The Beresford apt 3E..could be a bellweather for CPW

patient09: ill give it a shot. I got more like 3100 sqft when I ran through it, not far from your estimate, though. I would upgrade your "nice building" to "great building". Obviously great location, etc. Agree that one exposure, while park facing, is not ideal. Also dont love the layout, but thats personal. Plus I would never pay much premium for the third floor (until floor 5 or 6 I think park facing is worth only a small premium, depending on the building). And I agree that the apartment looks somewhat dated. I love how the "state of the art" renovation shows no photos of the kitchen or bathrooms, or really anything else that appears renovated. I would thus make an assumption that a buyer will need to put in some $, though for the sake of this exercise, I'll give the Corcoran marketing credit for something. . My guess is 1700-1900 psft for this one. Given all the above assumptions, and my estimate of 3100 sqft size, using the midpoint of my range I get 5.7mm.

I agree that this could be a bellwether for CPW. I think 16E (obviously much better views) went for $8.4M in 9/07. It was in estate condition----needed a complete renovation.

I like the layout, but I think the apt. needs another bathroom.

http://bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=981022

This one in the Eldorado is interesting also.

How do you think it compares to 3E in the Beresford?

The El Dorado apartment is a nicer apartment, in my opinion, and looks to me much better renovated. Also, the four exposures of the full floor of the tower is vastly superior to the essentially one exposure of 3E in the Beresford. However, the Beresford is a better building in a better location, so it deserves some premium for that. Overall, I think these apartments are pretty similar in value, although personally I would rather have the one at the El Droado.

I can't imagine we'll be seeing a whole lot of anything much higher than $1500-2000 psf.... when averages are creeping well below $1k psf.

YJBO, BFG: The Eldorado 16E kicks ass on the Bsford 3E, but they are very, very different locations. Not quite the angle of discussion I was looking for. But thanks for your thoughts yjb, bfg, 10022.

what angle were you looking for? i totally agree they are very very different locations, Id give the Beresford a 5-10% premium over the El Dorado

bfg: wasn't meant for you, your first comments are what I was looking for. The later El Dorado comments don't care as much about. I am shopping for the 3-4 bed, CPW, with views, nice building, 3,000sf apt. That why I commented on the Majestic thread and started this one. These are in my wheel house, just not price wise, yet!

patient09---how do you think the 16E comp from 9/07 relates to 3E today?

As you know, there are very few listings in the Beresford at any one time. And people do seem willing to pay a significant premium for that building. In a frozen market like we have today, it's hard to estimate what apartments will sell for.....but i wouldn't be surprised to see 3E go for somewhere in the mid-$6M range.

Haven't had time to put any thought to it, heading out for the rest of the evening. Will think about it tomorrow as relates to 16E. However, in general, I would put the Beresford on a par with the Majestic. 2,500-3,800sft, on a good floor with a great view, call it $1,500psf. then adjust for renovation or estate.

Hmmmm...$1,500 sqft for super-prime CPW space. 16E in estate condition went for about $3,000 sqft. I don't think we're down 50% yet, but many on this board think we'll get there.

Like you, I'm an interested spectator at this point.

YJBO : I would give 16E a 500/psft premium for the high floor. That gets us to 2500 psft to equalize. I would also say we are down 25% from peak 2007 pricing, which gets you into my wheelhouse of 1850-1900 or so psft.

The dining room looks like it's in a funeral home.

patient, I am flattered to be included among posters whose thoughts you'd be interested in. Not really in my wheelhouse (even though I think I commented on a thread for an apartment in a similar price range). We're looking for something more like 2000SF, plus we neither need nor can afford the "uber-prime" location.

The one thing I will note is that for the size, the maintenance seems pretty low.

If this apartment was in a good but not great location (which I am more familiar with), I'd guess around 1000psf. Hard for me to imagine a 100%+ premium for location, I would guess more like 50%-ish, but that's a total guess. Based on that guess, we'd be south of $5MM, which I imagine would make you happier than the current asking.

I realize the above is not very insightful, but since you asked...

bfg: agree on the $500 sq ft premium for 16th floor vs. 3rd floor. Not sure we're down 25% from the peak yet. We may well be, but the only way to be sure is to know what prices today's deals are being done at. Asking prices for prime properties don't seem to be down very much, and there are few deals being done now....so it's very difficult to know where the market is today.

There appears to be a standoff between buyers and sellers. It seems like those of us who want to know the current state of the high-end market will have to wait a few months until the market unfreezes.

YJB: Eldorado 25G looks great. I have never been in that building and don't know anyone that lives there. Difficult to have a relative value opinion on the building. But in brief, I think 81-82 CPW has greater value than 90-91 CPW. Back to The Beresford. It looks 9,16 and 17E all traded in the last few years 7mm-9mm. During the recent Tulip Bubble (aka NYC housing bubble circa 2002-2007) many things occurred that could be coming unglued. Large apt premiums, weak apts in great buildings, apts in poor condition etc..etc. There is also fair evidence to suggest that the "premier" address premium was one of the biggest bubbles of all. So, if you put these previous sales at $2,000psf where does that put 3E? Don't underestimate the noise and congestion of living and sleeping 25-30 feet above 81 and CPW. Final number, apt closes Sept 2009 for $4,300,000

I"m sure when West81st weighs in s/he will tell you the El Dorado is one of THE premier CPW buildings. Wish I could afford it--dreamed about living there ever since reading Marjorie Morningstar so many years age.

patient: $4.3 is a bold prediction. We'll see. BTW, I think 17E in the Beresford (which sold for $9.4M in 5/06) had an extra room from one of the adjacent apartments.

YJBO,

If you think patient is bold projecting 4.3, what will you think of me projecting 3.5 or less--could be a lot less? Quite frankly, over 1000 psf for ANY apartment on a 3rd floor seems aggressive right now, let alone one with some issues. For instance, such a low floor at the Beresford can be problematic with the subway station and the transverse. Check out the combination at 50 RSD: much bigger, beautiful apartment, also a great building (although admittedly not the Beresford) and sitting on the market without a buyer.

The real estate market is in collapse. The truth is it is folly to predict where any ONE unit will trade; it is always possible someone will snap it up. But where do I think apartments like this will trade for the most part? 3.5 or less.

happyrenter: When do you think apts. like this will trade for $3.5M or less?

right now i dont think they are trading at all. when they DO trade, i expect it to be about $3.5, maybe by this summer or early fall.

I don't think happyrenter is crazy, but if it does happen, I expect it to take longer. My guess is that there will be too few truly desperate sellers in the short term, and just enough fools buying too early to make the decline drag out.

Gosh, the Beresford, the Eldorado... These are all so far out of my league I wouldn't even speculate about prices. DMF13 is right about the Eldorado being a top-tier coop (no matter what Bono says), but I don't think the 300 CPW address itself has ever commanded a big premium like the Beresford has. The apartments at 300 that fetch crazy prizy prices do so, IMO, because they are flat-out spectacular apartments. That tower unit is one of them, and so it might be a better yardstick for trophy properties than a low-floor listing at the Beresford. Then again, what I know about these buildings is mostly limited to what one can learn by pressing one's nose against the service entrance.

New one just listed at 262 CPW, no pictures yet--3 bd, 3.2m. DOn't know much about the building--how does it compare to 211 and 300 CPW?

262 CPW (AKA The White House) is a very good building, though a notch or two below the Beresford and the Eldorado.

I haven't seen the listing, but I assume for $3.2M, there are no direct park views.

YJBO: It faces south, across 86th. On the 13th floor, there's a chance of clearing Orwell (257 CPW) for some skyline, but I doubt there's much park visible.

Bit of history - Jerry Seinfeld bought in '98 (or later?) for a touch over 4m. Isaac Stern's old apt. Don't you think that
NYC is in a more tenuous economic situation than '98?

The White House is a nice CPW building, but it can't shine the Beresford's shoes. The Beresford is in the top 5 CPW and UWS buildings, and for many it's near the top. There is a premium for the building and someone who is accepted into the White House very well might not make it into the Beresford. That being said, there's still a premium for either the Beresford or Eldorado, and a premium for the tower units in both buildings.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372887-coop-211-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

Here's a new listing at the Beresford. Over $3K/sq. ft. for a 3rd floor apt. Yikes!

Comments?

I don't know if 3E and 3G are adjacent, but if they are you think they would bite on my 6mm bid for both apts?

For what it's worth, I've been in both the Beresford & the El Dorado (plus San Remo). The apts I visited had the legendary CPW sumptuous, gracious, spacious layouts.
Agree with the discussion: In general, I think the Beresford would be at a higher premium than the ED because it's further south. Obviously, price would be effected by apt size, layout, views, floor & condition. If you're considering these blds, watch, wait & try to go for it.

Underscoring the difference in pricing between the Beresford and Eldorado, consider this new listing for a three-exposure, non-park-view Eldorado 7 at BHS:
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=984959
Even without pictures, floorplan or condition details, I think we can all agree that the initial ask on the same apartment at 211 CPW would be substantially higher than $3.7MM.

west81st, you are on point. you catch them about thirty seconds after they hit the broker websites. there is no doubt that the beresford commands significantly higher prices than does the el dorado. but a tower residence in the el dorado is something special. a 3rd floor apartment at the beresford, while undoubtedly lovely, is not special.

81...this new listing at the el dorado may be nice, hopefully so. With a starting price of 3.7mm, makes you think they actually want to sell it and are not a typical CPW dreamer. However, no park view, stinks!

The Beresford nine (#3G) that YJBO linked above was just reduced $1MM, after less than three weeks on the market: http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=961628.

At $10.5MM, it probably still has a ways to go. Great apartment, great line, but people with that kind of money have a lot of options now, and not much competition. They don't have to settle for the third floor.

thanks for the update, but i agree, that is nowhere near what that apartment should trade at in this market. i just don't see a huge premium for a park view when the apartment is on the third floor.

#3G is not even on planet earth:
This is how 3G will play, assuming owner wants to sell it, and is not just on a fishing expedition:

StreetEasy History

01/06/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $11,500,000
01/23/2009 price reduced to $10,500,000
2/12/2009 price reduced to $9,200,000
4/04/2009 price reduced to $8,200,000
5/10/2009 price reduced to $7,500,000
7/06/2009 listing removed by Brown Harris Stevens
7/06/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman and Anne Cutbill Lenane at $6,800,000
9/18/2009 price reduced to $5,200,000
10/10/2009 listing entered in contract
1/15/2010 sale closed for $4,300,000

Also, at the St. Urban, 285 CPW

Ed's old apt finally got its first chop

StreetEasy History

09/19/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $7,800,000
01/23/2009
Price decreased to $7,400,000

ed?

The great, late, Ed Bradley

Patient09: You left something out of the timeline:

06/26/2009 All-cash buyer at $6,250,000 rejected by Board of Directors of Beresford Apartments, Inc.

chuckle chuckle nice

oh he was great, that's for sure. the apartment is going to have good karma. i hate to say it, because i can only wish the best to his family, but i think the apartment is still majorly overpriced for this market--that handy little prediction you have for beresford 3g could be applied here as well. it is not as outlandish a price, but it also isn't in the beresford.

I have been in it. It is full of ultra cool stuff. It is a touch dated. You could live in it fine..or do a significant updating, no gut, but major updating.

So which do you think is a better building, 151 cpw (kenilworth) or 262 cpw (the white house)? the kenilworth is considered to be in the same rank as beresford, san remo, dakota, etc., as far as i can tell from its ranking in top 10 lists of best cpw buildings. but maybe that's just in terms of architecture, location, but not as a building to live in?

others may have better opinions on the question than me. But, for a family, I just think the Kenilworth is a far superior location than the White house. If I am going to be up that far(86). I would rather be in the St. Urban or the El Dorado. I actually think they are both second tier. I prefer Beresford, San Remo, Chatham, Majestic and St. Urban. followed by Kenilworth and El Dorado.

sorry, brain fart, not Chatham, but the Langham

you prefer the st. urban to the kenilworth? for what possible reason?

great future chronology, p09.

hpr: u know better than that...doing too many things at once...flip flop that St U and Kenil..u right, my typo bad

i agree patient: the Beresford apartment is nice, but the asking price is an alternate reality. The owners, if serious sellers, will find out soon.

"The owners, if serious sellers, will find out soon."

I'm trying to figure out the psychology of sellers in this market.

BFG: Do you think people will bid on this apt., or will they be scared away by the ridiculous asking price?

Good question, who knows, I have always felt that if I am not willing to meet the owner half way, then whats the point. If I see a piece of art that is listed at 8k, but I want to pay 6k, I would bid him 4K and try to meet in the middle. Problem in current RE mkt is many highend apts are like this. Offered at 10mm..I want to pay 4mm. So what do I do? bid minus 2mm. Doesn't make sense, so just ignore it till it gets where you can bid and leave room to negotiate.

YJBO: I have no idea what will happen. I agree with patient on this 100%. This apartment is so overasked that either the sellers are not serious or they are just plain stupid (or their broker is). I dont think this apartment is worth more than 1700-1800 psf assumi gthey could find a buyer today. Since it is priced at like 3k pdf, whats the point for me to make a bid? The gap between the ask and the apts vlaue is so great it leaves no room for negotiation. Just wait and watch. Either this was a fishing expedition or this apartment is going to go through some massive price cuts. Patient laid it out for you perfectly.

what the hell is a bellweather?

Bellweather: a marker of a change in outlook, pricing, thinking, etc.

In the stock market, a bellwether is the stock of a company that is regarded as a leader in its given industry. The performance of the stock is said to reflect the performance of the industry in general. These stocks are used as barometers for the rest of the market. IBM is an example of a bellwether stock. As a major player in the computer industry in the US, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. Applies to Real Estate as well.

Similar situation on the opposite edge of superprime UWS:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/316223-coop-100-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

Just cut another $750K, to $4.5MM. Great apartment, huge park frontage. But it's on the third floor, and the remaining super-wealthy buyers have better options. I suspect 535 WEA is a real problem for this listing; the size and the two kitchens might have snagged one of the families who signed at 535.

w81: as usual you are on point. "remaining super-wealthy buyers" have way to many options to pay up for the third floor. My take: worth $1200 psf, so maybe $3.25mm- ish. Why exactly is it that two kitchens are desirable?

I would imagine two kitchens is highly desirable if you keep kosher as one can be for meat and one dairy.

re: 151 CPW - there r 3 apartments per floor, two with park views & one in the back of the building with city & westward views. If u search the building here you can see one of each on the market now. it's a much smaller building than the other on that list. the feeling is much less formal there, and they actually went so far as to have a birthday party for the building last year - it turned 100 - and invited all past & present occupants, at least two bold face (read entertainment) families live there but very low key.

Good services but one of the knocks for some people might be that as the elevator is attended, they only have an actual "front door" doorman some of the time.

The apartment for 3,600,000 looks tempting but as it's on the 2nd floor you give up a lot of light as it abuts the church directly, and so there are no northern windows at all on the 2nd floor I don't think.

Back to #3E at the Beresford... Who's representing Streeteasy at the open house on Tuesday?

My wife is going to go, I will try to get her to type something up tues or wed

Cool - I hope she has a nicer wardrobe than I do. I wouldn't get past the doormen.

west 81..how can I contact you

West81st@gmail.com

west81st, i just sent you an email following up on the private real estate correspondence we had a few weeks ago,

81: no go to Beresford today, went to 3 apts at 101 CPW instead, sorry.

101 CPW is nice too. At just $25.7MM (plus construction costs), 11E/12E looks looks tempting.

By the way, the owner of 11E isn't THAT Timothy Dalton, so hold the James Bond references. I wonder what's going on with 12E. Has it been empty for two+ years?

How does the BOLIVAR, 230 CPW, rank among the co-ops on CPW? Is it considered good/bad/indifferent?

didn't see 11E or 12E went to 16G, 4B and 5B. 16G and 4B were a waste of time.

RWZ: IMO, 230 is nice, but not special. Lots of combo apartments, so the layouts vary from excellent to awkward, and maintenance psf tends to run rather high. Although the building is smaller than 225, I think they share a somewhat jumbled quality and a lack of the "wow" factor you get in the great CPW buildings. Common areas are OK: lobby is very attractive; hallways not so much.

West 81st any comment on classic 7 at 277 west end that was taken off market. Is it sold? We kept deciding if to bid on it and how low. The size and location were very tempting and the price would be at about 1.75. Any large apts in the w70s which could be had for 700/ft? thank you

West 81st, what is your opinion of 262 cpw (the white house)? The other apartment we were interested in at 151 cpw is now in contract.

buyer09: Sorry - I don't know the building well enough to express a useful opinion.

Bela: I haven't paid much attention to 277 WEA #6C since I saw it months ago. Seemed to be a pretty messed-up situation with an overcommitted buyer who needed to get out of a contract on one apartment after buying two, but who wasn't prepared to face reality about the loss he was going to have to take. The whole story might have been fiction or spin. I suggest you call the Corcoran broker (D. Douglas?) and just ask him what's going on.

Patient09: Apparently, the market shares your view of 101 CPW #4B as a "waste of time": reduced $755K yesterday. Still crazy at $9.995MM, though that bedroom mural has to be worth at least $2MM.
http://www.olshan.com/images/276330/large10.jpg

I agree with you on that. I love that building but it just seems like dream land. The 3 apts for sale in the "G" line will need some major price adjustments. I just don't get the line working that well. Would rather live on Columbus for 25% of the price. The "B" line in my view is great. 5B is much nicer than 4B. The photographer should win an award for his work with 4B. The CPW and southern light is awesome. The "E" line units have much greater CP frontage and dramatic views of CP, yet no southern light.

I tend to think 5B will be the first trade in this building, price point will be curious. Unless someone with deep pockets needsthe higher floor "E" and stretches. Equally, I think the first trade in 285 will be 8S.

patient,

isn't it a bit academic at this point? all of those apartments are asking above their peak comps in the building--some quite significantly above. unless someone pulls a rabbit out of the hat none of these is going to trade at all until the prices get slashed--not by 7% like they did yesterday on 4B, but by 50%.

yep, but I am not a "doom and gloomer". just pragmatic

Why so many for sale in 101 CPW? And I thought the only people who ever left the Beresford were carried out on a stretcher. I wonder if any of these owners have anything in common with Sandy Koufax or Steven Spielberg.

101 central park west is not the beresford.

jake: 101 is the building south of the Majestic. 5 of the 7 units at 101 were on the mkt way before Leh and Madoff. I think they were just simply too high orginal asks. Hoping the marquee name still demanded ever higher prices. I guess they were a bit off on their thoughts.

Happyrenter: I think price discovery will proceed rather rapidly. Look at 55 CPW. #11F hit the market in mint condition at $4.195, and lasted less than three weeks. By contrast, #13FG (same apartment with a few west-facing rooms annexed in the back, in unknown condition) arrived two seeks later at $8.95MM. #11F sets the market once it closes, maybe sooner. #13FG can adjust or languish. It doesn't really matter. With suppy rising rapidly, sellers who are that far out of touch with reality are easy to ignore.

Jake: Fair point. If 50 CPW #8C/D hits the market, it's another sign that Spielberg's circle is hurting: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/33104 (Hey, she had to put the other $93MM from the divorce settlement somewhere.)

west81st,

that's my exact point. it is academic to predict which apartments will trade first among a group of overpriced units because we have no idea which sellers are going to get with reality. the market has changed: it doesn't seem completely dead like it did in the 4th quarter--in part because prices on many units have fallen, but in the 4th quarter it sort of seemed like things could be cut and cut and still languish. that has changed. interestingly, that actually increases the incentive for price cutting and aggressive pricing because a good price can get a deal.

HR, patient,

Thanks for the geography lesson but yes i know 101 is not the Beresford. Not sure where i said i thought they were one and the same.

West81st,

Took me about a nano second to find 3E on the Madoff list. There will be others caught up in this train wreck that will be looking for liquidity.

here is where you very clearly implied it:

Why so many for sale in 101 CPW? And I thought the only people who ever left the Beresford were carried out on a stretcher. I wonder if any of these owners have anything in common with Sandy Koufax or Steven Spielberg.

obviously just a misunderstanding.

jake: I think HR may have meant it snidely, as in: "I know the Beresford. I've been to the Beresford. 101 CPW, you're not the Beresford."

It's pretty close to the same class, though. Lacks name recognition, which is fine with most of the residents.

Thus ends my career as HR's translator.

jake, re: 211 CPW 3E, just not a fan of the low floor facing trees, regardless of pedigree of building. Unfortunately, owners distress may help a new buyers hand. It will still clear at a pretty penny. Just not mine.

The nice, west-facing seven at the Eldorado just took a $205K haircut:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/373252-coop-300-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

steve,

this apartment is nice. i'm not sure whether i'd call it west-facing or south-facing, but i'd certainly call it a great apartment.

I think we discussed this a few weeks ago

225 CPW large space, big chop today.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/226564-coop-225-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

thanks patient. this apartment is such a tough one. on the one hand, in terms of views, location, size, park frontage, and commanding the south-east corner, the apartment is superior to plenty of places asking $10 million or more (and certainly superior to places that have sold for $10 million or more). on the other hand, the layout is pretty ridiculous and while it can be improved the apartment will always be somewhat of a railroad. the building is charming in its way but it is quirky--it is mostly made up of small apartments and even at this price the unit would be the third highest sale price in the building. this is a function of the fact that it is the largest apartment that has sold in the building since 2004 and possibly going back even further. west81st has expressed concern that the building may be in for some financial problems.

all in all, i think that the combination of size, views, and location, is going to be enough to tempt someone to take a bit of a risk on the other factors at this price. given what patient is looking for, i really think you should take a peak at this apartment. i imagine the views are just magnificent and the location can't be beat.

I tend to agree. If the buiding is ok financially, I would do a massive renovation to the apt. Would need a major discount to get to an all-in price that works though. Plus, would have a bit of a concern about over spending for the building.

patient why don't you go see the apartment? the required renovation might be a lot less massive than you think.

I wonder if the layout is as bad in person as it looks on paper. Sure looks like a total redo from the floorplan and pics. Not sure about the magnificent views. Magnificent might start around the eighth or ninth floor.

The Alden scares me. No inside information here, just a gnawing feeling that the building was lifted by a rising tide and could get beached - especially combination apartments that were created because there wasn't sufficent supply in the higher-end buildings. Of course, there's a price where it's worth the added risk.

west81st,

that's the situation here for sure. but i have good friends who live right down the block in the beresford, on the 5th floor, without the southern exposure, and the views are unquestionably spectacular. 6th floor is plenty high.

Don't make me pull out my relief map of the Upper West Side. :o)

There's a ridge that runs from 82nd to 84th along the western edge of the Park. Looking east from the sixth floor of the Alden, I think you see trees. Not sure; it's very close, but I think the pictures confirm it. Nice skyline view to the south, though.

Alright kids, enough arguing about treetops. The Alden is clearly a second class citizen. How about 101 CPW another new listing. 4A comes on with a better price point. 4B and 5B can't be too happy.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385301-coop-101-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york