UES Update

Mouse, I don’t think it gets any better here on out. I’ve been on record since the late summer guessing that the rental market was going to bottom this winter. For example:

https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/46029-expect-4-5mo-free-come-winter

With the vaccine and recent rental data, I now feel more confident in my guess. Basically, I think what we are seeing (and will continue to see) is a (partial) reversal of the very forces that led to the massive drop in rents. Lots of people will start coming back, driving up demand & rents. The migration is probably a trickle right now and will accelerate across the summer. However, owners are anticipating that and therefore more firm on price.

Still plenty of discounts in rentals.
https://streeteasy.com/3-bedroom-apartments-for-rent/ues/price:7000-10000%7Cbaths%3E=2?sort_by=sqft_desc

Mouse, some of us keep telling you that the market is stronger than you think it is and also strengthening, and yet you keep being surprised when you see evidence that we might be right... sigh.

If I had to guess, I would say in 3 months you'll see more inventory, but that rental prices might also be less favorable, so I'd basically grab what you like whenever you see it.

FWIW, I think the thread you're looking for is here:

https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/46134-3br-pricing-premium

ali r.
upstairs realty

I want 3 year rental in coop with a flexibility to leave after a year. Who cares about the coop owner who has to get re-approval for a new tenant which coop may or may not approve.

Depending on how vaccinations go, these mutations could throw a wrench into everything.

Markets ebb and flow. There were awesome deals in Dec. Now there are just darn good deals (by historic standards). They will still be around in summer.

I can easily find a dozen apartments I'd move to tomorrow if my lease were up and I knew I was staying in NYC another year. But unlike you, my geographic spread is more than a two-block radius.

Agree. There are still some pretty good deals still. However, these deals may be gone by summer. 2/3 months free will become 1 month free.

Headline rent is almost all that matters. 3 months free just means the rent is inflated. If you stay 3 years, a month free is the same as a 3% reduction in headline rent, or $9700 vs $10,000.

And prices are always a little stronger in the summer since the market is liquid and LLs don't worry about being without a tenant for months.

I would expect much of the rapid home price inflation that hit nationwide in 2020 due to ultra loose Fed money printing finally come to NYC when it is clear that the city is rebounding this summer/fall and people need to get back into offices. Average urban home prices nationwide were up 10% last year. NYC is not immune from those pressures, the market just needs to be pandemic de-risked. Average household savings skyrocketed during the pandemic and equities are pumped to the moon by the Fed, and Powell is set on continuing that policy. If I had to guess, I’d say the bottom is in here.

Mouse, when does your current lease end? I’m surprised that your current lease’s window does not have a hard stop. Or that you do not consider it as such.

Seems like everyone on SE is on the same side on this one. We might all be wrong, but it’s rare that we all are prognosticating essentially the same thing.

So I think the great deals in December were basically landlords saying "no one is going to rent my apartment in Dec/Jan" so they zeroed those rents out and the amortized rent was a lot lower -- if you were willing to move in Dec/Jan. Today, I think owners are saying "I can rent out in March, so I don't need to zero a couple of months rent" .

The bigger surprise to me is just the relative lack of good inventory for 3BR in UES.

Also worth saying, I do see many more listings of sales come on the market versus rentals. So this idea that it makes sene to rent and not buy is corroborated in the listing activity over the last 2 months (small datapoint, but doesn't strike me as a coincidence).

I am month-to-month.

I think it was more than just zeroing out Dec/Jan: that happens every year. In my estimation, winter rents are about 10% lower than summer rents for that reason normally. This year was just different: demand was simply not there like it normally is.

Mouse, There are 84 3 bed rooms or more with 2.5 baths or more on Streeteasy for UES search under $12.5k and most offering concessions. If your needs/taste are very specific, you have pay up or so stay where you are in Midtown. Prices are probably 20-30% lower in Midtown East .

Meanwhile, is the Upper East side really the place where all the cool kids are buying these days?

Bloomberg: Manhattan Luxury Homebuyers Make Upper East Side Cool Again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/manhattan-luxury-homebuyers-make-the-upper-east-side-cool-again

UES still remains very desirable due to schools private and public. Condos are indeed addressing the stuffy coop issue and Q line has made eastern part more attractive.

I thought cool kids were buying in Brooklyn...