If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

119 West 71st Street #2A. Another six in trouble. Same-unit resale of 2008 comp. I'm not sure the owners ever moved in.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #2A .......................... |↓ $1,695,000 2 beds
09/09/2008 #2A $1,725,000 -1.4% | . $1,750,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths
03/23/2006 #2A $1,550,000 | . $1,550,000 2 beds 2 baths

I think this one has a long way to go. Low floor, no true master, and a market glutted with sixes.

when will sale at 90 riverside hit streeteasy?

HR: Probably.

Whathappened: At the same time as all the other backlogged sales from the past two weeks.

Here's an example of how comps can deceive. At 302 West 86th, #11C just match #11A's price cut. At first glance, another line seems to be deep in the red vs. a 2008 comp - especially since #11C is in excellent condition, with the powder room expanded to a full bath, whereas #10C needed updating and only had 1.5 baths.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #11C .......................... |↓ $1,375,000 2 beds
04/16/2008 #10C $1,512,500 -5.2% | ↓ $1,595,000 Sold 2 beds 1.5 baths 1,400 ft²
12/14/2005 . #2C $1,060,000 ......... |
07/14/2004 . #3C ... $895,000 ......... |

But check the floorplan of #10C: http://img.streeteasy.com/nyc/image/21/2587121.jpg
Compare it to #11C: http://www.corcoran.com/images/media/ListingFloorplans/1451746.1.gif

The extra 150-200 sq.ft. that #10C annexed from an adjacent apartment may make an awkward room, but they do add value.

320 West End just went into contract: very spacious candela 6 in a fantastic location, needs a ton of work, and low floor. it's an estate and i will be very interested to see what it closes for.

That one is in pretty horrible shape. The agent mentioned that the family had gotten "realistic". We'll see what that means.

Finally starting to get real on 111th street:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com:80/961736

600 West 111th 4C
STREETEASY HISTORY
03/31/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,500,000
06/20/2008
Price decreased to $1,250,000
02/05/2009
Price decreased to $1,000,000

Comps:
03/31/2008 #2-C $1,440,000 -3.7%

2C was in move-in condition; 4C is not, although from the pictures it doesn't look terrible. has anyone seen it? those two floors up are also pretty valuable.

this is also another neighborly competition situation as several other units in the line are also on the market:

SALES LISTINGS FOR THIS BUILDING
SAVE Active Listings (5)
$1,595,000
600 West 111th Street #12C 3 beds
Open House: Sun, Feb 08 (12:00 - 1:30)
↓ $1,250,000
600 West 111th Street #14C 3 beds
Open House: Sun, Feb 08 (12:30 - 2:00)
↓ $1,000,000
600 West 111th Street #4C 3 beds
Open House: Sun, Feb 08 (11:30 - 1:00)

Can you do the same with the following? I think it must be a combination.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/359747-coop-320-west-76th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

jialka: They combined 5E and 5F. The renovation is nothing special. At the top of the market, $1.75MM might have been possible, given the insanity that lifted combo apartments. Now? I'd say $850K + $350K = $1.2MM

have seen 4c and 14c in 600 w 111th

4c needs a fairly complete renovation. Kitchens and baths
14c is more presentable but has a postage stamp for a kitchen - interesting choice in a family apartment. It still needs updating of baths and such.
Last summer I offered $1 million for 4c when the asking was $1.25. The realtor indicated that it was grossly underpriced at 1.25 and he had offers well above the asking price. Here we are at $1million and given the current market 750k to 800k seems more reasonable given a potential 200k + in renovation

14c I made a similar offer when they had reduced the price to 1.25m, and received a similar response. She said she would present but not recommend the offer. Question of time before that situation corrects itself I suppose.

12c I have not seen. Apparently it is updated, but the price is ambitious. The problem with the C line is that you either have a decent 3rd bedroom + dark dining (4c) or a small 3rd bedroom and a windowed dining (12c) or a negligible kitchen with a nice dining room (12c).

Such is the state of compromise in the building.

6d sold fairly quickly once they got their price down to the 1.2x range. It showed the best of the ones I have seen so far in this building. Still really the tension between a 2br+ dining vs 3br and small dining was there. 7d is now on the market at a higher price, does not show quite as well and has made the 3rd bed at the expense of the dining room. May work for someone.

None of these is an improvement over what we currently have and unless the price gets more attractive, it doesn't make sense to move. Should I make 14c an offer of 800k anticipating 100-150k on improving kitchen and baths?

joedavis: I can tell you this, many on these type of boards type because they like to type. Others offer instructive, fair, reasonable analysis such as 81, HR (in spite of his communist leanings), kylewest and few others. It is sad what will come of many peoples finances, your lowball bid may turn out to be the sellers best friend. I personally know of a seller that would hit almost any bid, they havn't even received the lowball yet. I know another guy who told me 8 months ago that he would walk his price down 100k every 6 weeks till it sold. It just did 2 weeks ago. Don't think twice about putting the number that you think is correct on the bid sheet. Seller may thank you in a years time.

communist leanings? who would have thought a blog on manhattan real estate would be dominated by refugees from the john birch society.

Wasn't it last week that someone had a whole thread going about how the low end of the market wasn't dropping?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/320539-coop-170-west-74th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

StreetEasy History
07/22/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $565,000
08/05/2008 Price decreased to $545,000
09/17/2008 Price decreased to $499,000
10/21/2008 Price decreased to $475,000
11/25/2008 Price decreased to $440,000
01/12/2009 Price decreased to $425,000
02/09/2009 Price decreased to $399,000

Recorded Sales:
08/27/2008 #607 $500,000
08/15/2005 #807 $499,000
03/31/2005 #1207 $460,000
03/21/2005 #707 $460,000

12% below the 2005 comp for a nice, small one bedroom in a great area (albeit with a high maintenance).

HR: nice get, that might be worthy of its own chop chop record. Just a guess, 3/14/09 price decreased to $374,000. Isn't this diagonal to the back of the Beacon? not so great!

dude: it's asking 399k. you want a view of the reservoir? plus it's on the 9th floor.

More good news for Julia: 175 West 93rd Street "J" line. Rear-facing 1BR/1BA. Pre-war, good space.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
02/02/2009 #3J $489,510 -11.0% |↓ $550,000 Sold 1 bed 1 bath
06/17/2008 #2J $640,000 . -1.4% | . $649,000 1 bed 1 bath 800 ft²

Identical footprint, both renovated. #3J is a sponsor reno, so the finishes may be less refined.

25% decline on the low end--isn't this the segment of the market dropping the least?

made the offer on 14c 600 w 111th
Response:
THe sellers have chosen not to respond to your offer

what was the offer?

joedavis
What did you offer?

btw i am surprised you made an offer there--i thought you were looking for a 7. that is a 5 room apartment.

joedavis:
Did you view 12C as well? If you did, irrespective of price, which apt is nicer? why? thanks.

Hey, I just did the math and the 1br/1bt at 175 West 93rd "J" and if it's 750sqft, which is more or less what it looks like, it comes out at 650 per sq ft. Not bad. It'll be 550 soon.

Trouble brewing for the owners of 9CD @ 127 W 96th....

History....
03/13/2007 #9CD $1,295,000 $1,295,000 3 beds 2.5 baths 1,650 ft²

Current listings......
↓ $1,499,000 127 West 96th Street #9C 3 beds
↓ $1,279,000 127 West 96th Street #14CD 3 beds

Not entirely sure about condition, but they are fighting a losing battle against a property which is five floors higher. 9C is really a C-D combo with an identical floor plan to 14CD.

Walter, this post should be cross-referenced on w67th's "help! My neighbor is undercutting my price thread".

Happy ending...
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/29/realestate/29hunt.html?ref=realestate
...with an epilogue, after the reno was finally over:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/380949-coop-370-riverside-drive-manhattan-valley-new-york

At least they liked the broker enough to hire him for the resale.

west81st, i wonder if they are getting divorced. lawyer and psychologist are not exactly stereotypical economically-sensitive professions.

Could be a job issue. Mr. lawyer is now at biglaw after being inhouse at a bank...

I have actually seen the other unit at 370 Riverside that is listed. And the main problem with this line is that the units are very depressing - facing walls with peaks of light. I can understand saying no view (building across the street) but with a view of a wall 3 feet away for $1 million. In this market, that seen unreasonable.

patient + happy
I offered $850 for 14c
Yes it is not a 7, but if they had come close, the compromise would be something to consider given that we stay in the neighborhood.
Given the paradox of a postage stamp of a kitchen and no pantry storage, it is interesting that they think that this family oriented apt will fetch what they want. ........
I hope for their sake that their realtor is right that they have multiple offers that are close to and higher than their ask. This was he immediate response to my offer. At least she replied and indicated she will present it as required by NY Law
4c has not even responded. Major thumbs down for that realtor

Anybody saw this?
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/362995-coop-50-west-106th-street-manhattan-valley-new-york

joedavis: how bout 12C

joedavis,

nice aggressive bid. obviously it isn't that shocking that they rejected out of hand an offer 33% below their ask, but they may live to regret their decision.

westelle: that's a one bed disguised as a 2 bed, but cheap nonetheless!

thx patient and happy -- 12c i have not seen, but based on the pics and having seen 2c, 4c and 14c, my feeling is that it is grossly overpriced at the moment. 14c realtor was happy to point me to the price on 12c. lol

the problem with 12c is that the 3rd bedroom is really a large walk in closet....ahem. I suspect many people here may use my idea of a walk in closet as a bedroom. My apologies
The smallest bedroom in my current apt is 12*10, and based on our previous houses, we are programmed to thinking of it as inadequate...hence shudder at at 13*7 being defined as a bedroom.
So, 12c is really a 2br + office, and for that it is nice, but $1.6 million for that at 111th st is ambitious today
Yes, 610 w 110th has marketed many 2br's successfully at substantially higher price points and so has 545 w 110th, but they are quite a bit nicer than this building, and if you are not locked into pre-war 272 w 107 is a better choice at a lower price.

The sq ft game is another thing too. I keep being perplexed as to how many of these apts claim sq ft comparable to the one I am in, and every room is smaller and there is less wasted space in hallways. Weird.
One building that seems to be giving more honest sq ft estimates is 275 w 96th. Compare the rooms in their 1315 sq ft to 600 w 111th c line apts which claim to be 1600 sq ft
of course, I have not seen any first hand, so it could be that they have some other metric that is distorted -- i.e. room sizes are imaginary and the total sq ft are not.

No sq.ft.age... NO SOUP FOR YOU!

lostintransit, why are ALL the comps in that building D line are 2-bed?

Back to the "C" line at 473 West End Avenue: I figured another cut was coming on #4C. Expected it to take more than five days, though. Down another $75K, to $1.85MM:
http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=947129

When you get rid of the maid's room, is it still a classic six? Yes I see it is in quotes.

the cuts are coming fast and furious at 322 west 72nd street, 12D--this after these owners started out at a ridiculous price and screwed themselves during the last months of the bull market:

STREETEASY HISTORY
06/26/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,595,000
08/14/2008
Price decreased to $1,395,000
08/19/2008
Price decreased to $1,295,000
01/30/2009
Price decreased to $995,000
02/11/2009
Price decreased to $950,000

perhaps they got a nudge in the right direction by 11D:
STREETEASY HISTORY
10/15/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,150,000
02/04/2009
Price decreased to $980,000

given that 11D appears to be in superior condition by far, i think it is still the better priced apartment. but as we've talked about on here, given the serious downward movement in classic sixes this sort of four room apartment is a tough sell right now.

ps, we're now well below the lower floor comp from 2006:

03/14/2006 #6D $1,045,000

these are back facing apartments and those six floors of elevation make a big difference. let's use the price on 11, since we know there are no condition issues, for the comparison. i'd say given the difference in floors this is close to 15% off the 2006 price.

HR, got any info on what is going on with 5B @ 322 W 72? It looked like an estate (online that is, never saw it in person), and it was taken off the market, which surprised me. The price was completely aspirational to boot.

473 WEA #11C is now asking $1.8MM, although Elliman.com still shows $1.95MM. The broker says they have an offer and are negotiating. Presumably, the offer is below the new ask.

$1.8MM is a 2003-2004 price, at least 25% off peak.

Oh what a drop. Don't think the price was ever reasonable but it's getting there. Mtc is still too high IMO. 221 West 82nd St. #14C

01/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,767,000
01/22/2008 Price decreased to $1,682,000
02/25/2008 Price decreased to $1,595,000
03/04/2008 Price decreased to $1,495,000
03/31/2008 Price decreased to $1,425,000
04/24/2008 Price decreased to $1,375,000
05/13/2008 Price decreased to $1,325,000
09/02/2008 Price decreased to $1,295,000
10/08/2008 Price decreased to $1,239,500
10/14/2008 Price decreased to $1,195,000
02/03/2009 Price decreased to $995,000

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/940347
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164090-coop-221-west-82nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

ib,

you can't really say the maintenance 'is still too high.' the maintenance isn't going to change and there is nothing the sellers can do about it. the maintenance is a fixed variable. do you mean that the price is still too high given the high maintenance? or do you mean that the maintenance is too high to buy the apartment at any price?

The broker is dreaming with that "alternate plan". Nowhere for the second bath's plumbing to go, and it leaves the master BR with a tiny 2x2 closet. The place can only be a 1-bath with kitchen toilet.

The equivalent would be 1,150,000 with 1500 maint -or so. I would think the fact that this is a high floor sponsor in a good UWS location should help overcome any downside. Without seeing this one I would say its becoming reasonable compared to other similar classic 5's. This one should always price at least 150K below comps in order to account for higher maintenance.

higher interest rates notwithstanding..

spinnaker1: I've seen it. Complete mess, and NWT is spot-on about the alternate plan. I think a smaller change might work - with just a shower in the second bath rather than a tub. There's still no reason to do it at this price, because decent 2/2s have come down too.

Re. 473 WEA #11C: I received an e-mail from the broker retracting the previous message about the asking price being reduced to $1.8MM. $1.8MM might be the bid that's on the table.

270 WEA #11/12E deserves a special award for creative destruction of value:

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .. #11/12E........................ |↓ $1,999,000 3 beds 3 baths
03/07/2007 . #7E $1,450,000 -3.0% |↓ $1,495,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,400 ft²
01/11/2006 . #9E $1,710,000 ........ |
10/28/2005 #11E $5,300,000 ........ |
04/28/2005 . #3E $1,050,000 ........ |
03/02/2005 #10E $1,400,000 ........ |

As we've discussed elsewhere, the prior sale of #11E is muddled by the buyer's ownership of other units. #7E, however, is a perfectly valid comp. The footprint is exactly the same as duplex four floors up. Not sure about #9E - it may have included some space from a neighbor (BTW, #9E seems to have been combined later with #9W, and sold for over $5MM).

The unique genius of the #11/12E duplex was to combine two decent 5.5-room apartments into a six-room apartment that isn't particularly spacious. The key to this achievement? A staircase that essentially consumes a bedroom from each floor, plus long corridors that waste even more space.
Here's #7E:
http://www.corcoran.com/property/FloorPlan.aspx?Region=NYC&ListingID=873075
Here's the duplex:
http://media.bhsusa.com/floorplans/w904814.jpg

I'm not sure what this story tells us about market decline, since much of the trouble here is unique to this listing. If the cost of combining these apartments had been invested in renovating them separately, they would each have been worth at least $1.5MM at the top of the market - probably more - and well over $1MM apiece now. Instead, the combination is already below breakup value, even if you assume a 30% decline since the sale of #7E. And the price is actually even lower, because the seller is offering a two-year maintenance abatement, whatever that means.

the two year maintenance abatement is meant to distract potential buyers from the $5,700 per month maintenance one must pay for the privilege of living in this white elephant. something tells me it isn't going to work. i don't know how to rationally value this thing it is just such a disaster. the cost of buying it and returning it to two apartments (removing the stair, putting in a new kitchen on the lower floor, etc.) would be prohibitive. it would be very difficult to rationalize the layout of the duplex because the million-dollar kitchen sits in the area where the staircase should go. i think the only realistic option is to buy it and leave it as it is (perhaps rip out some of the absurd paneling), but when you factor in the maintenance and consider it a moderately-sized 3 bedroom apartment you really wouldn't pay more than $1 million for it. this is just a disaster.

The staircase has to go. I'm thinking maybe a ladder where the hall closets are? ;o)

ooh, creative thinking. i was thinking maybe a rope ladder hung down on the outside of the building.

I think this will sell for close to $2mn - I would not be surprised to see this move to contract in the next month, or less. And no I won't be buying it, nor do I have any special knowledge of anyone who is or may be interested. This one will go soon I think.

I think it's best for the seller of this one to stay away from rope for a little while...

liquidpaper,
care to make it interesting? i'll bet my future down-payment against yours that this doesn't sell for within 5% of $2 million.

i'd say a maintenance of $2500 would be normal if not slightly high for a decent classic six, which is basically what this apartment is. this maintenance is $3,000 per month higher than that. you think that this apartment would sell for between 2.7 and 3 million with a normal maintenance? i have a bridge you might be interested in...

Sure. That's done as long as there aren't any restrictions on which apartment you have to pay my downpayment on.

But I don't think that's what you meant, and I think this is just your way of saying you disagree with me. That's cool, we can watch it together. When I said "close to" I was thinking $1,750,000 or thereabouts. If you're willing to make the bet I win anywhere @ $1,750,000 or below maybe we can structure something. Not for a downpayment but maybe for a Shackburger, or order flow. I'm always in the market for more order flow.

how about a fireman's pole connecting the floors. i've always wanted to see an apartment with one...

you consider a 12.5% spread between bid and ask 'close'? i've bought and sold a lot things in my day and i've never heard that sort of spread dismissed as insignificant. so that would change the nature of the bet. i still doubt very much it will sell for $1.75 (which, factoring in renovations, would represent a greater than 50% loss for the sellers) but i prefer my bets to be closer to sure things so i'll let that one go.

what about a manually operated elevator? like a platform you stand on with a pulley system that hoists you up and down between the floors?

actually saw this apartment two prices ago. with that maintainance, the shocking outside hallway experience, the opening windows on the staircase, the kitchen that looks like a designer show room run amuck (never thought it was possible to have too many sub zeros but they managed in this place), the toilet bowl in the laundry room (which the broker suggested would be a perfect home office--not sure if that was because of the toilet or the washer/dryer), the lack of a living room, the panelling left over from the kitchen designer showroom, the master bedroom with more closet space than floor space...

well, i don't think i would take if for nothing.

I doubt the things you've bought & sold had the lack of liquidity of this apartment. I think a spread of 12.5% would be close in this case, but I guess we'll see. Anyway, no bet but I'll be here if you change your mind.

Azil: saw a firepole in a townhouse at an Open House NY many years ago--as I recall, it connected the dining room area to the MBR. They also had a waterfall/stream off to the side of the LR (covered in plexiglass) that flowed out to a koi pond. It was in the Village somewhere. What a place. It sounds corny, but it was amazing.

just want to throw this apartment into the mix. no comp available but this looks like it could be serious competition for the classic sixes and sevens--great location, renovation, views, and outdoor space to boot.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385264-coop-100-west-81st-street-upper-west-side-new-york

HR: Looks tiny on the inside.

I think 101 is the better building in this area. This building is the one above the pizza place I think.

P09: Agreed, but at least Uno has a steady revenue stream. The retail base at 101 looks a lot more vulnerable.

it doesn't look tiny to me--living dining is measuring in at 17x34. but i could be wrong.

This one is getting within range of the 2005 price for a much lower floor unit (presumably without what look to be fantastic views):

924 West End 111
STREETEASY HISTORY
06/20/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $3,199,000
09/09/2008
Price decreased to $2,999,000
10/14/2008
Price decreased to $2,979,000
11/11/2008
Price decreased to $2,850,000
01/06/2009
Price decreased to $2,799,000
02/18/2009
Price decreased to $2,499,000

Recorded Sale
05/16/2005 #61 $2,303,000

HR - re. 100 W81st: I guess you're right about the dimensions, but the bedrooms are small and the effective width of that LR/DR looks way under 17' in this picture: http://media.bhsusa.com/pictures///994452-2_d.jpg
With that central staircase, I doubt the real floorspace is over 1200 sq.ft. Could be wrong.

Re. 924 WEA: The folks selling sevens at 905 WEA are not going to like that price cut at the Clebourne one bit. "It's a coop" and "It needs a kitchen" only go so far.

Upper West End continues to take a beating.

re: 924 WEA

Who is responsible for photoshopping the exterior views on Corcoran's site these days? They look awful. Like one of those strange colorized prints of old New York.

219 West 81st Street (Avonova) #7E. 2 beds 2 baths 1,271 ft²

Purchased from the sponsor in June for $1.75MM: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/739997
Back on the market asking $1.575MM: http://www.halstead.com/detail.aspx?id=1688650

That's probably still too high. #10E finally went to contract last month, and although the published ask was $1.795MM, brokers were shopping it around for well under $1.4MM (and were motivated to move it by the prospect of a 4% selling commission).

West81st: Any idea on what's going on at the Sabrina? The "boutique" agency representing the building have a tendency to set off my scumbag detectors every time I get the urge to walk in the door and investigate (we have a history). For whatever reason I loved the B line 6's when I saw them last year. Now the Sabrina website is gone and I need a secret decoder ring to make heads or tails of the agency website. I thought if anyone would know where the conversion stands, you would be the one.

Spinnaker1: I don't have any real insight on Sabrina. The condo has been effective for nearly a year, so in that narrow sense, the conversion was successful. On the other hand, the sponsor still has a lot of inventory, and the insiders who tried to flip haven't enjoyed much success. The building isn't a great aesthetic triumph either, nor has the infrastructure aged gracefully. For what it's worth, when I looked at the building a year ago, I thought the "A" line had potential.

I saw the same flood of Sabrina listings two weeks ago as everyone else; no clue what it means. Might just be the sponsor saying, "OK, we're not fooling anybody; let's put it all out there and see what happens." The edge Sabrina had a year ago was price. But with the whole market compressing, it's getting hard to compete on price alone.

i would nuance your take on sabrina, west81st. i think they certainly can compete on price alone. it just means the prices will have to get a lot more compelling than they are now.

270 WEA #11/12E: I have a slightly different (and more bearish) perspective. What would you pay to rent it? I personally prefer our current apartment to it (a bit smaller and not as nice, but we have a huge outdoor space, and I like our area more). Our effective rent is just under $5K. Um, that's less than the maintenance here. So for me, I would not take this apartment for free. I'll allow that others who value the nice kitchen and living/dining layout might pay more than I would, but honestly, can anyone justify more than $7K in rent for this thing? I say no. That's only $1300 more than the maintenance. What is saving $15K/year worth to you in purchase price? $150K? $300K? Certainly nowhere near a million, let alone $2MM.

I don't know anything about the sellers' situation, but my prediction is that they take it off the market without selling.

201 West 89th Street (Chester Court) "A" line. Corner classic six, typical size. Bedrooms have mostly open views to the south; public spaces face a decent-looking high-rise across Amsterdam. Well-run coop with excellent amenities. Maintenance is quite low for F/S, especially since it includes electric.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
NEW LISTING #12A ......................... |↓ $1,850,000 2 beds 2 baths
07/24/2008 . #8A ......................... |↓ $2,650,000 Off-Market 3 beds 2 baths
07/12/2007 . #7A $2,125,000 -3.4% | $2,200,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths
10/07/2004 . #8A $1,200,000 .......... |
06/02/2004 . #4A $1,425,000 .......... |

The #12A renovation looks very nice, so condition isn't a problem. Note that the same agent who sold the peak comp has priced #12A 15% below his own 2007 sale on the seventh floor. Personally, I prefer the layout of #12A, though some folks would take the big kitchen and give up the separate office and laundry area. In any event, it seems that James Perez, historically one of the neighborhood's more aspirational pricers, might be changing his tactics. Or perhaps 15% off peak is the new aspirational.

newbuyer,

here's the problem with your theory: if it isn't worth it to you to pay nearly 6k/month in maintenance for this apartment, then why do you think it would be worth it to the seller? if they don't want or need this apartment any more, why in the world would they take it off the market and have to pay $70,000 per year for the privilege of owning and not living in it?

i'm not sure that you are correct about the rental value for the apartment--i live in the central village where rents are significantly higher than on the upper west side but down here you would pay a lot more than 7k for that place. even so i really do see your point--that maintenance just destroys the value of the apartment.

west81st,

i think that price still is pretty aspriational. i mean, 89th and amsterdam is not exactly the loveliest spot on the uws. if classic sixes on west end are getting pummeled--which they are--how are classic sixes on amsterdam above 86th street going to fare? not well i imagine.

Happyrenter: I tend to agree, although there are a few buildings between Broadway and Amsterdam north of 86th that get priced like the other side of Broadway: Astor Court, Chester Court and Belnord (rental) come to mind.

It's funny to compare #12A to #8A, another renovated "A" that failed to sell last year. (I thought the 3BR conversion felt cramped.) A year ago, aspirational pricing was 25% above comps. Now it's 15-20% below?

Happyrenter, I went through a search in December for a real 3-bedroom or 2-bedroom with a dining room that could be made into a legitimate 3rd bedroom. UES, UWS, midtown. There were tons of options around $5000-%5500, and quite a few under. We also insisted on outdoor space, I think if we dropped that requirement, the options would've increased exponentially. From everything i see, hear, and read here, the rental market has weakened further.

Now, to be fair, this has 3 *real" bedrooms and a large, very nice kitchen. However, the living and dining rooms together are not much larger than the living rooms in many of the places we saw. And no outdoor space. Putting my own preferences aside, I think the market will pay a premium for this apartment compared to mine, or the stuff we saw. But I just don't see that premium being more than $1000-$2000 at most. Thus my $7K number. Others that know that rental market can feel free to chime in.

I agree with you that the sellers would be crazy to pull the unit and continue paying the maintenance. But I think most sellers these days are crazy. I have a hard time imagining anyone paying a meaningful price for this, and I have an equally hard time imagining the sellers accepting the reality that their place really isn't worth very much. Thus my prediction.

On the sabrina -- the units are very large but the building is falling apart. The tenants association paid an engineer to evaluate the building and he said it needs about a 12 million dollar facelift. That is alotta assessments. Buyer beware.

Having been a renter in Sabrina for many years, I can speak to its pros and cons. Pros: lovely staff, some of the best. We still go by to visit them even though we haven't lived there for a few years. Semi-private elevators. Our new building doesn't have them, and I miss that. Generally, nice floorplans and pretty sunny views above the 7th floor.

Cons: The managing agency treated this once beautiful building like crap for 50 years. Yes, they polished all the marble in the lobby, but they did nothing to improve the plumbing and that is this building's fatal flaw. Our apt alone sustained flood damage FOUR times in 7 years. Tenanats did willy-nilly renovations on their interiors without consulting the managing agency some of which impacted every single tenant below them--things like removing toilets/tubs/butler sinks and not properly capping off the stacks therefore causing odors and some breaks in the line. Soem of the sewer smells were overwhelming. Big rat problems--a rat even ran through the lobby once, and going to the laundry room in the basement was always "exciting."

The rat issue can be eventually controlled, but I don't see how the plumbing can be upgraded without the owners paying a huge price. That, the weird shenanigans of the managing company (they rescinded the 1st black book one month after issuing it), and the aspirational pricing of the final black book offering combined to make us pass on their insider ofering and I'm grateful we did.

Interestingly, I just showed the 270 WEA #11/12E listing to a friend who would be much likelier to be the target buyer than I would. His loved the place, layout, finishes, everything. His view is that with a "normal" maintenance it's worth around asking price. He'd knock off $300K or so for the higher maintenance, and expect it to go for $1.7MM or so.

I think he's absolutely nuts, but it doesn't matter what I think as long they find just one true buyer like my friend. I guess I feel a lot less strongly about my prediction. We shall see.

yeah, your friend sounds a little nuts to me. he would only knock off 300k for a maintenance that is $36,000 more per year than normal? wouldn't the standard for that be more like 700k if not more?

He thinks it goes for $1.7MM or so . . . sounds a lot like my $1.75MM prediction to me . . . any takers on the bet yet? Remember we're talking about a Shackburger here . . . yum yum yum.

lostintransit: Thanks. That's great information, and matches the grapevine babble. I can't think of a recent or pending UWS condo conversion that seems to be working out well for anyone involved. There are so many extra risks in those buildings, I don't even know how you begin to price them.

liquidpaper: Put my mark on the under. I'll supply the shakes. I have some coupons for freebies from a school event.

West 81st - you're on. I have $1.75mn or over. You have everything else. Loser buys burgers, you supply the shakes.

liquid: Gutsiest move I ever saw. you are willing to spend 1.75mm just to have a burger and shake with 81. wow! I am sure she is lovely, but wow!

HR, P9, W81 & LP....LOL. good stuff

patient09 - the key to the whole bet is getting HR back involved at my level. I pony up $1.75mn to by this apartment and then he winds up on the hook for my 50% deposit on whatever's on sale today @ 998 5th or 740 Park Avenue.

So then I wind up long a great kitchen on the UWS and a palace on the UES and it only costs me like $17.75mn in total for two apartments with a combined price tag of +/- $35mn . . .

. . .I don't suppose you want to lend me the $17mn part of this equation do you? I'll even throw in the UWS kitchen for your trouble.

Re: Sabrina

Many thanks w81, Mel & lostintransit. My guess is the $12M facelift is a shot in the dark and the real cost only comes when you start peeling back the layers. One has to wonder at what cost these become viable. What a mess.

wtf? 270 WEA looks like a yacht. Bleck. Though a shackburger is tempting. YUM!!! I dislike the "Gold Coast" description. What is that??? I keep seeing it! It annoys me!

Apparently Shackburgers are perhaps the key to women's hearts on the uws, and they certainly work on me. If only life were really that simple . . . uwsmom you are welcome to come along if/when "The Feast of 270 West End Avenue" ever occurs

Shake Shack. Its easy now, first 10 days, you couldn't get in. Line was around the corner past Dovetail, now, who cares. LP, step up, take em to 81, best newcomer in the hood over the past year.

Ooh, sorry to be off topic but has anyone tried Dovetail? We tried to get in last sunday w/o reservations w/ no luck (recession my a$$). Is it good?

went in...took one look at the menu and left...very, very expensive. gotta love fish. don't

Back to demonstrating market movements with comps. Here's a little jigsaw puzzle, courtesy of our old friend 270 WEA:

Perhaps nyc10023 can correct me if I mess up the history or geometry. As I understand it, the "E" and "W" lines at 270 WEA (plus a chunk that is now public hallway) originally comprised the "N" line. In 2006, Martin and Andrew Farach-Colton bought #9E and #9W separately for a total of $3.6MM, then purchased the adjoining hallway from the coop. They sold the pieces of the original #9N - still unassembled - in 2007 for $5.15MM. See http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/270-west-end-avenue-manhattan

Halstead has a new listing for #10E and #10W, asking $3.695MM and touting the possibility of adding the hallway to restore the original layout.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385691-coop-270-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

In terms of market trends, there are two ways to look at this one. The ask is slightly higher than the price the Farach-Coltons paid for #9E and #9W, so from that standpoint, the new listing is flat vs. early 2006. On the other hand, by highlighting the opportunity to restore the original "N" layout, the new listing explicitly positions itself as a comp to the 2007 sale - with a small piece missing, admittedly. Viewed that way, the new listing already suggests a drop of around 25%. The difference is 29%; I'm allowing $200K for about 300 sq.ft. of otherwise-useless hallway, which even a tough coop board would probably welcome in times like these.