StreetEasy Price Index Barely down 01/22-11/23

Month Manhattan
1/1/2022 1071344
2/1/2022 1077328
3/1/2022 1079825
4/1/2022 1087519
5/1/2022 1093583
6/1/2022 1102702
7/1/2022 1108957
8/1/2022 1110889
9/1/2022 1106327
10/1/2022 1106426
11/1/2022 1101692
12/1/2022 1096765
1/1/2023 1087620
2/1/2023 1080088
3/1/2023 1076445
4/1/2023 1064674
5/1/2023 1065012
6/1/2023 1059458
7/1/2023 1064555
8/1/2023 1063724
9/1/2023 1067144
10/1/2023 1067794
11/1/2023 1070497

Had it kept up with inflation, it would be 1,170,000 - a full 100k higher.

Low mortgage rates from earlier years are throttling inventory leading to indigestion - it will work its way through, gradually

@George - hey what's a near 10% real loss in 22mo on a 5x levered investment ?

This is Manhattan RE, haven't you heard.. they ain't making anymore! It's an island!!

And don't forget we peaked mid 2017 at about 1,166,742 .. inflation adjust that and we should be at about 1,461,526 right now.

Or if you bought in 2008 when the index was at 1,003,243 which inflation adjusts to.. pretty similar to the 2017 number, 1,430,759.

I get the inflation argument. But all of us (myself included) were calling for a decline due to higher rates. That is why I am surprised. Any thoughts on that?

MTH is right -- you just haven't seen it yet. From my POV (which is limited, as there's only one of me) Contracts signed 4Q 2023 are coming in lower, and you'll see those prices in the index 1Q 2024.

ali r.
{upstairs realty}

There are some major differences between Manhattan coop market vs the rest of the world, such as high monthlies (regardless if you actually live in it), and restriction of renting out. In a situation that a coop owner already move out, any marginal profit from holding below 3% mortgage and investing in higher return, will be offset by the monthly cost.

For the rest of the world, it makes more sense to sit on 3% mortgage as the holding cost is relatively low, and the owner have the choice to rent it out and take advantage of the rents increase.

I still believe the low inventory of coop market is driven by emotionally the coop owners choose to bleed 3 to 5% every year, instead of taking a lump sum of 20% loss this year, in the hope next year will be better. The reality can be next year the monthlies will be even higher, at least that upper east areas I am interested in buying , the average monthlies is north of $5000, with assessment here and there.

Ali, That makes sense. So another 3 months before we see the 7 percent plus mortgage effect in this index.

On rates, already close to 6% before rich client discount. What do people forecast in the next 6 months for Street Easy Index? Call it 05/2024 print which will come in June 2024.

Rental Index is probably a big reason for prices holding up. Up 15%.

Month Manhattan NYC
1/1/2022 3334 2973
2/1/2022 3393 3017
3/1/2022 3455 3062
4/1/2022 3515 3110
5/1/2022 3580 3164
6/1/2022 3638 3220
7/1/2022 3688 3267
8/1/2022 3729 3306
9/1/2022 3755 3333
10/1/2022 3751 3339
11/1/2022 3735 3328
12/1/2022 3721 3316
1/1/2023 3716 3316
2/1/2023 3723 3321
3/1/2023 3737 3333
4/1/2023 3766 3355
5/1/2023 3795 3380
6/1/2023 3826 3408
7/1/2023 3850 3434
8/1/2023 3865 3452
9/1/2023 3861 3454
10/1/2023 3843 3445
11/1/2023 3821 3431