NYC recovery

No one's been talking about this? Should I be flattered or sue him for cribbing me?

He seems to be picking only some skewed data points to exaggerate his views. Like ultra luxury properties with no relation to the market to begin with or properties with huge tax abatements in not so desirable parts. But if you take a case of a good property in good neighborhood which traded at a reasonable fair value, is that still the case?

This guy only dreams. Didn't he see the crooks are writing tons of new money even more than toilet paper? Most zip codes in manhattan are undergoing a new housing bubble

LA county bringing indoor mask mandate back starting Sat night. Regardless of vaccination status. Here we go again

Israel has done the same wrt indoor mask mandate, and remember they have a very high vax rate..

My building loosened restrictions for common area mask wearing, but i am still wearing mask indoors. Think so many of us are vaccinated, but hearing stories of few vaccinated people being hospitalized, Anecdotal, but worries me.

The youtuber does seem to be cherry picking and potentially not accounting for product mix shifts. Also, very focused on diminishing advantages of working in NYC and forgetting that some people are interested in living here.

However, the data on Chinese RE purchase trends and net migration pre-COVID are very real and startling.

Brokers, are your Chinese "investors" selling?

The landscaping maintenance along West Side Highway looks so bad.

those Chinese billionaires are not selling, even if after losing 10 million, they are still billionaires , but if you lose 10 million, you don't have a normal life any more, that simple.

Wow, talk about looking backwards instead of forward. And no, broader market is not down 25% right now in five years. In six months his main thesis will be shown to be so wrong

Wow, talk about looking backwards instead of forward. And no, broader market is not down 25% right now in five years. In six months his main thesis will be shown to be so wrong

of cours the market is not down, how can it go down when the crooks keep printing toilet paper dollars

Population declining. Homelessness, street crime, decay, corruption, sky high taxes and over-regulation. Condo inventory glut even before COVID. The biggest taxpayer, commercial real estate facing a mortal threat in the form of millions of square feet no longer needed as employees recoil from returning to the office and employers alter their space needs in the Zoom economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/new-yorks-wealthiest-look-for-exits-as-state-readies-hefty-tax-increase-.html

https://nypost.com/2021/07/16/progressives-upside-down-view-of-nyc-crime/

Unfortunately the tax increases will hurt, as smart money always moves, but the biggest factor for middle- and lower-classes is the rise in crime and lack of safety/support in lower income neighborhoods.
Violence is just another stain on DeBlasio, but NYers pay the price

It's not just here. Barbara Boxer was recently robbed on the street in Oakland.

People already masking up in NYC, which is a substantial level for community area transmission. Good luck to all the big wigs pushing RTO now that even vaccinated individuals can become infected and infect. Cannot run to Florida anymore as they are even worse given high level of community area transmission. Hamptons/Suffolk county is substantial level. Westchester county and all CT counties moderate level so could be interesting. Upstate looks spotty. Anyways how long before NYC building boards limit amenities, open houses, etc again?

The takeaway; get vaccinated. Because if you are vaccinated you won't wind up in a hospital or even missing a day of work, at least for the vast majority.

Read this, the actual mandate from the CDC. Don't rely on New York Post style headlines for your information or to make decisions:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

@bpcbuyerconfused
I was very optimistic myself until about 2 weeks ago as the data out of Israel & LA (previous leading indicators) took turns for the worst.

NY cases are doubling every 2 weeks again. We have higher daily cases than this time last year.
Obviously this is resulting in far less hospitalization & death, however some non trivial number of vaccinated people getting delta become stay home from work for a week sick.
This number increases as the caseload runs up again with NY only being about 50% fully vaccinated and Pfizer only being about 40% effective against Delta.

Now its a race between 5-12 vaccination approval, suppressing case loads, and indoor mask mandates to see if schools will truly, fully open on-time in September. And if they do, but with full day mask mandates for children, what percent pull their kids out?

If kids are out of school again then what for RTO?

Also consider that most bank/fund September RTO is predicated on everyone being maskless on the floor, if not the whole building. If NY re-instates indoor mask mandates as LA did, and CDC is slowly walking towards then what?

We blue state liberals like to laugh at the red state yokels as being the main body of unvaccinated people, and the press is really amplifying that story. However take a look at the vaccination maps of NYC or actual demographic break down and see the huge vaccine skepticism in minority communities. Only 1/3 of my buildings staff got vaccinated, and our idiot board removed mask guidance 3+ months ago.

Sure your company might say RTO because the firm is 80-90% vaccinated, but what about the building lobby/security/janitors, the outsourced mail/reception/etc staff, the kitchen/cashier staff where you get your coffee&lunch, the 4 people you are bumping into during your 30 minute subway ride? Given the demographics maybe 40%..

Apple, which was one of the bigger/earlier RTO in CA has already pushed RTO at least a month into October. We may be re-entering a period of week to week incrementalism ..

@steve
Agree with you on sentiment. I work for a large investment bank and the office is still largely empty. Many employees that signed up for RTO in June stopped showing up after a few weeks. Clients actually seem to prefer Zoom meetings so habits have definitely changed, although there's still a minority that prefer old school in person meetings. A lot of the executives I know are in early talks about walking back RTO deadlines (post labor day) and delaying to January/February 2022 which is when full FDA approval of vaccines are expected to take place.

@bpcbuyerconfused -
My wife is at a big bank which mandated a big & early RTO but on the ground no one is following through, even senior management. Also she found out one of her desk neighbors is unvaccinated when she did a week in office and sat next to them all day...

Further many firms are switching to a hotel/hot desk setup now that we are all going to be hybrid, to make efficient use of space. With cases doubling every 2 weeks again, who wants to sit in a desk and use a communal mouse/keyboard.. !!phone/headset!! someone else was using the previous evening?

Google following in Apple’s footsteps here.. second big delay announcement

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/google-postpones-return-to-work-until-october-will-require-vaccinations.html

Maybe the fed is right: inflation is transitory, driven by temporary shortages, but given state of the world will not turn into long term hyperinflation. Tough to imagine economy overheating when we have more COVID flare ups, people do not want to work, businesses remain closed, etc.
On the other hand that means rates stay low, supporting RE prices.
One thing is certain, demand is still down vs 2019, rents are still below 2019 levels, and RE in New York is fundamentally less valuable than 2 years ago.

As long as people don't vaccinate and we have to mask, it gives criminals the opportunity to conceal their identity. This is a multilayered problem.

@stache - ironically, the geniuses committing most of the crimes you see NYPD posting videos of are not even wearing masks .. you have to remember if your best opportunity in life is shoving an old woman down the stairs or sticking up a GenZ at knife point for whatever cash they carry (they don't) then you probably haven't thought a lot of things through

This kind of stuff, which I guess is a combination of bail reform, prosecutorial/judicial discretion, and COVID loosening up to keep jails below capacity is pretty appalling:
Arrested & released 3 times in 36 hours until he finally puts a knife to a woman's throat at 1am.
Arrest timeline information:
Mon, 7/26 1:19pm-1849 2 Ave.
Tues, 7/27 10:22pm-E 80 & 2 Ave.
Wed, 7/28 1:20am-E 78 & 3 Ave.
(https://twitter.com/nypd19pct/status/1420429723566579713?s=10)

Things like above, and the following remind me and should remind others that the idea that "violent criminals" and "non-violent criminals" are some sort of different species and we can show massive leniency without violent side effects.

Some sort of attempted robbery/anti-Asian harrassment puts a 58yr old woman down the stairs in subway station 1.5 weeks ago, declared brain dead yesterday in hospital:
https://twitter.com/syissle/status/1416774880314413057?s=10
I doubt when they catch him they will find him to have a clean record and be a first time offender, no?

They took her off life support and donated her organs. RIP -

RIP to this victim of NYC crime. It seems most people are afraid to use the subway.

What bothers me more about the train right now is the number of people that are not masking, or not masking properly. It's much worse on buses as well, which until recently had better compliance.

I'm sure this was already seen elsewhere, but you have to note the upside surprise in the census figures yesterday at least upends the idea that the city has been losing population

https://gothamist.com/news/nycs-population-hits-record-88-million-according-2020-census

Interesting. Were the prior years also undercounting population? Is this a methodology switch?

If the court is accurate, I would ask whether the count includes illegal immigrants and whether it did last time. It certainly would not be the addition of people or businesses who work in finance:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-29/goldman-plans-new-dallas-campus-doubling-down-on-hub-in-texas

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9384177/Twenty-finance-tech-firms-NYC-verge-leaving-Florida.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/12/14/wall-street-banks-and-tech-companies-are-fleeing-new-york-and-california/

Thanks, Dean. I for one had not seen that yet.

Thanks, Dean. I for one had not seen that yet.

What was the reference date for the 2020 census?

This is some kind of office building at 423 W 55th St. -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxhcDD7Jfk4

Waiting for the shills to come back

It was kind of clickbait. To me doorman implies residential. This guy was more of a lobby guard.