shiller's the man ....

No - a VIDEO is worth a 1000 words -

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2757699799528285056

Yeah but we all know that case/shiller doesn't cover Manhattan so it's totally irrelevant.

There are some interesting & telling price charts that are directly correlated to Manhattan commercial real estate property values. These REITs have heavy concentration in the NYC commercial RE markets and rental apt. buildings.

The stock market is far quicker to discount reality than the slow to adjust residential market.

Check out the 3 year price charts @ Yahoo Finance or Bigcharts for:

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO): High $137/share in 1Q 2007. Today, $87.

SL Green Properties (SLG): High $155/share in !Q 2007. Today, $62.

so fed how much would you say manhattan apts have appreciated since the 1890s prior to the mid-1990s 10, 20, 1000%? the water just tastes better in manhattan than in the rest of the country.

And don't forget... Shiller also called the dot bomb stock market bubble as well. "Irrational Exuberance" was the title of the book...

Shiller's first edition of "Irrational Exuberance" called the stock bubble; the second edition of the same title added a chapter on the R/E bubble. I'm not sure if he's the greatest economist or whatnot but he certainly is 2-for-2 in spotting oncoming disasters. Should've had him on the Titanic...

obama should take him as treasury secretary rather than that conflict of interest we have right now ....

Obama isn't likely to be elected, regardless of what the polls say.

Admiral, you are showing the same old republican blindness that made us fall as much down as we are now....I don't get it, is it a superiority complex? a sense of eternal entitlement? What makes you feel that americans will vote a party that has mismanaged the economy and the war at this extent? This kinda bottom is not enough for u? Are you really looking forward to a war with Russia and the total collapse of all americans' savings?

Mimi, sorry, I should've been more clear. you have jumped to the wrong conclusions. What i meant was, the Bradley effect will take a huge toll on Obama.

Anyway, I've taken the thread horribly off topic. Apologies.

"Obama isn't likely to be elected, regardless of what the polls say."

This has been my conclusion as well. I grew up in Alabama. It's uglier than most who don't know believe. I would love to be proved wrong by a populace that has left the dark ages, but I'm not holding my breath.

"I'm not sure if he's the greatest economist or whatnot but he certainly is 2-for-2 in spotting oncoming disasters"

I think there is some luck involved in the timing, but there is definitely skill involved. We're not talking about a guy who guess, we're talking about the guy who pretty much was the only one to look at the RE markets will a rational approach. He came to his conclusions because he was the one to chart the real long term returns, and even built a better system of comparison (the S&P/CS index is based on his theories).

My take is, anybody who saw those numbers could have predicted what would have happened, he just happened to be the guy with the foresight to develop the system to see those numbers.