Prices are NOT Down 20%

are you really that dumb nyc10022?

when 10022 says it might be time to throw in the towel, that's really something. Alpine, i'd suggest you re-read this thread from the beginning. you've lost direction.

w67th, malraux really had something against ovaries. i wish him ill.

I want my terraced apartment!

Don't buy anything - we have another 30% to go. 2003 prices, 800 psf prime Manhattan.

And prices will languish there for years.

aboutr - that's very wanda sykes of you!

alpie - I gave you real prices for a real building with 2 very similar apartments where the better one sold for 26% less than the worse on a per-share basis.

What more do you want?

"Alpine, i'd suggest you re-read this thread from the beginning. you've lost direction."

He didn't understand it the first time, nor the 1000 other threads he posted on... what's going to be different this time?

> are you really that dumb nyc10022?

Being called "dumb" by someone like alpine is a tremendous compliment.

"are you really that dumb"

The answer to this question, for anyone, when just thrown out there with nothing to support a counter argument, is always "yes". I fully admit to being as "dumb" as all the arguments I've made in everything I've posted on the board. Especially the one's where I am incontrovertibly correct. *THAT* is EXACTLY how dumb I am (I don't know about the rest of you).

on the lower end of the market...205 third avenue alcove studios were selling for $550k now one is listed at $400k...401 east 74th street alcove studios were selling for $475k now one closed for $400k and on and on...i'm now waiting for the alcove studio for $350k

Just wait, julia - don't rush in where angels fear to tread. You have PLENTY of time for prices to drop more. Start looking when inventory numbers start creeping down for a few months.

And not a moment before!

Alpine-keep smoking the "green shoots"

sorry to hijack the thread for a sec, but stevejhx, you going to the meetup?

Not going to any "meet-up," sorry. malraux might be there to blame the crash on me - even though he owes me a terraced Village co-op.

And JuiceMan, among so many other things, now must finally admit that I have been correct.

His own words:

[quoted from me:] "Real estate, however, is dead for years to come."

JuiceMan: "stevejhx, you are the ultimate doom and gloomer. It seems as if urbandigs is a bit jealous that you took his gloom and doom pencil away. I will believe everything you say when I can get a discount on my next Manhattan property. Until then it is all speculation, not fact."

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3135-the-death-knell-of-manhattan-property-prices?page=1

Tee-hee-hee. "I will believe everything you say when I can get a discount on my next Manhattan property."

JuiceMan - thoughts?

bock bock chicken. steve is too afraid to reveal his identity. bock bock.

Alpie, what? Me and UD are two of the very few people on this board who AREN'T anonymous. Who I am is well known, but vverain threatened to kill me.

Nonetheless, beyond your silly "bock bock," what have you to say about my posts - 30% down from peak!

I did not know you made your identity public. The only identites I am aware of are urbandigs and West81, who just outed himself in the NY Times.

What meet up? Sure, Steve has published links to his book in past posts...I forget the title... isn't it something-onomics or -ilosphy or some such thing?

So I just got home from an alumni dinner. I met a guy from a private equity firm. He was saying some condo has been purchased by his firm from a developer. I threw out some suspects to get a read on his face. Rushmore, Linden, etc. I kinda got a vibe on the Linden. Who knows what they bought, for what price, and how cheaply they can sell the units and make their return hurdle. It was interesting to me to hear about this kind of movement in the market. Clearly the only thing holding these condo asks up is that they are notionally so underwater vs the developers' mortgages there is little incentive to mark them to market...

Now, take it easy on malraux, who still prowls the West Side Highway in search of an oblivious buyer for his knockoff Damien Hirst diamond-encrusted ball-gag/jockstrap set and discounted Jeff Koons cartoon-colored animated bungholeplug.

My god...this is like reading posts by the House Wives of NYC...you people are ridiculous. Get a life.

140 E 72nd

yes, and 7b's history (i just have to repeat this for Alpine):

04/07/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $1,050,000.
04/07/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $1,050,000.
04/23/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Citi-Habitats at $885,000.

Sorry alpie, yet again you know not what you speak.

malraux is stuffing his safe deposit box full of kruggerands. Which is what gave him up as a fraud. No one with any amount of money would do that, except a miser.

Where's JuiceMan's admission that everything I said was right? This is the second time in a week - the first was if I could find a rent-to-buy ration that didn't include the "tax benefit" (I found 3) he would retract. Didn't. Claimed he was right and disappeared. Now I have his very own words that if he could get a discount on a Manhattan apartment he would believe everything I say.

First - an Act of Contrition. Then - the Articles of Faith.

Juicy?!

The RE market is down over 30% for the 1m and above and 25% for 1m and below... It will continue to fall for the year. I think it will continue to drop as long as unemployment is high, credit is dry and pay is low.

Its going to be funny when some of these condos start moving at 1/2 price.

RE_PRO, real estate will continue to fall in price until the historical mean of carrying costs equaling rents is reached, and then carrying costs falling below rents. We're looking at at least another 30% drop, on top of what has already occurred.

Inventories continue to rise; the "shadow" inventory is probably at least 50% of the listed inventory. More units are being built. Absorption rates have plummeted. I estimate there's a 3-year supply of inventory right now, and growing, just as the slow summer season is upon us.

I am listening to a streaming lecture from a stock technician who is student of history. He threw out a stat that I find incredible. A home purchased in 1929 before the crash took until 1966 to re-achieve its original cost.

Still not comment by alpie of our having proved the price fall.

Or Juicy living up to his statement that he'd believe me when he could get a discount on a Manhattan apartment.

Or malraux - where's my apartment that you promised me, weasel-boy? :)

And, of course, this post wouldn't be complete with a WHERE'S SPUNKY?

Rhino,

FYI: pretty sure that stat you quote is "inflation-adjusted" or "real."

In nominal terms home prices were far higher than in 1929.

Keep in mind that you also got the "implied rent" from that home during the period which was considerable. So your investment kept up with inflation and you got the "impled rent" which also grew with inflation during period.

"bock bock chicken. steve is too afraid to reveal his identity. bock bock."

Alpine, I'm a little scared that you want folks to know that you're the village idiot.

good day all.

Jerkstore... I commend you on your post.... NICE... i forgot to vote for the post of the day yesterday :).... nicely done....

Topper you may be right about 'real' prices...but I think we've beaten to death on this board that if you service a huge mortgage by buying at peaks, you are not receiving implied rental savings at all. I am sure people were buying for appreciation without a monthly dividend in 1929 just like they did from 2006 to Q1 2008.