lived in illegally converted rental lofts
MCRs mother and I were neighbors in 1984. But that should give her and idea of what type of NYer I am. If things get bad I won't be leaving - I'll start carrying a gun again first. But a VERY large percent of the people who have moved into many neighborhoods won't. Not just if things get a lot worse, but if they figure out they have been deluding themselves into thinking things are safer now than they actually are.

@30yrs - My mother was indeed living with an artist at the time! If you ever saw two teenage girls wandering the neighborhood in ridiculously preppy clothes, that would have been my sister and me. Nobody bothered us at all, and we had no idea that we were in any danger. I cannot believe the change in that little street since that time. As stated, I liked it then and now, and may well find myself with you in starting to carry a gun. I have always been opposed to guns, but find myself feeling like I may need to get with the program given the gun culture and current climate.

Carry a gun? I lived on avenue C and 6th Street in 82, no gun was necessary.

And what strawmam argument are you talkin about regarding Soho and Tribeca being ghost towns? It's not an argument it's a fact. Bond Street was not a rough area in 1984, wasn't Park avenue, but it was far from being rough or dangerous.

MCR, I don't think we're anywhere near needing to carry guns around Sutton place. Just my two cents. : )

In 1984 at least twice a week on Bond St I would have to step over a homeless person to get out of my building. Less than that is currently freaking people in Chelsea out as evidenced by a couple of articles posted here recently.

MCR,
Please ask your mom if when she was living on Bond St if she knew anyone who had ever been robbed or mugged, etc.

@30yrs - Let’s just say that when my father found out about my mother’s free range parenting while we were visiting NY, boarding school plan was immediately put into action. I remember its being like nothing I had ever seen; I was fascinated; my sister was a few years older and kept chiding me to avoid eye contact.

@keith - Gun carrying plans not for NY. Unfortunately I spend a lot of time in other cities. Let’s just say Market St in SF has taken a turn for the worse, and as our building there has tried to contain labor costs, night doorman went by the wayside. Not a great situation, and it pains me to say that as I am fairly progressive. My husband and I were horrified to see someone pull down their pants a do a number two right outside our building as we were walking up.

As of 2 hours ago it appears F train stabbings have become a weekly event.

@mcr sorry to hear that! I love SF, that's too bad
But like much of California it seems to be struggling. SF especially...These days I prefer to visit Sebastopol when out West.

I'm not opposed to carrying a gun if needed, though conceiled carry in NYC is difficult. I think 30 must have been packing a 38 special back in the day ; )

When you were walking around Bond Street in 84, You would have found me at CBGB's hanging out and performing. We had all types, my peroxide haired girlfriend, whom I married, turned out to have parents in the entertainment/theatre worlds. You wouldn't have guessed that if you crossed paths with her on the Bowery sporting a mohawk! One of those people your sister would have told you to avoid eye contact with!

This is probably the only legal thing in NYC for self defense Others such is kitty key Chain and small pocket knife will require you to have a lot of guts to actually use them.

https://www.amazon.com/Unbreakable-Walking-Stick-Umbrella-Standard-handle/dp/B00C2TI14E

Actually either a PPK or heavily modded S&W 39.

I think I understand a bit more about where you're coming from 30. And for the most part I still don't agree with it. I can't imagine you think that the New York that we knew in the late 70s and early 80s could possibly return. However it appears your thesis is that if we see even an incremental reversion, many of the new breed of New Yorkers whom have grown accustomed to Greenwich Connecticut type conditions, will flee. This will ultimately worsen the fiscal position of the city, and we'll see this cataclysmic decline that you seem to imagine.

Nah, I just don't see it. It took a long time to get where we're at, and I think it would take a long time to undo what has been achieved. Ups and downs? Certainly, however not the thunderdome.

@mcr I agree with you about Paris, I also love the city! I've been fortunate to be able to spend quite a bit of time there over the years. We luckily missed the heat wave in July, we were there for two weeks. Paris has a much bigger crime problem, infrastructure problem etc than New York. And it certainly hasn't made it less desirable. And let's not even talk about Rome!

And to get back to the subject of this thread, I've never felt threatened in Chicago. But then again I've never wandered around the south side neighborhoods. I feel like Chicago's an extremely livable City, certainly significantly less hectic than New York. It's just never been my cup of tea.

I am from the midwest, and Chicago does nothing for me, although my brother would never live anywhere else. On the crime front, an interesting anecdote: My niece went on an exchange trip to Australia, and when she and another friend who went on the trip wanted one of their Australian friends to come to the U.S., the Australian's parents said okay as long as they met somewhere other than Chicago because the parents were too afraid to let their daughter visit Chicago because of the crime reputation. My brother lives in Hinsdale (generic "Happy Land" FFS), and we could not stop laughing. The girls ended up taking a trip to LA - so much safer?

Using what money?
https://ny.curbed.com/2019/12/9/20998554/new-york-infrastructure-transportation-projects-unfinished

Don't forget my personal favorite: https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2018/10/12/no-funding-or-timeline-to-close-gaps-on-28-blocks-of-the-east-river-greenway/

Just wait until 2nd Ave subway and East River Greenway are complete; then all those Sutton Place/Beekman Place haters will see. Everyone thinks of these neighborhoods are neighborhoods of the past, but they are mistaken: These are the neighborhoods of the future! (and unfortunately maybe always will be). Hoping by the time we retire to Beekman Place the city will have it all figured out.

Mr. & Mrs. MCR in their amenity laden Beekman Place apartment of the future:
https://youtu.be/5DxDEoDojJ4

Ha! I did love the Jetsons growing up, second probably only to Get Smart. Came very close to naming one of our dogs Rastro. Still, I am going to dream of walking my dogs on the East River Greenway before hopping on the Second Ave subway to meet up with friends in a more happening part of the City.

The city really is an elephant, isn't it? so much of each of your outlooks seems based on where you live.
And over here on the Upper West Side, the forecast is at least slightly gloomy. The extractive economy is fraying our social fabric faster than the progressives (or can I say "we progressives"?) can fix it. A band of just-barely-teenagers killing a teenage newcomer to the city over a purse in the shadow of a $20 billion institution certainly feels like a reversion.

Unfortunate penalty for electing De Blasio twice. It seems police knew about the teenagers mugging people beforehand but chose not to do anything about it due to their age. Of course, liberals will believe that the kids were framed once everything has calmed down - there will be a movie made.

Unfortunate penalty of the PC culture at Columbia. Although the advice "don't go into Morningside Park after dark" used to be standard issue to all new students, today it's considered racist.

Why can’t Columbia have their security patrol morning side park? Probably will need 10-12 total employees so that 3 can be on duty between 5am and midnight. They have enough for money.

Apparently Columbia's answer to potential violent crime is to have 2 students with walkie talkies available to escort students.

BTW Columbia Public Safety Officers do not carry firearms, nor do they have police powers.

Finishing the East River greenway will have to wait on redoing the already adequate portions.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/escr/vision/vision.page

It's not unheard of for Columbia students to get on the 2/3 instead of the 1/9, get off at 116th and Lenox, be completely disoriented, and end up in Morningside Park.

I remember when most people would take an 8 to 15 block walk around the park rather than a 1 block walk through it after dark. You have to wonder what's going to happen after this incident and also how will this effect sales around the park which used to be extremely difficult due to the park's rep and lately people seem to have forgotten about.

ChasingWamus,
That's only going to cost a billion and a half dollars. You have to wonder how much public land is going to be sold off below market price to pay for it.

Maybe it was better back in the day when you were regularly reminded simply walking down the street below Morningside that you were in a less-safe area and acted accordingly.

Columbia can hire off-duty policemen.

George, I think certain long-standing Harlemites have found it racist that the policing in the park gets stronger whenever there's a white victim. In theory, if having the park safe is a goal, then it's a goal for the entire neighborhood. But yes I agree with you and 30 that more people will avoid the park if they hadn't been avoiding it already -- remember that Bob Lederer, who was beaten up by several kids in the spring, was attacked during the day.

Thought many blacks complain about too much policing in their neighborhoods. Remember water dousing.

Ali, Would you say that crime rate in public housing and surrounding areas is higher than other areas? If so, do you think public housing should be moved to far away places in the city with heavy policing?

300, I wouldn't move public housing; I think having it side-by-side with wealthier neighborhoods creates an environment where all the kids can go to school together, and the wealth of the community can help bootstrap the poorer kids. (At our school's book fair -- and I've been told that some variety of this happens every year -- we had a kid say, "I've never had a book of my very own before.") I would make Columbia pay more taxes to the community though.

I don't intend to get into a political debate but I do want to offer a few thoughts that people can take or leave.

1) I don't think it is fair to assume that neighborhoods with a high population of racial minorities would prefer fewer police. I don't view the actions of a small group of individuals were throwing water at police as being indicative of a broader view of a community. I do think that many communities dominated by racial minorities have very complicated views towards police for a variety of reasons (e.g., fear of police violence, concerns of disrespect, concerns regarding whether the police motivations of building a community v. incarcerating a community), and if their underlying concerns about policing were addressed then I think that most communities would very much welcome a strong police presence particularly from police officers who are part of that community.

2) I think that the current situation in parts of Manhattan of having public housing projects directly next to multi-million dollar homes is not ideal. I think it creates a sense of resentment and further amplifies the feeling of haves and have-nots, particularly for young people in those housing projects who are forced with an hourly reminder of their relative wealth. I am conflicted as to how to best address that situation given that people currently have their homes in these housing projects and I do not look to create an "out of sight, out of mind" situation, but I think that NY needs to look at it and consider developing housing projects elsewhere and eventually reducing the existing housing projects.

3) Somewhat related to my point #1 and #2, I think that the city has done a terrible job from a master planning perspective in terms of encouraging working class development in the appropriate areas + incentivizing building housing for working class communities. We will be a better city if we can incentivize housing development in the outer boroughs so that police, firefighters, MTA workers, etc. can live within the city limits rather than in LI, NJ, etc.

4) Related to my point #3, I think that the city has done a terrible job incentivizing business growth in NY and all of these issues relate to jobs and the types of jobs that people have. I don't know whether Amazon was the right answer, but I do believe that NY needs to become more business-friendly if it wants to be a better community for all NYers. In order to provide more opportunities for the young people I'm referencing in #2, we need to create more types of business in NY.

Ali, I fully agree that Columbia and NYU should pay more local taxes (based on endowment size and land usage) or at least have their own security in the neighborhood. How about Columbia start a school K-12 in their proximity to serve the community?

TeamM, Community leaders in NYC poor neighborhoods do not make statements appreciating police work. That is what really drives the policing. When a community has high crime rate, some innocent people also get unnecessary frisking etc. There is no way to avoid this collateral damage. I do not see the community leaders encouraging community to take responsibility to address the high crime rate - famous “missing dads” comment for Obama for which he took a lot of heat and backed off.

TeamM,
Re:2, in most cases which was there first, the public housing project or the new developments with multi-million dollar condos? I think in the vast majority of cases the public housing project was there first. Over the past 30 years we have seen tons of people move into "hip" and "emerging" neighborhoods and then complain about and want to change the character of that neighborhood. From Soho where people illegally moved into lofts without AIR Certificates and then complain about the noise, mess, etc being made by their artists neighbors producing art, to the Way West Village where people moved from the UES and then made ridiculous claims about how dangerous is was (like that there were drug dealers roaming the streets with pitbulls which had their vocal chords removed so you couldn't hear them coming), to Harlem where new residents made noise complaints about the Me Softer truck playing its jingle, to Inwood, Washington Heights and sever Brooklyn neighborhoods complaining about record stores which had speakers outside playing music which was going on for decades to an Asian massage parlor on East 10th St which has been in operation for almost a decade, is in a small commercial building, has no neon sign or guys out front handing out flyers or Hawking,

NYPD/9th Precinct has known about them from the get go, they only advertise in the type of places people looking for this type of establishment look, but as soon as people started moving into the Korean Deli replacing Condo next door where the cheapest current listing is $6.5 million, the City is suing to shut them down.

http://fathers.com/statistics-and-research/the-extent-of-fatherlessness/

30, When the city is collecting taxes at the new going rate, new residents have a right to ask for quality of life improvements. After all, a big chunk of taxes are being spent on serving people who do not pay that much in taxes as in public housing residents.

So I guess then in the case of the East Village you would tell the whiny Condo owners to STFU because the small commercial building is paying $11,000 a month in taxes and the the Condo is paying $15,000 while using a ton more city services?

In the case of Soho how much more in taxes are the non-AIR people paying in taxes than the Certified Artists one floor above them?

How much more in RE taxes are the renters paying in Bushwick than the Music Stores they are complaining about? Or the tenants in Harlem complaining about the Mr Softee truck?

Let me guess: now that Extell has built 1 Manhattan Sq you think we should evict everyone within the 20 square blocks of public housing surrounding it because all those fatherless families are what's preventing Extell from selling and paying all those......... Oh, wait....... close to ZERO Real Estate Taxes for the next quarter century (while needing millions of dollars a year in city services). I guess it's a good thing Extell said they are specifically barring any single mothers from the building.

So what is the annual spending by NYC on people living in housing project near 1 Manhattan square (school, policing , free housing, part of medical bills, net of taxes including local income taxes paid by the residents? How does that compare to renters in 1 Manhattan Square. Most of them are paying city income taxes even if the owners do not pay real estate taxes. The neighborhood will get more amenities, business revenues and jobs due to people moving in to 1 Manhattan Square and eventually the real estate taxes will be paid. There is clearly value to that.

Btw, Columbia and Barnard have separate security departments. Larger points stand. Sad sad sad.

https://youtu.be/lYs46BxweEU

30, That is funny. Thank you.

On a more serious note, I know may old time New Yorkers do not like the fabric of neighborhoods to change. Unfortunately, to support to growth NYC budget, gentrification and new condos are essential and people who pay more taxes are very vocal and should be. They are simply trying to get the laws enforced which weren’t before as in 10th st massage parlor. Of course one may question whether some of the laws on the books should exist at all.

Subsidized housing is not free. Residents pay a percentage of their income for rent.

How many do not work are solely dependent on govt aid for income? And how much they pay vs market price? You will find that it is no more than 25 percent of market rent recouped. Actual expenses may be higher that market rent will suggest due to city inefficiency.

Perhaps we should just tear them all down and sell the land to developers. It will increase values and eventually in Real Estate Tax collection. And how bad would it really hurt NYC if the homeless population rose from 62,000 to almost half a million?

You can obviously build public housing in cheaper and further away locations accessible by subway.

Like Newark?

For once Blas did something right.

J/K. In Chicago they tried putting all the poor in highly concentrated areas. In the Robert Taylor homes, out by Comiskey Park, some 95% of the population was on the dole. It turned out that concentrating poverty all in one place was no better than having pockets of poor people in mixed-income neighborhoods.

I'm so tired of spending half an hour composing posts with details responses and then happiness board just eat them. Fortunately a better alternative is on the horizon.

Summary:
Willets Point destroyed hundreds small businesses, huge loss in tax collections, favored billionaires given free options to develop, why not public housing there (close to subway line)
Hudson Yards got gerrymandered EB-5 Zone syphoning off funds for incensed beneficiaries
Annual 421a benefits = $4 billion, annual NYCHA operating budget = $3.4 billion.

What is the NPV of taxes from Hudson Yards ignoring the additional economic activity generated from building construction, tourism, and increased high quality office space?

George, One of my friends from minority community in Chicago believes that crime has increased as housing voucher program spread bad elements into all neighborhoods rather than keeping it concentrated. I have no way to verify that but thought will throw it out there.

But one could argue that Hudson Yards has much more added value, especially long term. Housing projects have, IMHO, destroyed generations of people. Isolating minorities into essentially 'ghettos' is not a solution to poverty. However this is a very lengthy discussion that encompasses many different aspects. And perhaps wasn't the point you were trying to make 30.

Since it seems you've both done the economic analysis you should be able to tell us how much Hudson Yards is currently paying in Real Estate Taxes?

The point I'm trying to make is simple:
It seems like the same people who think it's horrible that the city spends a nickel on the less affluent have no problem justifying spending an unlimited amount for the benefit of billionaires not matter how many times it's been proven the alleged benefits which were promised in return turned out to be illusory.

30, You are just ignoring the NPV of Hudson Yards real estate taxes question.

Are you ignoring my response
"Since it seems you've both done the economic analysis you should be able to tell us how much Hudson Yards is currently paying in Real Estate Taxes?"

That is just avoidance.