Price Drops in Williamsburg and Greenpoint

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Greenpoint is a cancer cluster, you shouldn't live there. The incidence of many types of cancers is much higher there, because of the oil slick under Newtown Creek, which has seeped into the groundwater in Greenpoint.

As for Williamsburg, it's an acquired taste and I never had it. But seriously, google for cancer and Greenpoint, you should know the facts before you move there.

tindiast, you can't really pin a number on the entire area, especially since it's so large. If you're talking strictly new development, you may be waiting much longer to see any price drops. They tend to be firmer in their stance, and have much more room to play with incentives, transfer taxes, parking spots, etc., as you noted. This is especially true in northside Williamsburg, which is the "best" part of the area in question. That said, my advice, as always, if you're serious about buying here, is to go out, look at as much as you can, and figure out what buttons you can push to get the apartment you want at the best price you can really afford. Even among the new construction, there's a lot of variety.

Weren't a number of northside price chops posted on this board? I thought the new buildings were some of the first to chop...

nyc10022, don't think those were at Northside. These new buildings tend to be the last to chop. The only notable new dev in the area that lowered asking prices was 101 North 5th, which hit the market with the worst possible sense of timing and overpriced units.

Sorry, I mean "north side" in the sense of the area closer to the water. Then again, I guess thats not North.... North East. You know what I mean...

This is the kind of stuff I'm referring to...

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/12/02/signs_the_williamsburg_waterfront_is_tanking.php

Northside Piers going rent to own, and not being able to sell even at discount.
I had been assuming this was pretty widespread... is it not there yet?

nyc10022, there are no actual price chops there yet (aside from the one building I mentioned). As I said above, they are getting as creative as they can with paying transfer taxes, rent-to-own (which I don't think will ever really catch on from the looks of it), and throwing in extras. I know resales are seeing reduced prices (but that tends to be a very different product, especially in these parts), but new development has a lot more wiggle room, and they do everything they can to get their price, so I would expect that to be their last resort. In the vast majority of cases on the northside, we're just not there yet. I do think it will happen, especially in the larger waterfront properties, if the current trends continue through '09, though they are very stubborn. That said, I know for a fact you can go in there now and negotiate pretty hard on some of these units - I was able to do this when I bought, and I'm sure the situation is only more favorable now from the buyer's perspective.

BJW is jus trying to pump up his crap investment. The Williamsburg waterfront is dying, gang activity at an all time high, too many condos already overbuilt, too much inventory that can still be built, etc etc

Williamsburg is a horrible investment. Expect prices to drop 60-75% over the next six months.

You will probably be able to buy a waterfront williamsburg 3 bedroom lux condo for about $250K in March. It will also come with a free years supply of Pabst Blue Ribbon as an incentive.

petrfitz, I am very happy to hear you are staying away from my neighborhood.

yeah because Williamsburg is sooo classy. It is almost as classy as Jersey City or Hoboken

Not as crappy as the LES though...

I agree nothing is as crappy as Williamsburg. Williamsburg the place you buy in when you cant afford Manhattan, Hoboken, Jersey City, Fort Green, DUMBO, Park Slope, Cobble Hill, and Brooklyn Heights.

Regarding the oil spill / "cancer cluster" in Greenpoint -- This is simply NOT TRUE for the majority of residential Greenpoint. The underground oil spill (which is slowly being cleaned up) is confined to an largely industrial area of eastern Greenpoint, along the Newtown Creek. There is a minimal amount of residential buildings in that area, and no new construction that I am aware of. The overwhelming majority of residential units in Greenpoint do not sit on top of this oil spill, and are not affected by it.

And to answer the original question - my guess will be price cuts of at least 30%. I am in contract for a building in Greenpoint where the developer has cut the asking price of one unit by over 20% already. I suspect less of a cut in prime Williamsburg (Bedford stop), since it's really a very, very nice neighborhood (despite what petrfitz thinks). The so-called "gang activity" has occurred in the Southside, not Northside (a.k.a., prime areas).

Ah the safe and secure Williamsburg:

Stabbing at Brooklyn Public School
Yesterday afternoon, a 16-year-old boy was stabbed by another student on the third floor of I.S. 49, which is on Graham Avenue in Williamsburg. The school was on lockdown for over 2 hours and a suspect was arrested. NY1 reports, "After parents were allowed to pick up their children, they still remained concerned about their long-term safety in the school, claiming that the school lacks basic security measures like metal detectors."

petrfitz, if you really want to play this stupid game:

Man comes forward in Manhattan parking garage murder
by Associated Press
Friday May 16, 2008, 1:12 PM
Police say a man has surrendered in the stabbing death of his estranged wife, whose body was found dumped in a Manhattan parking garage.

Police said 42-year-old William Davila was in custody on Friday, and that charges were pending.

The body of 39-year-old Leonida Davila was discovered late Tuesday in the passenger seat of an SUV in a Lower East Side parking garage. The vehicle was registered to her husband.

The wife had been stabbed several times in the head, neck and body. Authorities said she and her husband had a long history of domestic violence.

you had to go back to May 2008?

Yes, because what's happened to the economy since has caused only petunias to grow and children to skip about and sing songs of peace on their way to school.

Is NJ really all that? I can't imagine living in NJ and taking the path train, but then again I don't want to live in Williamsburg either. :)

NJ is paradise compared to that hell hole of Williamsburg.

Williamsburg is the Detroit of New York City.

That is the dumbest attempt at an analogy I've ever heard.

I guess perfitz got the minimum score on the SATs.. (or whatever they take in his country).

1460 - masters in chemical engineering. you?

you're both intelligent, leave it out will you??

I'm going to see Northside piers on Sun, and will offer 450k for a 550k+ condo. who's with me??

buy_09, I'd be careful with Northside Piers. Their first tower did well at first, but there have been reports of quite a few unhappy buyers. Maybe they'll address these issues better in the newer tower, but I'd rather offer somewhere where construction is much closer to completion. 111 Kent seems much more appealing if you like that section of WB.

petrfitz, once again, really just very happy you're staying away from Williamsburg.

i-want-to-buy - do you have a broker???

i_want_to_buy: get an engineer to go there with you. Check the concrete density, check to see that the walls are plumb, check for every possible structural defect before you buy. Do your homework. Caveat emptor. Price isn't everything. A house is not a piece of paper. You gotta be able to live in it.

thx very much bjw and 80s man. actually I'm seeing 111 kent also at the same time, appreciated guys thx.

Rachel: I try not to have brokers, unless i'm forced to (i.e. the building says they only deal with brokers).

too bad i-want-to! I'm a broker (not a shady annoying one!!) and i have relationships with the developers for most of those new bldgs in BK. If you work with me I can really help you negotiate! let me know if you want to chat about this!

thanks!!
Rachel

Rachel, dear, I know you're a broker (with a nickname like that what else can you be?). First of all, let me offer my condolences to you brokers all around.

It's over; gone the days that you guys charged innocent people 10/15/20% commission, and now, you're telling me you want me to negotiate the price down by 20% and hand it to you as commission?? get real honey; it's the BUYERS market now, and it will get a LOT worse for you guys (hence the condolence wish at the top).

as one desperate woman recently said: Thanks, but no thanks!

i-want-to-buy - when you work with a broker as a buyer, you pay ZER0 commission. The bldg pays me my commission. I'm not desperate but i am always looking for more clients!

thanks,
Rachel

> masters in chemical engineering. you?

You didn't challenge the point... clearly from another country. Your grap of English is poor. Almost as poor as your real estate acumen.

Its like the cab driver who tells you he was a doctor in India.

petrfitz, man, why do you always get yourself in this situation? You really need to work on your people skills. LOL!

"I-want-to-buy - when you work with a broker as a buyer, you pay ZER0 commission. The bldg pays me my commission. I'm not desperate but i am always looking for more clients!"

And guess who ends up paying for that?

You can get better prices if the broker doesn't get a cut. If the building doesn't have to pay them, they don't need as much from you.

well said 10022,
why do brokers think people are stupid?

nyc10022 - this depends. If i have a certain relationship with the developer and can get him a bigger discount then my cut, why is that a problem? If I can go to bat and get him his apt at the price he wants, what does he care?

I don't think ur stupid but I do know people and have a better shot at getting you the price you want. Thats all I have to say. I have a guy in contract now for more than a million less than asking. If you want to chat let me know. If not good luck.

Rachel

i want to buy - remember to negotiate for the lifetime supply of Pabst - the champagne of Williamsburg.

lol petrfitz! I make sure i ask for the 'Chateau Bed-Stuy' special!

have a great weekend everybody, you too Rachel (see, i'm a nice guy!)

thanks i-want-to. good luck at Northside. Let me know what happens! I don't think they will take $450K but i am going to write my buddy there and ask how low they are honestly going. I'm kinda curious.

"well said 10022,
why do brokers think people are stupid?"

Because it is generally true in this regard.

Brokers threw out the "buy now or be priced out forever" bullshit, and it stuck. They threw out the "Manhattan is immune" stuff - I heard it in OCTOBER - and people listened. Brokers have been making stuff up for years, and the people bought it.

So, why would they think otherwise?

Now, of course, people will probably get stupid in the opposite direction. We'll have "RE only goes down" and "never buy RE" commentaries, I'm sure, at the bottom of this thing.

But RE brokers are lying scum because THEY GET AWAY WITH IT...

Hey Rachel, will you actually be able to negotiate the price down as a buyer's agent? Since you'll be getting the commission from the seller, wouldn't it be advantageous for you to actually get the high price for the unit and convince the buyer instead?

then why would the buyer work with me? why would they refer me to their friends who are buying. trying to get the highest price is short sighted...+

I'm asking you. Who knows how you work. Are you actually negotiating the price down for the buyer, or you present them with units to look at then convince them to buy. I dunno how that works. Yeah, I could get a buyer's agent so she can show me places, but since I got the time to research which places I want to see, how would you be beneficial to me rather than to negotiate my price down, right?

Hi cleanslate,

I don't think you can really convince people to buy. Its not like convincing someone to buy an expensive sweater. People usually either want the place or they don't. If they're iffy, they don't really want it. I personally feel a responsibility to the buyer to get the best deal I can. I also get a thrill out of getting a great deal just as i do when i represent the seller and get them a high price. As for me being beneficial since you have the time to research on your own, I've been through the process a bunch of times and believe me its extremely helpful to have someone familiar with the whole transaction. This is especially true at the point where you are dealing with boards...

Okay, Rachel, if for example I have a place I like, what would be the benefits of bringing a buyer's agent at that point? Will you negotiate the price for the buyer?

if you have already looked at this place without a buyer, i couldn't legally help you. However, if this is just something you saw online then probably. i can also use internal resources to find out more info on the property...

without a broker i mean (not buyer)

"I don't think you can really convince people to buy. Its not like convincing someone to buy an expensive sweater. People usually either want the place or they don't."

Sure you can. Take a lying shitty broker, throw in some bs stats, some market exuberance, the word "investment" and you can convince folks to overpay for crap they don't actually want.

If you think that hasn't happened, you are an idiot. Its called 2005-2007.

lol, fair enough 10022
but don't take it out on Rachel, it's all of them. and also the 2005-07 wasn't completely brokers' fault, a LOT of factors more importantly buyers are to blame for that too.

In a 'true' free market, there shouldn't be a need for intervention (i.e. brokerage). buyer and seller should agree on a price and boom, a sale happens.

one good thing that came out of this crisis, is the current ability for buyers to name their prices, and that's what I'd go for. I'm not buying now, I'm waiting till May, that my friend is THE bottom for New York

I don't mean to interrupt the fun discussion some of you are having, but I must say buyer's agents, when they are well-regarded by the developers/sales entities, can help you get a much, much better deal than you would otherwise.

In particular, due to slow sales, developers these days are interested in working with GOOD buyer's brokers so they can get a consistent flow of potential buyers (or at least renters!). In other words, YOU, the buyer, may be given a "volume discount" thanks to your broker, who (if good) will be bringing in more potential clients.

I am not a broker, nor am I married to one. I have just seen some amazing deals those "inside" brokers can get us on new constructions (including incentives only insiders seem to get, such as free common charges for 6 months, moving cost, etc.).

But, then, if the broker is just a nobody, then you might as well go your own and do just as well (or badly)...

Oh yeah no problem in Greenpoint - and this plum flows right under Williamsburg as well.

Great job buying in a toxic waste pit

Fearing Drop in Property Values, Some Greenpoint Residents Refuse Air Inspections

Toxic vapors are intruding into Greenpoint homes, and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation is having difficulty assessing the problem because many residents will not allow their homes to be tested, according to a scary report in the Times today. The vapors in question are not wafting from the famous oil plume in Greenpoint's groundwater that went undetected until 1978, but are believed to be left over from other businesses that no longer operate in the neighborhood.

An investigation last February discovered that the air in two homes was contaminated with traces of tetrachloroethene, also known as PCE or perc, and trichloroethene or TCE, manufactured chemicals used for dry-cleaning fabrics and degreasing metal parts. In eight other homes, investigators found the same chemicals under the foundation, but the air inside was not (yet) contaminated. According to the Health Department, the side-effects of PCE or TCE exposure range from dizziness and headaches to organ damage and increased risk of cancer. Next year the Health Department will examine cancer rates and birth-related problems of residents near Newtown Creek.

The number of homes with bad air may be much larger, but investigators have only gained access to 12 residences, far less than the 58 homes that were chosen for inspection. Some residents are barring the inspectors out of fear that their homes may be condemned or property values adversely affected by the vapor intrusion. (The homes that tested positively for vapors were repaired so that the air was no longer contaminated; residents were not evicted and were allowed to stay at home during the work, which the state paid for.) Over the summer, the E.P.A. began studying the area to determine if it qualifies for Superfund status. As Councilman David Yassky tells the Times, "This community has just had one environmental hit after another, and the hits just keep coming."

williamsburg = cancer cluster + gangland

"lol, fair enough 10022
but don't take it out on Rachel, it's all of them."

Absolutely... it took a whole bunch of 'em.

But only one of 'em is here still trying to fertilize...

"one good thing that came out of this crisis, is the current ability for buyers to name their prices, and that's what I'd go for. I'm not buying now, I'm waiting till May, that my friend is THE bottom for New York"

Just out of curiosity, why do you see May as the point? I know its now, I think its more like 12-18 months, 2 bonus seasons at least.

Why are you thinking May?

Times have changed indeed.