The Economic News Isn't All Bleak

hate wsj inability to take a position... if you read enough of it... it always seems like they spend the entire article arguing one direction and on the last few paragraphs plays devils advocate...

They also didn't predict the demise of Bears or Lehman ( Like a year or two ahead as some on SE have done w. NYC RE)

I plan on renting for 30 yrs (if renting is cheaper) and being a worldly "homeless" traveler... I assume w/o the $30K/month carrying cost and no private school payments, wife and I should be able to travel the world w/o eating cat chow :)

What's wrong with cat food? When my mother came to this country she couldn't read or write English so when my godmother bumped into her shopping one day in the A&P she looked in her shopping cart and asked her " do you have cats?" My mom replied no....why? You see she had a bunch of cans of cat food in her cart and she thought it was Tunafish because of the picture of the Fish on the label. We had Cat Tuna fish with mayo sandwhiches for a full year before that.....YUM!!!!!

I come from a pretty modest background myself, but McHale, that's a bit too much information, especially the part about you actually putting mayo on food, gross.

There is very little actual info in this thing.... its wishful thinking.

"Predictions about the rate of unemployment by the end of 2009 are based on how high that rate went during and after other recessions, and how steep those recessions were compared to today."

Yes, but we've actually now had the largest number of unemployment filings in 23 years... so its now about projections anymore, its about pace. Big difference.

> And it happened over the course of weeks, not years.

And this is supposed to be a postitive?

> Even if unemployment reaches 9% or more, consumer reserves in the U.S. and world-wide are deeper
> than commentary would suggest. Household net worth in the U.S. is down from its highs but is still
> about $45 trillion.

And dropping at a faster pace than ever.

This article seems to think that because X and Y haven't happened yet, they won't happen... no matter than we're pacing for those things to happen.

BTW, hotproperty forgot to check the headline.

This is OPINION, not news...

opinion of news is not news either...

You know, after the Bulls screeched at anyone who was remotely bearish for a year, and in the process ended up looking like a bunch of adolescents screaming about having their party ended, why on earth would anyone take them seriously now?

Sure, if they make a good argument, it should be considered (as was the bearish case over the last 5 years), but they need to clear a higher bar now for me to take them too seriously. They still come off as a bunch of delusional thinkers to me. The fundamentals of the economy are NOT strong. Things are very much amiss. Including perhaps the very basis for the modern global economy. The China lends to US so US can overspend (in part on China driving its engine), essentially the model of the US being the consumer cash flow for the rest of the world was unsustainable (all "net worth" was fragile, as we see as it is quickly evaporating, it was paper value, as we produce so little now). It now is falling apart, and barring another brilliant idea for a new bubble, will not recover. The economic landscape will be VERY different. THe US consumer will have to start saving, crushing the growth model here and elsewhere. RE values will be depressed for years (yes, in Manhattan too). Other nations will realign their economies (e.g., Asia will trade more and more with itself as the US becomes a smaller player).

We need a sustainable model in which we become of VALUE to the world once more (and not just in niche markets), or, like all things of low value, we will be tossed aside. Of course, we are a huge juggernaut, so it won't happen quickly. But so much worse will be the crash if things are not turned around.

Until the wsj and other spoiled, head-in-the-sand fools stop harping for a model that made them rich but is clearly in the later stages of a terminal illness start facing the depth of the crisis, they are only contributing to the problem.

type3, I had no idea the Bulls were on this board, but why would listen to anyone who only won 33 games last year? Pretty impressed with that Derrick Rose guy though, so maybe they'll have better contributions for you!

(Most) kidding aside, I think most smart/experienced investors have practiced more saving than the average consumer here. The recession headlines will undoubtedly tune people in to their account balances a little more, but they key is their reaction after this mess is over (or at least old news) - will people revert to their spending ways?

Not when the biggest source of consumer spending was home equity...

McH yep.. .when my parents first came to America... my dad's comment was... holy sh-t... do you see how much dog and cat food they sell in this supermarketo? My dad smiled and said we're gonna be alright!

The Bulls are too busy trying to restructure their mortgages to be on SE :)

"type3, I had no idea the Bulls were on this board, but why would listen to anyone who only won 33 games last year?"

I don't know, I keep reading about how Chicago is the ****. What, the Knicks?

Wow, thanks everyone. I see the light now. Real estate is evil and so is the wsj. How dare I suggest that rent and ownership cost will do anything but go to zero.

Seriously though, anyone actually do any research or have a link to a study of the last cycle?

No.... and no soup for you!

Larry Kudlow now talks about mustard seeds in the form of low gas prices and mortgages....The guy was so clueless all the way down I'm surprised CNBC even still lets him host...the guy was totally out of touch and still thinks we will turn around soon...

Kudlow had a cocaine (white person's version of crack) problem :)

He was a cocaine addict who checked into the Hazelden clinic in 1995, after he blacked out and his third wife threatened to divorce him. White people freebase..........
BTW We all had a coke problem back in the day :)

CNBC did the same nonsense on in the tech bubble. Eyeballs more important that Profits. Blah. They just parrot the bullish line because casual listeners only watch when they are actively investing in the market.

Watch when Paul Kedrosky is on. When he starts talking about his "New Normal" theory (Structurally, not cyclically, lower expectations of growth after the downturn) they almost immediately cut away to the bullish guest.