Covid 19

If any of you happen to be using the Quest lab at 26th st & 7th Ave for blood work I'm suggesting you try another location. My Dr told me today the third floor of that building which has a vein/circulatory clinic was the incubator for eighteen corona infections. He was in that building previously but has since moved his office to a new location.

My PCP is in that building.

I strongly advise that you call him/her and get an update.

To everybody that thought I was insane a few months ago, here's a copy of a mass email I just got from our management co:

The Board of the Coop is discussing temporary changes regarding building staff shifts, in particular that of the doorman, in light of recent developments throughout the city and the mandatory curfew that is in place. Hours and coverage may be shifted to allow building staff to travel in compliance with current restrictions.
In addition, the Coop has taken the following measures:
The Coop has hired the temporary services of a security company to join the doorman in the lobby to provide additional security.
The windows of the commercial spaces have been covered with plywood as a protective precaution.
The keys have been removed from the KeyLink system.
A new deadbolt (cylinder) lock has been installed on the front door of the building. This lock is in addition to the existing lock on the interior door.
The Board has decided to shut down the elevator at 11:00 PM but reserving the option to shut it down earlier if we feel it is in the best interest of resident safety.
At this time, we encourage people to lock their apartment doors and strongly encourage everyone to stay indoors. In the interest of safety, and until further notice, we ask that you please come down to the lobby to get your food and grocery deliveries so as to not allow any additional people into the building.
We will continue to keep you apprised on this matter as the situation develops.
***************************************************************************************************
They broke in and robbed our 7/11 last night. I saw them, called 911. It took an hour for the cops to show up. DM said the cops apologized but NYC got 200k 911 calls last night. I brought up my crowbar today from storage and hid most of my cash and important paperwork but left enough stuff around so it seemed like it was the normal amount I kept at home. I am VERY RELIEVED that we have a guard downstairs. Once they run out of stores they will turn to the rest of a building. We need national guard presence.

stache, what neighborhood are you in? I live by Union Square and saw that the 7-Eleven on Broadway got hit pretty hard last night. Is that your building? The corridor Broadway from Houston Street up to 14th St. seems to get hit pretty hard by the looters.

My firm (boutique investment bank) went 100% work from home starting in mid-March, an experiment widely viewed as successful. My firm also deferred all bonuses until 2021 which a) reduces my 2020 income by around 70% and b) potentially signals an insolvency problem. Wish me luck!

I have temporarily relocated my family to our second home (we rent in the city). The primary reason I was in NYC was to be close to work. Every month in the city we are paying $8k in rent, $4k in child care, $500 for parking, high city taxes...all of these costs **go away** if we leave. de Blasio wants to shut down my son's school and we are fearful for our youngest who didn't get a spot in Pre-K due to exceeding income thresholds and the school commissioner makes my family feel unwelcome.

I am a free market guy who believes capital flows towards the most productive areas. And right now it's clear that a lot of companies can dramatically lower costs by embracing work-from-home for white collar workers. Due to these economic forces it is INEVITABLE that many more people will work-from-home permanently. And this is a massive headwind for real estate prices in NYC because 1) it means workers can relocate to lower cost areas and 2) it means reduced demand for office leases.

I love the city but we never bought because I thought prices were too high, and I still think they are OVERVALUED. My wife has a year left on her work contract but at this moment our plan is to relocate to our 2nd home permanently at some point in the future. I have chimed in on these boards occasionally to discuss mostly macro themes; today i wanted to share an anecdote and my personal story about why NYC is becoming untenable for my family. We are privileged and I cannot imagine the challenges faced by those less fortunate.

I poured money into the stock market starting in 2009 but refused to buy a home in NYC due to being overvalued. Today I am more bearish than ever on NYC real estate prices. Blessings to everyone.

Tom, we may be brothers from the same mother. We have the exact same issues. We aren't returning until fall at the earliest bc Cuomo shut all the summer day care options, which are essential to our family. So we found options elsewhere starting next week. If schools don't open in the fall pretty much the way they were open pre-covid, we may have to stay away even longer. The current plan is that we'll spend 6 months away, and at some point, you start to fall into other habits that don't involve being in Manhattan. Already friendships are forming away from NYC.

The good news, if there is any, is that it should be significantly less competitive getting your kid into kindergarten if you stay.

Tom, good luck to you. I think everything will work out for you. You strike me as being a pretty bright person.
lrschober, I am in Chelsea.

Yet another story about ppl leaving NYC. No mention of crazy and unaffordable real estate as a motivating factor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/nyregion/coronavirus-leaving-nyc.html

I feel like all of 30yrs’ premonitions are coming true. It is definitely darker! NY is in for a rough patch for sure, and I think Nada’s statement elsewhere that once the families are forced to make a move, they are lost for 10 yrs. However, for the die hard New Yorkers, maybe their neighborhoods of choice will finally go on sale. I won’t believe the doom and gloom until I see the West Village go on sale.

I'm getting a little tired of working from home. My group has been fine so far, but I don't see this as realistic for us in perpetuity.

I enjoy spending time at the beach or in the mountains, but it never takes long to remember how much I enjoy living in NYC. Obviously the things that make it worth the hassle are on hiatus right now, but that's not forever.

My cleaners called the other day and told me I had until June 15 to get my stuff because they're closing for good at that time. That was a bummer.

@ George

Did you read the article? I did, and thought it provided fairly balanced views between those who were leaving AND those who had no intention of doing so. Certainly wouldn't describe it as simply an article about "ppl leaving NYC."

Right now I think "big Real Estate" isn't helping by refusing to acknowledge the situation. Most retail is getting close to zero breaks and this will exacerbate closings. I'm seeing many listings coming on (or back on) the market at or even higher than pre-COVID-19 prices. I can't even use my usual Peter Cooper Village/Stuyvesant Town to judge any longer:
Last June after the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act of 2019 passed the number of available listings quickly fell from well over 200 to just over 100 (side note: At first they claimed they were just going to warehouse vacated below market units, but after public backlash changed their tune and said they wouldn't. But the number of listings didn't change and one such unit directly above mine has been vacant for close to a year so I think they are probably lying to get the public off their backs and banking on the law being changed one way or another). In March, the number of available units was back over 200. 2 days ago the number was 480. Yesterday they removed the counter (reminds me over REBNY forcing listing systems to suspend "Days on Market") and only 236 listings appear on the website. They also instituted the 2nd substantial price increase in a few weeks. Now personally I don't believe they rented 244 units overnight and they are simply manipulating the data. It's really too bad (for me) because that used to be a valuable resource in evaluating the rental market. But I do think it shows the denial of market conditions and thinking the market can be easily manipulated.

Look at Sam Zell's buildings. They adjust prices daily, do not negotiate, and out the full inventory out. The one issue is that they give incentives that don't show up on Streeteasy.

@30Y I was wondering whether COVID-19 affected the brain, because I noticed the same thing. I'm seeing new units coming on market above comps from early 2020 before the shutdown. This is either massive optimism or massive delusion. You can probably guess where I stand on that.

@MCR NYC has already been slowly losing people since 2017. COVID-19 will likely accelerate the trend, but people leaving the area isn't a new phenomenon. I think the real danger here is the massive hit the pandemic has had on NYC's finances. This could start a vicious cycle where services have to be cut / taxes raised, which triggers more people to leave, which then shrinks the tax base, which then leads to services being cut / taxes raised, etc.

Got this email from NYU recently, so if you have an NYU Dr you can request the Novid antibody test by sending him/her a message through their Mychart system. I'm going to make an appointment for the test next week. : )

NYU Langone Health
Fri, May 29, 9:02 PM (8 days ago)
to me

NYU Langone Health

Your NYU Langone Health doctors are available for in-person appointments and procedures, including annual physicals and routine screenings. All of our doctors are also able to order the COVID-19 antibody test.
When to Make an In-Person Appointment
Some circumstances that require an in-person appointment might be:
Patients who need their annual physical
Patients who want to receive COVID-19 antibody testing

The Wall Street Journal: Coronavirus Antibody Tests: Facts, Myths and Everything You Need To Know.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-antibody-tests-facts-myths-and-everything-you-need-to-know-11591294026?mod=flipboard

Still a bit confusing how accurate these antibody tests are.

I'm hoping I can get an Elisa test.

So cases are exploding all over the country, however it would appear that treatment has improved and severity of cases lessened? Even without a vaccine or any absolutely proven therapeutics.

Certainly everybody was overwhelmed and flying a bit blindly initially, but it would appear now that it may have been a mistake to be putting so many people on respirators so early? This is a question not a statement.

Keith, NY is certainly in a much better shape now. 60-70k daily tests and only 600-700 positive. It is also possible that most vulnerable got it early and there are more precautions around nursing homes etc. And we didn’t even know about this one.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-16-dexamethasone-reduces-death-hospitalised-patients-severe-respiratory-complications#

Perhaps BK can add color on Corona from a medical point of view. Thank you.

They put them on respirators because they didn't know what else to do. Things are getting better but we are still in the Wild West as far as this virus is concerned. I've decided I'm pretty much staying home until there's a vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection

NYC is different things to varying people with numerous and diverse situations.
Cycles, whether economic or otherwise have always toggled between attraction and repulsion for living in the city.
But the one constant attribute of NYC whether seen as positive or negative in a particular cycle was density of people.
Unfortunately, this contant attribute is what makes Covid so lethal for NYC above just about every other city on earth.
And quite frankly we are lucky. If Im permitted an insensitive moment to those in the hospital or worse, we are so lucky to have a pandemic with a mortality rate this low.
Will we learn from it and make necessary adjustments?
My god will the city start pressure washing our 100 year old subway stations on a routine basis?
Maybe new building code is born for ventilation systems? Pumping ozone in commercial buildings between 2 and 3 am to sanitize, or maybe hvac systems requiring a UV light system.
Adversity foments progress....evolution.

When I start seeing fire sales at Related's Caledonia building, then the end is surely coming. :)

300
So funny you posted that article, frankly I dont know why it took that long. In the earlier days of Covid(April maybe?) a nurse friend of mine posted that viral video of the NYC doctor talking about how the disease acts more like a blood disease, and similar to what happens to mountain climbers, high altitude sickness.
My first reaction was, "Oh they should give patients dex." Now I knew Dex was short for some kind of steroid, but thats it. I saw that mountain climbing movie over a dozen times when Bill Paxton plays the evil business mogul, hoarding all the "dex" from the other climbers when they are trapped on the mountain.
If a putz like me could think of it then, I dont understand why it took the medical community so long.

And for those tempted by some active bars they walk by to grab a drink, to have sorely missed social interactions, you may want to reconsider. I noticed people quite lax with their masks and social distancing particularly at these places as I walk by.

Mortality rate is low, as is hospitalization, but give this a read and see if its worth increasing your odds.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/What-they-don-t-tell-you-about-surviving-15347792.php?

Odds of dying in a traffic accident in your lifetime are 1 in 103. No need to ride a motorcycle with no helmet and tempt the math.

I hope everyone is stocking up on food. I think this fall/winter is going to get nasty. Also has anyone else noticed inflation is kicking in? I'm seeing price stickers placed over existing stickers. I haven't seen this since the mid 1970's.

History repeats itself -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_plague_of_1900%E2%80%931904

Truth, So much is indeed unknown about Covid. Hopefully the death rate continues to be low despite increase in cases in CA, TX, FL.

Authorities in the Australian city of Melbourne have confined people living in nine housing estate tower blocks because of an outbreak of coronavirus.
The 3,000 or so residents of the blocks are being told not to leave their homes for any reason for at least five days.
At least 23 cases of infection were found on two estates in recent days.
The state of Victoria recorded 108 new cases on Saturday, its second-biggest daily increase. Australia as a whole has seen 104 coronavirus deaths.
There have been at least 8,362 infections nationwide.
Victoria State Premier Daniel Andrews said the latest figures there were a very real concern to everybody.
The city is putting "stage three" restrictions on 12 suburbs. People there will only be able to leave the house for four reasons: work or education, exercise, medical care or care-giving, and shopping for supplies.
But the nine tower blocks in Flemington and North Melbourne face a "hard lockdown".
According to Victoria's Minister for Housing, Richard Wynn, some of the state's most vulnerable people live in the nine towers, and mental health and drug and alcohol support will be offered.
The towers, he said, were characterised by having common lifts and common walkways, and they presented an "acute challenge going forward".
Mr Andrews said that it should take at least five days to test everyone in the towers.
"We are extremely concerned that there are many hundreds of people in these towers who have already been exposed to the cases that we've found and possibly to cases that exist and that we haven't found," said Deputy Chief Health Officer Annaliese van Diemen.
"This is not just a matter of 23 to 30 odd people this is a matter of many hundreds who have already been exposed and who may already be incubating."
Acting Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said a "new phase of the pandemic" was under way in Australia.
"For the first time in Australia it's an actual complete lockdown," he said, as quoted by the Sydney Morning Herald.
"That will be a very difficult but important step. We know from previous pandemics… that it was a tower block [in Hong Kong] which was part of the major spread of that Sars coronavirus."
How big a setback is this for Australia?
For months the country had felt optimistic about containing Covid-19, then the resurgence of the virus in Melbourne put those efforts at a critical stage.
While the infection numbers remain below Australia's peak in March, what concerns the authorities is that local transmission is now the key source of infections.
Previously, most cases came from travellers returning from overseas.
Other Australian states dramatically slowed or eradicated the virus but in Victoria private security guards overseeing hotel quarantines reportedly broke the rules.
Mr Andrews described cases of illegal socialising between staff, listing examples of workers sharing a cigarette lighter or car-pooling. Local media also reported claims of sex between guards and quarantined travellers.

^ Above from BBC news -

I have now seen two of the listings I was following that went into contract pre-Covid come back on the market. Has anyone compiled statistics on the number of Jan/Feb 2020 contracts that have fallen through?

I have now seen two of the listings I was following that went into contract pre-Covid come back on the market. Has anyone compiled statistics on the number of Jan/Feb 2020 contracts that have fallen through?

I had asked Noah if we could do this, but not so far.

Given that I am at 30% in my small sample size so far, I will be interested to see the number when all is said and done if UD is able to calculate this stat down the road.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-super-spreader-woman-lift-infections-china-heilongjiang-a9615886.htm

^ Sorry this link does not work.

Woman unwittingly infected at least 71 people with coronavirus after using the lift in her tower block, researchers believe.
The traveller returned to her home in Heilongjiang province, China, from a trip to the United States on 19 March – eight days after the area last reported any new Covid-19 cases.
She did not have any symptoms of the disease and tested negative for the virus, but self-isolated at home alone anyway, researchers wrote in the Chinese Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
The woman had not taken the lift with anyone else – but her downstairs neighbour used it at some point after her.
On 29 March the downstairs neighbour’s mother and her boyfriend, who had visited her flat, attended a party with another group of people. Then, on 2 April, one of that group suffered a stroke and was taken to hospital; however, at this point there was no obvious connection between him and the traveller and he was not tested for coronavirus.
Researchers later concluded that the traveller must have contaminated the lift in her building. Her downstairs neighbour is thought to have contracted the virus while using it, before infecting her mother and mother’s boyfriend when they visited her home. The couple then infected the stroke patient and his two sons at the party.
The two sons took it in turns caring for their father, who was moved to a different hospital on 6 April. The stroke patient and his sons all later tested positive and researchers discovered they had infected 28 people in the first hospital, including five nurses and one doctor. They went on to infect another 20 people in the second hospital.
The boyfriend of the downstairs neighbour’s mother displayed Covid-19 symptoms and became the first case in the cluster to test positive for the disease.

Do you really believe this story or “returned from US” casts some doubt?

Unfortunately, I would look to verify any information on COVID-19 from China before giving it any weight. Given their track record on the disease, you simply can't take anything from them at face value.

Unless I missed it, the story doesn’t say anywhere that the woman who travelled to US was tested positive for Corona or antibodies.

Right. Says she tested negative but does not say when.