New UD Call - Prices Currently "15-25% down from peak"

Agreed. The media seems to always be well behind. When I saw apartments stop moving and prices gettin slashed several months ago, the NY Times was running articles using old data talking about how resilient the NY market is and how prices were even going up (remember everyone was dumping Plaza, 15 CPW and other lux developments into the numbers?). In a few months all of a sudden they are going to catch on and push this thing even lower and cause even more fear. Not going to be fun.

I can only imagine what those numbers coming out + the bonus situation is going to do in terms of panic... if we're down 20% a confirmed, imagine what that will quickly turn into once those in denial can't deny it any more...

I suspect that a lot of sellers will just pull apartments off the market and hold. Try to get a few more years out of a cramped apartment until market gets a little better. That of course assumes they can make payments.

I found an apartment I loved and made an offer. Seller laughed in my face and said was getting offers well above mine (which means he was getting offers at 5-10% below ask). Eventually he pulled his apartment off the market. This was before Lehman, so who knows what he is thinking now.

"I suspect that a lot of sellers will just pull apartments off the market and hold. Try to get a few more years out of a cramped apartment until market gets a little better"

Yeah, that was the 2008 strategy. Thats not working particularly well...

I find it interesting that JM says we are 15-20% down and then Noah pushes that to 15-25% down a couple of paragraphs later. See how the number continues to be inflated. The data shows 15-20% down, why exaggerate it to 25% down?

Agree that the strategy hasn't worked so well, but anyone that pulled apartment off the market in 2008 had to understand that it wasn't going to be a 6 month thing. I would assume that those people did so knowing full well that it meant they would be holding for 1-2 years. Reality is that they probably didn't need to sell and were only testing the market to see if they could still get top dollar. I don't know. Certainly had they wanted to sell doing so in 2008, even in second half of 2008, would have been much easier.

Statistics are not that meaningful in either direction. Volume is too low.

No one is exaggerating, you're just not reading right... perhaps because you don't want to read it right.

JM is working off closings. UD is a broker. He can look slightly ahead of that on contracts about to close. "deals being done". There is a difference.

And is it really surprising that contract signings, which will be well ahead of closings, might be 5% lower?

I would think that the sample saiz of JM is more accurate than 4-5 deals that Noah is working on. For instance, if Noah closed a couple of deals at 5% down I don't believe that would change the data to 5-15% down.

Why are you assuming that Noah only sees the 4-5 he is working on?

Besides that, your rationalizations are getting awful thin here...

btw, I recall that you were also the guy that rationalized the economic mess...

"I do believe that WS firms will have more layoffs, but they will also be able to pull themselves out of this mess quicker than in 2001. They have seen this coming for some time and made nominal provisions and the federal government has been more active in protecting the industry...

Salaries in NYC are not going to drop 40% and there is not going to be 10% unemployment and breadlines in the streets. Just my thoughts. Feel free to disagree. I don't know everything, but I am pretty successful in what I do and I have been through this before. "

How is that prediction holding up for you?

"I work in the staffing industry and this is clearly a challenging time, but it is also not the same as 2001. "

I think we can no officially say its much worse, no?

Let's see...yup, no bread lines and unemployment is not at 10% and salaries in NYC haven't dropped 40% and yes, my business is still quite busy. In fact, we're working on a number of positions at firms that just laid people off.

How will this affect NYC directly, we still have to see how this plays out in 2009. Are RE prices down? Of course they are.

That doesn't change the fact that UD and you have an agenda that you are pushing and inflating or exaggerating data just isn't necessary or helpful. See how upset you got just for someone noticing that the 15-20% down numbers were exaggerated to 15-25% down. How much exposure can Noah have to other brokers with the sales volume down 75%? The data shows 15-20% down, so call it that. Don't exaggerate it.

I talk to alot of brokers, I see my own business, I find out what price some units are in contract for, and do some math. JM I believe was talking about the contracts signed, as his firm was doing the appraisals for the loans for these deals that are about to close.

Real estate is case by case. If you have a unit that is plain, cookie cutter, ok but not great location, little light, unrenovated, no view and trying to sell now, you are going to get bids towards the 25% down range. However, if you have amazing views, outdoor space, WB fireplace, amazing location, etc.. you will likely get better bids. Its case by case based on quality of the product. In boom times with tight inventory, tons of demand, and bidding wars, even the crap was selling for top dollar. Not so right now.

Bids are hard to come by right now and I dont see that changing anytime soon. It took 5 years (2002-2007) to go up 100% or so, do we really think 6 months is as long as the downturn will last? Thing is, most assets fall much faster than they rise and when the market is illiquid (think of mortgage backed securities market when bids disappeared), things can fall very fast! Right now, this process is playing out at lightening speed

waverly - Now your saying that I am pushing this market down and have an agenda? Oh my!

with an illiquid market comes a range. besides Doug Heddings is physically doing deals in this range too! And blogging about it.

http://www.truegotham.com/archives/market-insight-hows-the-market.html

"I believe that prices are down 20-25% from peak levels for deals that are actually getting done "today." What sold last month and certainly what sold 6 months to a year ago is absolutely irrelevant in today's marketplace."

Ive been discussing this credit crisis in depth since the beginning, dealing with all the crap, gloom comments, and negative press garbage and look how things turned out; so spare me the 'agenda' BS. Im telling it LIKE IT IS! Nothing more

wow, fascinating times we are living! no doubt about that

within a couple of years we went from hearing homeowners brag like there's no tomorrow "i make more money with my house than working" to "you have an agenda" when somebody points out declines.

hey, 15%-20% declines versus 15%-25% declines, what difference does it make? include upper manhattan (harlem for ex) and probably you get 15%-30%. no agenda here, it's just the stats on housing are more tricky than counting apples.

With this 15-25%, you mention that crappy apartments sell for much less than good apartments. Is the mix of apartments being sold today similar to the mix that was sold 6 months ago or a year ago? Or is the ratio of crappy apartments being transacted increasing today?

for full disclosure, i'm not a buyer on the sidelines anymore, i do enjoy prices going down but not for personal future gain but cause i embrace affordability. with my very low visibility of where prop taxes are going i'd be dumb buying now.

i do care a lot on nyc prices as i do believe that will have a major impact on the mood of traders and hence the stock mkt. it also helps to analyze how far we have come down the cycle ... most people are in denial still (according to public polls, those saying that 75% of homeowners believe their house didn't go down in value but 90% day that other's have gone down in value) but cutting discretionary spending at the same time, which i find very interesting.

could it be possible than instead of denial, anger, acceptance we have a lot of people on "public denial, but private anger" state of mind?

UD - I like your site and think that you bring a lot of quality insight to the table. No need to get all bunged-up on "agenda" statement. You primarily represent buyers, so it is in your best interest for the psyche of sellers to trend downwards with regard to price. That is a matter of fact. As you know, there is also a big difference between bids 25% off of the asking price and sales closed at 25% off the peak price. I understand that you you are telling it LIKE IT IS and that Doug has done some deals in that range as well, but the sheer sample-size of what you are seeing versus the market in it's entirety are different things....the same way that a few hi-priced sales can artificially inflate the sales numbers when the volume is taken into account. I would call the statement into question the other way around, too, if you said that you had closed some deals at 5% off the peak price so the market is only 5-15% off. The sample size in these evaluations is important.

I think it's humorous that NYC is accusing me of rationalizing the situation. I believe the market on the whole is down 10-20% off the peak. I am simply pointing out a subtle use of language to highlight a larger decrease. But suddenly I am rationalizing because I disagree with him...what a joke.

tech-guy - That is a great question.

Noah - what mix of product are you seeing today versus 6 months ago? How about 1 year ago?

Noah, no offense, but you say "look how it turned out" like you called it. You wrote about it once it was very obvious. Maybe not obvious to people who could care less about the markets - like some new buyers. But, do you really think what you write in your blog is news to the average person who follows the news/markets/reads economic literature? Again, I tihnk you have a great blog and generate great questions for the neophyte buyer but I think you're overestimating you're role as Oracle.

that is a good question tech-guy. The answer is I dont know the exact answer! Thats why I give a range when it comes to where I think bids are coming in compared to peak levels, when I worked in this market for past 4 years. This market is insanely slow right now, very illiquid, and that is the point you should acknowledge and focus on. Thats really the most important fact of this market worth discussing. There just are not many bids coming in, being accepted. Hence the plunge in sales volume and subsequent rise of inventory at a time when many people usually take listings off the market.

As far as product mix, Im seeing everything. Im seeing fully renovated units with great views, Im seeing wrecks with roof rights in walkups, Im seeing prewar classic 6s with fireplaces, Im seeing little unrenovated studios, Im seeing a mix of everything out there! I think its affecting all price points. I dont think any price point or product type is immune right now to the illiquid nature of this market. Whether you want to sell or have to sell, bids are not coming in anywhere near levels that I would consider normal for this time of year.

As for what I say here being out in reports, lets not forget reports are lagging and reports are still counting very pricey new dev sales that are only now closing, but were signed into contract before this market became as illiquid as it is now.

The best way to know is to look back to this conversation, say, in OCT, NOV of 2009 and see where we are. Im just saying now that bids coming in are both rare, and very low. Brokers I talk to keep saying how they show and show and show and show, and bids received are 20%, 25% etc., below ask. If any bid is received! Some brokers are only showing and not getting any bids. In addition, agents I have known for a long time are seeing a surge in listings and tell me they find it very easy to get the listing. This is confirmed by inventory levels rising. Its just a very illiquid market, Ill leave it at that.

This is how the down cycle really starts to get going, when bids disappear.

teh_guy... in a down market, the units that sell are usually the best and brightest... so I would guess that even the small actual closings do not truly reflect the severity of the downturn.

admin... good choice... I think I'll renew my lease for 2 years the next go around... nothing like getting paid to wait :)

As an aside why would anyone buy in this market when GM and a 1million jobs are on the line in the next 12 months? One can see unemployment hit 10% in a year... that'll hold up NYC RE :) ... If fear won't get you on the sideline, let greed take hold.... i.e. if you bought a $3MM apartment for a 7 on WEA in the 80's in the last 2 months and think you got a steal b/c it was down from $5MM, in two years you coulda had a CPW 8 in the 60's for that price. Just my $.50 (increased due to inflation as the result of inflated RE prices)

i personally know a lot of people in finance (who follow the news/markets/reads economic literature) and i'm sorry to say, many were still shopping for a house less than 6 months ago.

don't underestimate how clueless people can be when it comes to housing, for some reason logic doesn't do the trick in many cases.

eah - none taken. I never said I CALLED IT or I WAS AN ORACLE. I said look how it turned out and pointed out that while most brokers talked UP the market, and talked DOWN the crisis, I took the other side. Thats all I said. You said the other things

I also know many in finance who work at Merrill, Morgan, etc. and they argued the severity of the crisis as well with me from AUG 2007 to about MARCH 2008, when they acknowledged this is not your everyday recession.

Its easy to look back now and say that, but in late 2007, majority of people in finance and economics chose to downplay the severity of this crisis! Its that simple. Some argued how bad this really was and reasons why, others just didnt buy it.

I did a search yesterday with roughly the same broad parameters that I would have used before I bought a couple of years ago and, while the numbers of apartments for sale was high, there wern;t that many that I would consider taking a look at. There were numerous reasons (size, layout, low floor, hi monthlies) for the red flag, but the inventory didn;t look all that appealing.

I thought that I would do it again in a few weeks to see if there was any change. I am not sure this means anything, but I thought that it was interesting. Has anyone else tried something like that recentlY?

I think people in finance downplay the crisis for two reasons: 1)they are too young to have seen a real downturn and were juniour and overworked and focused on their narrow function or 2) are older and know that these wipe outs happen and you move on. I have no problem admitting that my Malaysian investments were spectacular failures initially. I was the butt of many jokes. Now, less than 10 years later, they're excellent. I would imagine many people in finance are similarly willing to take it on the chin. If they were wimpy or risk adverse they would have likely not come to NYC and entered what is def. a grisly line of work.

eah - you always say things like that when I never make those statements. What am I supposed to do other than what I have been doing? We are all reading the same credit crisis indicators, reading the same loan standards trends, reading the same MARKIT ABX indexes, reading the same corporate spreads, reading the same, CMBX trends, reading the same corporate 10Qs, reading the same news on bond insurers and how that may affect future writedowns, etc..

every blog out there that has been discussing this credit crisis since the beginning, publishes a post based on a news press release as a source? You keep saying the same thing, yet that is what every blog discussing this mess does too?

Are you suggesting that I should be providing inside information about news that didnt break so that it is not a discussion on a piece of breaking news? I just dont get your point?

To me, its putting the pieces of the puzzle together, trying to make out the picture. Some see the picture early, some need more pieces to be put in pace before they see the picture. Your faulting me for recognizing the puzzle at an early point and discussing it in depth on urbandigs? Is that the problem you have? I never said that I am oracle, but at least I tried to discuss all these things and why I thought it was so severe from a very early point. Some fought the writing on the wall for many months until seeing the picture.

Noah...I don't agree with how you're dividing up the camps, so to speak. We all know it is horrible. It's just some think Americans are innovative enough to rebound, others think this will decimate us forever. And there is a third camp, it seems, that just wants to profit and be like the families who became millionaires DURING and because of the depression.

"This market is insanely slow right now, very illiquid, and that is the point you should acknowledge and focus on. This is how the down cycle really starts to get going, when bids disappear."

Is liquidity alone a driver downwards, or just that any drive downward starts with liquidity? I realize you're probably more bearish on the overall economy than I am, which is why low liquidity isn't worrying me. People are scared shitless (excuse the language, but the magnitude warrants it) - about their job, about their investments, etc. I personally think that fear is overdone, and that the overall economic picture will be a heck of a lot rosier next year.

If a fear driven loss in liquidity is the only downward driver, then a rosier next year eliminates that.

I'm not seeing people talk about how the fundamentals have changed, warranting a longer term decrease in prices even if liquidity was high. Rents aren't going down, crime isn't going up. Property tax is going up, but how much will that difference really be, compared to all their other monthlies? 5%? When looking at properties, especially coops, the property tax component of maintenance always seems so trivial compared to a mortgage, or even compared to an equivalent property's market rate rent.

"I have no problem admitting that my Malaysian investments were spectacular failures initially. I was the butt of many jokes. Now, less than 10 years later, they're excellent."

Hey I learned early on as a trader you can have the best trading ideas ever, but timing it perfectly is virtually impossible! Even those that shorted MBS, put the positions on in mid 2005 and had to wait a good 15-18 months or so before they really started to turn their way. Great trades are about a combination of knowledge, experience, vision & timing. Wouldnt you agree eah?

Noah, I have only argues when you get self referential. Let me visit your site and count how many times you point back to yourself. When you do that you make it sound as though YOU called it. Maybe initially you're rehashing but a few months later it is as if you've convined yourself you came up with the concept originally. It's like that kid in high school who was stupid enough to plagiarize an obscure Robert Frost poem.

Noah, no, I do't agree. In concept, yes, sounds good. Too bad that's a sliding rule. Here is another example of an error I made. I locked in a 4.875 on my Washington Heights properties last week. This week, rate is 4.625. Over all my properties, that's a lot of cash. I THOUGHT i was balancing knowledge, experience, vision & timing, but...now,not so much. That's the game. I payed mey money, took my chances and did ok but not great. Was it a mistake, though, no.

but did you know rates would tick down? No one knows the future for sure, only in hindsight can you slam yourself or question yourself. Life is a big learning experience and you learn from mistakes, no? When I was trading they said that 'discipline made a successful trader'. Well I interpreted that to mean learning from mistakes, what you did wrong when a trade went against you, what did it look like, what did you learn, how could you recognize the scenario again so that you can avoid it in the future. That to me is discipline so you can minimize losses and maximize gains. I still trade and Im thankful to be able to do so.

When you say "Let me visit your site and count how many times you point back to yourself", all I can say, that is what blogging is about! You get new readers all the time who didnt read the discussions from AUG of 2007, and so you link back to a past discussion and build on it. Every blogger does this, and its a format of blogging. Its not that I am saying, 'look at me, Im the best, I called it, listen to everything I say, la la la', but if it comes across that way I am sorry. It is not meant that way. Its how you blog.

When you get a chance, take a look at other bloggers and let me know if they reference past pieces they wrote to support something. To me, a blog is about looking ahead, taking a chance, and talking about what is happening right NOW, and what is likely to happen in the near future. Well, if it happens, there is nothing wrong with going back to a past piece. When I was wrong about the TBT/PST trades and disclosed a position in that months ago, I came out recently and admitted I was wrong!

It seems the only place we differ is in the percetion of "mistake"...people who are buying now or last year or in '06/'05 didn't necessarily make a mistake. Maybe at this second in time it is easy to say they did but in ten years, who knows. You admit that--no one knows. That's my complaint about a lot of people on this site. They are quick to throw down "mistake" and gloom but little more.

Those who bought in 2006 and signed a new dev deal for 1400/sft and had to wait 15 months to close, and they bought simply because this market was on fire and they wanted to flip upon completion, made a mistake. Those who bought a property to live in for 5+ years and kept the purchase price within their means, and bought for the right reasons, didnt make a mistake.

This is a forum, so you have to expect people to voice their opinions here and be pretty strong about it. Thats what forums are for. Your here, so you know this.

eah, you talk like ignoring facts in order to stay positive is some sort of virtue. i am not hoping for a depression in order to profit, but you can be damn sure that if there is a depression i will still do my best to make money. i won't feel guilty for getting rich during a depression if that's what happens. did you feel guilty making money last year, even though there were people starving to death all around the world? as long as i make my money ethically, spend it ethically, and give it away generously, i have nothing to feel guilty about.

the smart thing to do is try to figure out what is really going on, and then to act accordingly. crossing your fingers and hoping for one outcome or another does nothing or anyone, yourself included.

UES_Buyer,

You say that the data on price movement is not compelling because there is so little volume right now. Actually, the data that is most relevant IS the low volume. Low volume always precedes lower prices. Prices are significantly down at the moment, and volume is still a trickle. For apartments to start moving again at a reasonable clip prices will have to fall a lot more.

A word about interests:

You all seriously misunderstand UD's interest as a buyer's broker. His clients have an interest in lower prices, but in this case his interests and his clients' are not at all aligned. Noah actually has an interest in higher prices, just like sell-side brokers. All real estate brokers benefit from high prices and high volume, no matter who they represent in the deal.

In this sort of market, all brokers should be hoping that sellers cut prices because none of them get paid when no deals happen.

Certainly high volume. Nobody likes bear markets, or slow markets. Im not doing much business now, but I am lucky to have a source for good clients that want to work with me. Im thankful for that. But I wont lie to them just to get a deal done.

HR has a point, when prices were high and volume was strong, deals were being done. Now, few deals are being done. But that doesnt bother me. Id rather keep it real and keep my clients, even if that means waiting until they are confident enough to enter this market

eah, you talk like ignoring facts in order to stay positive is some sort of virtue. <--we just establised thats facts rarely exist in this context. as noah just said..even people who purchased at the top, in their means didnt necessarily make a mistake. That's my point. If one found old posts of mine, I stopped buying investments downtown about three years ago because i thought it was overpriced in relationship to the quality of the construction so I shifted my buying to WashingtonHeights/upper edge of Harlem because I liked the housing stock and had no issues with my earlier investments there. Right now, 100% of my investments are in that area. So, I do not ignore facts, but fit my strategy around them. And sometimes they don't work out. I sleep easier knowign i am in motion than waiting to start. I guess it comes down to comfort levels.

eah, that was rather incomprehensible. repeat in english if possible.

yes, it was...it got cut off

will type as soon as the two year old is off my lap...

we can wait - enjoy your time with your kid!

This is the worst type of market for sellers, because there are often times no one even willing to bid. If lending conditions, or the overall economy, were better, you would see vultures coming in and putting a bottom to this market. Now, due to lack of liquidity, as well as an overriding belief that no one knows when this will bottom, even the vultures are out of the game. Even if one is a rational seller who prices their unit appropriately, it may well be that there are still no buyers with the interest or liquidity to buy, and that is a real problem.
My sense is that things will start going down sharply as more and more forced sellers come onto the market and they begin underbidding one another in an attempt to get out. Also, do not be surprised if we start to see appreciable foreclosure figures beginning in '09 as people who can't pay their monthlies are forced to walk away.

For the record, UD did call it early.... and waaaaay before any other broker. He contradicted most of them.

> waverly - Now your saying that I am pushing this market down and have an agenda?

Yes, the hypocrisy. Not totally surprising. For months, the bulls calls the bear crazy. Then, as soon as the predictions come to pass, they're "repeating themselves".... even as the bulls maintain many of the previous denials. Now, we have "agendas".

But, its human nature. Folks proven 100% wrong are going to be bitter and fight back.

Especially when provoked by sore winners...

what's wrong about UD saying "i was right!". he has the right to say it and to celebrate it.

let's allow not only those that do disastrous investments like buying a depreciating asset with debt brag, but also those that got it 100% right. the ones that should be humble are the ones that were bragging about how good investments their RE purchases were. not UD and others that tried to curb the RE euphoria with timely warnings. if anything people that warn beforehand like shiller, calculated risk, UD, ... provide a service to those that are naive and about to jump into the market.

> Let's see...yup, no bread lines and unemployment is not at 10%

Let me see... you call it completely wrong and you are standing firm because there are no bread lines.

WOW, do rationalizations persist.

You claimed this recession would not be as bad as 2001, and now we are well past it in multiple measures.

The bigger point is, you make a claim, it turns out wrong, and then stand firm that it won't get 5% worse. You should start learning from your own patterns.

Calling UD out for an "agenda" is pretty pathetic when yours is this transparent.

"what's wrong about UD saying "i was right!". he has the right to say it and to celebrate it.

let's allow not only those that do disastrous investments like buying a depreciating asset with debt brag, but also those that got it 100% right. the ones that should be humble are the ones that were bragging about how good investments their RE purchases were. not UD and others that tried to curb the RE euphoria with timely warnings. if anything people that warn beforehand like shiller, calculated risk, UD, ... provide a service to those that are naive and about to jump into the market."

bingo, admin.

UD has not bragged, but he has more than the right to. Quite hypocritical that the folks who he proved wrong are now trying to "correct" him...

> Especially when provoked by sore winners...

I guess to big losers, every winner is sore.

Note that UD never bragged, never said I told you so. Yet here are folks assaulting him, too.

Don't let bitterness turn into lying...

NYC - The recession will be worse than 2001 and the next few months will tell us how bad it will be. As far as the jobs situation in NYC (which is what I was responding to), I think we need more time to see how the firms handle the situation and how deeply they are affected. Right now, the employment situation is not as gruesome as it was in 2001. Could that change? Sure. I will give as much information as I can about what I see in relation to this.

I have no ax to grind if RE goes up or down, aside from the health of the economy of the country in general and for NYC in particular. You assume that I am one saying that RE is going up, which is silly and untrue. I am simply pointing out inconsistencies with how some are portraying the decline, which is just as wrong as how some were portraying the rise.

You do have an agenda. You believe that RE is going to go down over 50%. You continue to talk about buying a coop for $1. All of your statements reinforce your belief and many stretch the facts to support what you think will happen. If you don't believe that, then go back and read what you post.

I am actually pretty moderate in my beliefs on NYC RE, which is why I find it humorous that you refer to me as a bull and as in denial.

You know what scares me about this situation, is that the quality of life in this city deteriorates. That is the kind of thing that takes time to happen, but when it does it takes more time to fix. What about our budget problems. Where will we make up for the gaps? Service cuts? Property taxes? Income Taxes? Where? All of the above?

Did you guys see GS call on selling CDS for 7 states?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=ac9AV.yzTCNw&refer=govt_bonds

This is a bit worrisome. Looking at CA, its kind of scary. CA is 1-2 years ahead of us in terms of the housing slowdown. We just hit recently but we hit hard and fast. if this market remains illiquid for all of 2009, many will be surprised at some of the deals done at this time next year.

But what about living in this city? I love it here. I love the quality of life. I have no kids so I cant comment on schools, but in general, I don't know this city other than what it has been like since 1999. To think quality of life, crime, cleanliness, etc.. may deteriorate is scary to me. This is what I fear most as an end result to this entire mess. I know Bloomy was savvy with our debts and we are not in as bad shape as NYS, but I hope they can pull us out of this with relatively minor damage. That, to me would be an outright success

UD - I agree with you that a dterioration in the quality of life in NYC would be really bad for so many reasons. I do think Bloomberg is the right man for NYC and that he will do the best job that anyone could do in this tough time.

Good point, too, that problems take longer to fix than they do do occur (like gaining/losing weight, right?).

I am not sure what the best way to handle the budget will be, but I think they will be more creative than admins have been in the past....or at least I hope so.

As far as the budget UD, Bloomberg just cut $1.4 billion from it. I wonder where the budget cuts are and how they will impact the quality of life.

I don't know about the City, which is in better shape for at least a year or so, but the state said that nothing is sacred, not education, not healthcare, nothing. The City gets a lot of its money from the state. While I have sometimes laughed at the Disneyfication of Times Square, and I thought that Billy's Topless in Chelsea was iconic in its own way, it would be a horrible shame if this downturn brought back some of the blights of the past. Drug abuse tends to accelerate along with unemployment, and can breed many nasty results.

Supposedly Bloomberg's plan over two years only lays off 500 employees, but I have to think that many other positions will go unfilled through attrition. I generally am supportive of the Bloomberg administration's record, but my one major criticism is school creation. That problem may be eliminated by people leaving the city, but although that would lower prices I'm fairly sure that would not be the desired result. Certain things can lead to a corrected market, others can do far more damage.

where did you see that? link?

"CA is 1-2 years ahead of us in terms of the housing slowdown. We just hit recently but we hit hard and fast. "

Is NY's housing down turn the same or similar to that of CA? NY is suffering from a bursted bubble, whereas CA suffers from bubble burst plus sub prime mtgs. Does that make a difference?

"I did a search yesterday with roughly the same broad parameters that I would have used before I bought a couple of years ago and, while the numbers of apartments for sale was high, there wern;t that many that I would consider taking a look at. There were numerous reasons (size, layout, low floor, hi monthlies) for the red flag, but the inventory didn;t look all that appealing.

I thought that I would do it again in a few weeks to see if there was any change. I am not sure this means anything, but I thought that it was interesting. Has anyone else tried something like that recentlY?"

I do that pretty regularly, and have noticed two trends in the last 2-3 months. (1) There are a lot fewer of the stupidly aspirational asking prices. (2) While there aren't necessarily the "perfect" properties becoming available, a lot more of the properties and prices at least make me go "hmm...". I did the search today, and easily half of the new listings were genuinely interesting (or would've been, if I was actively looking). 6-12 months ago, that would have been 10%, maybe.

UD, are you talking about my reference to the 500 job loss? I can't recall the exact link, but it must have been the Post or the Observer or some such because I remember the title of the article went along the lines of "Bloomberg says increase real estate taxes or jobs will be lost" but with much more pizzazz, if you know what I mean. Memory being what it is, rather than what it was, I could be wrong. I'll see if I can find it and post the link. I'll also see if the link for the reference to the state chopping everything is around. I should keep a list of such things, but I'm too lazy.

Here's the 500 layoffs reference. www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2008/12/09/2008-12-09_ax_tax_cut_or_jobs_mike_bloomberg_wa.html.

> NYC - The recession will be worse than 2001

Glad you're finally admitting that.

> You do have an agenda. You believe that RE is going to go down over 50%.

Don't lie. I don't think that.

> You continue to talk about buying a coop for $1.

Yes, I said it happened in the PAST. Which is a fact, it happened in the 70s/80s. How you use that to prove your lie, I don't know.

> All of your statements reinforce your belief and many stretch the facts to
> upport what you think will happen. If you don't believe that, then go back
> and read what you post.

I suggest you actually read the posts. Because you've made things up that I haven't said.

50% of the state budget goes to healthcare and education.

I'm oh so glad they'll have to cut HC, given we spend TWICE per patient than the national average. The scummy SEIU here has too much power and should be decimated, which will be great.

Teachers union should be blown up too, but I don't know how much budget there is there.

But, given that the state makes most of its money on income, and incomes have been decimated, the state is going to be an absolute mess for years (not that it wasn't already).

City has a little more flexibility, but assume we're going to see...

Fewer cops
Less sanitation
Lousier subway/bus service and/or higher fares
Higher fees all over the place (bridge tolls, registrations, etc)
Good amount of stuff to make it less attractive for business.

I guess we'll be Chicago then.