NYC RE tanking HARD

"you may not be able to find a buyer stupid enough to buy right now"

His name is Tech Guy.

SteveF will gladly sell you a place.

anon3: You may be right about the 70%, or you may be way off. Either way, I'm not sure you enhance your credibility by linking to a blog entry that quotes (not very accurately) an article from a third-tier newspaper website that was already posted here.

I couldn't bet on 70%. Perhaps 40-50 over 5-6 years. But NYC is going to catch uo with the rest of the country quickly.

I agree. It's likely to be "only" 50%. When you add in the effects of inflation over the next 5 yrs, the real decline could approach 70%. Frightening.

Well look at that! After all the people who derided my predictions in January, seems like some are coming aboard. Welcome. I said that Manhattan was massively overpriced, and guess what? IT WAS!

Now then - to know how it happened we need only look at a 2003 exemption granted by the SEC to 5 investment banks - read the list: BSC, GS, MER, LEH, MS - to increase their LEVERAGE from the typical 12x of a commercial bank, to 40x capital. All that money - at 0% interest remember (thank you Mr. Greenspan) - had to go someplace, and guess where it went?

Into housing.

Now that three on the list are dead - BSC, LHE, MER - and the remaining two - GS, MS - are commercial banks, guess what's going to happen to their balance sheets?

Shrink.

WaMu fails, but what are we now faced with in Washington? Gridlock, because the administration, the entire Senate and House Democrats are backing the necessary bailout plan, but a minority of dogmatic House Republicans are blocking an agreement because they want a "free market solution" including - YES! - more deregulation.

If a plan is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday.

These people are fools. I don't like Barak Obama and wasn't going to vote for him, but I've changed my mind.

"If a plan is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday."

Of all the asinine comments stevejhx typically makes, this one is a stand-out...

"Of all the asinine comments stevejhx typically makes, this one is a stand-out..."

Watch. You probably thought my prediction about Manhattan pricing was asinine, as well. Too bad. When you have Hank Paulson on bent knee before Nancy Pelosi BEGGING her to pass the bailout bill as happened last night lest the whole system collapse, when it's the dogmatic House Republicans who are blocking it, things are bad.

There is no credit. Look at the TED spread. Let's count some of the major financial institution failures:

1) Washington Mutual - country's largest thrift
2) Merrill Lynch - country's largest broker-dealer
3) American International Group - country's largest insurer
4) Bear Stearns - country's largest fixed-income dealer
5) Lehman Brothers - country's third largest broker dealer.

Then the two that switched to being commercial banks:

6) Goldman Sachs - country's largest investment bank
7) Morgan Stanley - country's second largest investment bank.

And my comments are asinine?

Cool.

Oh! I forgot Countrywide, the country's largest mortgage lender, and IndyMac, the country's second largest mortgage lender.

Damn! That's 9.

"Watch. You probably thought my prediction about Manhattan pricing was asinine, as well. Too bad."

Steve, your prediction is just that--a prediction. You can't scream "Victory, I am correct" until Manhattan housing drops 50%, which it hasn't yet (and, frankly, never will).

Steve,

Unlike most of your (wild) speculation, you made a prediction that we'll be able to easily verify on Monday (if an agreement on the bailout is not reached). We'll circle back on Monday afternoon and see where the markets stand.

"and, frankly, never will"

I'll hold you to that, ssskit. For one simple reason, or more: 50% of Wall Street will lose their jobs, there will never again be obscene bonuses, no bank is willing to lend money to anyone because they either don't have it, are rebuilding their capital base, or don't want to lend against real estate. Thousands of new (and overpriced) units are just entering the market at precisely the time that inventory is rising, and all the above is happening, at prices whose carrying costs are twice rental costs.

You tell me who's going to buy all those units.

anon3, are you confusing the 70% drop in Manhattan real estate with the 70% drop in your portfolio?

"We'll circle back on Monday afternoon and see where the markets stand."

I'm game.

west81- as usual, your comments are spot on.

anon3, do you have any rationale for your 70% down other than take out the financial calculator, 20% yoy decline input, 5 year input = 67% decline. if you add another year, you get 74% decline! you seem to have a lot of pent up frustration that you missed the boat on nyc real estate. look, i did as well, but there's no reason to get your blood pressure up by calling people who buy "stupid". what if someone bought a 2 bed/2.5 bath 1900 sq ft new construction in 2001 for 750k and then sold that in dec 07 for $2.26mm. then recently rolled that money into an even nicer 2,500 sq ft place nearby for the same price that they can live for the next 10 years. could their new place go down in value? sure. but are they stupid? seems like they did better than me renting all these years.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/96647-condo-151-west-17th-street-chelsea-new-york

and yes, i know the couple that did this.

will someone please post links to actual sales of units that show a 50% drop?

"you missed the boat on nyc real estate."

Boats sink.

"Boats sink" - agreed and i eagerly await it doing so. still doesn't mean i need to call everyone who buys "stupid" or "idiot"

Did I call anybody "stupid" or an "idiot" recently?

Look at all the bears huddling and taking solace in their desperate frustrated dream worlds. btw kgg, my properties aren't on the market, why do i want to sell i'm a young guy with, God willing, plenty of time to build wealth see you at 50.

This article changed my mind. Seriously, this very article. I now see the light. I just listed my apartment on Streeteasy at a 65% discount (I'm hoping to find a buyer is too stupid to realize it should have a 70% discount). Obviously I can't put the money in the stock market - the Dow is hitting 5000 in a few days! I have the perfect solution - shotgun, canned goods, bottled water. Half I'll eat/drink myself, the other half I'll barter for an apartment in 15 CPW. Of course I won't be able to fit all that in my new Manhattan rental for the time being, so I guess I'll quit my job and find a shack out in Montana.

Thank you guys, my life is going to be SO much better! And to think, I was such a stupid idiot just a few minutes ago...

Sweet. So this 1 bedroom at 40 Bond that's now just a wee bit overpriced at $3,500,000 will be an absolute steal when eventually reduced 70% to only $1,050,000!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/343920-condo-40-bond-street-noho-new-york

I can hardly wait! I'm getting my penny jar ready right now...

anon3...look at his short rhetoric lol..sorry can't push a button and get out now!! these aren't stocks and yahoo message boards....takes months to sell. That's the beauty of this illiquid money maker...no gyrations.

"Did I call anybody "stupid" or an "idiot" recently?"
not talking about you... referring to OP as per my prior post and other thread he opened

"Well look at that! After all the people who derided my predictions in January, seems like some are coming aboard. Welcome. I said that Manhattan was massively overpriced, and guess what? IT WAS!"

Steve, are you welcoming people aboard your ship? I thought "boats sink."

stevejhx, congrats on selling your FI place. Probably bittersweet, but hey you are out. Are you moving to Hell's Kitchen?

Thanks, I'm out when getting out is good. Hell's Kitchen? We'll see what they have available when it's time to make the decision. Probably, if I can get 20% more room for 2/3 the price.

Actually, I was relieved to sell the place. My comedy is taking off and I'll need to work Friday and Saturday nights, so I couldn't make use of it much, anyhow. Seems like everything came together at once.

To all those who think that real estate in Manhattan never loses value - look at the fundamentals, tell me who is going to be buying all these units? No one that I can tell.

"Probably, if I can get 20% more room for 2/3 the price"

That line will be good for your act. Do you do real estate jokes?

"To all those who think that real estate in Manhattan never loses value"

Honestly, I don't know anyone who fits this description. I agree with a lot of what you say - it's the flip and arrogant attitude/Schadenfreude you adopt that dents your cred a bit and frustrates people. I know you don't care, but I think you sometimes confuse those people with "those who think that real estate in Manhattan never loses value."

Congrats on selling the place quickly - I assume you priced it favorably.

JM, real estate right now IS a joke

eric cartman - what investment is not a joke right now?

Steve's predictions so far are:

NYC RE down 70%

Dow down to 5,000 by Monday if no bailout deal is reached today

Wall Street firms lay off 50% of their workforce

Steve, you make many excellent points and are clearly a very smart guy. These statements, however, are so extreme and without support that they take away from all of the useful and thoughtful comments you post. Just my 2 cents, feel free to agree, disagree or take it and buy 1/8 of a share a Wamu stock.

"JM, real estate right now IS a joke"

cartman, how has your portfolio done over the past 6 months?

By which Monday?

look at the closings; apartments are still selling and closing for $1m and above. There's money out there, lots of it.

"NYC RE down 70%"

Never said that.

"Dow down to 5,000 by Monday if no bailout deal is reached today"

I didn't say "today."

"Wall Street firms lay off 50% of their workforce"

BSC, LEH have already reached that threshold. MER will as well once it merges into BAC - they've already identified $7 billion in cuts. Guess where that's coming from? That leaves GS, MS, and their future as commercial banks makes things a little more difficult to predict, but if they are forced to reduce their leverage from 40x to 12x, them there's lots of lost jobs.

"Do you do real estate jokes?"

No need to.

"the flip and arrogant attitude/Schadenfreude you adopt that dents your cred a bit and frustrates people"

Read into my tone whatever you like - that doesn't mean that that is my intention.

Julia, I think we can all agree that there are some people that still have lots of money.

But, the fact that places are still selling doesn't right now doesn't necessarily mean anything. As discussed in multiple threads, once you're in contract it's very hard to get out. So if people signed last month before the recent troubles, they'd still be obliged to buy or lose their deposit.

"Read into my tone whatever you like - that doesn't mean that that is my intention."

Fair enough, but it's not hard to hear that when you write "Good riddance" in response to the WaMu failure.

anon3, just curious, if you think Manhattan RE will be down "AT LEAST 70%," what would you expect as the high end? 80%? 90%?

Steve, you did say down 70% in the past 5-10 days. If I was smart enough to be able to search the threads here I could pull it up. Since I am not, if there is anyone out there with a few spare minutes on their hands and a bigger brain in their head than I have (which should be easy), please pull out Steve's prediction of NYC RE down 70%. And of course, thanks in advance for the time and effort!

Steve, your quote above on the Dow:

If a plan is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday.

"you did say down 70% in the past 5-10 days."

Never.

"is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000"

"Maybe" does not equal "definitely," does it?

"it's not hard to hear that when you write "Good riddance" in response to the WaMu failure."

I just searched on "Good Riddance" and nowhere is that phrase attached to my name, most especially with respect to Washington Mutual, horrible bank that it was.

You can take whatever position you like about me personally (hard since you don't know me) or what I think will happen, but please be careful and ascribe to me only that which I have actually said.

Thanks.

"I just searched on "Good Riddance" and nowhere is that phrase attached to my name, most especially with respect to Washington Mutual, horrible bank that it was.

You can take whatever position you like about me personally (hard since you don't know me) or what I think will happen, but please be careful and ascribe to me only that which I have actually said.

Thanks."

Steve, here's the thread and post:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5262-wamu-no-more

stevejhx
about 15 hours ago
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Riddance.

waverly, Steve's been pretty consistent with the 50% thing, I think.

"Steve, you did say down 70% in the past 5-10 days."

waverly, could it be your thinking of anon? Not that I pay that much attention, but I only ever remember steve saying 50% down.

"is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday"

Impossible. the NYSE and NASDAQ would halt trading before it ever came close to 5,000, which would be approximately a 60% drop from where the DOW is trading at the time I write this. The exchanges suspend trading for an hour on a 10% drop, 2 hours for a 20% drop and an entire day for a 30% drop.

> "To all those who think that real estate in Manhattan never loses value"

> Honestly, I don't know anyone who fits this description.

I knew plenty.... last month, that is...

Agreed that steve has always said 50%, never 70%. But 5000 Dow? That's a completely ridiculous statement. I respect you, steve, but that really did put a dent in your credibility.

"I knew plenty.... last month, that is..."

Eddie, maybe so, but I don't think many of them are on this site. Maybe you know a lot of third-rate brokers?

Steve, You are parsing language with the maybe. Your statement clearly infrers that if a deal is not reached by this weekend (additionally, maybe even today) the Dow will be at 5,000 by Monday. I don't want to get into a discussion over what the definition of is is, but you said the Dow would be at 5,000 by Monday without a deal by this weekend.

You also said NYC RE would go down 70%.

My point is that you post very extreme and reactionary comments that rile people up and then do a bit of backpedaling. Your stubborness even prevents you from admitting that your Dow at 5,000 statement was just a stupid thing to say. Like when you are angry and you say to someone, "I could kill you." You aren't actually going to kill the person. You are too smart to let these extreme statements with no support taint all the good points you raise. Also, it's okay to say, "Yeah, that was stupid to say. I was wrong."

PEOPLE LETS THINK THIS THRU!!!

As a reasonable person- would you be willing to drop the price of your apt +30%? or wait for the tides to eventually turn.

Steve didn't say "by THIS Monday"

alanhart, did you interpret this to mean some far-off Monday in the distant future? It's pretty heavily implied here:

"If a plan is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday."

i think he was being sarcastic :)

Sorry guys, but you're going to have to take remedial English courses. From Oxford:

"riddance: n noun the action of getting rid of someone or something.

"PHRASES: good riddance expressing relief at being rid of someone or something."

I didn't say "good riddance" - I said "riddance," and used it correctly.

ron_burgundy: you're correct, trading would be halted, resumed, halted, resumed, halted.

waverly: I NEVER said that housing would be down 70%, I've always maintained 50%. Claim all you like.

"Your statement clearly infrers that if a deal is not reached by this weekend (additionally, maybe even today) the Dow will be at 5,000 by Monday."

First, back to English, a statement implies, a person infers. I did say this weekend; I didn't say today. I said "maybe today," and I stick by it.

This Monday, bjw.

"As a reasonable person- would you be willing to drop the price of your apt +30%? or wait for the tides to eventually turn."

don't think it works like that. if you priced a place reasonably now(whatever that means), then of course you wouldn't drop it 30%. even if you did, you'd probably get multiple offers quickly bidding it up from that level. but what you may think of doing is dropping 5% below recent comps to get out more quickly. your place sells, and then the other 3 units that come on the market see your mark as a comp. then one of them prices 5% below that to outsell the other two units. and so on... the process could take years

I am fairly certain Steve wrote recently something to the effect of, "I always thought NYC RE would go down 50%, but now I think it will be more like 70%. Yeah. 70% seems like the number."

Those are not his words, just my grainy memory. I feel pretty strong that it was Steve and that I noted it because it was a departure from his usual 50%. I do also believe that I make plenty of mistakes and could be wrong. Where is the search mechanism to search the threads? I can pull up the long laundrey list of topics, but I don't see a search area. Sorry for being retarded. I am usually much better about this stuff.

Steve, I am trying to run a business here and pecking away a bit at Streeteasy, so sorry if my grammar and typing is not always perfect.

Oh yeah, you may also want to try not being a dick to people about things like that.

And yes, I am inferring that you Steve, on numerous occasions, behave like a condescending d-bag when you don't need to. That also takes away from the good points you raise.

Snarky humor is often appreciated. Being a dick because you are defensive, not so much.

i am looking to buy an apt, a condo only, in the west village preferably. could spend up to 2.5, but with the way the markets are going, don't think it is necessary. do you low ball bid now, or just completely hold off til the new year? thanks

I had though 15-25%, but in the last month, its 25-35% now for me overall. I think we'll see 50% in some pockets.

waverly, on this thread

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5180-you-are-an-idiot-if-you-buy-right-now?page=1

steve posts days ago: "I don't know about 70%, but the 50% that I've always been calling for will certainly occur. " the only person i've seen that has said 70% is anon, who opened that thread. though none of this changes how impossible a dow of 5,000 by monday is...

nyc10022....what pockets?

Thank you Special_K: I was just going to post that myself.

"you may also want to try not being a dick to people about things like that."

Well maybe you may also want to try not being a ... by claiming that people have said things that they haven't. K?

JM says: "cartman, how has your portfolio done over the past 6 months?"

well, not well, I must admit - I am down about 20% or so - though I managed to systematically move into cash over the last six months and so things are not as bad as it could have been (equities are liquid, you see). I still have my downpayment money intact.

Note that losing 20% of unleveraged money is SO MUCH better than losing 20% of leveraged money -- if you lose 20% on a condo, you are pretty much wiped out.

The DOW cannot possibly fall 6000 points by Monday. That's insane.

Special_K - thanks for the link. I stand corrected then on the 70% for Steve. I was wrong and I certainly apologize for attributing that to you Steve. I was wrong.

BTW, the fact that you would equate somebody making a mistake about something you said (and apologizing for it) with just a general and consistent behavior pattern of douchiness does speak volumes as to your personality. So when you say to other people here that they don't know you, that is not quite true. How you interact with people shows them what kind of a person you are. When you are condescending to people who don't agree with you consistently, you do show what kind of a person you are.

Just because you are smart doesn't mean that you possess any people-skills. I am sure that you wouldn't agree with this publicly, but I am positive this is not the first time you have been told that you don't play well in the sandbox with the other kids.

"Sorry guys, but you're going to have to take remedial English courses. From Oxford:
"riddance: n noun the action of getting rid of someone or something."

Not going to argue semantics with you Steve, but the "good" was heavily implied. Why would you just write "riddance"? To just re-state exactly what the thread title said (WaMu no more)? Weird.

Understood about the Dow prediction for THIS Monday (if the plan falls through) - I was clarifying for alanhart.

On the futures market, the likelihood of a deal was pegged at 80% apparently. I agree that if there is no deal, we'll have some big issues.

But, I'm pretty sure there will be a deal, just a LOT of stupid posturing before it. Noone wants to be the one who votes against the package that "would have saved us" (which is what will be said, and clearly we have some pain to go through). But, these guys want to show that they "stood up against the boondoggle". But they all know we need the boondoggle.

"the fact that you would equate somebody making a mistake about something you said (and apologizing for it) with just a general and consistent behavior pattern of douchiness does speak volumes as to your personality."

Here's what you said about me: "You also said NYC RE would go down 70%."

That's clearly not the case, and now that you've been called on it you apologize. Seems my denials weren't enough for you.

"Your statement clearly infrers that if a deal is not reached by this weekend (additionally, maybe even today) the Dow will be at 5,000 by Monday."

I most certainly did not say that a deal had to be reached today. I said "maybe."

So, I show "a general and consistent behavior pattern of douchiness" that "speaks volumes as to my personality," when you're the one who has been shown to be completely wrong?

Neat-o.

bjw: "Not going to argue semantics with you Steve, but the "good" was heavily implied. Why would you just write "riddance"?"

"Heavily implied"? It was a one-word post. How can I "heavily imply" something in a one-word post?

"Riddance" means "good-bye," that's it. If I had meant "good riddance," I certainly am eloquent enough to have written it.

You guys are too much.

NYC - I think you are right. They have to pass the deal. There is no way they can go back to their districts if there grandtsanding hurts their constituents or costs them jobs. Like anything else in politics, everyone is trying to play an angle. It would be nice to see them all act responsibly and unified for a change. I don't see how there can be any disagreement on the need for oversight and for not allowing the CEO's to get large sums of money from the $700 billion for their bonuses. That would seem to be a deal-breaker for any politician running for office down the road.

I think somemthing will pass and it will probably be a little bit more of what the Democrats want, but not everything. And there will always be something stupid in it that will surface in a day or two, but they should get a deal done.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/realestate/21deal1.html

how dare they! completely opposite picture, it must be wrong... they must be on crack.
i mean who are you gonna believe? nytimes or radar online. of course radar, they got a sweet logo.

Right. Figure this... in the end, the next year is going to be painful for a LOT of people. Those not directly hit will watch the government squabble over budgets. Nothing anyone is going to do is going to save us from all the pain.

So, ANY politician in their right mind doesn't want to be the one who made sure we didn't do the thing that everyone said would help... If there was a chance that we could skip this, and then everything gets rosy, that is one thing... but its pretty clear that THERE IS NO ROSY. So you need to have done SOMETHING.

But, yes, expect some crazy amendments and bullshit attached like always.

BTW, the tentative agreement already have oversight and ceo salary caps. The talks broke down AFTER that...

"But, I'm pretty sure there will be a deal, just a LOT of stupid posturing before it."

Couldn't agree with you more EW. I get a kick out of politicians that do interviews on CNBC. They had a senator on this morning that looked and sounded like a complete idiot. The Squawk team tore him to shreds. The posturing on this issue is endless and makes me want to vomit, none of these fucking politicians can comprehend or articulate what the hell is going on.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=868529751&play=1

The day a handful of apartments drop +30% in price is NOT the day the whole RE market drops +30%

I am actually looking to buy-

any NO ONE is really budging more than 15%.

If they are negotiating, the apt was over priced to begin with or not very attractive.

"It was a one-word post. How can I "heavily imply" something in a one-word post?"

You can certainly imply with one word. I learned that in my "remedial English" classes when I was getting my English major. Anyway, back to RE...

Its all some some schmuck from W Virginia or somewhere can go "I stood up to the communists who wanted to destroy America". Somebody should go after those guys with a vengeance after this is done.

But, I guess New Yorkers can't really complain, we have the same idiot here... Shelly Silver.

Steve, normally I would just let this go, but you are so defensive and refuse to admit that you are ever wrong, so let's again bring up your statement here:

"If a plan is not passed by this weekend - and maybe by today - the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday."

The "maybe by today" only moves up the deadline, so we can look at the statement with the longer deadline for the plan which is this weekend. You state that if a plan is not reached by this weekend the Dow will be at 5,000 on Monday. In trying to defend it later on you dropped the Monday part to distract people. You said Monday originally. Take a look.

These are your words. Still predicting the Dow at 5,000 by Monday if a deal isn't reached by this weekend or were you wrong for stating this earlier?

Secondly, you stated that "50% of Wall Street will lose their jobs."

You have no idea of this and I would like to know if you stand by this statement or if you were wrong on this prediction as well?

"when I was getting my English major."

Really. Well when I was getting my MA in Spanish from Columbia, I learned that you can't imply with one word. In fact, as a translator I can tell you that it's nearly impossible to determine the specific meaning of any word if there is no context.

If I say, "F*ck," and only that - what do I mean? Good or bad or indifferent? Noun or verb? Question or statement?

"Riddance" is what I wrote; it is what I meant. Too bad they didn't teach you diction when you were earning your English major.

You are free to disagree with my opinions, but please don't ascribe to me meanings that I don't mean.

Steve, this is exactly what I mean by your condescending attitude. Lovely stuff. If you want to compare genitalia size, I have a more reputable Master's from Columbia as well and am completely fluent in Spanish and French, languages in which you can also imply with one word. You're right that you can't imply with one word in complete isolation, but that's not the case when you're responding to a thread/discussion, especially when you've posted a lot about the financial market here. Ok? Now if we can move on please...

"If you want to compare genitalia size"

Yuck.

"Now if we can move on please..."

Yes - as soon as you admit that your inference from my statement is completely wrong. I said "riddance," I meant "riddance." Had I meant "good riddance," I would have said such.

People constantly accuse me of saying things I didn't, and of meaning things that I don't. You're just one more.

"especially when you've posted a lot about the financial market here"

But not WaMu. I did say that investment bank bonuses were obscene and that they deserved their fate because of the risk they took, but I never made a comment about Washington Mutual.

Sorry.

Seriously, you two.... save the grammar arguments for perfitz.

petrfitz & LICC are permanently blocked.

Steve, I'll take you ignoring my statement as admitting you were wrong about the Dow at 5,00 on Monday and the 50% layoffs for WS. I didn't actually think that you would admit it.

"I'll take you ignoring my statement as admitting you were wrong about the Dow at 5,00 on Monday and the 50% layoffs for WS."

No. I stand by them.

seems like some useless ego energy being wasted here. think i'll find a new thread to visit.

Hah! I agree. A person who can't admit they are wrong, even when the evidence is staring ithem in the face, has nothing useful to say. They only want pump themselves up.

Have a great weekend all!

good god, a masters degree in spanish --- that explains everything.
i guess that could be useful... if you're managing a deli or something.

so the truth comes out.

Interestingly enough, market is up again.... (even with WaMu dead). I think folks get that this bailout will be passed in one form or another... probably with some rider to build a bridge from bumbfuck west virginia to bumbfuck west virginia.

Yeah, I think the Dow going down to 5000 by Monday if the bailout is not agreed by Monday is quite far-fetched...but then again, the bailout may happen in which case, we'll never know of its chances. I'd say this prediction is a little bit extreme though.

4:00 pm - Dow is up - still no deal - Dow 5,000 Monday is not looking likely, but, Steve, you have good luck, so if it keeps up there will be a deal signed, sealed and delivered Monday morning by the time the markets open

"Couldn't agree with you more EW. I get a kick out of politicians that do interviews on CNBC. They had a senator on this morning that looked and sounded like a complete idiot. The Squawk team tore him to shreds. The posturing on this issue is endless and makes me want to vomit, none of these fucking politicians can comprehend or articulate what the hell is going on."

If the link you gave is what you are referring to, that is Richard Shelby, Republican, former Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs (lost chairmanship when his party lost power). He is a very powerful Republican. Whatever his understanding of the crisis, his viewpoint is very important. There have been reports of tens of thousands of constituent phone calls to Congressional offices against the bailout, in an election year. THere will likely be a deal, but anyone who thinks this is only posturing should be careful not to underestimate a minority movement. These guys need to be diffused, not derided.

"good god, a masters degree in spanish --- that explains everything.
i guess that could be useful... if you're managing a deli or something."

lmao gumball. kinda mean but nonetheless...

Here is a serious question though: a master in Spanish from Columbia, or a master in English from the National University of Mexico, who would make a better translator?

didn't know there was such thing as masters in spanish.
Does mexico/spain born qualify as PhD in spanish?

Half this board now seems to bee off topic.

Is it because there is no one to argue that there isn't a crash anymore?

Perhaps, but they won't know as much about RE

"Half this board now seems to bee off topic.

Is it because there is no one to argue that there isn't a crash anymore?"

No nyc/EW, it's because YOU are not arguing hard enough. You havn't posted any links to Times or Bloomberg articles for hours! For god's sake how do expect people to get access to those stories? You are slacking off my friend and how dare you expeect people to argue with you?

"The Squawk team tore him to shreds."

The Squawk team's a bunch of schmucks themselves. That Becky Quick bimbo has a BA in Bone Smuggling from Rutgers. She's eye candy for stock nerds.

I love CNBC but some of the commentators there are clueless.

^^^ I'm sorry, I realize I wasn't being fair. Didn't mean to be so hard on you... It's Friday and you need a break too.

every time I hear one of those CNBC retards say "toxic paper" I just want to punch them through the flat screen. Its like the buzz phrase for these tools.

Gumball - thanks, I needed a good laugh, I'm losing my f****** shirt!