Signs of Stability in the UWS?

I think it depends what you mean by "stability". Check the prior sales in that line. $3.4MM is probably a 2004 price, even if you assume the lower-floor comps were in equally great condition. And for all we know, it may have sold for significantly less than $3.4MM.

Another thing to consider is that 90 RSD is the kind of building a buyer may have targeted for some time as the place where they dream of raising a family and growing old. (We have similar feelings about a few buildings along RSD and WEA, so I understand the impulse; we just don't have the money to act on it.) It's not surprising that when a great apartment in a building of that stature retreats to a 2004 price point, somebody would pounce - even if they know there's a risk of a paper loss. If your time horizon is thirty years, the direction of the market isn't really that important, as long as you have enough cash to ride out the storm.

Yes, the crash is over. We found one comp.

Buy now or be priced out forever.

That is a spectacular, enormous apartment in an incredible RSD building. No way it would have sold below $4M at the height of the market. If you look at comps, you'll see that two lower-floor apartments in the same line sold for $3-and-change back in 2005. IMO this place asked for, and traded at, an early-to-mid 2005 price.

It's also interesting to note that earlier this year two-BRs in comparable buildings like 50 RSD were trading in the low 3's... Now we're seeing a true 3-BR in another excellent building selling at a similar price. If that's not a sign of softening, I don't know what is.

""And for all we know, it may have sold for significantly less than $3.4MM.""

Word on the street is it garnered several offers and went into contract above asking.

8G sold for $3,475,000 in August 2005, and considering the different in floors, I'd say we're below 2005 prices at this point, assuming it sells for 3.5, which is 100K above ask.

A lot of interest points raised by people here.

By stability I am referencing that an UWS property went for $1,400 PSF without Central Park Views, or even prominent river views. Of course I am assuming it went to contract for close to the asking price. Also only being listed for 20 days before going into contract speaks to at least some appetite for people to snatch up properties now rather then await anticipated further declines in RE prices.

This is but one comp but amidst all the doom and gloom I found it interesting.

West81st raises a very good point, though, about buyers targeting particular buildings that they may have been waiting to jump on when appropriate apartments became available.

Buildings like 90 and 180 RSD are good examples of such buildings. Folks interested in purchasing classic 8, family-size apartments in these highly desirable buildings are going to make a move when such units become available, market downturn or no.

All markets, be it stocks, gold, copper, crude oil or Real Estate will trade at most price points in huge rallies and huge selloffs. The real difference is that volume will be subdued along the path. Stability is generally not found until volume starts to increase. In this instance, my best guess would be, buyer found the apt of their dreams, seller got off a great sell. Good for both of them. However, the trend is still in place.

"Yes, the crash is over. We found one comp"

yes, no one ever starts a thread on this board with one example that they say shows the market is down x%.

difference is, 100 similar comps follow on the other threads.

This was supposed to be the "exception", and even it shows the market is down significantly.

> By stability I am referencing that an UWS property went for $1,400 PSF without Central Park Views,
> or even prominent river views.

Given that WITH those things, they often sold for considerably more, I'm not sure how meaningful that is. The comps show this is considerably lower than previous sales.

Everyone is so intent on spinning new data to fit old theories. How about trying to approach the data with an open mind, and then to incorporate it into your thinking?

This sale is very interesting. It seems to me that the bull case for Manhattan real estate is no longer "the market will keep going up," or even "the market won't go down," but rather "the market will stabilize at 2005 levels." And the truth is, if that happened it would be a remarkable testament to the long-term strength of Manhattan real estate.

For this moderated bullish scenario to play out, there has to be enough latent demand to snap up apartments when they drop, say 25% on average from peak comps. This sale, along with a few Classic 7s and 8s on Park Avenue that have sold slightly under $4 million in the last few months, seems to strengthen that view.

The bearish scenario, of course, remains the same and is a lot simpler to spell out. Incomes and wealth are either stagnant or declining, real estate had an enormous, even unprecedented, run-up, demand has evaporated and supply is expanding. Even in a bear market there are deals that get made on the way down. Look at how little turnover there has been in this building. It is not hard to imagine people who had been waiting to buy here for years. This property was priced aggressively--that is, it was not anchored to comps--and it drew a buyer. If two more properties in the building come on the market, they may not be so lucky.

If the bearish scenario is correct (as I think it is) the danger of this sort of sale is not that it will prevent a deep decline in prices, but that it will delay it. All up and down RSD there are overpriced units languishing on the market, but now they can at least convince themselves that buyers are out there. Maybe if they just hold on long enough they'll attract a buyer. But if the demand has become as weak as I think it is, there just aren't enough buyers to go around unless prices come down a lot further.

The lesson that sellers should learn from this is that it is a major advantage to get ahead of the pricing curve in a bear market. If these folks had anchored to peak comps, they would never have gotten this thing sold quickly, and they might have wound up having to sell at a 2002 price or worse. I think they got a bit lucky here, but they were also very smart. Most sellers will not learn this lesson, and will chase the market down until capitulation (name your price! as one real estate advert now puts it).

The lesson for buyers is that if you are foolish enough to fixate on a dream apartment, someone else may snap it up before it drops as far as you think it should. Markets are not entirely rational. If the 3 bedroom at 1 5th Avenue were to drop into the low 3s (a big drop, obviously), I might buy it, even though I think the market will drop farther than that. Why? Because I would absolutely love to live at 1 5th Avenue, there are very few 3 bedroom prewars in the village, and there is no guarantee that another one this nice will even come on the market during this bear market. It's much smarter to avoid dream apartments and to settle on a class of units that is wide enough that at least something you like will eventually enter capitulation mode. Sadly, we aren't always rational animals.

I don't really know the building, but the pictures on the website suggest that this apartment does have river views.

dmeisterg: With the curves along RSD, a south-facing unit in a north-corner building like 90 can get a pretty nice view of the river, especially from such a high floor.

"snap it up"

BARF

Good post, happyrenter. My dream apartment at the Cornwall is still ~$3m, so I guess I'll have to redirect my dreaming to something less specific. You're probably right about the 90 RSD sale delaying capitulation and feeding false hope to sellers up and down RSD.

West81st (or anyone; I just assume he knows the apartment) what do you think of 161 West 86th Street #8A? It was reduced 500k today. Since I've basically never heard of the building I assume it is nothing to write home about, and there has been so little turnover it is a bit complicated to comp the apartment.

That said, I thought it was reasonably priced when it hit the market at $3.8--10 rooms, nice layout, nice light (or so it appears; no sense of the views from the back so they may be truly awful). I guess if the same size space is on the market for $3.65 at 50 Riverside (albeit with no view) this had to come down.

aptometrist: I'm sure that BHS listing at the Cornwall is negotiable. Unless you like it as-is, though, I'd be concerned about the cost and duration of the renovation.

happyrenter: I wrote up #8A seven months ago. I doubt much has changed.

161 West 86th Street - Apt: 8A
$3,800.000 4 beds 3 baths Co-op
Traffic: Light-moderate

This 10+ room, 3,100 square foot estate sale will be spectacular after somebody puts serious money into it. The bedrooms are large and plentiful; the public spaces are grand, and the views are pretty good for 86th between Columbus and Amsterdam. The place isn’t a wreck. For example, the herringbone floors are in fine shape - the ones that aren’t covered with ugly carpeting, at least. But everything about the apartment is dreary, and it shows rather poorly. It’s the kind of place that looks OK at first, but then you open a linen closet and see splintering, water-stained bare wood shelves with bait traps for roaches. The huge kitchen could be a set from a Tim Burton movie: a cavernous expanse of painted cabinetry and decaying old appliances, with a Viking stove plunked down incongruously in the middle of it. At least it will be easy to discard the moldy old dishwasher, because it's on wheels.

I don’t know how many buyers with this kind of money want to live on this block. Still, $1200/square foot isn’t bad for a huge apartment with great bones in decent estate condition.

Regarding 161 west 86, the air rights over the church next door have been sold,
so the west-facing views will eventually be lost. The building also does not
have a full time doorman.

West81st, thanks again. You really do your homework! Didn't you say your dream apartment would be an estate condition classic 7 in a decent but not top-tier building for 750psf? Maybe you can get a Classic 10 for that price, this is getting close.

As for the block, it isn't super. I don't love 86th Street--I'm a huge fan of Broadway, but the 86th and Broadway intersection is pretty unpleasant. But it's certainly not a bad a block.

happyrenter: I went in this 161 apt 8A during an open house back in the spring. It is nasty. The front 3 rooms are ok. The kitchen was scary. 100% gut required. west 81 was being polite with his description. Obviously there will be a price where it makes sense to do the gut, but 3 large is not it.

I believe West81st is a she, not a he :)

I agree that apt 8A definitely has an 'ick' factor, but is an amazing space nonetheless. Not exactly my cuppa location/view-wise, but could make an excellent family home for someone willing to put in the time, effort and MONEY. Because it'll cost--there's more that needs done than meets the eye, as is true with most apartments in this condition.

Don't sweat the pronouns. I've been called worse.

Happyrenter: I actually disagree with you about dream apartments. If you're going to spend half your life in a place, raise children there, grow old there, I think being happy with it is more important than getting a great deal. Of course, there's always the risk of disappointment, but the surest way to miss out on happiness is to not pursue it.

As for my personal dream apartment, we can't even afford the estate condition 7 at $750/sq.ft., so don't go trying to upsell me an extra 1000 square feet. Guess I should have done more game show auditions back when I had the neurons to win. Thanks for thinking of me, though.

By the way, for anyone whose dream building is 50 RSD, I think the new Elliman listing on the 11th floor is a relo. Asking 15% more than they paid in early 2006. Good luck.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368575-coop-50-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

I saw 11D 3 years ago (time flies!) when it was on the market for 2.5ish. Thought it was overpriced then, and it doesn't have direct river views. Looks like the current owners haven't done anything to the place.

Am I alone in finding the location of the bathrooms in 90 Riverside inconvenient? The only bathroom that doesn't require going through a bedroom requires one to go through the kitchen and office/maid's room.

i have to admit, given what else is on the market i am pretty shocked by the sale at 90 RSD and I'll be very very interested to see the price. For instance the Classic 7 at 52 Riverside, with direct river views, which looks absolutely beautiful, and while a bit smaller than 90 RSD, has a better layout, has been on the market for a good while and has been cut a few times.

The maintenance is higher, but still, I don't get it.

Question regarding 161 West 86th. For those of you who are experts in this kind of thing, what is a good rule of thumb on the per square foot cost of a gentle renovation on this type of apartment. By gentle, I don't mean insufficient--if it needs to be gutted, it needs to be gutted--I just mean, not moving walls, or putting in a million dollar kitchen, or trying to transform the apartment into a modern design showpiece.

west 81...sorry about the pronoun, no disrespect intended

happyrenter: 52 RSD #6A isn't all that nice, the maintenance is sky-high and the buildings aren't comparable. (I wrote up #6A over the summer.) The surprising sale is the ninth-floor comp at 52 RSD. Twice the price of any other sale in the building, ever? As much as I love a river view, you can't make up that kind of stupid.

Re. 161 West 86th, I personally think you could do the essentials for under $300K, but I'll probably get shouted down on that one.

west81st,

the pictures of 52 riverside are deceiving--i need to hire that photographer when i sell a place because it photographs beautifully. thanks for the correction.

and thanks for the suggestion of 300k, although that does sound very low.

15 W 84th 2A went to contract....

thanks for the update curiously. given the history of this unit i'll be very interested to see how low it got. could be really, really low.

Thanks, curiously. What's the "over/under"?

90 RSD will be interesting to watch over the next two months. Three high-floor apartments in different lines have gone to contract in the last month. The clearing prices should give us a hint at how the mid-luxe pre-war sector on the UWS is responding to the financial turmoil.

I know 15 West 84th well. To me, 2A is not an apt I'd want to buy unless it was about 800/sqft.

nyc10023....why do you know it so well?

I think it got w/in 5% of ask......

Because I go to a lot of open houses, and have a lot of building floorplans. 2A is a combination unit. You are paying a premium for a 3-bedroom that was not designed as such.

a 3 bedroom is a 3 bedroom anyway u cut it

In a hot market, a 3bedroom is a 3 bedroom. Not so, when the market is declining. A well-designed 3 bedroom is usually better than a cobbled-together 3 bedroom.

agreed

230 CPW 5A went to contract. hHile the price dropped, still listed at time of contract at 3.7m Intersteing comparion to 333 CPW with similar layout at 2.7. Wonder what will happen to 333 CPW at 3.4 now.