Buy Now? I don't think so!!!

But That is not NYC looser!!

yawn

blogs are NOT FACT...they are people expressing their opinions!!!!!

The stock market is up, interest rates are low, the baby boomers are moving on by the millions. Why wouldn't you be buying right now? Get ahead of the curve!

lol, obvious broker above ^_^

the ONLY people that should buy are the ones that found a deal, i.e. a sale that is down to earth, meaning a seller that already reduced and really needs to sell

ALL new construction, new to market, or units not already reduced need time for the sellers to reduce

bottom line: wait and see or make a low ball offer and wait for them to take it

BTW, I signed a contract last month on a 3 bedroom

To above:
I take it you found a "deal" in your recent purchase. Do you have any stock tips?!? Properties being reduced are ones that have been overlooked by many others. Price is only half the equation in buying a home; Quality is the other. Do you compromise quality to save a buck? Some do but most regret it later.
If you find a property that meets your needs buy it now. Otherwise you will regret missing out on the choice property to save a couple percent.

Yeah, I was seriously thinking about buying in Dec, but the more I look at the NYC market, the more I'm convinced. Absent a bargain, now just ain't the time.

You buy now because you need a place to live and plan to live in that place for several years. You look around and find the best price you can negotiate in the place you want to live. If you choose to rent, that's your business. But, bear in mind, rents are pretty darn exorbitant in Manhattan which, not coinbcidentally, is one of the things driving the real estate market. If you think you're so smart that you can outguess an entire market, then be my guest and sit on the sidelines and wait things out. Meanwhile, prices have not tumbled into the Hudson notwithstanding an avalanche of negative press over the past year. Chew on that smartypants market timer.

blogs are NOT FACT …they are people expressing their opinions!!!!!

my deal:
pre-war 3 bedroom in manhattan, 1200 sq ft-top floor nice view, 300k needs reno (but i can implant my tastes)
thats my deal

you bought a 1200 s.f. place in manhattan for $300k? No way, don't believe that for a second.

If you don't mind me asking, is it a co-op in Harlem?

ha ha ha....

no not harlem, and i did negotiate, i paid 300k cash and 2 years mt. in advance

I got it. I wish I had $300K in cash ...

Thats a great deal

$300k down +2 yrs mortgage in advance. Where is the rest of the deal? What are the payments and for how long is the remaining term?

Yeah, right. $300K for a 1200SFT top floor prewar apartment. I think Sherman may have set the Wayback Machine for 1979 (the last time Manhattan had $250/sft real estate).

Oh yeah, and he is moving into the apartment with his girlfriend Kate Moss.

...and they threw in a new BMW M5 to park in his free parking space.

Pathological.

If his grandma wants to sell another unit, please let us know!

I bought a 1201 square foot apartment for $299K. Beat that. And I'm moving in with Heidi Klum. Seal is pissed, but he recognizes that I got a good deal. I'm letting him use my magic carpet for a weekend though.

....here we go again, another blog about buy vs. sell. same argument, everyone's going to listen only to advice that suits them.

if you're in it for the short term or unsure of your job/location for next few years, don't buy. if you need a place for the long term, then buy. end of discussion.

Regarding the last post. Huh?

Did you even read the last 10+ posts?

I just found this on Streeteasy, so i guess there are deals out there
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/31509-coop-400-convent-avenue-central-harlem-new-york

like it!
wow, I wonder if that is a one-of-a-kind thing or not~somebody got lucky

It's an HFDC building with income limits, so it should be under market.

All he has to do is list the address, then the sale can be verified through propertyshark.com
end of story...

what does HFDC mean?
why a limit for income???

>>You buy now because you need a place to live and plan to live in that place for several years.

The question is, How do you define several years? Fifteen? Okay, sure. But isn't anything less than that a risk? Prices did not drop significantly in 2006 (maybe 10 percent). Isn't that just delaying the inevitable? Prices cannot go up interminably here while they drop precipitously in the rest of the country, despite the strong underlying economic factors (low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment). The bottom won't drop out here, as it will elsewhere. But another 15 percent to 20 percent drop seems reasonable. Which means studios and one bedrooms are money-losing propositions.

I love collecting rent!

what does HFDC mean? why a limit for income???

1/10/07

Read entire blog @ www.urbandigs.com

"BUYERS ARE OUT THERE IN FULL FORCE!

If you don't believe me, fine; I really don't care. I don't have to do this. But if I was a buyer or a seller, this is the kind of reporting that I would be MOST interested in; that is, what is happening RIGHT NOW! My adivce to you is this:

AS A BUYER - Don't try to low-ball or wait out a housing downturn if you plan on signing a contract in the next 1-3 months! If you do, you will NOT get the response you hope for as the seller's broker most definately is reporting the rise in activity to their client. If you choose to wait until March or so you may not find the inventory as attractive as it is today. If all this buyer activity results in what I expect it to, you will later on see sales volume come in very strong during the months of January & February, removing alot of unsold inventory that has built up over the past few months.

AS A SELLER - No one can tell you when to sell your home. That is your call. But, if you have been planning on selling your home in the next 3-6 months, it might be worthwhile to get it ACTIVE NOW and get in on some of this action! You may even be able to price slightly higher than you were original thinking to test out the market, as it is times like these (that is, a surge in buyer demand) where sellers get their price or more a good percentage of the time. Don't overprice tremendously unless you have a huge terrace, incredible views, or an unbelievable renovation (although the first two are the best reasons for pricing higher as Im not convinced buyers will pay top dollar for a very high end renovation job)."

To reply to the poster who asked what HFDC means (please create an account and log in):
http://www.uhab.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=Page.viewPage&pageId=480&parentID=471&nodeID=1#13

Holy brokerness

Man, do I want to "get in on some of this action"!!!!!!!!!!!! *Barfs*

thank you for that link:)

urbandigs is a blog run by a REAL ESTATE BROKER!!!! He clearly has an interest in getting people to think people are buying and selling - ha! I don't believe it for a minute lol

the prices for larger homes hasnt skipped a beat. 3-4 bedroom 2200+ feet are picking up steam. The smaller units will soon follow IMHO. The selloff is over

i am not a broker

You don't believe that he reported an increase in buyer interest the last couple of weeks?
Why is that hard for you to believe? Maybe you also think Manhattan is shrinking... :)

Studios are selling well.

the 10m+ market is crazy hot

the 100M+ market is GOING CRAZY!!!! EVERYONE IS BUYING!!! PROMISE I'M NOT A BROKER BUT YOU SHOULD SELL EVERYTHING YOU HAVE AND GET IN ON THIS CRAZY HOT SIZZLING MARKET WHILE YOU CAN!! THE 100m+ HOMES WON'T LAST LONG - PROMISE...TRUST ME.....REALLY!!!!!

Positively Beckettian broker soliloquies abound...with nothingness before them, they plead, beg and wheedle an empty theater. The crowd is gone. The End.

I love how anyone who has flown on a plane is a travel agent and anyone who owns a condo or co-op is a real estate broker. While no one can predict the future, and while real estate is suffering outside of Manahttan we are now in the midst of a market surge here is the City and I have had 2 accepted offers this week alone and nothing was "a deal". History has shown that those who wait to buy end up paying more in the long run. I am a broker and have nothing to gain personally by saying any of this as no one knows my name.

The NYT and NY Magazine have been running cover stories for the part 5 years about the "bubble" and the fact is a bubble cannot exist in real estate. Unlike stocks, which can be bought and sold in a matter of seconds, the average time on the market in mnahhtan is now 150 days. If anyone changes their mind or puts their apartments on the market impulsively they can choose not to sell. Sure there are ups and downs in the market and that's healthy.

And if you are in the market to buy, be different and do some research on the broker that you you as brokers ar not all the same. Most people spend more time researching which car to buy than which broker they use to buy their largest single asset they own.

my low (rent controlled) apt has paid for my landlords entire building since i lived there for the 10+ years

thats why i bought a place~

My take on the urbandigs article was: "Buy now. Buy anything. Just buy. Please."

"Oh, and if you're a seller, good time to sell too. Here's my phone number."

Question: How much lower than asking price is a low ball offer? 10%? 20? under asking? Or is that considered normal these days.

A broker friend of mine told me that the only thing that is keeping the market where it is - is that someone will want to sell their place for xx dollars because that is what the guy 2 floors above sold his for - and thinks they deserve that outrageous price too - however they won't recognize that it is a different market right now so their place sits around for 6-9 months.

Oh and we shouldn't buy anything until all the I-Banker bonuses have been paid out - October at the earliest.

>>the fact is a bubble cannot exist in real estate

Just because you call something a "fact," doesn't make it so. That's like the president saying "the fact is, we're winning the war against terrorism." What you just said is actually the opposite of fact; it's speculation. Speculation is when you convince people that just by owning something, you will automatically turn a profit. Not only have we not learned from past housing downturns, but New Yorkers are apparently blind to what is happening elsewhere in the country. No, New York won't turn into Naples, Florida. Not by a long stretch. But if prices don't drop significantly this spring, we're just delaying the inevitable.

Business Week says it will be fifteen years before prices return to their peak. Fortune says New York can expect 15 percent price drops over the next two years. But a wealthy Manhattan broker who blogs says "New York is different" and everyone runs to his defense. Want to know what a bubble is? It's what you're living in.

Everyone gets paid by late February. Most should at least have their numbers by the end of this month.

"A bubble cannot exist in real estate"

That is possibly the most asinine thing I've heard this year. Or last.

For the record, I am buying. Also for the record, I feel relatively good about it, and pretty good that it will come out nicely in the long run. But don't kid yourself. The market is softer now than when I started looking. Inventory is higher. It's a stronger market than the rest of the country, but if I had to guess I'd say it will probably get a bit uglier before it gets better.

The bonus crowd will help. I get the feeling that there's more activity than there has been since the early part of last year. But you cannot convince me that the New York market is out of the woods yet. That's my opinion, but at least I'm rational enough to realize that's all anyone has at any particular point in a market.

Banker: The people who get high bonuses have already bought in the last few years, the analysts who makes a paltry bonus cannot afford the downpayments in the Manhattan market hence the low vacancy rates. Prices are definitely falling in the outer boroughs just by looking how long some long the places have been on the market.

My household income is over 400k, no kids, and I can barely afford a 1bd - there is something wrong with this - you can't convince me that 90% of people who live in Manhattan make more than that - I pay 2400/month for a 1bd/1.5bath place that would probably sell for 800k - prices are totally out of whack and I only can see them dropping. Does it piss me off that I can only afford a 1bd - yes it does, but I also don't think it is rational - prob. 5% of households in NYC make more than mine. I'm fine renting, saving $$ and making $$ in equities and other investments, but am intelligent and won't buy until prices come back into line - if rents go up to 7000/month for my place then maybe, please people, this market can't last...

I disagree with that assessment. Here's why:

Bonuses have only rebounded in the last few years. 2005 represented the first payday for a great many bankers, and was unlikely to make any of them buyers by themselves. Every year group (bankers are categorized by class of entry) is large and represents a new group of buyers. So even if you were stacking up bonus years, this year really represents the first year of affordability for many, many bankers.

Secondly, analysts make a lot more today than they did when I was a junior investment banker. A first year analyst (first year out of undergrad) makes up to $175k. Third years are making well over $200. Those are the very entry level professionals. It's hard to argue that they CAN'T afford studios and one bedrooms. The sheer number of analysts on the Street would astound you. The question is whether they are really buyers or not (after all, they are at very transient points in their lives and careers).

For associate level bankers, all-in comp will generally run between $300-600 this year, depending on year group. Many of them come saddled with debt from their MBA programs, and take a few years to dig themselves out. Taxes and living expenses take out a fair bite, so they are generally renters until very late in their associate tenures. However, a fairly large number of them are hitting that point now. I'd say that a good portion of the associate class of 2003 is hitting the $1mm-1.5mm market in force this year. Particularly good savers or aggressive buyers among the 04s may also be in the mix. That's not a small number given the inventory. Whether they move the needle or not is pure speculation, and a question I couldn't begin to answer.

For my own junior bankers, I've been advising those of them who don't have to buy right now to approach the issue with caution. Some of them will stay on the sidelines, and some have decided to jump in. The VPs, directors, and MDs clearly have firepower to spare. Many of them already own, but the bonus pools have been good. I know many who are in the market to upgrade (and many to buy for the first time, now that we're finally out of the debacle of the '02-'03 period).

As a group, bankers can be fairly conservative on big purchases, because when things go badly, investment bankers can find themselves on the unemployment line very, very quickly. Consecutive up years make a big difference for buying momentum (versus the first year of an up trend).

"bonuses have only rebounded in the last few years...." yes - this is when the prices went crazy - I think most of these people (save maybe your class of 2003 and there aren't THAT many of them to drive the market) have already bought.

Anon poster before my previous post, I agree that affordability is a big problem (for everyone). But I'm not sure I believe pricing is going to come way down either, since it's a question of marginal inventory versus marginal income.

Firstly, I'm not an '03 by a longshot. Secondly, this year's bonuses will only bring us back, more or less, to the level they hit in 2001. In fact, this year the VPs will make slightly less than I did that year. The associates may do a smidgeon better.

The housing market was driven by low interest rates, a lousy stock market and internal momentum from frenzied buyers.

Wall Street handed out a number $0 bonuses at all levels in 2003 (and the housing market was up a lot from '00-'01), so I'd find it hard to argue that we were the ones driving up housing when most of us were fighting to just have a job versus in '01 when we were on the tail end of 8 straight years of record bonuses.

Look, I may be wrong, and I admit that. However, a lot of people are saying a lot of things about the banker crowd that just doesn't reflect reality.

Mr Banker-I have tried to highlight earlier that wall st has tons of analyst types like me (and I did not pay for MBA either) and after doing some time our income/bonus/savings level hits a point to be able to afford. And every good year brings out a new pool of people who can buy and do buy. Am happy that I bought when many are scared to buy-could pick and choose.

The guy who makes 400K per year and can't afford more than a 1brm place is a moron. Most mortgage brokers will approve you for 3-4 times your yearly income. So he is saying he can't find a 2BR for between 1.2 and 1.6mm dollars? That is complete BS. If you put in a search on streeteasy in that range, he will find plenty of 2 and 3 br places.

If you think the market is going to go down and don't want to buy because of that OPINION, go ahead and say so. Just don't exxagerate and say you can't afford anything, because you can.

He is not trying to buy to live for 10 years. Many people think of real estate only as an investment where they can make a quick buck-note he is single. And maybe he's lying about salary-who knows?

Re: Wall Street bonuses, one thing to remember is that a lot of the new supply is new developments with modern fixtures and amenities. This is a lot more appealing to late 20s/early 30s Wall St. types who want to feel that they got "value" with their purchase. I think that a lot of the new condos are for the first time in a while giving young wall-streeters a reason to buy vs. some rundown prewar fixer-upper with a coop board that requires 30% down and 25% liquid assets.

Also, a big thing that everyone is forgetting is the amount of foreign investors/buyers who 1) See NYC as a much safer, much more livable place 2) Are seeing much better value given the weakness of the $USD. The euro has appreciated 50% vs. the dollar since 2001, the Korean won 28%, these are substantial movements that make US assets much cheaper to foreigners. I'm not saying that it is going to save the NYC real estate market, but as we all know, it just takes 1 person to buy an apartment at or close to an offer price.

I am so sure about the first assertion. But definitely a much weaker dollar does make real estate in the US much more attractive to foreign investors with euros.

Also about the $400K guy who can barely afford a 1 BR:

Do you have a gambling or major drug problem? Maybe you just drink too much, or spend too much on clothes.

Maybe you haven't been able to save any of your income and can't afford a down payment.

But, to say you can barely afford a 1 BR is perhaps an exageration. A conservative estimate of affordability (25% of gross monthly income) would indicate that you could easily afford the monthly payments on a loan of $1.1MM assuming 6% interest rate and $1500 in monthy maint/tax.

I'm pretty sure you could get a 1 BR for that...

Sorry I meant:
"I am *NOT* so sure about the first assertion."

I am the 400k guy - Yes - I was approved for 1.4MM mortgage (when I made even less $$) - and theoritically I COULD afford it - if I didn't buy anything else.....I'm sorry, but 7k/month in mortgage/maintance is not exactly what I'd call affordable for housing even on 400k/yr. To buy a 1bd apt in this city makes you house poor - I think many people in NYC are in my boat - maybe if they stretch they can afford something decent (less than I probalby could so I'd call it not even decent), but then they won't have money for anything else (trips, clothes, vactations, bars, eating out) and they can rent an apartment for less and the market is declining (you don't buy an asset that is declining in value unless you think it will go way back up and there is no way housing is going way back up anytime soon)...so I would say that I really cannot afford a 1bd for 1MM unless I spend money on nothing else. The properties in this town are really affordable to people making 1MM+ per year and those aren't even that great. There just aren't THAT many people making that much money - sure there are more in Manhattan than elsewhere in the country, but not enough to sustain these crazy prices....IMHO

To MR. 400K:

Buy a 1 BR for $800,000.
Put 20% Down.
$3200/Month
CC = $1000 (50% deductible)
After Tax Monthly Cost (38%) = $2,800/month

Only marginally more than the $2400/month you are paying and not subject to rent hikes and can be painted/decorated/generally fixed-up to your standards.

I don't see how the purchase market is so very different from renting?

I guess you will say that the $160K you put down is subject to greater risk than it is sitting in your bank account. This is true. Your bank account is yielding 2-3% at most on an after tax basis. If you make the right deal for a property in NY, I would think in the long term you would do better than that.

Great in theory, but you forget the 6% you have to pay when you sell (say in 5 years it is still 800k (very possible) so I have to pay 60k, plus the 1% mortgage recording tax I pay when I buy if it is a condo (another 8k), plus the transfer tax (usually 2% - another 16k), plus mansion tax (if over 1MM (another 10k) - plus all the other closing costs - so you end up paying 250k in downpayment and fees on an asset that is declining in value - luckily my money doesn't just sit in my checking account - I can easily get 7-10%/yr return on that 250k rather than have it depreciate it...also don't forget AMT - takes away your mortgage deductions so you end up paying a LOT more total for that 800k house than the simple math you put forth makes it appear.

meant to say I can easily get 7-10% return on that 250k rather than watch it decline with the value of my asset (condo/co-op) - math just doesn't add up at these prices.

Don't pay the transfer tax - that's a seller'c cost.

No mansion tax on an $800K apartment.

Other closing costs might run you another $2000, bringing total to $10K in real closing costs. If you add that to the mortgage it raises your costs by $50/month.

Selling costs are when you sell - why would you factor them into this analysis? Did you factor your apartment fee (15% of year's rent = $4320 = $360/month) into your rent comparison?

$640K mortgage will probably not trigger AMT - if it does than your combined tax rate is above 38% - which brings us back to my "simple math".

Where are you getting the 7-10% after tax return? I am genuuinely interested in this!

"Don’t pay the transfer tax – that’s a seller’c cost"

Don't you have to pay this fee with a new condo? Also, the purchase price will only be inflated by this amount if you choose not to pay.

Negotiate the purchase price, then negotiate the terms of the sale. Transfer tax is due from the seller not the buyer. The seller-provided contract will stipulate that you are to pay it. Don't agree to this. In the current market you will win this negotiation.

you have to factor in selling costs when buying an apartment - they have a HUGE effect on whether or not it makes sense to buy - 6% is a LOT of $$ - the brokerage fees alone would cover more than 2 years of his rent (and he said sell after 5 years)....

You should easily be able to afford 800K Apt on 400K salary.

What can you get for 800k? Nothing nice! Anon is making 400k/yr - should be able to get something better than a 1bd/1bath walk up don't you think? This is more than probably 95% of NYC households make, yet probably 80% of apartments in the city are bigger than that - this doesn't make sense.

Peter Comitini is also feeling The Surge: "Corcoran agent Mathew Mackay had an exceptional first week on the market at his open house in the West Village for a one bedroom condo priced at $875,000 (right)— over 60 interested parties showed up. Susan Singer's team reported over 25 parties at each of her northern Manhattan properties on Riverside Drive; and a Gramercy studio had multiple bids after 6 months on market... Virtually all the agents I spoke with, experienced relatively high traffic this weekend in every price category. It would have been more typical to have 5 to 10 parties show up since last Summer; so this is indeed a wind shift." [comitini.com" From curbed.com 1/11/07

Probably should get the upper floor of the Empire State Building for 800K, don't
you think? Maybe a full terrace included at no extra cost.

400k a year dude.....you NEED to SAVE for down payment

I make 60k a year, my wife stays home with our 1 month baby
we saved 48k in 2 years when we both worked, we just stopped eating out and drinking at bars etc.

Its all about relative lifestyle, i'm sure that for you, your disposable income is kinda high~
anyway we bought our first apt in manhattan and still have over 100k in the bank

settle down dude and stay off the meth or stop shopping at Barneys IMHO

ditto

Perhaps he cannot get anything nice for $800K. The point being made is that renting and owning offer similar economic returns which is consistent with almost any concept of competing products. Mr. $400K has overstated the costs of ownership and understated the costs of renting.

None of this changes the fact that NYC is a fucking expensive place to live.

Hey guys,

It would be nice if you could post with a registered account. It's kinda confusing to see all those posts from 'anonymous'.

Try making 400K out of Manhattan. Thats the reason property is expensive.
Maybe move to North Dakota and buy a house.

Mr 400k here - How have I overstated the costs of owning? You do have to pay all those fees and sink that money into the house when it could be MAKING 20k/year in the equities market and you could have money left to spend on things you really want (yes, I know markets do go down, but on average S&P goes up 13%/yr)...instead, you will probably lose all that money as the market continues to sink...on top of that the fees ARE realistic - you do pay 6% brokers fee (YES poster above is right you MUST add this into your buying calculation - it is a TON of money you will throw away when you sell), most sellers DO ask you to pay the transfer tax (and if they don't you will likely have to pay it when you sell so add another 2% onto the selling side), plus the rest of the closing costs - and if you buy over 1MM you have to pay a mansion tax of 1% and AMT does eat away at your mortgage deduction....I've researched buying and actually made a bid on a property back in June (thank god it wasn't accepted) and just took myself out of the market after I realized just how overpriced everything is....I may be wrong, but these prices cannoth hold up unless rents increase greatly.

To the poster who says I should save for a down payment, I do have the money, but even if I didn't dude, I live in NYC why would I want to stop eating out/going to shows/going to bars? What is the point of living here then?

AMT takes a lot of your deductions away, but you do NOT lose your mortgage interest deduction, it is one of the few that you get to keep. Although you can deduct only up to $1mm of mortgage principal's interest. Still, it helps a lot.

I made $350k last year and $550k this year, have $120k in student debt left between my wife (stay at home mom) and I, so very little savings. We just bought a $1.5mm apt. Yes it is a big stretch during your first year, but after 1 year you do get a nice check back from the IRS (from the interest deduction) and paying down $200k of principal will reduce our monthly payments by a bit.

7-10% after tax returns? Unless you are investing in a rock solid hedge fund, there are very few investments that are giving you 7-10% after tax (12-18% gross) consistently or without risk.

if you can get 13% market return, long term gains are only taxed at 15% - pretty easy to get 7-10% after tax I think. Think it is much more difficult in Hedge Funds where the managers eat 20% of your profits.

400k dude, this is 60k dude here, so whats your point again?
you said you cant afford a 1 bd in ur org post right?
everything is relative, so what are you shopping for? The Trump? The Mandarin? The Dakota?
whats ur point?
you say you cant a afford a place, but then you say you got cash for a down payment?
you make me sick

400k guy here again - let's call me Chuck...My point was that after putting down a down payment on a million dollar place, I could barely afford to do anything else b/c the monthly charges would be so high and that in general, all costs/fees considered I'd probably come out of the deal (after selling) far worse off than if I'd continued to rent.

I just decided that it wasn't worth sacrificing my lifestyle so you can OWN an apartment instead of renting one, I make more than MOST people who live in Manhattan so if I feel this way, I can only imagine how others who make less feel and quite frankly, if people in my income range really can't afford to buy without really stretching for something not much nicer than we rent, prices MUST come down, b/c there are probably only 5% or so of people who live here who can actually TRULY afford (still have money left after down payment/have money for vacations/eating out/bars etc. and dont' care about prices falling) aren't going to buy everything.

Chuck again - Not to mention that everything for sale in the 800-1MM range are tiny junky looking places.

Chuck~ 60k here, i'll remain anonymous cause i feel slightly inadequate:P
it is a lifestyle choice then that you need to make
1M in some places won't buy the lifestyle you want, i.e. Tribeca etc soho,
but since everything is relative, whatever rent you are paying is paying someone elses mortagage and lifestyle.
good luck

Chuckles,

If you don't want to buy anything, then don't. Yet don't complain about Manhattan prices. Good for you having the sense to figure out that you value lifestyle more than a home. It's not for everyone. You know the reasons for the prices as well as everyone here. To start, it's a wealthy island South of 110th Street (maybe getting too wealthy), and that's a LOT of wealth. Couple that with millions in foreign investments (Euros, Pounds, weak dollar, whatever) and finally tack on the fact that NY will always be an uber-desireable international destination. It's just the way it is here and if you haven't learned that after a few years on the Street, maybe it's not for you anymore. Maybe it's time to move out West or up to Beantown. Has anyone looked at the market up there? Some deals, people...deals!

I am looking to buy a one bedroom for $500k. I saw two apartments and the broker said
"Make An Offer, they both will look at any reasonable offer" I made an offer of $440 and it was accepted.

wow, are you kicking yourself thinking you could have offered 420? or even 410k?

I walked away from it because "gut" feeling the prices are going lower. I'm not crazy they're never going to be what they were 5-6 years ago but they are definitely coming down, especially in the studio and one bedroom apts.

studios are selling well.

because the prices on studios have dropped...that's why i switched to look at one bedrooms. I saw really nice studios for $290-$320.

$320000 for one room. Hold me back. *BARFS*

320K is the new 100K

I'd love to see what other people can come up with on estimates, but here is some interesting back-of-the envelope calcs for the 400k dude. Yes, at 400k, you probably do make more than the vast majority of Manhattan residents, but take a look at these numbers, which I've culled from the NYC Dept. of housing.

There are ~560,000 renter occupied apartments in Manhattan. Applying the overall NYC ratio of owned apts as a % of total apts, I get a total of 880,000 "occupied" apartments. Given the total Manhattan estimated population of 1.54 million, that is around 1.75 residents per apartment, which seems to pass the smell check. In other words, around 1/3 of all apartments are "owned" in manhattan. Now, a number of those owned apartments are "rental" units, but I don't know if the Dept of Housing makes this distinction.

According to Miller Samuel, there are around 7,000 total condos and coops in manhattan for sale right now. That is 0.80% of the entire apartment pool! So, there really isn't a large supply of for-sale housing out there, which would imply that yes, the vast majority of people can't afford homes in NYC, but it doesn't really matter for prices because the supply is so limited.

BARFS:

Here's the math. Take square feet, multiply by $1000. Are you still with me? You see it's NYC, and it is expensive. Expensive like San Francisco, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo, not expensive like other places with more space than people.

Now all the people that own these expensive little boxes, they want to figure out if they are in the right box at the right time. Other people who don't have a box, whether they want to buy it or rent it, need info to help make that decision. So they come to places like this, so they can get more info to help in their decisions.

Now see the difference between them and you is that they've done the math. They know you can't buy a box for $100K and you can't rent one for $500/mo, because this is New York City. They're over it, they moved on. You should too.

We are in the process of buying a pre-war co-op with river views on the UWS for 1.4. We made the offer within a week of it being on the market; there were 3 other close offers. The place needs a total renovation. My husband and I bicker about perspective. He says we are willing to take the plunge because we need a place to live. He is sure it is not a wise time to invest. I say, of course, we need a place to live--but I am sure that in the long run the value will increase. I am not a broker, but it doesn't take an expert to figure out that certain properties (e.g., pre-war, popular neighborhoods, views, light, space) are good bets--even at a time of downturn. Unless I'm delusional or something completely catastrophic were to happen (and no one of us can predict that), I can't fathom the idea that its not a good time to invest (in certain kinds of properties).

Can't you buy new-like Avery or Rushmore for same price-no cost to redo the place-and river views etc.

You may have missed my point. Sure we could have done that. But I wouldn't be so sure of the investment potential of the newer units for which there a glut. Also, I think we have a bit more space than the average 2-bedroom condo.

How far upper on the west side...for 1.4 it should be no higher that 90th street. A 2 bedroom at 1.4 is not going to increase very much...how much more can it possibly go. If you like the apart. and the location that's what really counts.