Doom and Gloom, Doom and Gloom, there is no way to make money

Lemme know if any of your property is on sale at 70% off from when you bought them.

Actually, petrfitz, you have a point here. There are SURELY good buys in these times. It will take a savvy negotiator to find one, as well as someone with a fairly high tolerance for risk, but that's always been the case for someone who has a good chance of making a handsome profit from investing. I don't think that's particularly insightful, but maybe a helpful reminder for those who are already feeling incontrovertibly bleak about real estate. That said, an overwhelming majority of asking prices don't feel very safe anymore. That's the reality.

How can you short one condo unit?

petrfitz,
I think the opportunity is to be your realtor and clip 6% commissions as we churn your portfolio. Risk adjusted I would say that is far and away the best opportunity.

petrfitz, not losing money is the new making money for '08-'09. Anyone who's at 0% beats the -20% to -50% crowd (real estate, hedge funds, stock market, commodities) hands down.

You may not realize this but as interest rates fall the prices of previously issued bonds rise. So anyone who's been sitting on treasuries is up a bundle this year. Close to 20% Which far and away outpaces all most other investments. People looked at treasury yields and said "they're too low". But with our wacky government ready to lower rates to 0% those old 4% bonds are skyrocketing in value. Unlike real estate.

80sman you are also part of the crowd who cant use their noggin and think of ways to make money. The whole "not lose" money is a cop out.

Many people are making money in this market. lots of money. its just that the majority of posters on this board cant think outside their fear.

do you really think that no one is making money on stocks? on real etate?

Sam Chang is pulling in ridiculous cash right now in NYC re. So are many others.

jake, you're right. Please take petrfitz' money

I agree with 80sman - If you listened to the ones that described in detail WHY this crisis would be so severe and WHY it would ultimately affect Manhattan real estate, a seller who may have been waiting for 6 or 12 months, may have decided to sell earlier on when these discussions were being held here on these forums.

That seller, who sold in early 2008 and closed already, prob feel great and likely saved a very good portion of potential losses on the eventual transaction. Not losing money is the new making money. Capital preservation.

"not losing money is the new making money for '08-'09"

love it!

I'd like to bid on one of the co-op/condo units that petrfitz own in downtown Manhattan for a buck. You think I'll make money if the deal goes through?

Fear? The ones you mention express something different from fear. They've said this is the wrong time to buy, no matter what. I wouldn't call that fear, but I do agree that to focus on nothing but bad news at this stage, when that's most of the news, is not exactly evidence of clairvoyance. The question is whether someone who's gotten the bad news they've been looking for is going to profit off the bad news.

cleanslate you are an awefully big oudmouth forr someone who sends over 50% of your take home (if you havent been laid off yet) to someone else to live in their apartment. I have over 20 geniuses like you paying my mortgages.

i'm still a seller of treasuries here. one day someone is going to wake up and see the 30 points of downside on the 30 year bond - and that's just to get to a 4.5% yield... and realize that the "safe haven" is in fact, quite the opposite...

I work in commercial NY RE & I'd say 80% of the industry are not looking to make $, just trying not to lose $. It's not fear, it's pragmatism. Those that are "making $" are acquiring properties which are in or on the verge of BK/foreclsr, but, you needs lotsa cash to do that.

Huh, I barely understood what you just posted? Can you please translate it in English? I can only imagine how your employees feel working for someone who is barely literate. Hmm, I smell another Madoff here.

do you notice that when a thread exists about making money in RE there is not 1 Steve or NYC10022 post?

cleanslate - i will repost. You are a loudmouth for a renter who owns no real estate, has no history of making money in real estate. You only serve to convince others that there is no way to make money in real estate. You are a loud mouth to make yourself feel better for not having the intelligence to make money in this market.

I will make more money this year than I ever have from my rentals. You paid someone else most of your take home to pay their mortgage for them.

petrfitz, it's hilarious that you call someone else a loudmouth here. Ceaseless attacks, namecalling, unfounded gloating, belittling, etc.

BJW - your strategy to making money in RE is buying a condo in Williamsburg on top of a toxic waste dump infested by gangs with a projected 8,000 new units in W Burg hitting the market in the next 5 years?

Brilliant!

Who said I'm a renter? Unlike you whose exploits (fantasies) are well-known in this board, I tend to keep things private. Now who is a loudmouth and a hypocrite? I like the way you pretty much contradict your claims about yourself in this board, makes you appear more authentic...NOT! I can't believe you had the gall to call yourself charismatic at one point. I would have laughed, if I was not about to vomit.

Anyway, to answer my previous question, I will actually lose a buck if I make a deal with you because what you sell is an imaginary unit. Unfortunately, I cannot give you an example of a way to make money right now in RE cuz I can't bank on your fantasy.

And dude, I think you have self-esteem issues the way you can't get rid of your superiority complex. I'd rather not go deep into that, but I suggest you don't take out your aggression in this board.

> do you notice that when a thread exists about making money in RE there is not 1 Steve or NYC10022
> post?

I thought a post on making money in RE without any actual insight on how to do so didn't actually need a response...

Petfritz probably held a seminar "how to make money in tech stocks" in 2001...

"petrfitz, it's hilarious that you call someone else a loudmouth here. Ceaseless attacks, namecalling, unfounded gloating, belittling, etc."

This got old quite some time ago.

The biggest complainers are generally the biggest hypocrites.

Remember, this is the guy who said to buy Manhattan RE in January.... can't get more wrong than that (outside of Steve and the stock market). ;-)

> Would you ever take advice from a stock broker would couldnt tell you 1 winner? No.

Would you take advice from a "successful real estate investor" who has gotten every other real estate call wrong?

Don't think I need to answer that one.

nyc10022 - i made a killing in tech in 2001 - when i sold my 2nd company.

You losers still havent been able to come up with 1 opportunity to make money in RE. Pathetic. You can only attack me.

petrfitz, I've mentioned more than once here that I have been short NY commercial real estate investment trusts for some time, since 2007. The positions have been closed recently and waiting for rallies to re-establish. You don't have to be long to make profits on RE which thankfully, was very good to me between 1996-2006 as were the short positions.

I've made recent investments in raw timber land and natural gas gathering systems which in my book, qualify as hard assets. BTW, the largest position in my portfolio is MCD which would certainly qualify as a rather substantial global RE holder.

As to a pocket of air space in Manhattan, I will allow those that can ride the down cycle for however it long it lasts better than I. There will be far better opportunities in 2010 or whenever the sad NY economic situation begins to demonstrate some sort of stability. As you may know, RE cycles are long in their duration specially if the corrections begin from bubble type valuations, and this one sure as hell did.

"BJW - your strategy to making money in RE is buying a condo in Williamsburg on top of a toxic waste dump infested by gangs with a projected 8,000 new units in W Burg hitting the market in the next 5 years?

Brilliant!"

No, my friend. I bought my place so I could live in a decent apartment in a neighborhood I really love. That it irks you to the point that you make crazy things up is still somewhat perplexing. nyc10022 is 100% right about you.

"live in a decent neighborhood"

well you picked a winner! Toxic waste dump site with roving gangs is sure a "decent neighborhood"

petrfitz, are you so daft that you can't even read properly? I wrote "decent apartment." I love the neighborhood; I know you don't - get over it.

oh bye "decent apartment" do you mean crappy constructed glass box situated on a toxic waste dumb infested with gangs?

Did you see the thread on Curbed today about the 8,000 units that will hit the market in Williamsburg!

I can't tell you how to make money by lighting all of your belongings on fire either, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong when I tell you that it's probably not a great idea.

"You losers still havent been able to come up with 1 opportunity to make money in RE. Pathetic. You can only attack me."

Because it was a bubble, you idiot. And you called "buy" at the absolute top.

If you want an opportunity to make money in RE, I gave it to you a few months back.

Short it.

Worked like a charm.

New York residential real estate simply looks way too expensive.

Commercial REITS - try an index ETF like RWR - have dropped almost 40% this year and yield more than 8.5%. Although some of my colleagues will worry about further dividend cuts, I think there is good long term value here. Income plus growth.

How many NY apartments can you buy with an 8.5% cash-on-cash yield today? Sorry I just don't see value here at "current" prices. REIT prices have adjusted - and rapidly - NY residential real estate still has a lot of adjusting to do - and that will probably take a good two years.

Value is value. Who cares whether it's in stocks, bonds, commodities, or real estate? Go where the opportunity is! I'm simply not real excited by an apartment that will yield me 4% cash-on-cash. Sure the rent will probably go up over time. But I need a higher starting yield to get excited.

Why do people bother taking him seriously? He's an obvious pathological liar who's be outed countless times. Make fun of him, sure, but don't bother arguing RE with him.

Topper, I had the same thought on REITs, but I worry about the commercial ones, because commercial RE could be the next shoe to drop. Have you looked at residential REITs, not ones focused on NYC?