If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

Speaking of "close to good private schools", it might be a little TOO close to Columbia Grammar and Columbia Prep. IIRC, CG's rooftop play area is adjacent to 56's living room. But yes, it's worth a look for value. Maybe the rough edges on the renovation have been tidied up since I saw it.

470 West End Avenue "B" line. Large, corner six. As discussed elsewhere, this is arguably the best line in a very nice building, although the "A" line is bigger. #4B closed last week for $2.175MM. #14B appears to have just closed too.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
06/08/2009 #14B Price not available |↓ $1,900,000 2 beds 2.5 baths
06/01/2009 . #4B . $2,175,000 -5.4% |↓ $2,300,000 Sold 3 beds 2.5 baths
10/17/2008 . #10B . $2,300,000 -6.1% |↓ $2,450,000 Sold 2 beds 2.5 baths
06/21/2006 . #6B . $2,710,290 +18.1% | . $2,295,000 3 beds 2 baths
08/24/2004 . #5B . $1,952,000 ......... |

The renovation of #4B is not my cup of tea, but it looks fairly expensive. Low floor is a minus. The sellers of #4A traded up to one of the historic 5th-floor apartments at 300 WEA.

Continuing with the "B" line at 470 West End Avenue. Stunning print on #14B.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
06/04/2009 #14B $1,600,000 -15.8% |↓ $1,900,000 2 beds 2.5 baths
06/01/2009 . #4B . $2,175,000 . -5.4% |↓ $2,300,000 Sold 3 beds 2.5 baths
10/17/2008 #10B . $2,300,000 . -6.1% |↓ $2,450,000 Sold 2 beds 2.5 baths
06/21/2006 . #6B . $2,710,290 +18.1% | . $2,295,000 3 beds 2 baths
08/24/2004 . #5B . $1,952,000 ............ |

#14B was an estate sale, and needed work, but $1.6MM is a very nice buy for an excellent, high-floor six.

Just like 9B at 490 West End. It's been a bad week for B lines on WEA............

Re 470 WEA 14B.....another estate sale crushing the market. Current owners of apartments on WEA should pitch in for life support equipment! The buyers of 4B can't be happy with their broker today. How pissed would you be to know that you just paid $575k more for an aparment 10 floors down. Blub, blub, blub, gurgle, gurgle, gurgle....underwater before the ink is dry. Ouch!

i would shoot myself.

81: how big are these "B" line units at 470 WEA

P09: I think the big thing about the B line here is that it's all outward facing, which is usually a feature of the bigger lines in WEA buildings.

walterh7: Consider this - two days after #4B went to contract, the asking price on #14B dropped from $2.2MM to $1.9MM. Nine days later, #14B went to contract for $1.6MM. From $2.2MM to $1.6MM in a week and a half - and that included the whole contract process? Hmmmmm... By accident or design, #14B seems to have protected #4B by sticking to an unrealistically high price.

P09: You're better at F2 geometry that I am. #4B was listed as 2000. I don't think that's too far off - no more than 10%. I agree with 10023 - the key is the corner location, which provides a lot of light and flexibility. #6B split the corner BR into two kids' rooms, and it works pretty well.

so roughly $800 per sq ft.

"By accident or design, #14B seems to have protected #4B by sticking to an unrealistically high price."

wow, that is not so weird with a estate sale. even the heirs might be friends with previous owners of 4B.

Good point, W81. From the perspective of a buyer who wants an apt in a building with multiple listings, I would always go for an estate (more negotiable) and put bids on both.

The buyers of 6B must be quaking with rage/anxiety - they paid 2.7m in a heated bidding war in '06.

oh no...goes right to my inner fears.

if the estate sale is a useful comp then 6B is in the hole to the tune of $1M. but how useful is a estate sale as a comp?

What inner fears?

Estate sales are useful, because they can illustrate what the "bottom line" of a market is - estates prefer all-cash deals, and it indicates the min. price someone is willing to pay.

maybe in the old days but it seems to me that a sale is a sale...yeah, owners can say, that was an estate but if as a buyer you have the comp, are you really going to go higher?

My point was that estates look for all-cash, fast deals. That's a smaller pool of buyers overall. I don't know the specific situation for 14B, but it wouldn't surprise to find that they received multiple offers at the lowest ask, but went for the cash deal.

W81..."Consider this - two days after #4B went to contract, the asking price on #14B dropped from $2.2MM to $1.9MM. Nine days later, #14B went to contract for $1.6MM. From $2.2MM to $1.6MM in a week and a half - and that included the whole contract process? Hmmmmm... By accident or design, #14B seems to have protected #4B by sticking to an unrealistically high price."

Why would a BHS deal (14B) care about protecting a Sotheby's (4B) deal? It could be interesting to know who the buyer's broker was on the 4B deal...and the 14B deal.

"My point was that estates look for all-cash, fast deals. "

and also the pool of buyers is reduced by having to do a gut renovation. so it's not obvious that a estate sale has the same effect on pricing as a normal transaction. that's why i'm asking.

"Why would a BHS deal (14B) care about protecting a Sotheby's (4B) deal? It could be interesting to know who the buyer's broker was on the 4B deal...and the 14B deal. "

maybe both previous owners are friends? maybe both of them lived forever in the same building?

I am concurring, but it's useful to have as a bottom line.

I think that once 4B went into contract, 14B reduced accordingly (probably having had a whiff of 4B contract price) for condition. Presented with an all-cash, extremely qualified buyer, the estate made the decision to have the cash now.

what's the time advantage for a seller of having a buyer that pays with cash as supposed to taking a mortgage?

A few months, and always the greater uncertainty of whether the deal will fall apart last minute due to sudden unavailability of financing.

10023.. "I think that once 4B went into contract, 14B reduced accordingly (probably having had a whiff of 4B contract price) for condition. Presented with an all-cash, extremely qualified buyer, the estate made the decision to have the cash now." That is one super-high-end-gold-plated renovation to price in. We are talking about $575k.

How much less should an estate deal go for. If two apartments are comparable, one is mint, the other is an estate, what should be the difference in price? How much does it cost to gut rennovate an apartment like this? Thoughts?

ok. so most of the weight goes to the uncertainty of closing and the almost certainty that a new price reduction will be needed if that happens. bet that in declining markets the advantage of paying with cash can get you a nice discount. in a mkt with bidding wars is mostly irrelevant.

"one is mint, the other is an estate, what should be the difference in price?"

would love to know too. guess that there are tons of outliers you cannot use at all. like a estate that smell as if 100 cats were living there. heard that you cannot get rid of that smell even with a super whooper reno. would that transaction be a comp?

Yep, walter. The issue is that sellers don't respond in the same way at the same time. You don't have the full advantage of playing off 14B against 4B because the sellers of 14B would not necessarily have accepted a 1.6m cash offer when 4B was on the market.

EAO: Say reno costs are 300k turnkey (150/sqft) - you just hand the $ over to architect, designer, and put in little sweat equity. You do save 200k+ going with the estate, but I know so many people for whom renovation holds no interest. I'm a reno junkie but my pain tolerance is very high.

Imagine a situation in which the estate at 14B had been a little more rationally priced from the beginning and accepted a sub 2m (say 1.8m) offer before 4B. 4B might have been under greater pressure and gone for not much more than 1.8m, if that. Then the buyers of 4B would have owned a mint condition apt without the hassles & costs of renovating, making back for the 9 or 10 flrs of height.

"I'm a reno junkie"

did you do one yourself?

Nyc10023, do you think that rennovation costs are more negotiable in this economy? I had always factored $300K in my mind as the cost of rennovating a large 6 ( skim coating, new electrical, floors, gut on kitchen & bathrooms ), my husband thinks it would be even higher. I've got to believe that there are a lot of deals to be had in this environment

Absolutely, more negotiable. I'm doing some minor work now, and people are calling me back multiple times on quotes whereas they wouldn't have bothered with an estimate to start off with. You have to be VERY careful in this economy because people are hurting for cash so badly that it's possible that the # of crooks who would run off with your initial deposit have increased. Take the money and run, as opposed to doing the job with subs/workers they have to pay.

I would not pay more than 300k for a renovation of a 6 (yes, I know they are all different sizes). I "personally" have done 4 renovations in Manhattan - not lifting a hammer myself but procuring all materials, subbing out jobs when cost demanded. Visiting work site at least once every 2 days. Frequent face-to-face meetings and phone calls with contractors.

Now that I've done a few renos, I would be very comfortable subbing out jobs for an apt (provided the co-op was amenable). Less risk of someone walking away with a large deposit.

If at all possible, EAO, do minimal renovations (floors, painting, electricals, skim-coating) and then move in. So often, your ideas of what you want change once you live in the space.

In co-ops, a lot of the costs become inflated due to building requirements.

i also wonder to what extent in this markett that which was previously considered necessary as a renovation is now seen as a luxury that may not be recaptured in a subsequent sale.

I understood the reno question as the costs of doing a "gut" where an apt hasn't been touched in 30+ years. I'm an advocate of the light touch in prewar apts. I would not move any walls unless absolutely necessary, would preserve vintage baths & kitchens (and that costs $), but I would update electricals & skim coat.

ah...i misunderstood. but what you are suggesting isn't a $300K job, is it?

during a crash like this not only labor should be cheaper (you can get much better people for same price) but also materials should be cheaper. people i know are bidding on building materials and stocking to build a farmhouse a few years from now. sounds like great timing to me.

CC: in a fussy, fussy co-op, it can really add up. You would need an architect that can deal with supplying all the docs they want & subs who carry the necessary million+ insurance.

Preserving vintage stuff, stripping woodwork, etc. is very expensive and time-consuming. Not to mention the plaster artisans. It's rare to find the estate that has details that aren't covered in millions of layers of paint (50RSD, CD combo was a rare exception to this).

interesting...I still wonder about getting your reno money out in the future. you know, with houses, rule of thumb is that putting in a pool is a dead loss, you may recoup around 80% on new kitchen, etc. as base prices come down (and without getting into a debate at this point, lets say 50%) reno costs are unlikely to come down that much so suddenly the percentage involved goes way up.

in other words, putting $300-$400 K in a $2.5 million home all in is quite different than $200-$300 K in a $1.5 million unit.

Will be interesting to see.

"Getting your reno money out" is entirely the wrong way to be thinking about renos. What should guide you in buying an unrenovated place and your reno costs is simply what a similar renovated apartment would sell for. If you buy an unrenovated apt for 1m, look at what similar renovated apts are selling for and use that as a "max" limit for your renovations.

i think we're saying the same thing...problem of course comes from choice of esthetics.

Esthetics - if it's a "coffin out" apt, then do whatever you like. If it's a prewar apt, just bear in mind why you bought prewar to start with. Those vintage features have, in general, stood the test of time. Subway tiles, cast iron tubs, pedestal sinks. Ditto oak-fronted glassed cabinets, crown moldings, etc. Tamper with those features at your peril. If you need to do a renovation, just replicate or renovate in such a way as to not mess with the classic nature of the apt. You can still put your personal touches/customize in a few places. Buy furnishings that you like (and can take with you). Realtors love to extoll builtins. Newsflash: most buyers hate them because they can't picture themselves with other people's builtins. Also, builtins become dated very fast.

One of the most timeless interiors I've seen was an apt featured in the NYtimes - a modest 2-bedroom with a non-park facing terrace in the El Dorado owned by an architect couple. They did nothing! Except to paint and keep the floors. And guess what, their place looks timeless.

And remember, renovations have a depreciation curve, it is not straight line. The curve is probably explained by the analogy of an automobiles depreciation schedule. First several years it depreciates pretty rapidly, then levels off. As a buyer do you care it if is a 15yr old renovation that needs work or a 30yr reno that needs work. Not your problem that owner wasted his money. The early part of the depreciation curve is recaptured through enjoyment of use, not expected future gain in sale.

in both cases I would say they have depreciated to zero. although stuff like through the wall ac and new windows probably holds their value for quite a while.

yep. i've always enjoyed articles about renovations that show the bubble so clearly. articles with titles like "return on replacing your rotten windows". non-bubble talk includes recognizing that part of what was considered "reno"-investment during the bubble is just on going necessary maintenance.

P09: I disagree. A brand new (as in never lived in) reno doesn't sell for appreciably more than that same reno, lived in for 2 years (assuming minimal wear/tear & classic lines). I've never seen any example to the contrary on the UWS. Speaking generally, the mileage on each individual renovation differs based on wear-and-tear, the esthetics, maintenance, etc. Some things done right and maintained over 30 years need not be done again (wood floors, electricals, restoration of details). A move-in condition apt that is not ugly would still sell for more than an "estate" apt.

folks, my apologies for butting in, but the reno discussion has been a pretty lengthy tangent off of comps. The comps threads are really great, but they get diluted by long stretches of discussion on other topics. I don't mean to act as the tangent police, but I guess there is no denying that that is what I am doing in. Just my two cents.

sorry...you're right.

Maybe we should start a rennovation discussion

nyc10023: u missed my point..will continue on the reno thread

"guess that there are tons of outliers you cannot use at all"

No such thing as "tons of outliers". If there are that many, they are no longer outliers - they are data points indicating a large SD.

re: all cash deals: It's not just the timing factor. in addition to the certainty factor of not having to get financing, the odds of a Coop Board turning down someone putting in 100% equity are vastly lower than someone leveraging.

"P09: I disagree. A brand new (as in never lived in) reno doesn't sell for appreciably more than that same reno, lived in for 2 years (assuming minimal wear/tear & classic lines). I've never seen any example to the contrary on the UWS."

I have personal experience to the contrary. We made a business of delivering "brand new prewar apartments" and almost always got significant premiums over "recently" renovated units in the very same buildings (and a number were on WEA). Unless it was just because my design skills were so superior to the Interior Designers and Architects who were involved in those renovations.(obviously we can't talk about "the same reno's, because we didn't copy anyone else's reno - but in each case we paid significantly less and got significantly more).

"No such thing as "tons of outliers". If there are that many, they are no longer outliers - they are data points indicating a large SD."

uf, depends on the definition of outlier if you want to be precise and the size of your sample... and you def of tons too. no black and white thinking.

Also, historically, many buyers of estate sales have NOT properly factored in the impact of the estate condition and have overpaid in "up" markets. Conversely, in down markets many have gotten better deals sine so few people are willing to do lots of work (and it's all cash - for the work which makes a lot of difference when HELOCS become more scarce).

Another thing which happens which I could never understand: a buyer sees an apartment with a barely servicable kitchen, baths, etc. and doesn't make a discount for it. But if they see one where they think it needs a new kitchen, bath, etc. they want a discount OFF OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UNIT, based on a high end renovation. In other words, buyer looks at 2 units in the building, one with a $12,000 kitchen and 2 $6,000 baths vs, a wreck. They want a discount of $50,000 for the kitchen and $20,000 each for the baths because that's what a high end reno would cost.

is anyone else already tired of the recent overuse of the word outliers. another reason to dislike malcolm gladwell aside from his hair.

malcolm gladwell... had no idea who the guy is, he looks odd but familiar at the same time. like the guy that might have inspired krusty the clown. don't like the new yorker. he's described as a pop pseudo sociologist, that's what i don't like from the magazine. kind of funny.

Re: "In other words, buyer looks at 2 units in the building, one with a $12,000 kitchen and 2 $6,000 baths vs, a wreck. They want a discount of $50,000 for the kitchen and $20,000 each for the baths because that's what a high end reno would cost."

My building's sponsor says the same thing. Always does a nominal renovation when his apts are surrendered. Buyers pay a good chunk more than they would for unrenovated, even when they're going to start from scratch.

I am convinced that somewhere in NJ there are tons of $150,000 house with Subzero, Viking Meile, etc. appliances because the super of some new construction condo in Tribeca lives there (in NJ) and offered to cart all that stuff away for free when the people bought them (the Tribeca condos) because of the finishes and then promptly ripped them out and installed new kitchens.

262 Central Park West "F" line: Large seven wide side park views; converts easily to 4BR.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
** CURRENT ** #6F ...................... |↓ $3,200,000 3 beds
* CONTRACT * #12F ...................... | . $3,200,000 3 beds
05/21/2009 #13F $2,900,000 -9.4% | . $3,200,000 Sold 3 beds 2 baths
02/15/2005 #10F $3,050,000 ......... |
10/18/2004 . #9F $2,650,000 ......... |
#13F went to contract after only six weeks on the market. #9F and #10F were both estate sales, so it seems reasonable to call $2.9MM a late 2004-early 2005 price for #13F, which was sold by living owners and featured some significant update, including through-wall A/C in main rooms.

big difference between 6 and 13 at 262 CPW. The building to the South is basically cleared at 12/13th floor so open Southern view and ton more light.

Be interesting to see what 12F went into contract at but they removed the half bath for the bigger kitchen. Much nicer condition than 6F though.

200 West End Avenue #10C: The owners were competing with a massive inventory dump by Columbia University, so their result could have been a lot worse. But when you factor in transaction costs and leverage of over 85% on the original purchase, it's pretty close to an equity wipeout.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
06/04/2009 #10C $1,587,500 -5.2% | $1,675,000 Sold 2 beds 2.5 baths 1,431 ft²
03/04/2008 #10C $1,699,000 .......|
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/200-west-end-avenue-new_york

"a massive inventory dump by Columbia University"

well well... columbia university should be trading as a REIT by now. it's more in the biz of real estate (2nd landlord in manhattan) than into education. columbia was dumping some units they thought that faculty will grab (they were offering some incentives to them, like putting the downpayment and the rent subsidy to go towards the mortgage monthly) but few took it. that incentive was offered to incoming tenured, not sure if to already settled faculty too.

the listing for that maligned apartment 3AB at 522 west end is gone. The price was never lowered. what does that mean? did it sell? did they merely put their toes in the water to check the temperature?

Beresford, 15J, went into contract, last ask 2.995m. 8J (?) still on the market at 3.5.

342 West 85th #1A: A much discussed short sale closes, 29% below the seller's 2006 basis.
StreetEasy History
05/26/2006 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,350,000.
09/26/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $1,325,000.
03/14/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,450,000.
08/27/2008 Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $1,250,000.
09/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,298,000.
02/13/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $1,150,000.
03/19/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $995,000.
05/27/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/11/2009 Sale recorded for $940,000.

I don't know whether $940K is a particular bargain. The 2006 transaction at $1.325MM and the related $1.192MM in borrowing are just sad.

165 W. 66th, 10Q, estate sale. 9Q sold for $435k in '04. Julia's alcove studio, still a bit too high for her, i'd think, but getting closer.

05/08/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $600,000.
11/08/2008 Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $495,000.
12/02/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $495,000.
03/31/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/08/2009 Sale recorded for $400,000.
06/09/2009 Listing sold.

490 West End Avenue "A" line: corner classic eight with four real bedrooms and one maid's room. Main drawbacks of the line are smallish DR and LR and tight closet space. #11A was sensibly priced and sold in about two months, at a 2004 level.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
06/15/2009 #11A $2,700,000 -12.5% | $3,085,000 Sold 4 beds 2.5 baths
10/17/2006 . #6A $3,200,000 - 2.9% | $3,295,000 4 beds 3 baths
06/06/2006 . #7A $3,400,000 .......... |
06/14/2005 . #2A $2,802,000 + 4.0% | $2,695,000 4 beds 2 baths
06/29/2004 #1OA $2,595,000 .......... |
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/490-west-end-avenue-manhattan
#14B was an estate sale, and needed work, but $1.6MM is a very nice buy for an excellent, high-floor six.

Sorry - the last line of the previous post, referring to #14B, was a copy/paste error.

2 Columbus Avenue, high floor "B" line: 2BR/2.5BA 1,507 sq.ft. #37B has already cut to 15% below the 2006 same-unit sale, without success. Now the new listing of #34B undercuts #37B by another 10%. The pricing of #34B reflects a decline from the peak lower-floor sale (#28B) of over 30%.
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #37B ...................... |↓ $1,995,000 2 beds
NEW LISTING #34B ...................... | . $1,800,000 2 beds
06/30/2008 #19B $2,100,000 -12.3% |↓ $2,395,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,507 ft²
03/27/2008 #28B $2,595,000 + 0.0% | . $2,595,000 Sold 2 beds 2.5 baths 1,507 ft²
06/14/2006 #37B $2,350,000 - 1.1% | . $2,375,000 2 beds 2.5 baths 1,507 ft²
05/17/2006 #18B $1,985,500 + 7.3% | . $1,850,000 2 beds 2.5 baths 1,507 ft²
05/26/2005 #35B $2,175,000 ......... |
10/19/2004 #39B $1,900,000 ......... |
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/2-columbus-avenue-manhattan

West81st, what were you doing up at 4 am? BTW if you are at all interested in my apt, speak now.

TP - Your apartment is probably just what we'll want in three or four years, if a few things break the right way. Thanks for thinking of us, and good luck with the endgame.

TP is your apt in the UWS, I asumme? Is it a condo? How much is it?

It's a classic 7 coop on West End.

18 West 90th Street Apt.E: Brownstone floor-through, asking 11% less than owners' Jan 2007 basis.
01/31/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $1,500,000.
04/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,749,000.
06/16/2008 Listing entered contract.
11/04/2008 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
11/04/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $1,695,000.
01/05/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,595,000.
04/03/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $1,449,000.
07/02/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,329,000.

So the buyer who didn't close on the June 2008 contract is a pretty happy camper.

Failed deals have been the kiss of death for a lot of listings. I guess the lesson is, "Choose your buyer carefully, because a higher price doesn't help you if the deal falls through."

Speaking of which, 5 RSD #3C is back on the market. It took thirteen months to find the first buyer, and now they have to reboot.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211829-coop-5-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

W81st, do you know what the story is with 5 RSD's deal falling through? How tough is the board?

w81 - another 5 RSD question. Am I crazy to look at 7A, just sold for $1,470,000 and 14B, listed at $895,000 and going nowhere, and wonder what the buyers of 11AB could have been thinking to pay $5,500,000 in 2007? Granted the combo and reno absorbed some big $ and actually having the contiguous units is very different from pricing the component parts on different floors, but still...a $3mm+ premium?

I make the 11AB trade to be $2,200+ psf for about 2,500 sf. Hard to get my brain around that.

sidelinesitter, same thing in my building during the bubble years, but there the size premium was only about 50%. At 5RSD, I have a B-line friend who's still -- still -- absolutely convinced it's worth >$1M by itself and $2M if bought by the neighbor.

This sale at 27 West 72nd St represents a 20% increase from the mid 2007 sales price.

06/04/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $1,570,000.
03/13/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,895,000.
03/15/2009 Price increased by 4% to $1,975,000.
05/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/04/2009 Listing sold.
06/04/2009 Sale recorded for $1,890,000.
06/13/2009 Listing sold.

See also #1110: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377905-condo-27-west-72nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

04/12/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $3,000,000.
04/21/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $5,600,000.
01/29/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $5,750,000.
04/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/12/2009 Sale recorded for $4,625,000.

Hmmm, the 2007 buyer also picked up #1010 from the sponsor for $3.2M, flipped for $6.2M in 2008. May not be arms-length.

spinnaker1... shouldn't you be plastering?

WOW, 1 unit that someone made money on (maybe let's see where it closes) => was it you? IF not, then maybe you missed the Sam Miller rpt pointing to 20% cut in prices and 50% decrease in activity....

One outlier does not an average make.....

:) Happy painting... it's gonna add 30% to your unit :)

203 West 90th PHA just locked in a 23% gain on their 2003 purchase.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/390853-condo-203-west-90th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

257 CPW #8B just closed 7% above 2007 price.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/390261-coop-257-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

05/03/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $800,000.
03/07/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $899,000.
04/08/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/09/2009 Listing sold.
06/09/2009 Sale recorded for $865,000.
06/24/2009 Listing sold.

wow, these are great comps. Can someone explain to me where the market is crashing? I would post my own comps, but I'm not a SE insider..

401 WEA #3D closed up 12% from 2006 sale.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/384666-coop-401-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

03/06/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $610,000.
02/17/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Fox Residential Group at $729,000.
04/16/2009 Listing sold.
06/03/2009 Sale recorded for $686,000.

27 West 72nd #311 closed 7% higher than 2007.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/380787-condo-27-west-72nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

04/27/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $820,000.
02/07/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $965,000.
04/22/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/09/2009 Listing sold.
06/09/2009 Sale recorded for $881,000.
06/25/2009 Listing sold.

20 West 77th St 6B up 9% from 2005.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377155-coop-20-west-77th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

02/11/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $980,000.
01/28/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,075,000.
02/11/2009 Listing entered contract.
05/01/2009 Listing sold.
05/01/2009 Sale recorded for $1,075,000.
05/29/2009 Listing sold.

W67th - I know pricing history on single units may be overly granular for this thread but I'm feeling too lazy today to look for same line comps. These are only May/June recorded sales. Took all of 30 minutes to find. I'll dig a little deeper for you after my nap.

wow! Spinniker1, you showed me 6 units that "maybe" made 3-4% CAGR on the biggest BUBBLE gamble in the history of NYC RE... my 3yo could've done better throwing dirty diapers on the WSJ and picking stocks. On an risk adjusted basis, NYC RE did not make sense and still does not....

DOH! one other thing.... about 990 of the comments on this thread is about units that sold for "LESS" than the prior sale... and there will be plenty more to come... nothing personal, but your unit is under water... I'd like to tell me friends about how under they are, but I like to come on-line anonymously to RANT...

Looked at a J105... nice but I need a cruiser for the little ones :) A little more comfort a little less race.. :)

re: 401 WEA 3D:

"Broker Summary New renovated kitchen Liebher Refrigerator Miele DW Viking Stove 10' ceilings plaster cove moldings, beautifully restored."

I'm not sure the price increase can be attributed to "appreciation" or renovation.

re: 257 CPW #8B

the buyer in the 05/03/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $800,000 buyer's address was 257 Central Park West, 8A, so who knows what happened? Also, the listing for 2007 does not appear in my listing system, so it might not have been a "market" transaction.

re: 27 West 72nd #311 closed 7% higher than 2007.

the building was converted 2006/2007. the contract on this unit was signed on or about June of 2006, so that's where the appreciation comes from.

re:20 West 77th St 6B up 9% from 2005.

"Broker Summary This pristinely designed and renovated Prewar 2BR/15BTH gem is pin-drop quiet while boasting open sun splashed southern exposure, soaring ceilings, mint windowed kitchen, gorgeous windowed bath, excellent closet and storage space and lovingly restored details throughout"

I'm not sure the price increase can be attributed to "appreciation" or renovation.

Nice work, 30yrs. It's also worth noting that in the two resales cited at 27 West 72nd, the sellers have the same (fairly unusual) last name. Don't know whether they were connected to the sponsor, but they are are almost certainly connected to each other.

I saw 20 West 77th #6B. Nice renovation, but also a very smart, very rich seller who could easily afford to walk away from that investment when she got married.

To be fair, one of the unavoidable biases of the "IYCDMMWC" threads is that it's generally a lot easier to attribute appreciation to factors other than market movement that it is to do the same with a drop in value.

I was intrigued by this quick glance at recent sales figures. It's clear some work has been done to some of these properties but isn't this also the case for many of those that went at a 30% loss? This wasn't an exhaustive search but it raises some questions as to the depth of decline in prime areas/buildings and seems to support some of the anecdotal comments I have been reading lately. In my opinion these results in the face of this market correction may be far more telling than the reasons behind them.

"To be fair, one of the unavoidable biases of the "IYCDMMWC" threads is that it's generally a lot easier to attribute appreciation to factors other than market movement that it is to do the same with a drop in value."

Well, I do think it's a lot easier to judge market drops with comps than market raises, because you know (or at least hope) that things like renovations don't contribute to a unit's price decrease. So I "trust" a lot more the numbers on the way down than I do on the way up. So, yes, it's a bias, but it's a "good one" in my mind, not a bad one.

"In my opinion these results in the face of this market correction may be far more telling than the reasons behind them. "

I'm really not looking to be a wise ass, but I can't figure out what you're trying to say.

Stack up all the reasons you can attribute to these increases but to me the results speak for themselves. So what does it tell us? Not all buyers read this thread, for one.