Yale Club Residential Real Estate Symposium

Lets see... a bunch of brokers saying "we don't see price declines".

In a Manhattan market that declined (median) 10 fucking percent... as noted in THEIR OWN REPORTS.

Can't call it anything but lying through their teeth..

nyc10022 - did you even read the highlights or attend the event? Thats not even close to what the discussion stated. Why do you make a statement without knowing what you are talking about?

I'll spell it out for you NYC10022: T-R-Y R-E-A-D-I-N-G!!

NR - "Buyers want to get downturn risks priced into their purchase." Most of my buyers have moved to the sidelines and are waiting for those discounted prices. I am advising them to do so. I would expect the Upper East Side and Upper West side to hold their values the best. I think areas where there has been lots of new supply added like Downtown, Midtown West and the West Village will get hurt more than other areas.

NR - The Hamptons are going down! (repeatedly)

NR - Sellers are anchoring to peak 2007 types of prices of $1,400 per square foot. They have not yet faced the reality that to move their properties they will have to compete with other listings and offer buyers a margin of safety. I think forces are conspiring for a significant break in prices, it hasn't happened yet, but buyers are going to be in charge soon.

NR - A lot of investors are seriously looking at curve steepening trades. As a result of all these bailouts, the government is going to be printing, printing printing. With massive treasury issuance upcoming to fund these rescue packages/bailouts, debasing the currency, we could be setting ourselves up where long-term rates are eventually going to go up substantially. The fed can control the short end, but not the long end. Should the credit quality of the USA come into question, should the foreign funders become unfriendly or sell their holdings, the long end will see rising rates and that will affect borrowing costs for everyone. This could be the 5th or 6th chapter of the housing slowdown in the years to come

NR - I see a 2 - 4 year downturn in the New York City market. Did I mention that the Hamptons are going down! Manhattan is still considered a 'sexy' investment, as opposed to other markets that are completely hated and filled with fierce sell side competition. We are not there yet here, although the ingredients for the recipe are setting up. The correction is likely to be an 'L' shaped adjustment.

Perhaps you might want to check the notes yourself...

"Last 4 weeks we have seen a lower pace of sales, but not seeing price declines."

you are a complete fool - Melissa Cohen said that based on data she collects from Manhattan Mortgage Company. She is NOT a broker.

"I have not seen appreciable softening in the luxury market."

still reading...

> She is NOT a broker.

Did you just say that the mortgage broker isn't a broker?

I'd cut it with the personal insults if I were you...

Perhaps you are reading a set of notes other than the ones on your site?

Oh I see, you will pick a few lines from the President of Manhattan Mortgage Company, completely ignore every comment I made, and then consolidate those few lines from Melissa to mean that real estate brokers are lying through their teeth.

Got it. great analysis and interpretation. Dont forget to ignore all my comments, and I am a broker. Clearly you are.

> NR - The Hamptons are going down! (repeatedly)

I think they just admitted that there is a nationwide decline, too.

Did I say that *you* were lying?

No, but you had no problem hurling insults. Perhaps you should do some reading yourself.

" I am not yet seeing a big difference in price changes among Manhattan markets, based on contracts being signed now."

Which notes were you reading again?

Am I here? Am I really having this conversation?

I'm Noah. I publish UrbanDigs. I am a real estate broker. You are talking to me. Why do you ignore all my comments to back up that brokers are lying through their teeth. Why do you keep looking at what Melissa Cohen says, she is not a real estate broker! She owns MMC and answered mortgage related questions and questions related to rates, volume flow, loan amounts, underwriting standards, etc..

You commented on Manhattan Real Estate marketplace and made a comment that real estate brokers are lying through their teeth. You going to tell me now you reffered to mortgage brokers? Come on now.

Why don't you read what I said, since Im a real estate agent. After you do read that, how can you make a statement like you originally did!

Ugh - what's with the nastiness nyc10022? urbandigs offers an honest look at what's going on with that panel recap. I've run into my fair share of unpleasant brokers, but let's appreciate a good one when we find one. Noah, thanks for the recap (or thank Jeff, rather) - good to get another perspective out there.

Thanks for the comments, NR; I at least found the article to be pretty interesting. And yes, it is rather extraordinary to hear a real estate broker give it to you straight. Thanks.

NYC10022: Don't forget to take your meds - it's really important.

you in a fighting mood because your stocks are getting whacked? You know Ive been discussing this credit crisis play by play publicly and in depth since JUNE 2007 and publicly discussed my bearish sentiment on Manhattan and provided reports from my own observations in field since late 2007.

Or do you hate the world?

> Ugh - what's with the nastiness nyc10022?

Look above and get it straight... UD started with the personal name calling. And he continues.
I did nothing of the sort.

Not to mention, I said nothing specifically about anything HE said, in fact, I've said his honesty is refreshing in the past.

In this case, he seems to be freaked out about something.

> you in a fighting mood because your stocks are getting whacked?

No, actually, doing great today... but thanks for asking.

of course you are.

When you pick up the SSOs at 7800 (and some more today just over 8k), yes, I'd say so....

Oh I did, amongst other indexes/etfs. But I sold them all late Monday and early Tuesday. Now Im buying back and have 75% of the position back on, some 1200 Dow points lower than where I sold.

But why would you believe what I say here anyway.

I do believe you. You should calm down.

I had 97% of the first batch of SSO sold off at that time as well. Started buying back slowly on way down, and went a bunch in at 8200-8300.

So, good for us both. I'm genuinely happy for you.

UD- you said, "I would expect the Upper East Side and Upper West side to hold their values the best.."
May I ask if you uniformly apply that to the entire UES/UWS or do you break it down further? Also, what do you think will become of the new dev's coming online on the UES?
BTW-thanks for your posts, I do appreciate your candid analysis.

UD, if it wasn't clear, my apologies.... I didn't mean to rope you in with my general sentiment about brokers. I consider you an exception (maybe the only one I know).

brokersjokers - the questions were not published, and I cant remember all, but I believe the question that I responded this way to was, "If Manhattan does see a declining market over the next few years, which neighborhoods are exposed to more risk and which are exposed to less risk", to that extent.

It always breaks down further but in general, I responded this way because for most part UES/UWS are family neighborhoods and well established residential neighborhoods with a mix of parks, retail, bars, restaurants, cleaners, delis, subway stations, good public/private schools, etc., all the little things that say a FiDi doesnt offer. Now, most neighborhoods in Manhattan have these things, but UES/UWS are perceived as good neighborhoods to settle down for a growing family and as such, I view as ore stable.

You could of course micro it down further, 70s/low80s and 3rd avenue is certainly more attractive than East End Avenue, etc..but this response really was more genaralized. I think I discussed fidi, e village, midtown west, where there was many condos built and a generally younger population. Now, UES/UWS also have their share of new devs to deal with and I dont think these hoods are immune, just a bit less exposed and likely to see lower percentage drops.

In terms of new devs in UES, I havent checked in on sales lately but I would expect to see your pockets of distress if the whole city corrects. After all, how many risk takers on wall street & foreigners bought new devs at $1300/sft + in past 12-18 months; as time goes on we will see which consumers overexposed themselves, living beyond their means, bought too much house, and are swimming naked. These pockets will come out.

no worries nyc...I didnt like the general stereotype and I strive very hard to earn an honest, credible reputation. Thats why I blog.

You have your work cut out for you. ;-)

And I think I agree with UD, particularly on the UE sentiment.

I think its been underpriced relative to the general Manhattan market for some time. Fewer and fewer people seem to want to live there because its lack of "hip" factor. But I think it has so much going for it that I don't need to list, and I think it will come back to the front at some point again (maybe with the 2nd ave subway). Neighborhoods always do. I don't think it got as much of the boom, so I don't think it gets as much of the bust.

Noah, any thoughts on the outlook for the Highline / Gallery district of western Chelsea. Seems like one gorgeous new development going up after another. But I can't quite figure out who will be able to afford these places given the new reality. It is hip, though.

Topper - Not really. Some of these bldgs are real nice, but it wont matter if the slowdown hits NYC hard in years to come. This story will take years to play out and there will be opportunity, which unfortunately means distress for some.

urbandigs what is your POV on Gramercy Park? I just purchased there earlier this year and while my plan was and remains "in there for the long haul" (probably til carry me out), I'd obviously like to see the neighborhood retain the most possible value and quickly regain whatever it loses

I think that area is on the higher quality side

I think we will crest over 9k in inventory in Q1 09. Once seller's start to capitulate, price drops will start to happen rather quickly. People who need mortgages won't be able to get one if the unit they want to buy is 500k above an identical unit two floors down. Seller's know this, so they will be forced to lower prices. Right now, the market is so bad that there are not even enough qualified or liquid buyers to buy apartments for a steal. That means that we don't even know how overpriced apartments really are.
I am glad to hear you made money on that little bear trap, Noah. When I see an 11% gain like that, I can't wait for the sell off that is sure to follow. I am holding off until 3 today to see if we have another nice drop, if we do I will pick up some more nwl and mhp.

UD- Once again, thanks for the insight, it is appreciated.
nyc 10022-I also agree with your general sentiment on the UES but think that more eastern and particularly northern parts of it did benefit alot from the run up and so these areas may be more susceptible to drops.

> nyc 10022-I also agree with your general sentiment on the UES but think that more eastern and
> particularly northern parts

I don't know if I agree with that. Leave out a couple of isolated buildings, and I saw a lot of the same generic stock just sit there. A lot of white brick co-ops all over the place, particularly far east. On the rental side, these are some of the cheapest in the city. Also, the UES used to have a LARGE psf advantage over the rest of the city, and it no longer does. To me, that is a pretty clear sign of the relative decline.