Is today now history(jobs) that the worst is over? Please read.

please this board is only for bad news and real estate naysayers. havent you been paying attention?

the experts in RE on these boards like Steve whose income comes at pennies per word and who owns a condo in Fire Island, Tech_Guy who aspires to move out of a rented studio and buy a 1 bed room in a mogul like move, and BJW a williamsburg condo owning power player - all say that RE is doomed and there is no money to be made anywhere.

Get with the program - only bad news and nay saying.

petrfitz thinks I'm in a rental calling for RE doom and gloom? And here I thought he couldn't possibly embarrass himself more than he already has.

Tech_guy - did you not post this "- I wanted to move anyway (studio now, going to a 1 bedroom). I didn't want to move twice in a ~2 year period."

The word "aspires" would be right if you posted it a year ago. I don't know where you get "mogul" - I never pretended it was a huge move (note the past tense). I guess you just expect everyone to be as full of BS as you always are? How's that self-hating Java company of yours doing? Do you have 2000 users yet?

I would like to hear from all those high roller, doom and gloomers out there?? What's your take? I want to hear your rebuttal?

You'd think that a guy with the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi might have some greater understanding of the l-shaped recession.

I agree with petrfitz. This board is mostly comprised of real estate naysayers. And such people are most likely not owners. The naysaying is a reflecting of the innermost wishing that they too had the insight to buy in the 80s or 90s, and now are making someone else rich as they rent.

The difference with me is I admit that my greatest regret is not buying. But to buy now is probably not the right time.

I say we give NY real estate until June 2009. If prices haven't dropped at least 25% from where they are today, we will know that what they say is true, that NY real estate is bulletproof.

anonymouss: As much as I agree that some (not all) of the naysayers have extreme personal agendas and twist facts like crazy, not a single one of them holds a candle to petrfitz. Not even stevejhx. I do think the Manhattan market will hold its own, but I wouldn't be caught dead calling anything petrfitz says anything other than obvious BS from a transparent broker shill.

> I do think the Manhattan market will hold its own

What's that?

An increase? Flat?

"Only" down 25%?

Tech_guy wise words of advice coming from a studio dweller who has never made a major real estate purchase in his life. How are did you say you were 50?

Us multi-building owners have a lot to learn from you......

I wouldn't be surprised if today marked the beginning of a slow ascent in the stock market - especially given that the market barely reacted to record job losses - but I think that means manhattan RE has two years till that point (when it stops declining).

"How are did you say you were 50?"

Apparently your writing comprehension is just as bad as your reading comprehension. I own my apartment. I'm very close to half that age. I've also never lied in such stupid, transparent ways about owning buildings or media companies. The fact that people on anonymous forums can undeniably prove you wrong on both is quite sad. Despite being a professional broker shill, you fail at lying, which is amazingly pathetic.

"I wouldn't be surprised if today marked the beginning of a slow ascent in the stock market - especially given that the market barely reacted to record job losses"

It is bullish that the market didn't gap down today. But i think some of that is hope of a rate cut to 0%. Sort of silly if you ask me. I have a gut feel that market rallies on light volume towards last week or so of the year, but I'm wary of further downside in the new year as economic stats roll in and they get progressively worse.

As for manhattan real estate, I'm actually sort of bored of the discussion. There was a time when the bulls and bears were fighting it out and there were debates to be had with interesting data points and naysayers on both sides. Now it's so clear to me that prices are falling hard, only debate left is whether it's 20%, 30%, or 40% decline from here.

I duno how much I'd pay to see Petrfitz, Rufus and Mandy in a UFC cage fight.

anonymouss, petrfitz is a fairly obvious troll, so take anything he says with that in mind. I don't think you should "regret" not buying - you'll get your opportunity at some point, I think. What I disagree with is your quasi-ultimatum: that if the market here doesn't drop by at least 25% by June, we can call this city bulletproof. It's not; it just isn't. My major problem with some of the extremists on this site is that they're constantly harping on the market tanking, as malraux said, "FOR SURE" now and are very quick to declare victory (as if this were Stratego or something) at any price reduction. The moderates are much more reliable, I think, and are only now seeing real market movement (which the extremists are rejoicing about, obviously). The reason I say you can't say June is that you simply can't predict what will happen - the recent talk of lowering mortgage interest rates to 4.5%, which would help prop up prices (whether this is "artificial" or even a good idea, which I don't think it is in the long run, is not the question here) and keep them from falling as much until the economy recovers some, is an example. This is why you hear some people say you can't time the market. That's true, but you can follow these signs to improve your odds of getting a good deal.

Oh, and that was malraux QUOTING the "doom and gloomers," for the record. I fully agree with his sentiment.

bjw - i am surprised that you havent used that immense RE knowledge to obtain more than just a crappy condo in Williamsburg.

"but I think that means manhattan RE has two years till that point (when it stops declining)."

NYC - What about today's news suddenly gives you clarification that NYC RE will decline for 2 years?

Tech_guy wise words of advice coming from a studio dweller who has never made a major real estate purchase in his life. How are did you say you were 50? Us multi-building owners have a lot to learn from you......"

How does losing money in something make you an expert at it?

Let me interject. I bought from a bankrupt Japanese RE company in 1995 a commercial property (corner unit on 3rd Ave) for $312psf. The construction cost was $600psf and the Japanese had it on their books for $1000psf. I receive over $150psf in rental incomein 2008. Went off and did the B-school / I-Bank thing, got married, had kids (no divorce - it sounded like that would be the next logical step :) ) then said let's live in Manhattan... and lo and behold things were selling for $800psf in 2001 for a 3bd on UWS (mind you this thing doesn't even throw off income!). Convinced wife not to buy and rented.... got hell for it over the last 7 years and now all my friends and the door-man who bought a spec condo in Chicago thinks I'm a genius. I was too early on the call, but how can you justify buying something that you can rent at a fraction of the carrying cost? Like in 95' and especially in a down-trend market, the beginning of a bottom is when the first desperate seller sells at the current market... and that price sets the ceiling and any sales after needs to come in below that last "desperate sale" comp. Just my $.02. Background, I am commercial owner in NYC and am looking for 3bdrm in uws in the $2-$3mil range (that I know I will pick up for 1/2 off in 2 years). Like getting paid to wait!

> "but I think that means manhattan RE has two years till that point (when it stops declining)."
> NYC - What about today's news suddenly gives you clarification that NYC RE will decline for 2 years?

I meant it the other way around... that this news is good, and it might mean that we *only* have 2 years of Manhattan RE declines. If this isn't the bottom (stock market wise) then it is probably more.

Manhattan started declining about 2 years after the rest of the country, and the last Manhattan bubble pop had about the same timing. 2009 is clearly going to be a mess, especially as bonus and pricing numbers come in, bonus season will probably kill the year after as well.

Now it's so clear to me that prices are falling hard, only debate left is whether it's 20%, 30%, or 40% decline from here.

Agreed!

petrfitz you are showing true class. It is natural for people to talk their position. So no need to call people names and spoil the level of discourse. You are welcome to put forth arguments justifying your position.

Unfortunately, housing is also a lagging indicator (more so than the jobs data)... equities will start discounting a reversal far sooner than residential real estate (or other review mirror data).

Back to the original post - the jobs number today was very bad. Hours worked was the lowest on record. 4th q gdp forecasts now range from -6 to -8%. So our basis for optimism is that things are so bad they can't get any worse?

"NYC - What about today's news suddenly gives you clarification that NYC RE will decline for 2 years?"

16months is a very bad recession. We are in month 12, I believe it will be at least 24months if not longer... in today's world it doesn't take years for RE market to react as in 91 recession. So in 3 years (total from 12/07 to 12/10) all the "players" that can't handle the monthly will be bankrupt and forced to sell (as there isn't another buyer with NINJA loan save their sorry asses or tushes). Only then when "smart" vultures start to nibble will I call a bottom and by smart I mean cash flow from renting out the unit makes sense or there is no basis for the value of any asset especially RE.

> Now it's so clear to me that prices are falling hard, only debate left is whether it's 20%, 30%, or
> 40% decline from here.

Given that the preliminary data seems to point at almost 20% already... I don't think there's much of a chance its only going to be 20%.

nyc i was talking about 20-40% from today, not peak

gocha

"I wouldn't be surprised if today marked the beginning of a slow ascent in the stock market - especially given that the market barely reacted to record job losses"

This part seems to be coming true, at least for today. I think lots of folks were thrilled to see no major selloff, and then reacted accordingly.

"Fear fatigue" might be where thats at.

For RE, pretty clear we're nowhere near that.

"As for manhattan real estate, I'm actually sort of bored of the discussion. There was a time when the bulls and bears were fighting it out and there were debates to be had with interesting data points and naysayers on both sides. Now it's so clear to me that prices are falling hard, only debate left is whether it's 20%, 30%, or 40% decline from here."

Statements like these make me smile :) There has to be a reason you refuse to acknowledge the mere *presence* of an opposing viewpoint. Yep, not a single bullish naysayer left, nothing to see here, everybody keep your heads planted firmly in the sand, you're all 100% right and there's no more discussion at all.

sounds kind of like last year, only 90% of the posters then were bullish.

about, you bears are ambushing these boards, knowing that this is your last hope for a chance at a reduced price apt. Anytime someone posts, something positive, you guys swoop in like vultures and devour it. You bears will just not have anything destroy your hopes for all to turn bad, wherein you can then gloriously step into your beloved condo....here's a tip....not going to happen. What was yesterday's Manhattan foreclosure number for Nov..what was it?...6? Be careful bears because you, your brother, your friend, your co-worker, his friend etc... are all waiting for the first sign that stability has arrived and it's "buy time"

Hm, steveF, are you a broker and/or a seller or just living in a time warp? I've been trying to figure you out on these boards. People are losing their jobs left and right, and you still seem to think that Manhattan real estate prices are going to be up next year??? Or maybe I'm misunderstanding you???

95% of people still have jobs, 90% of mortgages are being paid on time. There are oer 2 years of sideline sitting buyers who have jobs, down payments, and historically low financing available to them.

I agree the first sign of stability you will see a mini surge in sales that will eat up most of the excess inventory quickly.

>>> 95% of people still have jobs, 90% of mortgages are being paid on time.

Unemployment rate in Manhattan was 6% in October and given the massive layoffs at financial firms it's higher than that now. Even for people who kept their jobs, compensation is way down - across finance, law, media. Not likely we'll see a true recovery soon.

"There are oer 2 years of sideline sitting buyers"

Where are you getting this from?

"I agree the first sign of stability you will see a mini surge in sales that will eat up most of the excess inventory quickly."

Highly unlikely. In these kinds of markets, people tend to be much more patient since data lags considerably, so they won't have much confidence that we're hitting any sort of bottom. You're much more likely to see a few people dipping their toes in and feeling comfortable enough to jump in, and the rest will follow. It will be slow. As I've said before, think of that "early adopters" curve.

Steve F., I've sold three apartments over the last 17 years, all at significant profits. This is hardly my last hope, especially as I have come to the conclusion that I really don't care if I rent forever. If renting becomes economically disadvantageous, I will have the funds to buy. This is not an emotional issue for me, except that I feel sympathy for all the people who got screwed (not the speculators, the people who truly thought they'd be priced out if they didn't stretch and overspend) by the financial machine that thought it would be so lucrative to create and resell untenable levels of debt. To me purchasing a property, any property(asset), is an economic decision, just like any other. I'm quite happy I haven't given in to some occasional urges to own my own apartment again. The "buy time" will either come or it won't, but for me it won't come until it makes financial sense.

ah, perfitz - fresh as a daisy, and full of good cheer

aboutready, don't worry, the authorities are doing everything they can to recreate the environment that got us into this mess! Buying will make economic sense in the next 12-24 months I think. Should be an interesting 2009.

Steve, I did read you right, didn't I? You were asking for input from the naysayers, the rebuttal, correct? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28071887 Happy reading.

adamm, you are so right. overabundance of credit and resulting credit freeze? offer more credit!!! what did Ben say the other day, that people with lesser credit ratings weren't being offered credit, and we need to ease that? wow, blows the mind. I'm looking at late 2010-2011, myself, but I'll grant that it pays to be flexible if something approaching just right (by your own definition) comes along. or be even more flexible and wait if it doesn't.

steveF, I apreciate your optimism but the article you posted is nothing more than one more random person calling yet another bottom. No one has any idea how long or how deep this will be.

Stevef,

You do know that there has been a 3 month moratorium on foreclosures, right???? Of course the numbers were low, the firms are doing everything they can do t modify the loans. Wells even went so far as to extend the period of when they acknowledge a loan as a loss. Just wait a few weeks to see the real numbers, or read the nypost today.

"Yep, not a single bullish naysayer left, nothing to see here, everybody keep your heads planted firmly in the sand, you're all 100% right and there's no more discussion at all."

While there might be folks I'd call bulls, I don't think there actually are any left. Is there one person calling for a 20% increase in 2009? Let alone am up at all 2009.

Call it whatever you want, the 2% viewpoint of 6-12 months ago (down at least 20%) seems to now be the 98% viewpoint... even though a HUGE chunk of that needed to see the market actually go down before they'd believe it...

Juiceman, thx, I read a few direct quotes from some notable economists. I think that the equity markets, also responded to the lagging indicator of payroll numbers as a bottom. I think we will have a V recovery and a bottom is near or has happened already. This downturn happened so fast with such negative publicity that when the depression numbers don't happen, everyone will be like "what were we think?" and take advantage of all that stimulus out there.

1987 was a V recovery, too.
And housing still took 4 years to bottom.

Folks keep mistaking economic recovery with RE recovery. Which is particularly not very smart in Manhattan, given its tanking started well over a year into the downturn.

"even though a HUGE chunk of that needed to see the market actually go down before they'd believe it"

Imagine that. Don't you hate it when people require facts over fear?

Half-million jobs vanish as economy deteriorates

WASHINGTON – An alarming half-million American jobs vanished virtually in a flash last month, the worst mass layoffs in over a third of a century, as economic carnage spread ever faster and the nation hurtled toward what could be the hardest hard times since the Great Depression.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081205/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

Most of the more recent recessions have been overcome by easing of fiscal policy, lowering of interest rates. There isn't much more to ease (although, god bless 'em, they're trying), and there's almost nothing to lower. $168 billion in direct tax rebates was but a blip, the hundreds of billions of money being saved by consumers in energy costs doesn't seem to be having any affect. For the sake of the people who want to get up each morning and find themselves employed, I hope that the fiscal stimulus plan of 2009 provides some relief, but there is only about $184 billion worth of projects that are "shovel ready," which doesn't seem like that much immediate relief. The states will be underwater by about $200 billion, but that is including brutal cuts and providing that to the states will only maintain the awful status quo. Extending unemployment benefits and increasing food stamps would provide money to those who need it and are guaranteed to spend it, and is definitely necessary, but hardly seems as though it will turn the country around, even though it could be greatly expensive if done properly. Originally, the plan called for $550 billion over two years. That would just about cover those shovel-ready projects and the two-year states' deficits. I just don't see that V.

anonymouss
I agree with petrfitz. This board is mostly comprised of real estate naysayers. And such people are most likely not owners. The naysaying is a reflecting of the innermost wishing that they too had the insight to buy in the 80s or 90s, and now are making someone else rich as they rent.
The difference with me is I admit that my greatest regret is not buying. But to buy now is probably not the right time.
I say we give NY real estate until June 2009. If prices haven't dropped at least 25% from where they are today, we will know that what they say is true, that NY real estate is bulletproof.

I'm negative on NYC/Manhattan real estate right now. I clearly very much made a mistake for the past 10 or so years (although there are also personal considerations that are quite real). But I can't look back. Am I angry at anyone - no. Is now the right time to buy - I don't think so but I've clearly been wrong historically. And it may be the right time in 6 months or 24 months, I can't tell. Surely for some who are real estate investors, now may be great, but for me, for what I'm looking for just for living, I personally don't believe now is a good time to be buying. I think that renting is a reasonable option even though I think a lot of owners who are renting are really ridiculous in their expectations or, on the other hand, are just good marketers.

> "even though a HUGE chunk of that needed to see the market actually go down before they'd believe it"
> Imagine that. Don't you hate it when people require facts over fear?

LOL.

I love how folks confuse waiting for the fire to burn your hand as "proof" its hot as "requiring facts over fear".

Thats as stupid as it gets.

Anyone actually looking at the facts knew it was coming. Those in denial are now the only ones getting burned. Calling that "waiting for facts" is quite ironic...

"Anyone actually looking at the facts knew it was coming."

What did you know was coming nyc10022? I'm interested to hear how you predicted this.

Are the equity markets beginning to think that in 6-9 months, the fed's past year stimulus programs will be impacting GDP? Anyone??

> What did you know was coming nyc10022? I'm interested to hear how you predicted this.

A major correction in RE. I had been saying 20-25% through most of 2007. Sounds like we're almost there already, although now I think its more.

> Are the equity markets beginning to think that in 6-9 months, the fed's past year stimulus programs
> will be impacting GDP? Anyone??

Impacting as in slowing the bleeding. But I don't think its figuring any increases... we're still in the relative crapped (distance from peak still pretty incredible).

nyc10022, what did you know was coming?

is it me or does a V recovery seem more and more likely? It seems confidence is coming back rather quickly. I know I'll get hate mail for that comment but remember..."Don't Fight the Fed"...it will eventually get ya.

V recovery for the stock market, but not for the economy, and definitely not for RE.

Its going to take years to get back the kind of consumer spending we had...

Hell, we haven't even stopped RE from declining, its still going down across America.