Brain and wealth drain from NYC

talented people does not equate to financial professionals. We will be happy to see all the vapid wall streeters move away!

Petr, I take your point culturally speaking. A Manhattan with an increasing number of Wall Streeters does not necessarily make it an interesting or diverse place to live. However, the effect on real estate prices will be devastating. Some people like that trade-off. But there is a trade-off. And you are welcome to think finance is full of vapid people, but that does not make them un-talented. I think everyone agrees that the most talented people in finance in the world are centered in New York.

Once NYC's revenue from finance dries up, the city will become a nightmare, much like it was in the 70's and 80's. If you think it's dirty and grimy now, wait a few years!

Yes, within 10 years -

No Met
No Guggenheim
No MoMA
No Whitney
No Neue Galerie
No Frick
No New Museum
No DIA
No Met Opera
No NYCO
No NYSO
No ABT
No NYCB
No Carnegie Hall
No BAM
No Central Park Conservancy
No Columbia
No NYU
No Julliard

(all please feel free to continue this list)

As a Detroit native, I (in fact, I believe I can say WE here) think you're absolutely spot on, rufus - and I (WE) agree you would best served buy selling - NOW!! - AS FAST AS YOU CAN!!!! - and move as far from this area as you possibly can, as soon as you can!!!!!

Buh-bye :)

10th Street - there are not many wall street owners in the LES. I couldnt care less if UWS and Tribeca lost value.

rufus, read this, see if it rings a bell.

http://www.paulgraham.com/trolls.html

To sum up petrfitz and TenthStreet's responses, diversity will grow in NY as more people of a broad range of talents can more easily afford NY, where they've always really wanted to live (not unlike extraordinarily untalented people from the Indiana suburbs of Chicago, but they're losers and will never be able to move to NY).

The resulting creative explosion will form a better matrix to once again make NY an international powerhouse (as usual).

So this little shakeout is good for NY.

Sadly, Chicago has no other industries besides a couple of slices of financial services / gambling operations, which will be similarly re-regulated. And chewing gum. Dying print and broadcast media. Retail beer consumption. That's about it for Chicago. Very sad. Chicago will be the Detroit of the midwest in 5 years.

Also, boy genius, you shouldn't really gloat about this financial crisis, because the upshot is easy credit will no longer flow to the Indiana suburbs of Chicago, and all the businesses, such as they are, located in that pancake-flat area, or any part of the US. More rust, more sunbelt emigration, more rust.

chicago's home to balki and carl winslow. can't beat that.

chicago sucks. i go there often. no interesting industries. all the people are white. the chicks are cankled. its pretty boring. the only thing that the city has is a pretty decent comedy scene.

Comedy always has its origins in tragedy.

Could be that Alaska will be the place with oil drilling and Sarah Palin. Got to admit she cracks me up. Or is that Tina Fey?

> Once NYC's revenue from finance dries up, the city will become a nightmare, much like it was in the
> 70's and 80's.

Or, just like current Chicago...

Seriously, we have the ultimate battle of the trolls... perfitz vs. rufus.

eddiewilson you are the king of trolls. You are such a troll that you had to change your name.

Chicago sucks because there's too many white people? LOL! well, Chicago has plenty of hot chicks, especially blondes, so it's a good city for people like me. NYC has some decent museums and shows, but the nightlife in terms of clubs and bars, is mediocre. Next time you visit Chicago, check out places like y-bar, rednofive, stone lotus, underground, bon v, krem, and you'll realize how mediocre NYC's scene is.

decent comedy- interesting.
trying to save some face on my old hometown of chicago:
don't forget
- the world class food
- the industries of accounting, consulting, fast food, pharma
- great sports

streakeasy, i agree. Chicago has some of the best restaurants in the country: alinea, tru, charlie trotter, blackbird, everest, moto, to name a few.

http://www.trollhunters.org/files/trolls/troll-02.jpg

the food in chicago is a step above Olive Garden, the chicks are total civilians.

When a city's residents are so pathetic that they have to troll on boards of the cities they aspire to be, you KNOW its a city on the move...

Rufus:

There are a number of people here who could easily move to Chicago and live there, but choose instead to remain in NY. There's a reason, why so many of us are here. Why don't you just get it and move on. You know that this debate will never be settled.
Personally, I have enjoyed Chicago whenever I visited - enjoyed eating at a couple restaurants (Arun's and Topolabampo (Sp?) are my 2 faves there), but much rather prefer Toronto after NYC on the east coast. Now that is a fun place.

The one major disadvantage (for me) I feel with a town like Chicago is that it is in the middle of the country and away from either coasts. I think most cities on the coasts (NY, Boston, Miami, LA, SF, Seattle, Vancouver) are the gateways for global trends, ideas, immigrants, food, and other influences into the continent and hence always interesting, which perhaps come a little later or never to Chicago. Hence, I can never think of Chicago as a truly global city. The people are nice and friendly, but just too into sports, which becomes a little tiring for me. That apart its brutally cold winters and provincial/insular attitudes are some of the negatives.

Sure, I could rent a loft down in River North in Chicago for what I pay here on the UWS, but NY is a lot of fun and the conveniences are unbeatable - seriously. No offense mate, just my 2 cents.

cheers,

baabamaal, the only disdvantage of Chicago's location is the brutal winter. but the summers are much more pleasant, especially next to lake michigan. it's not as nearly as humid, and you can feel the cool breeze coming in from the lake.

i do agree that chicago has less foreigners than nyc, miami, or la, but i don't necessarily see that as a negative. chicago has plenty of awesome restaurants, and people there aren't really missing out on "global trends," whatever you mean by that. can you even give me examples of trends that are in nyc but have not yet arrived in chicago?

most guys love sports, so that's not a negative.

"summers are much more pleasant" -- complete absolute and utter bullshit. The summers are broasting, and the beach would offer some respite were there not swarms of vicious biting flies that gnaw out chunks of your flesh. And as my sister, who went to college in Chicago, remarked, spring in Chicago lasts three days.

But maybe it's different in the Indiana suburbs of Chicago.

Most guys outside Chicago who love sports also have other interests, so yes that's a negative for Chicago. That's why "nightlife" in Chicago means sports bars. only. If you can make it to one without getting murdered first.

chicago is where you move to if you are not talented enough or good looking enough to make it in New York.

alanhart, once again you display your ignorance. this summer, Chicago had only several days that were above 90 degrees. when i visited in august, it was in the 70's and reasonably cool near the lake. i can't say the same for NYC.

i see no evidence that chicago guys are more obsessed with sports than other cities. you can't really blame them, since the cubs and white sox are doing so well this year. besides, what's so wrong about loving sports? do you prefer spending your time drinking latte while reading the new york times and then going to a broadway show?

chicago guys are more obsessed with sports because thier women are uglier than ours. New York has the most beautiful women from all over the world. We are out enjoying our women.

chicago is filled with a ton of fat cankled Mary Margerat's and Margerat Mary's therefore the guys spend a lot of time on sports.

Any chance we will be able to put a moratorium on attacking Chicago on this New York real estate website? Every other message board is getting hijacked by this ridiculous topic.

Petrfitz, I think your comment about the LES is interesting. My impression is that a lot of the people who hang out there are young finance types. The developments there would seem to cater to the financially capable who like the location with a bit of the funkiness removed. So I'm surprised those buyers / new renters aren't in finance.

So let's say they aren't. I don't think submarkets of Manhattan are that isolated. If demand, and prices, fall in Tribeca, the LES will definitely be affected. Everyone has their favorite neighborhood but will take their second best if they can't afford the first. A cheap Tribeca might diminish interest in the LES by taking away demand, just as a cheaper LES might take people away from Murray Hill. The point is that I don't think LES, or any other neighborhood, will be very protected in a prolonged finance downturn.

10thstreet - you havent spent much time in the LES have you? There are very few if any finance types in our neighborhood. And thats the way we like it.

Right. No finance types in the LES. Sure thing.

petr, i thought you were gay? why would you care about women in nyc?
nyc10022, are you a sutton place frat boy?

no we kept your ilk abover Houston street in the East Village.

tenthstreet, i think you're possibly the first person to comment on realestate in the last 20 posts.

there are finance types in LES, but 10th is right, most of them are young, barely starting out. 1st/2nd year analysts on just 60-65k base. a lot of back office types, who would be living in say jersey city otherwise, inhabit the LES sharing apts. You'd be hardpressed to find a 30+ finance guy in LES.

thank god

First of all, do you really think a block or two makes a difference?

But I would actually guess that there are MORE finance types in the LES rather than the east village. The LES is trying to fashion itself into some sort of a hotspot (dark room, stanton social, new thompson hotel etc). That attracts the finance types you loathe, as well as (shudder) people from Jersey and Long Island. The east village is more of a real neighborhood, and the bars and restaurants tend to be frequented by people who live there.

Besides, I thought you didn't live in the LES but just owned some tenament there. What, did you buy the penthouse in Blue? Or do you live in one of your crap buildings on Ridge or Attorney street?

LES is horrendous. are there any decent apartment buildings there? they all look like absolute sh*t.

only the far south and west side of Chicago are worse than LES.

re: malraux

Dude, I think you've wound up being unintentionally ironic. Do you have any idea what sort of pain the non-profit funding world has ALREADY seen? Particularly in the arts?

The greatest institutions will certainly thrive, but 1) it'll be more due to estate contributions as baby boomers age (NOT due to anything having to do with the state of the economy for current wage-earners) and 2) all but the absolutely best-funded institutions will suffer.

Pointing to the strength of non-profit arts as a draw that will help sustain the city during a downturn seems entirely a case of the egg swallowing the chicken to me.

These rufus threads are retarded. Chicago is a great city, but it is totally different from NYC. I myself would take NYC 100% of the time, but I don't really get why they have to be compared side by side like this is some sort of caged death fight. Rufus, if you don't like this place don't live here its really that simple. Do you seriously have nothing better to do than spend your time on a NYC real estate board claiming Chicago is better? What exactly does that accomplish and how do you think that reflects upon Chicagoans? If you hate the projects here then either go away so you don't have to look at them or become a city planner and actually try to change things. Otherwise I really don't see why you need to start multiple threads and make people dumber with this nonsense.

rufus - you should stop talking about things you know nothing about. The LES is one of the top neighborhoods in Manhattan.

evillager - I do live in the LES. i live in 2 of the properties I own. Its a huge place with a huge garden and a private parking lot. much better than your 1 bedroom walkup.

Roofie do you know anything about the history of NYC? I cant tell if you are trying to be funny here...

"LES is horrendous. are there any decent apartment buildings there? they all look like absolute sh*t."

To keep this simple maybe you should just rent the Gangs of NY to start.

Wow, a regular Nostradamus. rufus nice try.

Private parking lot? Impressive? I'm just going to have to hold out until they invent some sort of a place where you can pay each month to park your car. Let's hold out hope!

evillager it is easy to see you are green with envy. I have 10 parking spots. What would that cost you per month?

parking spots -- that's one of the things that makes Chicago so ugly!

alan mine are in manhattan

Yes, I followed that. I was just commenting on how you were bragging about something that's a blight on the landscape.

petrfitz, how much to rent one?

they are not for rent. i let friends and family park for free. also very useful for guests to drop bye.

alan they are not a blight if they are off street and behind gates.

Legal, permitted curb cut?

You're right, I'm very jealous. In fact, I think to myself all the time how I wish I had ten parking spots. Especially on Ridge or Attorney street.

That is where you live, right?

"...re: malraux -Dude, I think you've wound up being unintentionally ironic. Do you have any idea what sort of pain the non-profit funding world has ALREADY seen? Particularly in the arts?...Pointing to the strength of non-profit arts as a draw that will help sustain the city during a downturn seems entirely a case of the egg swallowing the chicken to me...."

What's interesting to me is that it appears (because I don't know anybody's actual age and/or how long they've lived their adult working lives in Manhattan) that nobody really recalls all the doom-n'-gloom predictions tossed around about Manhattan in 1989/90 (if they were living and working here then, which I don't think many on this board were) - "It's the end of an era"... "Manhattan will never be able to recover"..."The arts are as good as dead in NYC - it's over"..."Manhattan will be quickly become a second class city like (to avoid badmouthing anyone specific please insert the name of your personal favorite second class city here)"..."This real estate bust will crush NYC permanently and real estate will never recover"...blah blah blah blah blah blah..........

I'm not a polyanna by any stretch, and absolutely recognize the seriousness of the current situation. But if there's ANYTHING I've learned, it's that neither I, nor ANY of you have ANY F$CKIN' IDEA what Manhattan will be like again in another 20 years from now - let alone 5 or 7. So when I see retarded posts like those rufus spews out day after day, it makes me laugh - because I know for a fact if he/she had been living in Manhattan in 1989, they would have said the same exact thing "... it looks like NYC's days are numbered...within 10 years, NYC will be the Detroit of the east coast..." And we all know what 1999/2000 was like in Manhattan.

So, hrdnitlr, of course, in the short run, for a few years, yeah, it's pretty obvious that things will be tougher (and I'll be presented with some excellent residential real estate investment opportunities!). But that's short term. My point is that the tenor of rufus' ridiculous OP rant that 'Manhattan will become within 10 years the equivalent of what Detroit is now' is just assinine.

malraux: I hear you, and I don't disagree with you. But I don't think 10 years from now is what most people are preoccupied with. I think there's still people on the board who still don't concede that "it's pretty obvious that things will be tougher ... in the short run."

New topics on the board created just in the last 24 hours include "More evidence of Manhattan housing strength", "Where is the NYC/ RE crash ???", "They just can't keep a good city down", "Ge whiz --Manhattan Rental Market Remains Strong".

The tenacity with which people cling to optimism even about the near term suggests to me that some people are going to be really surprised if things keep weakening. That seems like the seeds for some irrational behavior on the downside, once the trend becomes so evident that it can't be denied anymore.

hrdnitlr:

And I hear you, and don't disagree with your assertions directly above, either! But if I may, please just look at the OP of this thread in specific, and you'll see what I was trying to comment on.

Good point. OP is too draconian.

From bloomberg: Amity Shlaes
" Wall Street's very success also made the city vulnerable,
for it supplied an outsized share of tax revenue. In 2006, the
top 1 percent of taxpayers paid 48 percent of the income tax, up
from 41 percent a decade ago and 34 percent a decade before that.
The Crash is like a second body blow after the one on Sept.
11. The offices will empty: Lehman alone represents 4 million
square feet of space: 3 million occupied and 1 million in shadow
or unleased offices. Persichetti predicts commercial real estate
prices will drop 20 percent and sees average rents slumping."

There was no "success" on Wall Street. They didnt create new wealth. All they did was pillage equity was that was going to be created over the next 10 years. they took money that was going to made in future years and pocketed for themselves now.

malraux, like you, I remember the dire predictions for New York made in '89/'90. If New York goes into an ugly downturn in quality of life, no doubt Pittsburgh, Columbus, St. Louis, Charlotte, Cleveland and Nashville will as well. (Chicago, however, the Paris of the Western Hemisphere, is immune.)

About non-profits' funding in the future, though - Blair Tindall's bestseller about the freelance classical musician scene, "Mozart in the Jungle," discusses with the devastating effects of the post-Black-Monday recession. She argues that the golden days for arts organizationswere the '60s and '70s, but not linking that golden age solely to economic conditions. She describes a classical music funding bubble popping in the '90s. Formerly busy, prosperous freelancers had to take gigs they would have declined before that '90s recession. You can get some idea of the impact Wall Street downturns have on arts institutions by looking at lists of donors.

For there to be a "brain drain" from NYC, doesn't it mean that there are brains there?

I guess chicago doesn't have that problem... no brains to begin with.

Today, after many many years of believing in evolution and natural selection, I may go into the Sarah Palin camp of creationism. There is no way Petrfitz - on either intelligence or any other quality - would survive. How can such genes outlive the brains bestowed upon the average or even below average homo-sapien. Today I denounce evolution and accept unintelligent design.

lowery/malraux: I have a couple of friends who are professional, classical string players in their 40s. Extremely talented, but living very modestly, as many full-time musicians do. I've heard many stories from them about the devolution of New York's classical music scene. The one quote I remember clearest: when talking about broadway jobs that symphonic players would have turned their noses up at in the past "...now they're eating each olther for these gigs."

Another friend is an opera buff, and has told me, sadly, about dwindling subscriptions at the Met as older patrons die off without being replaced by younger enthusiasts.

Sorry, nothing constructive here, just a couple of sad anecdotes.

hey, tenemental - read "Mozart in the Jungle." She has some anecdotes that are great, and there are stories she tells that sum things up nicely. What your friends tell you is true. Blair Tindall describes her low point being car pooling it up to suburban and small-town pickup orchestras in Connecticut or Mid Hudson Valley with other people in her neighborhood, standing outside on the street corners waiting for someone's used car to come along, pitch in for the gas..... to play what?

It goes all the way down from the Metropolitan Opera to the small community private music schools, where children take their violin lessons on Saturdays (except when they're unemployed....)