Where are all the baragains?

The bargains are in Chicago, where everyone who is anyone wants to live.

Duh.

I don't think everyone is talking bargains; they are talking about the price of real estate in New York falling in line with the quality of the apartment. They are talking about agents not having an attitude when they are supposed to be selling. They are talking about inflated unreasonable prices. They are talking about developers who have delivered shoddy products for outrageous prices.

New York real estate is going down. Anyone who had common sense a few years ago and heard about balloon mortgages and no money down knew it no sense. Anyone who looked a year ago knew the prices were ridiculous, by the time July came and banks were failing only an ostrich with his head in the sand would not realize the bubble was ending. Will you find a 2 bedroom on 57th for 100k in a year - no - they are not saying that (well maybe 1 or 2 are )they are saying prices are going down whether brokers and developers want to believe it or not.

TamWatching is absolutely correct. Prices aren't falling to the floor but agents and owners are willing to listen and consider lower (10%) prices.

You want falling asking prices? Here is my favorite PriceChopper, down 40% since listed and STILL overpriced for a ground floor studio where your windows are on the sidewalk:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/328017-condo-147-waverly-place-greenwich-village-new-york

What TamWatching is saying may be correct (including the trend where by prices are getting lower than higher), but the point hotproperty is trying to make here is that the alleged 25% to 50% drop has not at all happened--despite what manny participants here *try* to convince us.

What these people provide us with are usually streeteasy pricing records for outrageous properties (e.g., clearly delusional sellers who want top $$$ for non-doorman walkups; $30M mansions slashed to $24M--neither is representative of "average" properties in NYC).

Most of the *noticeable* price reductions I have seen personally in NYC of late involve: (1) undesirable properties, usually in questionable areas; (2) super-luxury bldgs; (3) very small or very large units; or (4) units that were outrageously over-priced in the first place.

The puzzled bear is the new bull!

"I'm not seeing all of these falling asking prices that everyone on hear is claiming. Maybe all of the doom and gloom predictions won't come true and NYC RE will hold it's value. Not everyone has lost their jobs and money, and everyone still wants to live here."

Either you're not paying any attention to the market, have never read any of the threads below demonstrating how apartments are now selling below 2006 and 2005 prices (in a few months, it'll be 2004/2003), or you're a julia-esque moron who says, after jumping off a skyscraper, while passing the 10th floor on the way down, "so far so good".

beatyerputz...why all the hate?

modern, Do you mean down 8% from original ask? It's not 40%!

Beat, your screenname suggests a lack of class, as does your eagerness to call a fellow poster a moron. Didn't you learn in junior high that name-calling devalues your argument?

I'm not seeing all of these falling asking prices that everyone on hear is claiming. Maybe all of the doom and gloom predictions won't come true and NYC RE will hold it's value. Not everyone has lost their jobs and money, and everyone still wants to live here.

Some people, like OP and julia, only "see" what they want to see. I wouldn't consider anything in Manhattan a "bargain" until it drops 80%, but the Manhattan median went down 11.4% Q3 over Q2, and Urban Digs is tracking Q4 down at 15-18% off peak.

Add it to the NUMEROUS price chops and sales for a loss noted on this board, anyone not seeing the massive cuts just doesn't want to see them...

hotproperty,

Nope, it is down 40% over original asking price, from $1.995m to $1.199m. They bought it in June for 895k. (probably went to contract a year or two ago at that price and building was converted and closings were this year). I bet it goes for less than what they paid. The original ask of $2m was INSANE.

StreetEasy History
06/13/2008 Previous sale closed for $895,000
07/28/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,995,000
09/11/2008 Price decreased to $1,695,000
09/29/2008 Price decreased to $1,499,000
11/11/2008 Price decreased to $1,299,000
12/05/2008 Price decreased to $1,199,000

"Most of the *noticeable* price reductions I have seen personally in NYC of late involve: (1) undesirable properties, usually in questionable areas; (2) super-luxury bldgs; (3) very small or very large units; or (4) units that were outrageously over-priced in the first place."

I guess thats the last rationalization left.

Only its not true when the medians are down double digits... (Miller Samuel)

Modern,
That ask doesn't make any sense. They expected to make a 100% profit in one month???

I echo the sentiment - I want to see more declines

instead of looking at the listings where anyone can ask for any ridiculous price they want and chop as mich as much as they want, people should just check Recently Recorded Sales.

Seamus - wouldn't recent recorded sales be between 3-6 months off from the first offer to the nyc filing?

Instead of fretting before Christmas, our dear bulls should get back to us in Feb or March, when apts. that went into contract after the Fall economic meltdown are finally registered as sales.

I would rather focus on closing date/price. The lag between actual closing and recording is about 1-2 months. Closed/recorded sales are official. Listings, offers can still change.

I've been seeing/saying the same thing as the OP for a while... my Streeteasy "search" shows relatively no bargains, and it hasn't even been returning more properties within my price range. Granted, I'm only looking for 1 bedrooms in prime BK under 400K, but seriously... nothing. Every place either needs a complete rehab (by my standards), has crazy-high maintenance, or is new construction (which I'm not interested in, for many reasons).

Modern, that listing is absurd. I love the "gorgeous private planted terrace" It's a fire escape with window boxes overlooking an airshaft.

Does anyone have evidence of price declines at the low end? Say properties under $750,000?

hotproperty, are you serious? There are numerous examples in that range on the "If you can demonstrate market movement with comps..." thread. Not just discounts off asking, but below comps.

Seems like there are a number of new posters on this thread. A few suggestions: Before you doubt evidence that prices have been cut, try doing a little research. Read the threads that track price cuts and comps, and use the pricing history attached to each and every listing on SE.

It's been said a million times before, but you need to have some PATIENCE people. RE does not decline by double digits overnight. And even if it has, we can't prove it until quarterly reports come out in January 09 and - probably more significant - April 09.

I don't buy the ignorance.

Personally, I think its a bunch of shills.... or folks in denial.

Prices have dropped. But were the prices crazy high so that a two bedroom listed for $2.5 drops $200k everyone is thrilled. Unfortunately I'm in a different price range and I am looking for a small bedroom or an alcove studio and I see a small drop but not to '03 pricing. that's what I'm looking for.

20% is a "small drop"?

> Where are all the baragains?

Apparently everyone went to the bar... again...

I don't blame them. The bar business promises to be quite steady in the coming months.

BTW, Julia, if you are pretending to be talking about a single digit price cut, then you are completely bsing. The SELLING PRICES are down 20%. Not the askings.

This board has shown MANY, MANY 30%, 40%, and even 50% price chops, if thats what you're talking about. Only you are making up this 8% nonsense.

Your shill game is getting a little old.

julia -- a friend of mine has something you might be interested in. They are having an open house tomorrow. West 106, 2 -bd, $625000.

if you can loan/give me $100k yes I would be. Look at 235 east 22nd street. I love the bldg. Prices aren't dropping.

let's get some perspective here -- there were many years in the 2000x with 20%+ increases in Manhattan prices -- 20% down is not such a big deal We need 50-80% down to make it fun

Julia, I think it's a good bet that the recent crash has made many sellers much more likely to consider far lower offers than they would have six months ago. If there's an apartment at 235 E. 22nd that strikes your fancy and you have a price point in mind, why not make an offer? Hard to know where the market is until you try.

JohnDoe I agree with you. My rental isn't up till the fall but that's what I'm going to do.

Are there any threads speaking to the irrational pricing of property generically at $1000 psf or $1200 psf without consideration for the quality of the neighborhood, building or quality of light, air or views? In the bull market for Manhattan property there was a notion that all space was valuable. Might we be seeing a correction in values that increasingly differentiates on the other aspects?

PMG:

I think you are right, as buyers now have plenty of choices the marginal locations/buildings will not be able to command the same prices as the good locations/buildings. Both will go down but crappy apts will go down more. Case in point, the Zinc Building is located in the hellhole of the nonstop Holland Tunnel traffic. Walking out of your building plunges you in 8 lanes of bumper-to-bumper cars. I can't imagine anyone wanting to live in this location.

Sales started closing in July and flippers are already losing money on resales:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/365188-condo-475-greenwich-street-tribeca-new-york

10/13/2006 Previously listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran for $2,295,000
02/09/2007 Corcoran listing unavailable at $2,450,000
07/08/2008 Previous sale closed for $2,450,000
07/12/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $2,450,000
07/22/2008 Price increased to $2,895,000
10/18/2008 Price decreased to $2,425,000
11/15/2008 Price decreased to $2,350,000

joedavis, funny thing about the math - a 20% increase and a subsequent 20% drop does not take you back to where you started. It's worse. Better yet, if prices rose 100% from 2000-2007 what % decline takes you back to 2000 prices?
hint: It's not 100%.

jake
in another thread I posted exactly the numbers that take us back to 2003 2005 etc based on y% increases per year over x years
Let us make clear again that if the price goes up by 20% it requires a 16.67% to bring it back to the previous level
Thus you require a drop of a lower % to get to the same price.
Psychologically some people don't seem to be thrown by how ridiculous a 20+% annual increase in housing prices with no justification was-- it was built on a mirage, yet the same % decline seems unbelievable to some just as a marker -- ok -- so a 20% decline corresponds to a 25% increase in price -- we saw these and no one seemed to blink, but 20%down in a year is a major disaster in some people's minds.
The asymmetry is interesting.
In the first case - 25% up gives you a paper profit (unless you are a flipper) and makes you happy enough to forget the buying and selling transaction costs. It is all the wonderful leverage of your down payment
On the other had, 20% down from what you paid hits you as a loss of your down payment + transaction costs, just in case you have to get out from your Mcmansion size mortgage. Man, what a catastrophe. You re trapped in this rectangular box, that looked so attractive at the time.

I guess everyone else is always stupider than you yourself are