The FED: Manhattan prices down 20% since summer

that was JM quote for that report

good job on the media exposure Noah! get the word OUT.

Craziness!

i disagree with miller's post... not all from desperate sellers. it is also people who are cautious and want to delever - **just in case**.

you lose a bit of money now, but you have that money in bank for opportunity to buy something else if market is lower a year from now... or sleep a little better if you are slightly nervous about your job situation (finance or media or anything else white collar) and have a good sized mortgage.

that is what i did - just signed a contract this month and happy. lost a little, but frankly wld have lost a lot more if it was in the market.

signed a contract to buy or to sell?

NY Magazine reported streeteasy did a survey for them showing prices have not come down except in upper manhattan and then on 6%.

i'm selling

"NY Magazine reported streeteasy did a survey for them showing prices have not come down except in upper manhattan and then on 6%."

julia, who are you going to believe:

The FED

-or-

NY Magazine/streeteasy

Is that even a comparison???

Give me a break.

I don't think its from desperate sellers entirely. I think its also from sellers that recognize that they may want to sell or move within the next year or two, and figure the price they will get now is better than what they will be able to get down the road.

"who are you going to believe:

The FED"

Is "The FED" actually saying this or are they merely picking up a JM quote?

It said the Fed's Beige Book... but to be fair, you can't always listen to what the fed "says". After all, didn't they "say" just a year ago "no problems here, move along", while quietly opening up the discount window and letting people out in an orderly fashion.

The FED gathered data (miller samuel et al), crunched the numbers internally, then published the data in its beige book.

So, this is the FED saying, in its most official way.

Granted, these guys are lunatics with their policies and fake inflation/unemployment numbers, but it is in fact the FED's official analysis and statement.

The quote was from JM,

MMAfia, wrong! data was collect from JM and supplied to the FED

"The report, which looks at market conditions in various cities eight times a year, found that "the prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume. Much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers."

Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which provided data for the Fed's analysis based on contract prices after a series of confidence-shaking bank failures and federal bailouts, said the drops are somewhat unsurprising. Prices historically fall after sales volume slows, and volume has ebbed considerably in recent months."

I think you should read the article.

It is amazing the spin here

ruff,

stop spinning!!!

I said "The FED gathered data (miller samuel et al), crunched the numbers internally, then published the data in its beige book."

and you post:

"Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which provided data for the Fed's ANALYSIS"

SO:

as I originally said,

The FED GATHERED DATA (from Miller Samuel et al) and crunched the numbers themselves, hence the word ANALYSIS.

Stop trying to discredit the facts here.

MMafia, what the heck you getting so crazy for? With volume falling off a cliff these numbers are meaningless. Until all the sideline buyers buy and non-desperate sellers sell, we have no quality data to work with. We'll just have to wait to see where the market truly is. It's like the stock market the day after Thanksgiving being up or down, it's meaninless because of such weak volume.

Greed rules. Sideline buyers greedy to get lower prices. Sellers greedy pegging to peak prices. Time will tell how much reserve cash the Manhattan owners have (and how secure their jobs are).

yes aifamm..greed does rule...and time will tell if those co-op boards and to a lesser extent condo boards were correct in their financial evaluation of future owners.

MMAfia, The facts are what they are. Data based on the thinest of volume and reported from desperate sellers.

That is the real "ANALYSIS", not your BS interpretation.

"Until all the sideline buyers buy and non-desperate sellers sell, we have no quality data to work with"

LOL sideline buyers. What will they think of next? Keep telling yourself that, the smart money will cash out now.

Correction, the smart money cashed out last year.

ya, jgr there are no sideline buyers at all. No one is waiting to see what happens with the economy. The reason no one is buying and volume crashed is because no one wants to live in Manhattan anymore. Ya, that's it you're right.

"That is the real "ANALYSIS", not your BS interpretation"

I am not interpreting anything.

I am just stating the fact that:

The FED, after gathering data and performing IT'S OWN ANALYSIS has officially made a statement about Manhattan prices dropping 15-20% in its Beige book.

Clearly, the FED thinks that the data and analysis is accurate enough to put it in the Beige book.

So, just that accept that FACT and deal with it without having to justify this and that and what not.

It is what it is. End of story.

"though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume"

The Fed must be pretty stupid. Ask any bear here - they know the *EXACT* prices. Just ask them, they'll tell you how sure they are.

The entire quote is silly. Where is the YOY number? What the hell does July have to do with October?

MMAfia,

Why should we beleive the Fed?

"At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,"

-Bernanke, March 2007

"The subprime mess is grave but largely contained"

--Bernanke, May 2007

"I and others were mistaken early on in saying that the subprime crisis would be contained,"

Bernanke, November 2008

Alpine, you have to read between the lines.

I believe 100% that the Fed knew this was coming... Why?
Do you think it was mere coincidence that a "Great Depression" expert/scholar is now the Fed leader?

If you're a policeman or fireman at a fire, do you yell:
"FIRE!!! EVERYONE RUN!!! PUSH THE WOMAN AND CHILDREN!!! SAVE YOURSELVES!"