williamsburg supply and demand

When every last post of yours goes off on some variant of "you changed your lie" or "you don't know what you lied about" it's pretty clear you have no basis for argument anymore, just lots and lots of verbal chicanery.

"There are the words "LIKELY" right in there."

Ok, but the end result is the same - 5th Ave is not the border here. I'll ask you again to put forth one decent source that cites Park Slope ending at 5th Ave. Because plenty have shown you that it's 4th.

OMG! Can everyone please shut up and talk about what this thread is supposed to address -- WILLIAMSBURG SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

"This is definitely not a rule. Is Bedford Ave a border in Williamsburg? "

inverse, converse, obverse, reverse, contradictory, contrapositive.

learn the differences, because they do make a BIG difference.

about w'burg supply. one might be heartened to see supply drop as warehouse 11 went bankrupt but if i were bullish on RE i would be horrified by this development. two northside piers has had one sale. prices still way too high. yesterday's existing home sales numbers indicate that most sales are occurring at lower price points(foreclosures). until developers catch up with reality there will be more developers going belly up. northside piers is owned by toll brothers and probably can ride out this mess and offer incentives that bring in buyers. kind of tough for small developers to compete with. that said i want to buy here. love the nabe and think it has great potential. just biding my time for the coming 350-400/sq ft fire sale.

oh and up, up and away. permabulls like yourself and permabears always get burned.

Buy in williamsburg? It's another fringe neighborhood! Save your money and buy in Manhattan!

I wouldn't fell safe walking home from the subway to the condos by the pier at night.

The rest of the bulls can attest to my statement.
Williamsburg, Dumbo, LIC....all garbage dumps.

Hmm i bought in far west village in 1982. a dump back then, tranny prostitutes on the streets at night, crime high. was only a small studio but still own it and have a tenant in it. bought a new condo on downing st. in 1987 with crackheads in small abandoned building across the street. sold that one in 1997. should have held but moved to london terrace coop. again not a great nabe at the time and sold in 2007. currently renter here in nyc but new condo owner in miami with tenant in place. w'burg reminds me of the far west village in '82 sans the tranny prostitutes. vibe is great, new and exciting restaurants, creative energy abounds. manhattan has gotten very boring and the tension is tactile on the streets. people have gotten meaner. their biggest investment(RE) has taken a huge haircut and likely to go lower, retirement and brokerage accounts decimated and jobs at risk. not a happy place to be at the moment. but it will be again, just not in the foreseeable future.

"inverse, converse, obverse, reverse, contradictory, contrapositive.
learn the differences, because they do make a BIG difference."

Thanks for the lesson (well actually, you didn't really say anything, just tried to be a bit condescending), but I'm still not buying your theory - I don't think it's a particularly strong argument for declaring 5th Ave as the border.

"two northside piers has had one sale. prices still way too high."

I think they're taking a page from the Edge and not releasing any sales data, at least not to Streeteasy. They are still trying to clear inventory from the first building of course, and I think that's their major push for now. They'll wait out finishing construction (it's still a good year away) before worrying about sales at NSP2. That said, I agree with you about the pricing - it's crazy.

"that said i want to buy here. love the nabe and think it has great potential. just biding my time for the coming 350-400/sq ft fire sale."

cfranch, I don't know if we'll see ppsf that low, but I hope you can get yourself a great deal. Good luck!

"I wouldn't fell safe walking home from the subway to the condos by the pier at night."

I would kindly suggest that you are not cut out for city living then - it's really quite quite safe in that area, especially that walk down North 7th or North 6th.

cfranch,
Give me a howl if you get prices at 350 dollar per sq foot out there. I won't mind picking a up a small one bedroom for my mistress.

"I wouldn't fell safe walking home from the subway to the condos by the pier at night."

I am by no means a tough guy, and I hate feeling unsafe. Having said that, I have not once felt unsafe walking around the condos on Kent late at night. Even the desolate warehouse-y blocks don't make me uncomfortable. I admit that before I moved there I had my concerns, but I realize now that they were silly.

good place to stash her up, up.

bjw-if they are holding back sales data that means it must be bad. thanks for the best wishes.

UpUpAndAway,

"The rest of the bulls can attest to my statement.
Williamsburg, Dumbo, LIC....all garbage dumps."

I would not exactly attest to your statment but would call these areas fringe neighborhoods that underwent drastic changes overnight.

cfranch,

You said it best.

"bjw-if they are holding back sales data that means it must be bad. thanks for the best wishes."

cfranch,

bjw2103, clearly has an agenda, ask where he lives if you don't know. His behavior confirms he is not happy with his "purchase" due to all thats going on today.

"I am by no means a tough guy, and I hate feeling unsafe. Having said that, I have not once felt unsafe walking around the condos on Kent late at night. Even the desolate warehouse-y blocks don't make me uncomfortable. I admit that before I moved there I had my concerns, but I realize now that they were silly."

Would you think it would be safe for your young model wife or your teenage kids to be walking home at 10pm on Kent Ave? No way, no how.

"Would you think it would be safe for your young model wife or your teenage kids to be walking home at 10pm on Kent Ave? No way, no how."

I'm gay, so if I have a young model wife and kids, they've got bigger problems than Kent Ave.

kent might be a little bit of a hike, but it is nice, and i think its pretty safe. i lived in the area for about 11 years (then moved out for about 3) and am considering moving back in since i just cant find a really nice place in manhattan with everything i want for under 1.3 million.

i fell in love with a place very close to the bedford stop, totally beautiful and has everything i want but the monthlies (including mortgage, tax abatement, etc) is coming out to about 40% of my gross. bank is saying they will be able to do it, but cant go any higher.

they came down about 10% from asking and about 30% from peak (still negociating final).

i dont know what to do, and my girlfriend has a cheap rent control.

should i move in with her for about a year and then start looking, or just jump on this and start living because it really does seem to be priced right for the area?

aaaaah, i think i'm going to start smoking again, i'm so stressed about this.

"bjw-if they are holding back sales data that means it must be bad."

I would have said the same, but the Edge was doing this from the start, and they got ~100 contracts signed in a relatively short period of time, so who knows anymore? The facts will come out at some point I guess.

"I would not exactly attest to your statment but would call these areas fringe neighborhoods that underwent drastic changes overnight."

I don't think Williamsburg can really be called "fringe" anymore. It's not prime in the way the top tier Manhattan neighborhoods are, but it's established enough that it's past the fringe tag, I think. And these changes were years in the making - anyone stating they happened "overnight" was sleeping at the wheel.

"bjw2103, clearly has an agenda, ask where he lives if you don't know. His behavior confirms he is not happy with his "purchase" due to all thats going on today."

mutombo, that's silly and paranoid. If it makes you happy to think I'm not happy with my home, good luck to you, but I'd say that falls under the delusional category. Do I like the neighborhood? Of course, but I have no interest in "tricking" people into buying here, nor do I even pretend that I even have that kind of influence. Your protests are way off base, as usual.

squarefoot, I'd hold off if it's going to be that tight financially. 40% is bit much to put into housing, especially when things are a bit tenuous right now, especially when you have the cheaper option for the time being.

To add to cfranch's observations, my friend bought in the far West Village just after 9/11. Even then, the trannies were out and about, Gansevoort Hotel was still on paper, and Marc Jacobs hadn't invaded Bleeker. The far West Village evolved. Although I don't think Williamsburg will ever reach the Village's star status, it has a tremendous amount of potential and will also evolve. All the development (and current excess supply) clearly indicates that other people see Williamsburg as a great place to be. Williamsburg continues to attract businesses that other "fringe" and established neighborhoods (LIC, LES, HK, EV, PS, JC etc.) are not. Egg and Marlow & Sons are great restaurants. And former Momofuku partner Joaquin Baca just opened Brooklyn Star. Noisette, Mini Jake, Paul Smith, Otte, Sweet William, APC all are excellent clothing stores. And Voos furniture joins the likes of Future Perfect and Two Jakes. These aren't ordinary establishments. Intelligent, creative businessmen and women also see Williamsburg's potential. And, by the way, there are scarier and less safe places in Manhattan than in N. Williamsburg. I'm over the Williamsburg is not Manhattan argument. We know! I've said it before and will say it again. If you have never been, please visit and develop a basis for your comments. And if you still don't like Williamsburg, shut up and stay away or GTFO.

BillyRes, good post as always. How are things progressing for 80 Met?

thanks for the advice bjw, not sure what i'll do, if i lose my job i'll have a 1.5 year safety fund (in the stock market)and if things get really bad, theres always retirement accounts.

and totally agree BillyRes. willy b isnt for everyone, but for the people it is for, the quality of life is really like no where else in the city.

i hung out with my friends a lot more when i lived there (that could be an age thing though).

squarefoot, no problem! It's always tempting if you've found a special place at a great price, but if you're really putting too much stress on your wallet, it's probably still a bit too much. That doesn't make it any less painful to walk away obviously. I think you're the only person who can make that call in the end though. I agree with you about the neighborhood and am really encouraged by the different kinds of people it's attracted recently. Good luck!