Bidding wars in the suburbs & beyond (Part 7)

“This has forced people to rethink how they live, and what their relationship is with metropolitan areas,” offered Graham Klemm, president of Klemm Real Estate.

“When will it stop? It will stop when interest rates go up.”

https://therealdeal.com/2021/02/04/suburban-home-inventory-is-depleted-but-demand-rages/

"More optimistically, the federal government could bail out cities, speeding up what I’ve called the urban forest-fire effect. In that scenario, the pandemic pushes thousands of people out of expensive coastal cities, reducing the cities’ rent and housing costs, but those lower costs attract a new generation of immigrants and middle-class families to move back into the city, which leads to regrowth. Note, however, that both the optimistic and pessimistic cases involve a difficult period of transition."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/remote-work-revolution/617842/

In my line of work, I don’t see a “remote work revolution” ending well. Work-from-home in the sense of a day or two a week can be a productivity boost, as it allows people to concentrate without distractions. But I can see the productivity loss of not ever being in the same place accumulate more and more as the pandemic year has worn on. We have always made exceptions for people needing perma-ish remote work, but doing it as a broader change with each person in their personal favorite Nowhere seems bad for productivity.

I’m not saying people won’t try remote work in my industry, but rather that those who do will be at a competitive disadvantage. And in my type of work, the difference between cylinders firing at 80% rather than 100% seems like a difference between viability vs not.

In the meantime, resales market pulse went to 48 percent. Sure there are more listing to come in Feb/March and new developments with their high taxes and prices combo remain a hard sell and bears can hang their hats on that but it seems there are plenty of people who are not going to burbs. Perhaps many are only going as far as Brooklyn.

Many building management companies are doing work at home right now. I'll just say it's been less than ideal...

WFH depending highly on individual motivation and type of work. Team dynamics, exchange of creative ideas, and cohesive strong cultural are very difficult remotely. Then there is dating pool for single people. I also wonder if there are people who will WFH in NYC at least 1-2 days a week and thereby need bigger space. Essentially part of the demand shifting from commercial office space to residential space.

There will definitely be increased WFH from NYC, which will marginally increase demand lost to the burbs and beyond. But I think much of that is predicated on lower cost.

As part of that “more in NYC” demand, it’s not like I was particularly cramped in my old apt nor did I have any desire for more space, fancier digs, etc. It was the collapse of rental prices that got me to move.

Nada, Monthly cost for buying has come down due to lower financing rates and appx 5-10% lower prices in the last 2 years. So average Manhattan buyer can probably afford 10-15% more apartment with the same $ outlay.

Yep, agreed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/these-people-rushed-to-buy-homes-during-covid-now-they-regret-it-11613062856

Who could have possibly predicted that?

I didn't waive inspection contingency. Glad I didn't.

Meanwhile out in Bozeman:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/the-zoom-town-boom-in-bozeman-montana

>> One of the biggest problems facing residents is that there really is no other place for people to go. “This isn’t early 2000s Maricopa County or Las Vegas, where massive amounts of land were turned into housing,” says Martin Matsen, the city’s director of community development. That kind of sprawl isn’t really possible in Bozeman. The topography — wetlands, agricultural land that isn’t for sale, and adjacent federal land, which cover 29% of the state — hem in development.

No regrets here, but the place I bought upstate is my first time dealing with propane. I've always had the benefit of a nearby pipe full of natural gas, so it got a little nerve wracking when the propane delivery truck couldn't make it up the (unpaved, sloped, icy) driveway a couple of weeks ago.

After the second attempt I apologized to the wildlife and spread 400 lbs of calcium chloride, which did the trick.

The geothermal well driller is scheduled for April -- once that is online, the propane will only be used for running the grill and the generator, which means the delivery truck will be coming by only during nice weather and the bears won't have to worry about getting salt in their paws.

On a percentage basis, I wonder how many people left New York City due to covid?

I like Bozeman, but I think it takes a special person to live there full time.

About 5% if you believe MSM reports

5% in total may be about right, but its clearly demographically clustered on income/age/race.

Bottom 50% income that number is probably close to 0.
At the very top you have people with multiple properties just spending less time in NYC than usual.

Somewhere in the under-40s, entry level mass affluent income / young family level, especially with family outside NYC, I think the number is multiples of that. They can afford a smaller home than they want in NYC for their family if they both keep working & really hustle, but live really comfortably literally anywhere else. They were already questioning how they were going to keep it going as the kids get bigger, etc.

Plus a lot of post-college 22-25 years olds cleared out back to mom&dads because why pay rent? This is reflected in the “luxury rental” crash going on right now.

My Brooklyn condo, from observation and doorman gossip had closer to 10-20% leave the city.

From my own/my wife’s social & work circles quite a number of people left quite quickly in spring.. mostly fitting my entry level mass affluent profile, largely white but with Asians over represented for sure.

Just curious what financial parameters you would use to determine mass affluence in NYC, liquid net worth/ income.

I'd say $150K+ (2.5X the median HH income) is "mass affluent".

(Net worth in this crowd is all over the map, anywhere from low 7 figures to negative; doesn't make a great qualifier of social class IMO, unless as a reason to vault them to the next class up regardless of income. )

And I agree that the % of under-30 transplants who moved out is deep into the double-digits, as is the % of "mass affluent 30-45yo family of 3+".

The former will return when service jobs do (or simply be "refreshed" by the next generational cohort of adventure seekers). The latter were *probably* just an acceleration of latent plans rather than indicative of cultural shift, but nobody knows for certain.

I would say mass affluent average Manhattan buyer is family income $300k+. Call it buying 3.33x pre tax income apartment with average value of $1mm plus.

I’d say this-
Under-30s are coming back when the fun comes back. This could begin as soon as May/June at a limited level, but take till 2022++ to really kick into gear. I know my firms interns & college hires for summer are going to be remote again, so why would they waste money on rent? A lot of the “fun” part of being in NYC is closed for good until new businesses reopen post-vax.

The 30-45s are coming back when/if full time office M-F 9-5 comes back. This is no sooner than September and is going to be phased return. If there isn’t crystal clear messaging around city schools by June or so, people who have left are going to keep their kids elsewhere, and then pushback on being dragged back to office.

Plenty of companies announcing that hotelling/partial WFH/mixed environments are here to stay. Plenty of firms are just now getting around to giving out some WFH equipment stipends. My wife’s boss just built a home office in her second home after a year of being there..

You may end up with a different economic/cultural mix of people residing full time in the city and it will become more interesting if not materially any more affordable.

Re: accelerating people leaving who would have anyway as their start a family. Absolutely.
However I know lots of people who were never going to leave NYC, been here 15..20..30 years, but have left and I count myself amongst that group, though I left in the fall.

I know I am coming back.. I’m just not sure if I am in a rush to be front of the queue post-vax in September, or if I will stretch the WFH as long as I can to some point next year. Home is a lot nicer than being in office, and if if at home anyway, might as well be 4x larger for the price.

There were some people here at the end of last year predicting that everything would return to normal in spring. Not happening so far.

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/bidding-wars-came-roaring-back-in-january-223612

>> Competition began to wane toward the end of last year, as Covid-19 cases surged and the holiday season set in. But the lull is over, as the share of buyers who faced competing bids soared again in January, particularly for in-demand Sun Belt and West Coast cities, where listings are scarce, according to data from real estate company Redfin. About 56% of buyers faced off against a competing bid in January, an increase from 52.5% in December, according to the listing portal.

@George - agreed. Going to be a slow slow slog. Offices are not reopening yet so why would people move back?

The new consensus return target date people are getting at banks/funds is September.
A lot has to go right in terms of vax deliveries on time, jab rates increasing about 5x and no new surprises.

We’ve been at it for 2 months to get to ~14% dosed once.. still the only people I know gotten it are 85+ or PHDs of some sort (academia/hospitals have gotten supplies).

Also worth noting offices have to some degree been “shut down” and things are going to take some time to spin back up once the coast is clear.

Steve,
I remember you extrapolating most people getting vaccine in NYC to 2 years when the pace was 9k per day. Now the pace is 3x and we are still increasing vaccine production, delivery and administration pace. I can see the pace going nationally to 2mm+ jabs per day within a week of JNJ getting approved (call it early March). Of 330mn, 15 percent are kids under 16. So leaves 280mm. Appx 20 percent will choose not get vaccinated (crazy but we have them). That is 225mn. So if JNJ is approved soon, by July you would see 90 percent of the people who want vaccines getting it and people will start to complain about how they can’t get booster shots for new variants and how kids have not been vaccinated. So it will never be good enough for many people.

And it is not for any one specific in this thread, I do not see many media articles thankful to scientists, medical professionals and all other logistics professionals who have made it possible. I am very thankful to all of them and continue to be. Granted Govt funded it but so many Govt funded projects do not go anywhere.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-people-rushed-to-buy-homes-during-covid-now-they-regret-it-11613062856

Is this an NYC realtor shill piece or an accurate portrayal of a rush to buy homes outside of NYC that was short lived and tinged with buyers remorse?

Nada posted the same link above. There are people who buy houses in dumb ways whether during rushes or not, in Manhattan and in Nowhere. Look at the Charlie West discussion in another thread. Or the problems at 432 Park Ave.... and just about every new construction.

As for whether the rush was short-lived, the evidence is increasingly that it was not. See the Mansion Global article above saying that it continues this year.

Ha. We wouldn’t know till 2022. For now, resales market pulse in Manhattan remain pretty good at 49 percent and offices have not even reopened fully. It is also possible that both suburban and Manhattan Resales market are very strong due to lower rates and people wanting more space.

Oops, sorry I missed that earlier post.

@300 - I think we agree more than we don’t. Agreed I exaggerated on that 5x.
The scientists & pharma have done an awesome job and unsurprisingly government has fallen on its face.
It’s entirely plausible we get vax in enough arms for herd immunity by end of summer, we just need things to continue to go right for that to be the case.

As of this week we are a consistent 1.5M+ jabs/day, all the approved jabs take 2 shots.
If we take 42M jabs completed, your 225M target (I usually base my number in the 250-260M range).. 2x for the 2 jabs = 450M -42M jabs = 408M jabs to do.
Continuing at 1.5M/day gets us done by Christmas when you factor in immunity kicking in.
Depending on how fast we ramp up to higher rate-
3M/day gets us done by August~September.
4.5M/day gets us done by June-July
Etc.

Note Biden admin is managing expectations that they will have 100% of vax supply required by July.

My perspective is that so far in the pandemic so far the bad news has won, and if you assumed the best you got #@$@#ed.

Civilians don’t need masks. 6ft distancing is all you need. Flying is safe. Asymptomatic spread isn’t a thing. It will all go away once the spring weather hits. We will be fine without test&trace. There won’t be a second wave. Etc etc.

I hope for the best and plan for the worst. I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than plan for the best and be caught with my pants down.
I am looking to September and everything before that is a bonus.

The asinine articles I am seeing about “this one trick is why we might have herd immunity before Easter!” again are wishcasting.
I had friends in medicine arguing with me in January that I’d be able to get a vax by March (under-40, WFH, non-essential worker)... just rose tinted glasses.

Ah. You forgot JNJ is only one shot in your calcs and system can ramp up easily to 2.5mm jabs per day by the end of March / April post JNJ approval. Naturally all this is dependent on JNJ getting approval. There are still local level improvements to be made which I believe will be made and supply is not enough. But I tend to be an optimist on life and our capability as a Nation except for stock market. The latter has not been a good move in the long term.

And yes, we agree in most cases. I think your turn will come in June.

BTW, optimistic 300 in this case thinks once there is enough vaccine supply, there will be mass vaccinations arranged by private companies for their employees, and to generate goodwill. For now, they can't get the vaccine supply and it wouldn't be there till May even after JNJ approval soon.

4mm jabs per day in June with rose tinted glasses? May be.

Here is link to JNJ being able to supply 100mm doses by April. I am assuming they will get used by the end of May.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/jj-plans-to-have-100-million-vaccines-for-americans-by-spring-board-member-says.html

>> My perspective is that so far in the pandemic so far the bad news has won, and if you assumed the best you got #@$@#ed.

IMO, this is about as good an outcome as I ever expected. But probably that’s because I possess a modicum of sense: I get my info from the experts (epidemiologists) rather than idiots who blather without knowing anything. What (the broad consensus of) epidemiologist were saying in March and more so as time went on:

- 1 year to vaccine best case. Worst case, never.
- Test & trace works if you do it. Won’t if you don’t.
- It’s unlikely to fizzle away on its own like other recent diseases

When real estate markets get this heated, what makes people feel so compelled to buy? Yet when markets are falling, real estate is selling significantly below previous recent highs, a majority of buyers become scared and don't think it's a good time to purchase?

I bought some real estate in Florida in 2011, I had some friends at the time that bought at the peak, walking away from their homes. Now the same people who had been renting since giving up their keys, are trying to buy into a bubbling market. If they would have just held on, they'd be in good shape right now. Nobody at the time could see prices doubling. One of the homes I purchased more than doubled (Palm Beach County).

You would think it would be the opposite? Prices shoot up with excessive demand, you take a breather and exercise extreme caution. When prices go on sale and demand falls you get out there and buy yourself a home.

Keith
TBG

CNBC: Bidding wars are off the charts, as home listings fall to a record low.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/bidding-wars-for-homes-are-off-the-charts-as-listings-fall-to-record-low.html

Most people are horrible at timing markets. That said, residential real estate is somewhat illiquid and has very high closing costs (~10% in NYC) relative to almost any other asset except maybe precious gemstones. It's easier to buy into a rising housing market because you know that if you need to sell (1) you can do so relatively easily and quickly and (2) the time to recover your transaction costs is shorter. People are more averse to losses than they are happy with gains. (I'm going to ignore the possibility of becoming a landlord to limit losses while carrying a unit of housing.)

This was basically the math that I did in Nowhere. The round-trip transaction costs are about 6.3%, being 6% to the realtor and 0.3% for title, survey, recording fees, etc. No legal fees, transfer tax or stamp duty. It was obvious when I bought last year that the market was going robustly higher, so I figured that the increased values would cover the transaction costs within a matter of a year, after which we could get out what we put in. Instead it looks like we're up about 25% right now.

We could have done the same trade any time in the prior 12 years and would have been under water for 12 years. When the market started going, it was time to go with it.

If my memory is correct people who crowded into the market in previous bubbles wound up getting burned pretty bad in places like new jersey, Florida, Las Vegas, Arizona etc.

Taking a market that I work in, NYC, you did better buying in 2010 11 12 13, than you did if you waited until 2014-2015. Many buyers remain nervous early on, then piled into the market in 2014 and 2015...

I'm not sure if it's so much trying to time markets, I'm just talking about the mentality of people ramping up the purchase process when prices are making new highs versus lows. At least the majority of buyers I was working with and currently work with do not need to sell to buy.

2006, 2007 was by far the craziest market I had ever experienced in NYC. People were essentially flipping apartments after 6 months for pretty hefty gaines. We had salespeople in our office pitching properties in West Palm Beach, one in particular was called the Slade, I believe related built it. Three agents in my office bought there, all took a bath.

I like buying good quality stocks that are rising rapidly, because when the fundamentals go the other way I can push a button and get rid of it for free. As you point out you can't do that with real estate, so I prefer buying real estate when the market is falling, I might not be picking the perfect bottom but I know it's cheaper than it was at some recent point in the past. Or perhaps is your experience George, getting in at the beginning of a rising market.

Ideally you're buying a home not purely as an investment, so even if the market goes south, you can continue to enjoy it, utilize it until the market corrects in the other direction, which it eventually will. Those that get burned are the ones that panic and sell or the ones that are forced to sell due to unfortunate timing of life and market conditions. I guess the problem in New York City is for many people the hold time is too short, where is you refer to owning your property for 40 years in nowhere.

Just my two cents.

Keith

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/opinion/coronavirus-leave-new-york.html

I’m good: I didn’t file a change-of-address for my Montauk summer rental.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall-street-a-listers-fled-to-florida-many-now-eye-a-return/

I think moving to Montauk would be a lot less traumatic for many New Yorkers than moving full-time to south Florida. After the company I started began essentially running itself with the assistance of 3 very capable people in NYC, for a variety of reasons I moved to Florida in 2012 after 32 years in New York City. Although I do go back and forth, I'm the head of a successful (disruptive) real estate brokerage/team. Yup, you can do 40 to 50 seamless deals a year with some simple technology and smart people working for you.

Being down here for the season is one thing, lots of charity events, social gatherings and of course amazing weather. However unless you're a lizard, the heat and humidity the other 6 months can be a bit much for many. Although most truly wealthy people don't live down here full time.

I was way ahead of the curve on the work from home model : ) and that's an entire subject of its own. Work from home may sound great, but I think for many people it's going to be very difficult. I have a number of friends in tech, engineering who can easily work from home and don't. They look at the office as a refuge... However for me, it suits my personality well and in many ways my company grew exponentially as I simply focused on clients, and left the day to day mechanics of showing real estate to others. So it will be interesting to see how this great experiment pans out over the next few years.

When you're mentally ready to move to the suburbs or the country it can certainly be a great change that many people embrace. However if you would have asked me to move to Florida or New Jersey or Colorado 20 years ago, leaving New York City, I would have said you're crazy! And I know I would have been miserable. Being forced to move or moving out of fear may have some unintended results. But either way, you have to give it time, minimum 6 months, that's why when all this was going on I was suggesting to clients to please rent and see how it fits.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

@inonada
Nothing like reading the perspective of a childless 5-year NYC transplant declaring himself the one true New Yorker eh?

Still early enough that everything is novel, new things to explore, the annoyances and responsibilities haven't quite piled up.. friends haven't started to leave permanently.

Also too early to have identified the limits of growth/advancement to his station in NYC which tend to be more rigid than other parts of the country because you ares surrounded by the global 1% who are ready to outbid you on food/events/housing/etc.

Government incompetence & obnoxious neighbors may still be annoying in Nowhere, but they don't touch you with the intensity&frequency they do in NYC..

Give it a decade or two and see how he feels about living in his 1BR in Crown Heights?

My most New York Or Nothing friend left just before the pandemic after 15 years of renting and now is living in a tier 2 city somewhere sunny, now owning real estate for the first time in their life.

I thought it was a well-written piece of humor, FWIW. A talented writer, IMO.

OK, now time to get the mud slinging.... Speaking of second-tier cities, isn’t that all of Brooklyn?

(I am also reminded of China, where a second-tier city is an official designation, and means something like a city with only 10M population. Chinese SE denizens may now correct my ignorance.)

Keith, what is considered summer in FL? First time I went to FL was Miami during Memorial Day weekend. I liked it just fine. Went again a few times over the years that weekend, another time in June. All good. Once went there over Thanksgiving and was happy to get 80+ weather. People sometime say “FL was great, weather was 68.” I’m thinking (in tourist mode) “WTF am I doing in FL when it’s 68?”

What is considered “bad” summer temp? I don’t get it.

I liked the Luke Winkie piece too... hope to hear more from him.

November through April is Wonderful for most, in the winter you can really have a variety of temperatures. It's currently 71°, yesterday I was on the beach and surfing with a light wetsuit. Most locals don't visit the beach in the winter, but you can certainly spot all the New Yorkers enjoying temps mostly in the 70's.

I think what you're missing NADA is spending any length of time here. Sure, if you're just popping in for a long weekend or a week on the ocean, you could easily get cooler temperatures or get lucky and get some very warm temperatures in the winter. If you're literally on the beach in the summer it can be 10° cooler. Very manageable, especially for someone like me who prefers the heat and actually enjoys the summers down here. However I mean literally on the beach, where you get the wind blowing off the cooler ocean.

May through October you start to see a heat index above 100°, and as he March towards Summer that he index can get even higher. That intense humidity and heat can be pretty unbearable for many people. But again if you're one that enjoys hot humid climates, you'll be fine. There's a reason people that have the means to do so leave here from May through November.

Here's a little secret about Northern Palm Beach County. The Gulf stream comes closest to the East Coast near Jupiter, this seems to have an effect on keeping our weather just a little bit cooler and more manageable in the summer. And if you're not into the beach, and wind up in a community like Wellington (horse country, Polo country) the summer is downright brutal.

Perhaps some others can chime in that have spent time down here spring through fall...

Nada-come on down you can buy one of these, err, I mean rent one! I know a number of New Yorkers who own here. Miami's not my cup of tea, although I did enjoy visiting South Beach in the '80s before it became a giant tourist trap. Only about an hour and a half ride from here..

https://www.waterclubliving.com/north-palm/

Like you, I enjoy the heat and would just live on the beach. Not that Montauk is that hot, but the house we were in had AC, but we didn’t turn it on a single time.

Yup, if you're living on the ocean it's actually pretty comfortable all year long for those of us who enjoy the heat. Especially in Northern Palm Beach County.

Keith, out of curiosity do you maintain tax residency in New York or Florida?

One aspect of "The Future" from the perspective of Balaji Srinivasan (recently on Tim Ferriss podcast): "The best quality of life will actually be available to the digital nomad who has a minimum number of possessions, has the ability to pick up and move stakes at any point, because mobility is leveraged against a state."

It is hard to argue with, except it ignores a fundamental dimensions that I feel many need for quality of life - stability and physical community, not to mention the human emotion of attachment to specific land that has historically been quite strong.

For anyone who is interested, in the podcast Srinivasan discusses all of the themes we've beaten to death on here. The question for NY and California is whether they will overlplay their hands; I don't think that is possible because I believe they've permanently got the nuts, but obviously time will tell.

For the moment, I take comfort that the best brains I personally know value the attributes of NY and CA despite the costs are still there. https://tim.blog/2021/03/24/balaji-srinivasan/

Balaji is a very smart guy. Given how clearly intent the Fed is on keeping rates low by any means necessary (which ultimately likely ends in yield curve control), along with the ECB and BoJ, he also may be right that many of the people who will be buying luxury real estate in 10-20 years are the ones accumulating bitcoin right now. It’ll be quite interesting to follow this year’s 8k releases and see how many institutions follow in Tesla and Microstrategy’s footsteps on that.

Yes, I am fascinated by all of that. Still no bitcoin for me. Honestly, the more I read about all of that, the more I just want to go camping with my dogs. I have no doubt that blockchain is real in the way it is transforming many areas; I just never count out "The State," particularly when there are so many competing governments. Anything that requires mankind to agree on some "universal truth" without the imprimatur of any government seems unlikely to come to fruition from a practical perspective, although it is certainly interesting in theory. Again, I would not complain if Elon Musk and Michael Saylor both moved to Mars and created a like-minded society. I do not particularly want to live in the world they depict and will be happy to go down with the rest of the animals on earth.

Blockchains are simply the latest in a very long history of people using shiny/scarce/resource-intensive materials to bypass government coinage. Gold served essentially the same purpose for millenia. By contrast, diamonds were once a "fad" investment, their value invented whole-cloth by clever marketing less than 100 years ago, only to see subsequent generations grow up thinking they too had inherent value.

Of course, this narrative suffers mightily from survivorship bias. Once you remember tulips, beanie babies, yu-gi-oh, and everything in between you see that it's not a question of whether people will race to stuff value into bitcoinish ventures after the current bull runs its course -- be assured they always will -- but whether *your* choice of hype train is the rare one with generational staying power.

As always, there's more opportunity in pickaxes than in gold...

I was hoping RichardBerg and/or Inonada would weigh in b/c I suspect they might actually understand this stuff. Thx!

300, upthread: "Ah. You forgot JNJ is only one shot in your calcs and system can ramp up easily to 2.5mm jabs per day by the end of March / April post JNJ approval. Naturally all this is dependent on JNJ getting approval."

to give the optimist his due, it's mid-April and we're now at 3.3 mm jabs per day, even with JNJ paused for the 1-in-a-million blood clot thing.

J. Powell likens Bitcoin to gold.

Apparently suburban homes are the new (and old) gold:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-market-is-nearly-4-million-homes-short-of-buyer-demand-11618484400

Very good interview with Jonathan Miller, talk rentals as well as the Exodus to the suburbs. And of course what's currently happening in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Great information from somebody out in the field and and probably examining hundreds of deals;

https://youtu.be/q6QUgKUlGfA

So many great parts to that interview! One of my favorites is when he points out how interest-rate driven the buying has been, and that some of the suburban demand came from suburban renters who suddenly had the ability to buy (and therefore, the suburban boom wasn't all flight from Big Bad New York City.)

Unfortunately politicians in certain cities were destroying the economy while "keeping us safe"

They didn't keep us safe either

I happened across this article from 1995 recently. How recently it was that politicians said companies would leave if their taxes weren't lowered. Now we hear the exact opposite - "nobody leaves regardless of what the taxes are." We'll be back to the game of tax giveaways soon enough. Oh wait, wasn't the whole reason Amazon was going to come to LIC because they would get huge tax breaks that no mom-and-pop small business competitor would ever receive?

https://www.nytimes.com/1995/08/08/nyregion/avon-office-is-expected-to-remain-in-midtown.html

"Avon Products Inc., which has threatened to move its headquarters and 950 employees from West 57th Street in Manhattan to Westchester County or Connecticut, is now expected to move to the Avenue of the Americas instead, real estate executives said yesterday.

"If Avon remains in Manhattan, it will probably join a long list of corporations that have received city tax breaks as an incentive not to leave."

I live in Nassau Country. Downsized from a house to condo two years ago and want to rectify the error in judgement.

Can't cause its crazy. Nice house on market 2 days had 4 offers well above asking. Not willing to overpay by 30%

Market seems to be heating up with no end in sight

"Market seems to be heating up with no end in sight"

Typically the worst time to buy, because 'the end' comes sooner or later. People should be that enthusiastic about buying when it looks like 'the end' going in the other direction is nowhere in sight.

Trust me; none of those offers were mine. I realize that some of the difference in price I made up after the sale of the house through investments; still not ready to overpay by 20-30%

I have a good friend whose a foreclosure attorney; before all this he told me there were tons of people in the 1-3 million market teetering on foreclosure. Now the government essentially has shut his business down

We'll see.

It's crazy. I assumed we'd see a slowdown outside of the city.

We've continued to get Zillow alerts after we bought and there's still no inventory. We saw one house we would've been interested in that was listed in line w Covid comps (i.e., no bargain), and it went Pending four days post-list.

It just closed on June 1. 32% over ask

To be clear, this is upstate

Think of the rebate that Igor could have gotten from me?! And I've got a house just about a quarter mile away from him, Igor if you ever need a cup of milk, you know where to find me.

The Real Deal: Hedge funder Igor Tulchinsky spends $40M on oceanfront North Palm Beach mansion.
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2021/06/09/hedge-funder-igor-tulchinsky-spends-40m-on-oceanfront-north-palm-beach-mansion/

https://www.northjersey.com/story/money/real-estate/2022/11/11/derek-jeter-home-greenwood-lake-nj-auction-price/69641866007/

Interesting backstory, looks like Jeters grandfather, who was adopted, lived here in the 1950s with the Tiedmanns... My cousin owns a vacation home on the lake, I didn't know anything about this home. Guess it was a sentimental purchase for Jeter.

"Records show the property was purchased by Greenwood Lake Properties LLC of Detroit in 2002 from the Tiedemann family trust for $425,000. At the time, the home on the lake's western shore was vacant and in a state of disrepair, having served as apartments for a time."