If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

EAO,

Congratulations on not making that purchase! Are you going to consider this apartment now? Perhaps that's an unfair question, but I assume that if you were going to consider it seriously you wouldn't be posting about it. So let me phrase this another way: if you aren't interested in 10D, any particular reason? Have you set your sights higher, now that the market is down? Or set your sights lower, now that your net worth is down?

happyrenter, now that the market has come down, we are setting our sites below 96th street. We only were seriously interested in the apartment at the time because it was the best deal in terms of size for the money. Now, with increased purchasing power and more inventory, we are more selective. My husband and I were fortunate in that we sold our apartment and were sitting all in cash waiting to buy another apartment, so our net worth is the same. However, given the economy and the direction the real estate market is heading, I am more reluctant to put down the money and give up the cash. By the way, I noticed the same broker is selling 10C as sold 10D.. pretty interesting.

Hey happ: You know I follow CPW pretty close, but there a couple of newish listings that might suit you. The White House. 262 CPW has 2 7 rooms apts for low $3mm's. They might trade in the low 2m's. I havn't been in this building because I am looking for >3ksft. But I think they both get south views angled to the park and plenty of sunshine.

6F http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/373871-coop-262-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york
and
13F http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372178-coop-262-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

thanks for the heads-up patient, but i'm a young single guy i am going to make a play for a great place in the village before i decide to compromise and suffer on central park west.

:)

by the way, you should know better than to tout angled views of the park. for shame! but those do look like very nice apartments, and if they trade in the low 2s i am sure the new owners will be very happy.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/250417-coop-151-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

what do you think of this one (151 cpw, 2N, the kenilworth) compared to the apartments at 262 cpw?

cool, for some reason I thought you had been talking highly of UWS and riverside dr. no worries

no problem patient. i try to keep up with CPW just in case....

buyer, i much prefer the 262 apartments, particularly the one on the 13th floor which seems to get some open views. i just don't want to live on the 2nd floor on a major avenue, even if it does face the park.

thanks. the 75th street location is more preferable than 86th, in some respects. and the front rooms look grander in proportion. 262 has full-time doorman, gym, children's playroom; 151 only has elevator man. so i guess they each have their pros and cons.

btw, why do you think the 262 apartments should trade in low 2's?

patient follows CPW more closely than i do. but i assume he is simply commenting on the overall downward movement of the market, especially in family-size apartments. right now i think he's overly optimistic (there are still sixes on west end asking over $2, let alone sevens on CPW) but give it a few months and it could happen.

i'd be surprised if that apartment at 151 traded for more than half what they originally asked for it.

No comment on 151. I just really don't care about street level or 2nd floor apts. The all trade in their own world for whatever goofy reason.
b09: I think most sixes on WEA and RSD that are actually trading are occuring in the $800-$900psft range. Inventory seems to continue to grow, so even that number will probaly continue lower. I think direct CPW views will eventually trade south of $1,500psft. If correct, all else is proportionally less.

This discussion probably fits in better with the one about beresford 3E as a bellwether for CPW prices...

Coming back to the "D" line duplex at 340 West 86th: after seeing it today, I'd like to commend the Elliman photographer for making that apartment look like a bright, inviting family home. It's a cramped hovel, and the spiral staircase belongs in a firehouse. Actually, a pole might be safer.

The initial price still marks a downward move vs. prior-sale comps, but I can't imagine anyone paying close to the ask unless they are absolutely set on a duplex condo.

I saw 340 W. 86th as well, although only because I was seeing 334 West 86th. I second West81st's comments. It's really more of a bachelor pad. And only for the slender. That spiral staircase has a diameter of, I don't know, about 12 inches.

The solution would be to replace the spiral with a real stair case. But apparently Lenane chided one of her assistants for bringing it up. So that kind of modification may be verboten.

ok, i give up - what "d" line duplex @ 340 west 86th? I see 3 listings for this building, all of them simplexes. What am I missing?

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1073730&rentalperiod=&SearchType=Broker_Current&Region=NYC&BID=ALC

Ariel West, #7C. Distressed same-unit resale, as discussed elsewhere:

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
01/26/2009 #7C $1,200,000 -17.2% |↓ $1,450,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,320 ft²
01/10/2008 #7C $1,558,000 .......... |

Sale date on the above was January 9th. Recorded today.

Just 'cause it's a little slow today . . .

I just read this in the Times - "At the beginning of 2008, Vikram S. Pandit, the head of Citigroup, owned shares in his company that were worth $31 million, according to Equilar. Today, his stake is worth $3.7 million" - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/business/27sorkin.html?hp -

And I thought to myself what it would be like if Pandit had to put his Beresford pad back on the market today - see Streeteasy under his name - he bot Tony Randall's old pad for $17,500,000.

I'm pretty sure that he's still got plenty of bread, but that move from $31mn to $3mn is pretty dramatic isn't it?

522 West End Avenue "A" line: Good-sized, front-facing classic six. Original layout has 2BR/2BA + maid's BR/BA, ~1650 sq.ft. Excellent Candela building. #6A, a shell that I think was mentioned on the original IYCDMMWC thread, was just reduced $50K, to $1.299MM.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #6A ...................... |↓ $1,299,000 2 beds 1,650 ft²
CURRENT ... #3AB ...................... | . $3,500,000 4 beds 2,700 ft²
06/05/2006 . #4A* $1,542,052 +3.1% | . $1,495,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,650 ft²

#3AB is a renovated combination, of which the "A" unit comprises nearly two thirds; we discussed it in last Sunday's "Open House" thread, and the consensus was that it's awkwardly laid-out, claustrophobic and severely overpriced. The lower #6A goes, the more overpriced #3AB looks.

The 2006 listing appears on Streeteasy in error as #5A, but was actually #4A. That apartment was in fair condition, and sold for $1.542MM. #6A needs everything. Facing West End, however, the two floors of elevation have significant value. Assuming it sells at ask or below (and it could go much lower) #6A looks like the next step in the downward progression of estate-condition sixes in excellent buildings.

Here's another update on a listing we've discussed elsewhere: 258 RSD #5D finally has a buyer after nearly two years on the market. Concurrent with marking it as "in contract", BHS reduced the price to $1.995MM.
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=942052

That doesn't mean the accepted bid was $1.995MM. The listing agent may have just wanted to reduce the shortfall so her pricing doesn't look quite so far off. It's a pretty common practice to reduce the ask after a bid is accepted, and not necessarily to the actual selling price.

Looking at comps, #2D sold for $2.445M in 2006.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/38215-coop-258-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york
#5D has true river views, unlike the treetop views from #2D. IMO, #2D was much more tasefully redone. A lot of money went into #5D, but the decor is a bit out there. Shouldn't be too hard to fix, though.

By the way, the main knock on 258 RSD in our previous discussion was the paucity of windows, especially facing west. It's a big minus.

5D is particularly hideous, but good condition. 50k will probably be enough to bring it into the realm of good taste. very curious what it sold for.

6A at 522 should put pressure on the Candela 6 at 320 West End. Very similar apartment, also needs everything, but that one is only on the 3rd floor and it is asking 1.45 I believe. The location at 75th street is perhaps somewhat more prime, but both are great. And 522 is a better building.

Apartment 12C at 670 West End Just came down another 10%. very large classic 5.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351633-coop-670-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

STREETEASY HISTORY
09/25/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,750,000
10/08/2008
Price decreased to $1,650,000
11/04/2008
Price decreased to $1,595,000
01/27/2009
Price decreased to $1,445,000

Recorded Sales:
07/11/2007 #8C $1,725,000 +8.2%

17% off the comp, and 4 floors up. No condition issues as far as I can make out.

I looked at 670 WEA in November. You're right - no condition issues. It's a perfectly nice apartment in a perfectly nice building. No view to speak of, and nothing to really distinguish it from the rising tide of competition. It's a tough sell, because the floorplan doesn't offer many options. A six would generally give you more choices, and there are a lot of sixes out there.

Astor Court 2BR/2BA asking $813/sf per Heddings, who seems to be following through on the idea of across-the-board repricing.
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1005769
Needs a kitchen, I don't like the layout, and the square footage looks more like 1400 than 1600. Still, for a building of this quality, it's been a while since we've seen that kind of pricing. No same-line comp, so the movement is hard to measure.

I saw the Astor Court apartment last year when it was still listed by Halstead. At the time they were asking $1.695m. I have to admit I was tempted, but in retrospect am very happy not to have bid on it. The biggest downside for the unit is that the most it will ever be is a large 2BR. Its layout is not conducive to carving out a 3rd BR and there is a lot of work to be done in the kitchen (luckily, not much demo will be required as it is mostly empty) and bathrooms. Not much can be done to open up the kitchen due to the placement of the fireplace and the need to accommodate chimneys for other apartments in the line. I might consider it again if it hits $1m.

Aptometrist - Here's a serious question, though it's slightly off-topic: If you would be happy to own this apartment today for $950K, why not bid $950K? The idea of waiting until the asking price hits a particular number seems odd to me. Why leave price discovery entirely up to the seller?

Besides, by the time the ask hits $1MM, there's a good chance you'll only be willing (or able) to pay $750K. That's basically what happened to us, and both numbers keep dropping.

very good point west81st

I'll play devils advocate here for a moment.....

"The biggest downside for the unit is that the most it will ever be is a large 2BR. Its layout is not conducive to carving out a 3rd BR and there is a lot of work to be done in the kitchen (luckily, not much demo will be required as it is mostly empty) and bathrooms. Not much can be done to open up the kitchen due to the placement of the fireplace and the need to accommodate chimneys for other apartments in the line. "

It sounds to me like he could live there if he had to make a decision, but in this market, would like to see if his $950k will get him just a bit more over the coming weeks/months/years.

Why pay less for something that is less than fully satisfactory when it may be possible to find something you really like while remaining in your budget.

Not to offend, because I don't want to, and because I completely respect your opinions, but your question is, in some small way, reminiscent of the "buy now or be priced out forever" train of thought.

To answer your question more directly...why leave price discovery up to the sellers? Because once you've signed that contract, you're committed. A seller can always reject a bid for any reason.

To explain a bit more...in a buyers market (as we have now) why not let the seller make a "pricing mistake"? Plenty of buyers did in a sellers market.

Walterh7: No offense taken. You're right - my question doesn't fit Aptometrist's situation very well, because of the expressed reservations about the apartment. As a general observation, I'm often surprised to see how reticent buyers are about offering the price where thay would be happy to buy. Instead, we tend to say, "I'll wait... maybe it will come down." The way I see it, the best way to make "it" come down is by bidding, not by waiting. Just my opinion. Others would say that making an offer - any offer - shows your hand and encourages the seller to dig in. Anyway, sorry for the detour. Back to comps and market movement...

W81: Do you have any information on this? Why did this go right from available to sold
without first being "in contract"? Any idea what it sold for? Thanks.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/315922-coop-300-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

because they never listed it as 'in contract.' simple as that. will be very interesting to see what it closed for--top top building and location, great apartment, estate, lots of price cuts, long time on the market.

It looks like Doug Heddings was sort of telling the truth--not quite 25% off comps, but definitely well below:

771 West End 5A:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377477-coop-771-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Classic 7 (they call it 7.5), and it appears to have a beautiful remodel although you never can tell from pictures.

7A is also on the market--without the gleaming 5A renovation
STREETEASY HISTORY
01/03/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by CBHK at $2,950,000
05/30/2008
Price decreased to $2,600,000

Comps:
12/09/2008 #12A $2,300,000 -11.5% (estate condition--complete gut job required)
07/11/2006 #3A $2,600,000 -1.9%

3A is the relevant comp: also with a gleaming renovation. So this is priced 12% below the peak comp from 2006.

Nice find... HR... pls don't let my wife see this one... she's gonna make me put in a bid... and I'll offer them 25% below what they're asking.... unless you can put in a bid 35% below... would ya do that for me? Can someone place a bid 50% below.. so they'll come running into my arms? Pls help me... I'm homeless :(

Well Hello walther7... :)

I'm guessing $3M for the 300 WEA apt...

3 million would be pretty shocking--those apartments went for close to 6 million at the peak. but could be. i'd say 3.3.

Continuing on 771 WEA Comps
"C" line a classic 5.
6C is marketed as a 1BR with 1200 for $899K "estate condition"
12C was marketed a 3BR, for $1.475 summer 2008

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/358717-coop-771-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/168660-coop-771-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Condition is a big factor as are views. 12C has river views.

anon,

thanks for the info, but given that neither of the units you mention actually sold we don't really have a comp here. unless i am missing something 12C never sold.

Thanks, Happyrenter. I've seen #7A. It's closer to the original floorplan, with the huge dining room intact. Good condition, fully modernized and restored, but the stuff they put in about ten years ago is starting to show a bit of age.

Susan Nierenberg is going to be ticked off about that #5A listing. Elliman took it from under her nose (771 is her home and her main income source), and that seller looks much more serious than #7A.

225 CPW, 2nd tier building, another price chop today. 4 apts over 2,000sft. 6 for sale total. It just seems like this is going to get much uglier before it gets better. Additionally, these apts have much further to travel before the start generating serious interest. could be ugly at the cab stand on a rainy day.
#1101 dropped 400k today
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/347702-coop-225-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

Question for Aptometrist and West 81. The Astor Court video was very enticing. The room sizes were very large and the 10 ft ceilings made it seem larger. But what god awful condition. I guess in some ways good because there is no bad renov to live with and/or redo. Now for the hard question. What would it cost to do the total gut renovation, ie central air/through wall units(I don't like window units), new electric, plumbing, redo floors, kitchen, bath, walls, maybe even windows for the um '1600' feet? Maybe 350 all told? I have no idea, and that is what really puts me off. Does anyone in the know know what I am talking about. And yes some smart alek(spelling?) will say 'well what quality?' Good question, but let's say equal to a new place that is on the west side now like 555 West 59th Street, or 200 West End Ave or 80 Riverside Blvd.

how do you know they have much further to travel before they start generating serious interest? 601 looks like the best priced large apartment on CPW by a big margin. it may still be too expensive, but i don't see how you can be so sure.

By the way, the toughest price competition for that new Heddings listing might be this one, a block and a half south: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348725-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Similar apartments in similar buildings, and both seem to mean business. The one at 755 has better exposure.

I don't know, just a guess. But 601 has been around a bit, before local economy and psychology took its latest punches. I think 601 has a goofy layout, owners didn't seem to consider resale when they did the combination. Railroad on CPW is not the norm bed-bed. I have been in several in this building, but not this unit, so wouldn't be fair to comment on condition. Call it 2700sft, don't think this dog hunts at $1,700per. At over $2/ft, I think maint is bit high. Maybe $1,250persft so $3,300,000 or so is my best guess. Seems like this particular segment is in peril considering state of local economy. The second tier, traditionally overpriced, 3mm-5mm market, where asks approach 2K per sft. Seems like UWS buyers will be flocking to sixes and 7's on RSD and WEA for same sqft at $800-$900 per.

patient, right, but this is a 2700+ square foot apartment on the southwest corner with incredible park frontage. the layout is a bit funky but it can be fixed pretty easily. i'm not saying i'd buy the apartment at this price, but i think it is well-priced relative to pretty much everything else on prime CPW with that kind of view.

west81st, good call on the classic seven competition. i'm waiting for a decent classic seven to go for under 2 million--and west end above 96th is probably the place where that will start. both of these look like very nice apartments but the location is not quite ideal and in this market that means something.

565 WEA, #16C: Same unit resale, just re-listed after failing to sell in the Fall.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
NEW LISTING #16C ......................... |. $2,100,000 2 beds 1,550 ft²
10/21/2008 .. #16C ......................... | . $2,150,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,550 ft²
02/15/2008 . #16C $2,350,000 +6.8% | . $2,200,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,550 ft²

The "Sold" notation on the middle listing is an error. It did not sell. The owner, a partner at Proskauer Rose, is looking at a $250K loss even at the new ask, and I doubt it fetches anything close to $2.1MM.

Of course, the loss at the asking price is much bigger than $250K with transaction costs. $250K is just the price movement. It looks as though they never even moved in.

Maybe there's an angle to this one that only an expert bankruptcy attorney would see. Is there some obscure tax benefit linked to paying absurd prices for mediocre Art Deco coops and flipping them at a huge loss?

Quite the evil streak there West81...

Do you dislike law firm partners, Proskauer or just apartment flippers?

dmeisterg: No - nothing against the firm or the legal profession as a whole, and while flipping is a nasty business, I doubt they bought with any intention of selling so soon. I honestly meant that there might be more here than meets the eye.

Here's my thinking. A typical 2009 sacrifice situation would be like this one at the Ardsley, which had a big price chop today: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/359375-coop-320-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york. The Streeteasy history shows that the owners bought in 2007 and undertook a major renovation. A quick Google search indicates that he's in asset securitization (Lehman MBS alum) and she's from luxury retail. No surprise that they need to bail out of their CPW dream apartment just when there's no market for it. The story sort of fits together.

The 565 WEA situation doesn't look like that. The owners may well be distressed; I'm just saying an accomplished bankruptcy lawyer doesn't fit the profile for a 2009 forced sale. But then, his wife doesn't fit the profile for a tattoo chick either.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/12/29/LV129008.DTL&hw=ANGEL+WINGS+TATTOO&sn=001&sc=1000

west81st,

what makes you think the ardsley people renovated? it sounds like they may have bought it already renovated. am i missing something?

HR - You're right... I mixed in a piece of another story. But you get the point.

i get your point. except that the example you gave kind of undercuts the point you are trying to make. he's in asset securitization at lehman brothers and she's from luxury retail. they are trying to unload their cpw dream house. and yet they are far from a distress sale, asking nearly 3 for an apartment they only paid 2.3 for. if anyone would be trying to dump an apartment at any price you'd think it would be a mid-level guy from lehman and his luxury retail wife.

i think that this huge, ridiculous bonus payout is going to delay the bear market bottom by a year. next year is going to be brutal and i would actually expect the government to start regulating wall street pay. but i expect that the fact that relatively big bonuses went out this year is going to keep the market from really going over the edge for the time being. i doubt it will impact the ultimate depth of the bear market, but i do think it will push back the bottom significantly.

HR - My point was that asking prices don't always tell the whole story. Just based on the comparison between price paid and price asked, you would think WEA was a distress sale and CPW wasn't. But a little Googling suggests that it might be the other way around.

309 West 86th "B" line. Rear facing 2BR/1.5BA ~1200 sq.ft. Maint. ~$12-1300

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
01/20/2009 . #8B $950,000 -4.5% | ↓ $995,000 Sold 2 beds 1.5 baths 1,200 ft²
06/04/2008 #11B $1,200,000 -3.9% | ↓ $1,249,000 Sold 2 beds 1.5 baths 1,200 ft²

The 21% price difference is striking enough, but check the condition of the two listings. Even if you like the built-ins, #11B was a mess of green carpet, with what appear to be cheap 80s cabinets and butcher block in the "updated" kitchen. #8B is mint. #11B does have the advantage of three extra floors of clearance looking north toward 87th Street. Hence the choice of camera angles in the #8C listing.

Sorry, that should be "in the #8B listing."

West 81st, and there's another 2br/1.5ba in that same bldg., 5A, in apparently good condition and similar size, with a current ask of 895K. That could easily sell for 800-830K and that would be an additional leg down. According to floor plan, the A and B 2br seem almost identical.

I've seen 5A at 309W86. It needs a complete redo. A mess of 1980's finishings including a hideous wall of mirrors in the living room. While 5A does face south over a wide street, that advantage is reduced by the light-blocking array of 15-story buildings on the south side of 86th and the noisy proximity of the 86th/WEA intersection which is the turning point and idling spot of the 86th st crosstown bus.

More chops in the classic six category:
885 West End 12C just cut to 1650

Recorded Sales
05/30/2007 #10C $1,800,000
06/29/2004 #12C $1,550,000

The listing talks about a renovation, and the pictures look very nice, but it isn't clear whether the redo took place before or after the 2004 sale.

One of my favorite buildings just crashed through 2005 prices.

110/118 Riverside Drive "E" line (very large six, open views but no river, maint. ~$1800):
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #12E .......................... |↓ $1,850,000 3 beds
05/03/2005 #11E $2,103,000...............|
07/14/2004 . #5E $1,495,000..............|
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/110-riverside-drive-manhattan
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=882915

#12E is modern and in good condition, but needs some updating (e.g. gotta nix the mirrored DR). Don't know the condition of the earlier sales. #5E may not be a real comp because elevation is a huge factor facing east.

west81st,

what's the original layout on that apartment? the apartment looks great except for the positioning of the bathrooms--neither is accessible through a hallway, and the master shares its bathroom with the second bedroom while the third bedroom gets its own. any idea if that's how it worked originally?

I don't know the "E" line very well. I think the current dining room was the maid's suite, and the third bedroom is an invention. The bathroom access isn't too bad if you use the third bedroom as a den/family room. At some point, that room should probably disappear; most of its floorspace could go to a big living/dining room; the rest becomes a small hallway leading to the bathroom and linen closet. The dining room can be a bedroom or office, and since it's probably a wet zone there might be other options too. A large family could divide the long second bedroom in half. Very flexible.

It's a situation where you might live in it for a while, then figure out what to change. If you begin by knocking out walls and built-ins, you might find out the hard way that they were actually useful.

hey, you're right, i like that option a lot. divide the second bedroom for kids, make a big living/dining, and then have an office thrown in. very interesting apartment.

800 WEA Apt. 10D just showed up as being in contract. That was quick! (On the market for only about 1 week.) Anyone have any intelligence as to contract price (the asking was $1.495), whether there were multiple bids, etc.? I saw that apartment at last week's open house, and it had a great layout (very nice classic 6) and didn't need any work -- would be very interested to know what it went for.

miette,

that apartment was priced to sell i am not surprised at all. it is a big, beautiful apartment in move-in condition in a nice building in a nice area for well under 1000 psf. smart sellers. this shows that the market is not completely dead: priced right, apartments sell, and if you sell now you will almost surely get a better price than you would in six months or a year. this apartment was priced to 2004--they got out in front of the declining market and got it done. i would not be surprised if it went for the asking price, it's a nice apartment.

Like I said previously, looks like a decent apartment in move-in condition on UWS with no huge negatives (completely dark, high mtce, unworkable layout, etc.) are closing around 900/sqft.

seller must be a regular reader of UD, this must bring a tear to Noah's eye. "get out in front, don't chase the market down". Nice work sellers.

I'm not sure if we've talked about this one--2004 price on a nice prewar 4.5:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/354809-coop-400-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

400 West End Ave 18C

StreetEasy History
10/02/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,675,000
11/07/2008 Price decreased to $1,565,000
01/05/2009 Price decreased to $1,495,000

Recorded Sales:
12/12/2006 #16C $1,597,000 +6.8%
03/10/2005 #16C $1,350,000 (unrenovated)
09/08/2004 #17C $1,550,000
06/09/2004 #9C $1,150,000 (lacks the open view of 16, 17 and 18)

I still think this one could be a tough sell, given that there are decent classic sixes available in the 1.5-1.6 range.

West End in the Upper 90s continues to sag. 755 WEA "B" line (front-facing classic six, better layout and exposure than the much-discussed "C" line). The striking thing about this progression is that #2B and #4B were wrecks, and #3B isn't.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
NEW LISTING #3B ......................... |. $1,375,000 2 beds 3 baths
10/17/2008 . #2B $1,450,000 -6.5% |↓ $1,550,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,700 ft²
02/21/2007 . #4B $1,500,000 ........ | . $1,500,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,600 ft²
01/11/2006 . #5B $1,460,000 ........ |
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/755-west-end-avenue-manhattan
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=990453

west81st,
isn't it interesting how much of a tumble the west 90s are taking? fundamentally the 90s just aren't the 70s, and now that there are more options out there the differences are showing more starkly in the prices out there.

one question: is it clear that the B line is superior to the C. the west end exposure is better but the layout bothers me a bit: the living room doubles as a hallway to the bedrooms. correct me if i am misinterpreting but it appears to me that the prices on the two lines have been pretty close over the years.

HR: Fair point about the layouts, and about walking through the living room. I prefer B to C because the LR and DR communicate directly, but you're right to call me out for stating opinion as fact.

check out the listings that just got put up for the sabrina conversion. great timing to sell low end classic sixes in the west 90s.

you mean "dumped"?

happyrenter said: "isn't it interesting how much of a tumble the west 90s are taking? fundamentally the 90s just aren't the 70s, and now that there are more options out there the differences are showing more starkly in the prices out there."

I think that's so much the case. In the bubble, people were happy to get anything roughly where they wanted to live. Now, all the more subtle gradations are coming out, and the stuff that isn't absolutely perfect, with no compromises, is really getting a well-justified haircut.

This is where I think people really let common sense fly out the window. They just swallowed bigger and bigger compromises for slimmer and slimmer discounts, and talked themselves into it being o.k. That's really the point where you wind up giving away a lot of your chances to realize upside - - you're putting yourself in a realm where to break even is an accomplishment.

Anotherguy: Exactly. It was clear this market had jumped the shark when unloved, unlovely Lincoln Towers passed $1K psf.

01/16/2009 #25K ... $860,000 -9.4% |↓ $949,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,229 ft²
06/16/2008 #29K $1,295,000 .......... | . $1,295,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,200 ft²

#29K was fixed up; #25K is a mess, but it's still a relief to see that complex safely back in six figures where it belongs.

Westie.. .remember when studios in Lincoln Towers sold for $50K.... hahahahahahhaha... not much longer now. I might pick up a $50K studio so I can get a parking spot :)

anotherguy... the great joys of deleveraging :)

302 West 86th Street "A" line. Front-facing Edwardian five. #11A was just reduced to $1.4MM.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #11A .......................... |↓ $1,400,000 2 beds
10/24/2007 #12A $1,850,000 +13.8% | . $1,625,000 2 beds 2 baths
02/17/2006 . #4A $1,425,000 -5.0% | . $1,500,000 2 beds 2 baths
09/20/2005 . #5A $1,625,000 .......... |
09/15/2004 . #2A $1,340,000 .......... |

The "+13.8%" next to #12A might be the most striking number. What were we thinking?

Same broker team for #11A and #12A; they're very good. Not sure about relative condition. I've seen #11A, and it was basically OK. The kitchen needed some work, and the built-ins were a bit French for my taste, but it's a nice apartment. The construction next door at 535 WEA probably isn't helping, and I suspect the kitchen wing now looks at the side of 535. In the long run, though, being twenty feet from a $15MM apartment should be a good thing, right?

473 West End Avenue "C" line. Northwest-facing classic six. Upper floors have river views from DR and MBR. #11C was just reduced $250K, to $1.95MM. #4C is not nearly as nice, and lacks the view. Expect a deep cut within days.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/473-west-end-avenue-manhattan
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1046716

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #11C .......................... |↓ $1,950,000 2 beds 1,700 ft²
CURRENT ....... #4C ........................... |↓ $1,999,000 2 beds
05/08/2006 #14C $2,400,000 -4.0% |↓ $2,500,000 Sold 2 beds 3 baths
07/29/2004 #12C $1,825,000 .......... |

322 West 79th West End Avenue "D" line. South-facing four. #12D slashed by $300K last week. #11D just responded with a $170K cut, restoring rough parity.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ... #12D ........................ |↓ $995,000 2 beds
CURRENT ... #11D ........................ |↓ $980,000 2 beds 1,100 ft²
03/14/2006 #6D $1,045,000 ...... | $1,045,000 2 beds 1.5 baths 1,100 ft²

#11D and #12D also belong in the "Neighbors" thread, but the drop from early 2006 pricing on a much lower floor qualifies this line for IYCDMMWC. All three apartments are renovated. #11D is probably the nicest.

81: Is that 322 WEA or something on 79th..I don't think there is a 322 w 79

west81st,

this to me indicates that the era of the $2 million six is over--aside from a few exceptional cases. short of central park west or one of the few top buildings on riverside with a river view added in 473 west end c line in movein condition is about as good a classic six in about as good a location as you are going to find. it seems that the bottom tier of classic sixes--small in the upper 90s or low hundreds--are able to attract bids around the 1-$1.2 million. mid-teir 1.4. high tier like this one, maybe 1.7. does that sound about right?

Patient09: Sorry, that should be 322 West 72nd. Copy/paste/typo error.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/322-west-72-street-manhattan

HR: There seem to be buyers willing and able to step in at those levels. I don't know whether there are enough of them to stabilize the market long term, considering the surge in supply.

I'm no economist, but it seems to me that the big danger for sellers (since there's still a lot of money in this town) is a deflationary mentality: that buyers hold back - despite finding an apartment they love at a price they can readily afford - just because they think that apartment or one just like it will be cheaper in three-six months.

ding ding ding,
west81st very good point. take me, for instance. there is an apartment right now that i would buy in a heartbeat. perfect location. 25% off peak comps. spacious, nice views, great building. but i'm not going to buy it because, after talking with the broker and learning that the price is not flexible, i just have no confidence that prices won't be significantly lower in six months.

Here's an update from 90 Riverside Drive, a building that has attracted a lot of interest from participants in this thread: The price is in for #16G, and as previously reported by one of our broker friends, it's a respectable result for both sides:

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
01/22/2009 #16G $3,500,000 +2.9% | . $3,400,000 Sold 3 beds 3 baths 2,400 ft²
09/08/2005 #8G $3,475,000 .......... |
01/10/2005 #6G $3,100,000 .......... |

Great apartment, fully renovated, in a great building, at a 2004-2005ish price. Kudos to Kalish for pricing it right and getting the deal done fast in an adverse market.

re: 90 RSD - agreed. And she had exactly one open house and had multiple offers from it. IMHO this wasa far superior apartment in a better building than either the new listing @ 333 WEA (have not seen that specific apartment but know the line) and the one on 85th @ WEA that has been disucssed - the combo unit is it 532 WEA?

Priced right, things sell. Priced wrong, things languish . . .

I think you mean 522 WEA, and I completely agree - there's no comparison. Tristan Harper knows he has a pricing problem, but I'm not sure he can fix it. It's not always the broker's fault.

yes - 522 WEA - that's the one

west81st,

very smart sellers. they got it done, got a decent price (given the differential in floors it looks like a 2004 price to me) and they got out. very nice apartment so i hope the buyers will be happy there, but personally i doubt it will work out well for them financially at that price. still, getting a great apartment at a price that erases five years of dramatic price appreciation is nothing to sneeze at.

Is 90 RSD a better building than 110 RSD? Curious, because there's a large 9 on the market at 110RSD at not a bad price compared to 90RSD.

10023: I don't think there's a nine-room plan at 110/118. #4B is on the market, claiming four BRs, but it's a classic seven. I love that building; 90 is great too. It really depends what line you're talking about. Both buildings have great apartments, good ones, and some that are pretty dark.

Maybe you meant 100 RSD? #3A looks like a great apartment, but I wouldn't put the building at the same level as 90 or 110/118.

HR: Don't worry too much about the buyers at 90 RSD #16G. They'll be fine.

800 WEA seems to be back on the market...

As predicted ~15 posts up, 473 WEA #4C has responded to #11C's price cut.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/367656-coop-473-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

I doubt the response was sufficient, and I'm sure Lippman recommended a bigger reduction.

that place is significantly overpriced. the cut on 11c puts it into sharp relief, but honestly, given what else is available it should be obvious to those sellers that this is not going to cut it.

More trouble in the classic six market. This is from 250 West 94th, a solid pre-war building with good amenities and great transportation access. #10H (a six) and three "C"-line fives are battling each other and the market. #10H just cut another $100K. Note that the low-floor 2008 comp was a total wreck. #10H needs kitchen reno, but it's a nice apartment (especially if you like a big foyer) with a mostly open view to the north, and a peek of the river from the MBR.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ... #10H .......................... |↓ $1,595,000 3 beds 1,850 ft²
07/21/2008 #4H $1,870,000 -1.3% | . $1,895,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,900 ft²
02/13/2007 #7H $1,790,000 ................ |

i assume the c line units get cut within the next week?