If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

west81st,

this is a rock-solid comp 25% off comps. i didn't realize that the earlier sale was uncombined but since it was this is rock solid. now, it may the the case that this is demonstrating some sort of convergence between large and small apartments. that's fine, but it still means that in large apartments this is showing a 25% decline.

that said, i'm not sure it will sell at this price. i don't think the combined apartment will be as nice as the combination at 50 riverside that sold for $3.6 a couple months ago. the 50 riverside unit had a lower maintenance and required less work to combine.

Sunday Suppa at Dovetail is arguably one of the best dinner deals in NYC. I've learned to make reservations or eat at the bar. Wine is expensive.

re 9N @ 270 WEA. That is no less than grand slam for the Farach-Colton's!! Caught the uptrend and dumped the property right at the tippy top. If only I could trade anything that well! The purchaser of the apartments can't be too happy today.

314 west 100th street #72, listed for $2.15 million a few weeks ago, sold for $1.875 million. discount of 15 percent off of CURRENT listing prices.

EEEE1, that price is about what those apartments were listed for a year ago when the building started listing apts. (2 similar ones that are slightly smaller came on then, 71 and 61 - this one seems a tiny bit larger). I saw #71 and #61 back a year ago when they were priced at about $2M and thought they were overpriced then (no doorman, no closets, but pretty nice building). After not selling for several months, they jacked the prices up a few hundred thousand and then dropped them back down. So, I guess my point is, $1.875 seems high to me now because the $2.15 was really a March 2008 price, not a February 2009 price.

walterh7: Not just good timing, but also smart arbitrage. The E and W didn't appreciate that much on their own. It was the prospect of combining them that took the property into a different - and much hotter - market. That market has now cooled; with so many ready-made trophy apartments available, why bother creating one? I suspect that whatever #10E and #10W sell for, it won't be much more than they would fetch separately.

And now back to comps:
470 West End Avenue "B" line. Corner classic six. Layout offers many options. #6B seems to have struck gold by dividing the corner bedroom into a pair of decent kids' rooms. #14B was just reduced $300K, to $1.9MM, after a month on the market. Unlike the lower-floor comps, it's in original condition - which may not be a bad thing in a beautiful pre-war building, but it does mean money. The high floor is obviously a plus. #4B went to contract this week. The cut on #14B might be related... or not.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #14B ........................... |↓ $1,900,000 2 beds
CONTRACT.... #4B ........................... |↓ $2,300,000 3 beds
10/17/2008 #10B $2,300,000 . -6.1% |↓ $2,450,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths
06/21/2006 . #6B $2,710,290 +18.1% | . $2,295,000 3 beds 2 baths
08/24/2004 . #5B $1,952,000 .......... |

By the way, #10B was one of the earliest IYCDMMWC examples, so it will always occupy a special place in my heart. I'm a fan of the building too. Maintenance on the upper floors is a little steep for a coop without a lot of amenities, but it's about average overall.

W81 (at the risk of thread drift) do you get alerts right from the agencies? I suspect so since you seem to be on top of price movements faster than StreetEasy (which is what I rely on). I'm wondering if that lag in updates is important enough to go through the hassel of establishing 'logins' at all the major agencies.

walterh7: Some of the broker sites make it very easy to check for updates (e.g. Elliman, BHS). Others, not so much. I might check the easy ones once a day. The others I just ignore and wait for StreetEasy to pick up the updates. I'm pretty OCD, but it's not as though we're day-trading apartments here. I just like to scoop Happyrenter.

I wonder if there's a Bloomberg page for UWS classic sixes. The way the market is moving, it might be useful.

west81st, you're scooping me like crazy. but i like it; means i don't have to do the legwork. 14B looks like a very nice apartment to me and the cut seems to imply a pretty low price for 4B don't you think?

HR: ... or perhaps a little friendly collusion to support the price of #4B by keeping #14B at $2.2MM until the contract came in for #4B. Not sure what BHS would gain, unless they're in the #4B deal on the buy side. How unethical would THAT be?

who knows. and just in case you thought there were enough 5s and 6s for sale at 600 west 111th:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/386060-coop-600-west-111th-street-morningside-heights-new-york

gimme a break. $1.7 for a 2/2 on 111th st? MEMO TO BROKERS/SELLERS: It's not 2007! Get real.

and no living room access... how unfortunate. there should be a discount for that.

seriously. 1 or 1.1 and then i'll at least look at it.

270 West End - you pretty much nailed the situation. I know 9E & W pretty well because when I was interested in buying the potential combo in '06 - thought it was overpriced then. 3.5m for an uncombined apartment back in early '06/late '05 was not exactly chump change when you consider the sum of the component apts to be around 3m, with 500k tacked on for the "combo" privilege. But I was wrong, because the apts went into contract quickly.

I was shocked when the uncombined apts came back on the market (with the hallway) for just a tad over 5m, and then went into contract so quickly. And this time I knew the buyers (not from googling).

10E/W are dreaming because 8E/W asked for around 5m and didn't get it last year. So 9E/W was truly a one-off.

I am a bear - that said this apartment is up for sale for more than a very recent comp on a much higher floor:
6E on sale for $995. Not too bad. decent layout but not stellar.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/345587-coop-245-west-104th-street-manhattan-valley-new-york

Looks like 14E sold for $890 pre-Lehman on 9/5.

Nice kitchen though.

Nice kitchen indeed, but where will your guests sit? At the counter?

As much as I like the Armstead, this looks like a tough listing. The "E" line is a challenging layout anyway, and this particular solution - expanding the kitchen - might be one of those "seemed like a good idea at the time" propositions.

And of course we won't know until it closes. This one has clearly been chasing the market down.

Westie, also remember not all of us come from watching a world full of classic 6, 7s and 8s. I am in a 1BR for now with no dining area, a wife and a new daughter and a living room that is smaller than in the listing. For me a listing like that is an improvement of a type. No, I still wouldn't go for it, but this kind of listing would have asked and received a lot more than $995 a short while ago and might go for less than 900 (less than $800?).

Plus I love the area. The 80's got too polished for my taste.

And of course we won't know until it closes. This one has clearly been chasing the market down.

Westie, also remember not all of us come from watching a world full of classic 6, 7s and 8s. I am in a 1BR for now with no dining area, a wife and a new daughter and a living room that is smaller than in the listing. For me a listing like that is an improvement of a type. No, I still wouldn't go for it, but this kind of listing would have asked and received a lot more than $995 a short while ago and might go for less than 900 (less than $800?).

Plus I love the area. The 80's got too polished for my taste.

nyc10023: Thanks very much for the additional history on 270 WEA.

One of the challenges in using comps to track market movement is distinguishing one-offs/outliers from trades that genuinely reflect the top of the market - or, more recently, a significant move to the downside. In this particular case, I think the ninth-floor flip was a genuine reflection of the times, though admittedly an extreme one. I also think the subsequent listings give a pretty good indication of how that market sector began to cool last year and then froze in recent months.

AvUWS, 14E in the Armstead (245 W 104) needed a gut reno and was only 1.5 baths.

avuws,

clearly this apartment is an improvement over many other apartmtents; i don't think that is particularly relevant. what's relevant is whether it is a good apartment relative to other apartments in a similar price range. this is what west81st is talking about. given that few small but decent classic sixes have fallen into the $1 million range--and that there is a huge supply of sixes languishing on the market--it just seems that the price of this thing has to decline a fair amount to become a compelling option.

Like I said, I am a bear. I believe we will see prices settle somewhere at '99-'01 pricing. At that time the market was scorching and vacancies were miniscule and incomes were high (anyone remember the words "dot.com boom"?). Yet it would still mean a drop of 40-60%, maybe more.

went to see the apt at 100w 81st
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385264-coop-100-west-81st-street-upper-west-side-new-york

great outdoor and common space, great light, but a somewhat weird layout (you enter through the kitchen) and very small bedrooms. Also, it is not a 3 bdroom - it's a 2 bedroom with a small library that they are using as a small 3rd bedroom for a baby. Also the building is somewhat unkempt and there is no doorman.

The broker told me it's 1700sq ft interior though it certainly doesn't feel like it (more like 1400 i'd guess, but no way a broker would mislead me, right?)

anyway, overall, i'd love to have that apt, though not at the ask price or remotely close to it. Any guess where something like this eventually trades at? I'd own it at $1.3 - 1.5m I think - so I'm not even within the biddable ball park

take away the terrace and it's 1.1 million...so how much is the terrace worth?

Revisiting 333 CPW #56. Just reduced another $520K
see http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=940500

Based on the current ask for #56, the decline since #36 went to contract in October 2007 is now 36%:
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #56 .......................... | ↓$2,975,000 4 beds 3 baths 2,700 ft²
02/13/2008 #36 $4,650,000 -5.1% | ↓$4,900,000 4 beds 3 baths

I think #36 was a nicer restoration; #56 is more of gut reno, and not a very graceful one. On the other hand, the two floors of elevation mean a lot more light from the west. (Probably more noise during the day too, since there's a playground on the school rooftop next door.)

470 West End Avenue 10F. Just reduced from $1.095MM to $999K after opening at $1.295MM.
See http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1066489
The new price is 10% below the peak same-line comp on a much lower floor, and 6.2% below a same-unit sale in 2006.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #10F .......................... | ↓$999,000 2 beds 1,200 ft²
07/31/2007 . #4F $1,110,000 ........ |
10/19/2006 #10F $1,065,000 -3.1% |↓ $1,099,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,200 ft²

I like the building but have never seen the "F" line. If the floorplan accurately reflects all renovations, the positioning of closets and the second toilet looks unfortunate. Also, the apartment is interior and despite the high floor only the MBR gets natural light. Of course, the prior sales presumably had the same drawbacks.

Has anyone seen 221 W.82 #14C ? Price was recently dropped to 995k after a long series of chops. Really interested in analysis by one of you mavens.

gaongaon: That listing has drawn a lot of attention, and a fair amount of derision. Here's an example: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4873-nice-drop-

Thanks, West81st. I'm new to the site, and tried searching the discussion board using the address, but that didn't seem to work. Interesting discussion. Great location, open views, 1400 sf pros. Cons as discussed are need for renovation (minimum kitchen and bath). And the maintenance of course. Not everyone requires two bathrooms. If we weren't about to go down another 46%, I'd think a bid of 600k would be appropriate. Someone opined in the earlier discussion that the lack of necessity of board approval is suspicious. Why?

West81st - I've seen 470 WEA # 10F. I also thought that the building was great, but you're right about the "F" line - it doesn't have two complete baths. Rather, it has one full bath (between the two bedrooms), a 0.5 bath in the master bedroom (shower only) and the second half behind the kitchen - a small toilet. Can't say much about the closet, but the apartment is definitely renovated. Other than the layout I thought it was very nice ;-)

760 west end has bid a not-so-fond farewell to the price on the prior sale from 2005.

14D
STREETEASY HISTORY
06/27/2005
Previous sale closed for $970,000
06/20/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,150,000
09/02/2008
Price decreased to $1,125,000
09/25/2008
Price decreased to $1,095,000
10/22/2008
Price decreased to $1,045,000
12/02/2008
Price decreased to $999,000
02/23/2009
Price decreased to $925,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/307255-coop-760-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
looks like a perfectly nice apartment but with the decimation of the classic six market in the west 90s i could see this one continuing to fall. and it only has one bathroom.

HR, shows you the seller was stupid for buying only to hold jsut over 2 months before tyring to sell.

I don't follow the UWS market closely, but this six at 800 WEA caught my attention because it went to contract so swiftly. What's your opinion on the opening price of $1,495 and where do you think it will close? #5D closed for $1,835M in Sept. 07... #15D closed for $1,345 in Nov. 2004.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/376785-coop-800-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

boss, i think you are reading the numbers wrong. they bought the apartment in june of 05 and put it on the market in june of 08--three years later.

HR, you are correct. I was reading below the line, not above. Thanks.

kas242: See the bottom of page 1 through top of page 2 in this thread.

878 WEA #3B. 2BR/1BA. Just reduced from $799K to $750K, 7.4% below the prior same-unit sale.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ....... #3B .......................... |↓ $750,000 2 beds 1,000 ft²
07/02/2008 #10B $875,000 .......... |↓ $875,000 Sold 2 beds 1 bath
03/12/2007 . #5B $812,000 -0.8% | . $819,000 Sold 2 beds 1 bath 1,000 ft²
02/14/2007 . #6B $810,000 -4.6% |↓ $849,000 2 beds 1 bath 1,000 ft²
01/09/2007 . #3B $810,000 -2.3% | . $829,000 2 beds 1 bath 1,000

2/1s are dropping quickly, as is upper West End. The combination is doubly adverse, especially on a low floor.

Is the same thing happening to 7's as to 6's? Seems like a particular kind of family needs a 7, market or no market?

There aren't a ton of 7's on the market right now...

...and almost no activity. 771 WEA, 755 WEA, 490 WEA, etc. are just sitting. 905 WEA has seen some action, but those won't close for months. At the high end, sevens on CPW are a vortex of Wall Street pain.

I know this isn't on UWS, but same idea for the UES. If this needs a 2 handle to sell, then the mess is for real, I might watch this one as an indicator for 7's. Havn't been inside, but it seems like a perfectly nice place, nice area, nice floor.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/369684-coop-863-park-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york

What is a 2 handle??

2 handle = $200,000. It's slang from the Chicago futures pit. How about this patient09, real estate gaps down.

Yes, a price in the $200,000 range would be quite a breakthrough. Make that $2,000,000 I think.

A "two handle" just means the first digit of the price is a two. The exact meaning is context-sensitive.

Correct West81. 2 hande is $2MM in this context. That's a gap down.

Patient09, do you really want to live across from Lenox Hill Hospital, ambulences and all? This is one of the main reasons why #12E at 863 Park dropped to $1,865M before entering contract.

Sorry 80sMan - I had forgotten that bit. Just trying to translate for the non-Druids. :o)

sorry, I have been out to dinner to for the last 4 hours...2 handle meant 2mm.

kas: no not even close, I havn't lived on the east side since 1991. It just seemed like a nice apt...that's all.

A wild thought: anybody following Ariel(s)?

Beholder: There has been little movement recently at Ariel. #7C at Ariel West took a huge loss, as noted above:
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
01/26/2009 #7C $1,200,000 -17.2% |↓ $1,450,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,320 ft²
01/10/2008 #7C $1,558,000 .......... |

That's just one data point. The last sponsor sales at Ariel are getting very stale as comps. Ariel East #29 and Ariel West #14B are resales that might be worth watching.

Elliman just reduced the little duplex at 340 West 86th by $96K, to $1,199,000:

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
NEW LISTING . #8/9D .......................... |↓ $1,199,000 3 beds 2 baths
CURRENT ........#11D .......................... |↓ ... $799,000 1 bed 660 ft²
12/21/2007 .. #3D $710,000 -2.1% |↓ ... $725,000 Sold 1 bed 1 baths 659 ft²
04/27/2005 .. #4D $610,000 ............ |

Condition is fine, but the apartment and the building both have serious issues. This could be the first legitimate, non-wreck 3BR/2BA in prime UWS to crack the $1MM mark.

AvUWS made an excellent point a few days ago: the sub-$1MM market is probably of direct interest to more people than the low-luxe and luxe markets. We've gotten so accustomed to $800K one-bedrooms and mediocre $2MM classic sixes that maybe a reality check is in order. In a 25%-down world, with underwriting standards returning to historic norms, an $800K apartment requires about $200K down, and close to $200K per year in reliable income. That's real money these days for an average family. The question is whether prices will get back to a level where that average family can afford an average family apartment.

Re: 340 W86th 8/9D. What happened to joedavis and his search? This falls nicely into his price range no? And it is a condo to boot.

Dear West81st, could you tell me which problems you have detected in the duplex at 340 W86th (the buliding and the apt)? I am looking for a 3 bedroom and I extended my search to the UWS.

Mimi - We went to an open house 3 weeks ago. A few problems we found:
The living space on the first floor is small. Really no room to entertain.
The spiral staircase is brutal! I would be ok with it but my wife totally nixed the apt because of this. It is a definite hazard for kids.
The elevator situation is a mess.
Part Time doorman.
Assesment which will raise the cc charges over two years.

That said, I would love it at 900K but b/c of what I listed above, my wife would never go for it.

west81st,

when was the last time an average family could afford an average family apartment in a nice area of manhattan? quite frankly, i doubt that has been the case at any time since world war II. the average family in the united states has a yearly income of around $50,000. for a family of four the median is probably somewhat higher, lets be generous and say $80,000. with a rough rule of thumb that you can spend 3x your annual income on a home, that would allow them to buy a $240,000 home. if an average family apartment for a family of four in a nice area of manhattan is, say 1500 square feet (not huge, certainly) that would mean price per square foot would have to decline to $160 for an average family to afford an average apartment.

manhattan is one of the most desirable places to live in the world. why would we expect an average family to be able to afford an average family apartment here? that's just unrealistic. prices are coming down and i think they will plummet, but manhattan is never going to be a place where average families can afford average family apartments.

mimi: I second everything Skeptical said about 340 W.86th, except I would call that spiral deathtrap a ladder, not a staircase.

happyrenter: You're right - sloppy writing on my part. I meant the family that makes $200K a year.

HR: early 70s, late 60s - average fam. could afford a bstone on UWS. Except that the UWS was ghetto-like.

Spiral staircase - ask why they built one, and not a proper staircase. IMO, that staircase can be replaced - should be no more than 20k (with filings and everything) if you don't go for a solid marble staircase.

Bid 800k, see what they say.

West 81st: A ladder is right. I told my wife if I had grown kids, I would tell them to go out the front door and walk up/down the main hallway staircases instead of the "ladder."

in 1969 median family income in the united states was approximately $9,000 per year. it is possible that there were a brownstone or two available for $27,000 at that time, but when you include the cost of maintaining and paying taxes on such a property there is just no way an average income could pay for an uws brownstone.

HR...An entire generation, myself included, grew up in Manhattan post World War II in the 1960s and 70s("tail end Boomer" myself) and all of us probably qualified as average. Almost all of us lived in rentals, rent controlled specifically although stabilization came in later, and those that didn't were in Mitchell Lama buildings. The exception was my best friend whose family bought a townhouse on west 13th street for I believe it was $26K. That house is now listed at $8MM, I know we are talking 45 years of inflation but I don't think the CPI has increased at anything like that rate. By the way at the time Manhattan was a much flatter demographic landscape, you had Park Avenue and its ilk (not that I knew anyone who lived there)and some areas of desperate poverty but for example I had friends who lived in the Fulton and Elliot projects in Chelsea and their families seemed to be as "average" as the rest of us (and they were, initally the projects were populated by working class families). In some ways the projects were nicer because they were almost new and most of us lived in unrenovated older buidlings.
My mother passed away in 2007 having lived in the same building for 70 years and never, never understanding that people would pay SO much to live there as there had been no significant upgrades to the building (in fact service was downgraded after "the war" according to legend). She used to look at me and say "who are all these young people who can afford these crazy prices?" All I could respond was that they certainly weren't neighborhood kids.....

nyc10023: Good point about the possibility of replacing the ladder - I mean staircase - especially in a condo. In general, I think 340 W.86th will drop more than the neighborhood in general because of the assessment issue and the glaring deficiencies in current services and facilities.

I get a better read on the market from buildings that don't have issues, for example:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1075942
50 RSD #12F was with Halstead last year at $1.35MM. It recently shifted to Elliman at $1.195, and now it's $1.125M. Not a dream home for those who dream of sweeping river views, but I think it's a decent 2BR in an excellent building, and it might drop to where that $200K-a-year family can afford it.

The late 60s/early 70s were golden days of opportunity. I remember touring well-preserved, park-block brownstones with my parents and their friends. Way too expensive at $35K. :o)

lizyank,
i don't disagree with you. manhattan used to have a lot of middle class folks. but as you point out, they mostly lived in rentals, and they mostly lived in areas that, while they may be prime now, were far from prime at the time. sure there are stories about the cheap townhouses and coops that were given away in 1970s because the maintenance was too high, that kind of thing. but i would venture to guess that you friend with the townhouse on 13th street was not average--that is, even if the family bought the house for 26k, they had to have sufficient income or wealth to maintain it and pay taxes on it. they were probably always richer than your other friends in rentals and public housing.

no doubt manhattan has gentrified and become more expensive than it once was.

Btw, what's up with spiral staircases? Not only are they totally inappropriate for families with children but I would caution anyone over 35 who is buying with a longer term vision against them (and make that anyone with any aged cat or dog). And that goes triple if (as many of these "duplexs" seem to be built) a trip to the bathroom in the middle of the night requires negotiating the minefield/staircase.

Returning to Trinityparent's question about 7s, Douglas Heddings claims to be applying the same 25%-below-peak haircut as with smaller apartments: http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1085855

It's a combo, not a classic seven, and I would hesitate to recommend the most expensive apartment in a building of three- and four-room units. Still, for this much well-finished space, facing south on a high floor in a great location, he's probably right that the price is significantly below peak.

Lizyank - what you've said dovetails nicely with anecdotes from other native New Yorkers I know, and what I've read over the years from magazine & newspaper archives. I would add that the people who bought townhouses were not necessarily loaded (taxes for the most part were very low compared to Westchester/LI) but had some kind of quixotic vision to restore/live in a townhouse.

And if you read newspaper accounts of the opening of the Amsterdam Houses, and the tenants that used to live there (solid working class), you'd almost cry at how happy they were to be moving from cold water tenements to hot and cold water highrises with elevators & reliable heat/electricity. For good or bad, the projects in NYC that predated the 60s racial issues were to some extent racially and economically segregated and had much different demographics from today. This meant that the public schools in "project" areas were quite good and full of strivers. For instance, Lloyd Blankfein grew up in some far Bk projects which are dangerous today, and he got a good enough public education to make it to Harvard. Not the case today.

Price collapse at 200 west end avenue? 11G just sold for $3.45 million. Had been listed for $3.95 million. 12G and 14G both sold pre crash for $3.95 million. Others in the G line were recently taken off the market -- meaning they couldn't be sold even at their new listing price of $3.5 million.

this suggests to me that the price decline at 200 west end avenue is at least 15% based on the 11G sale, and could actually be much higher because they can't sell other G lines at a price close to where 11G sold for (that contract might have been signed prior to the market collapse). Thoughts, anyone?

These folks really picked a great time to put their west end classic five on the market:

890 West End 16D
STREETEASY HISTORY
02/27/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,095,000

Recorded Sale:
06/25/2008 #11D $1,395,000

the opening price is 22% off the peak lower floor comp from june of last year, and it significantly undercuts 3D which is on the market for 1.195.

i dont know much about the gramont, but there's some movement:
215 west 98th 10D
STREETEASY HISTORY
02/27/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $2,250,000

recorded sale:
06/13/2008 #3D $2,400,000

very nice two bedroom/junior 5 in a great location now asking well under the 2006 sale of the same unit. even further under the same line peak comp on a much lower floor:

470 West End 10F
STREETEASY HISTORY
04/05/2006
Previously listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran for $1,295,000
10/19/2006
Previous sale closed for $1,065,000
12/22/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,295,000
01/08/2009
Price decreased to $1,095,000
02/27/2009
Price decreased to $999,000

07/31/2007 #4F $1,110,000
10/19/2006 #10F $1,065,000 -3.1%

I have always thought, even at the height of the bubble, that 200 West End was overreaching. 2m for a 2 bedroom! 3.5m for a small 4-bedroom. Fuggedaboutit. The views are terrible (Lincoln Towers mostly), finishes humdrum, low ceiling heights and central a/c-heat done on the cheap.

This one must hurt:

CURRENT LISTING
70 West 107th Street #3
12/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by CBHK at $1,275,000
01/02/2009 Price decreased to $1,150,000
01/28/2009 Price decreased to $1,050,000
02/23/2009 Price decreased to $975,000

PREVIOUS SALE
09/09/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,395,000
11/04/2008 Price decreased to $1,295,000
12/05/2008 Elliman listing sold
12/12/2008 Sale closed for $1,332,500

Initially closed on 3/15/2006 for $1,175,000.

The current owner is a financial corporation - can anyone explain why they would overpay in a declining market, then turn around and sell it for a big loss?

OnTheMove, I can't explain why they bought near the top, but it is easy to explain why they are selling. RE is going lower. Unforunately, most "people" aren't in a postion to sell their homes, like their stocks. Maybe they want to load up on GM while it is cheap,

I appended the equivalent of LOL to that, but it didn't print.

FSBO at the Alameda (255 West 84th). $150K below 2007 cost.
Hope the link works, and that they don't mind me posting it here (free advertising, I figure).
http://realestate.nytimes.com/sales/detail/253-NS90214294
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
NEW LISTING . #8B .......................... |↓ $1,495,000 3 beds 3 baths
05/25/2007 #8B $1,645,000 -3.0% | $1,695,000 2 beds 2 baths + maid's suite

Note that #8B is a unique layout, and doesn't match the rest of the "B" line. I think it lost a room to #8A, but that alteration predates the current owners.

You make the search a lot easier - as always, thanks.

This is a decent looking 4 room apartment. Discounted 300K from original list 3 months ago and 6% below 2006 sale. Currently priced at 832/ft. Same line 6 floors below sold for 1,110,000 mid 2007. Aggressively moving in the right direction.

THEN
04/05/2006 Previously listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran for $1,295,000
10/19/2006 Previous sale closed for $1,065,000

NOW
12/22/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,295,000
01/08/2009 Price decreased to $1,095,000
02/27/2009 Price decreased to $999,000

(Bowing at the honor of being mentioned by West81st).

Interesting to see what some think the UWS was like in the good old days. It was still one of Manhattan's "good" neighborhoods in the 60's and 70's. But that was on a block-by-block basis, some good, some bad. The "good" wasn't continuous like it was on much of the UES. And lots of well-to-do, and some wealthy, people lived there.

NY was still a great city at the time. Perhaps in a way greater than it is today as there was no other to really compete with "Gotham" as the capital of the world. This was even so in its decline to the mid-70's. But things have certainly changed. Cousins told me how they bought their apartments in one of Westy's favorite buildings (90th and RSD), riverviews, for 18k in the late 60s and it was considered expensive then because "it was a whole years salary for someone who made a very good salary". Today that would be akin to buying such an apartment for 500,000.

It is arguable that "middle class" in Manahattan is still a household income of 250 - 500k. But for how long? And how many people will choose to have a spouse work under the new tax regime? If Hubby (or wife) make 300-400k at the law firm/bank, does the spouse want to keep the job at the consulting firm/ad agency/non-profit for 150k when the marginal income is taxed at 60%? Cheaper to stay with the kids and fire the nanny. And how many of those jobs are kept?

Most people will be fine. Most bought lower, some much lower. Some will keep their jobs at the high salaries. The pricing will be made by those who have to move on or can't keep their jobs. And perhaps, like West81 said, at the margin a couple (or one earner) making 200-250 will be able to afford an average family apartment on the fringe of "prime".

P.S. West81st, let me know if an A-line in the Alameda ever goes on sale.

Av: An 8-room just went into contract at Alameda in mid-2s. Top floor, and I hear there have been facade & roof problems. To put this in perspective, an 8-room there (estate condition) went into contract very fast over 3 (I forget the exact number) in mid-2005.

AvUWS: Great post. The dual-income dilemma you describe will affect the choices of many families, especially if one spouse has already lost that "marginal" second job or seen a significant drop in income. Having a choice about working might be a nice problem to have in some ways, but it can also be wrenching. The people who will get hurt most are the phased-out nannies and housekeepers, but that's a topic for a different message board.

Re. Alameda "A" units, it depends on what you mean by "on sale". Even after what happened with #12A, that line is still a long way from the $1MM price point. I do have a bit of intel to share if you're interested in chatting off-line. Just put my screen name in front of gmail.com.

The loss won't just be to the nannies and housekeepers. The city, state and feds will lose all those juicey marginal taxes.

I never expected that line to drop below 1mm. If it did it would mean a whole load of nastiness for the rest of NY and the US. Those were classic "classic 7"s. Not monstrosities for the rich but certainly designed for the upper middle class of days gone by.

Totally agree with you, AvUWS - I was generalizing by saying UWS was ghettoish. We live in a different world today - East Asia was still recovering from WWII/Korean War & SE Asia still had to finish off the Commie scare and Indochina issues. London was coming out from years of postwar rationing & the Blitz. NYC's role as the capital of the world back then also reflected the might and the prestige of the United States. You will laugh at this but the idiomatic expression for USD in most Chinese dialects is "American gold" - those days are long gone.

Frankly I miss the UWS of the 70's and 80's. I was why I loved living around 90th in the '90s. It still hadn't gentrified to the same degree, there were dry cleaners, shoe repair shops, and non-blockbuster video stores on B'way. By the time I moved up to to about 100th those were all gone, replaced by banks, Duane-Reades and cell phone stores. Though oddly enough there wasn't a Starbucks between 93rd and Barnes & Noble. Now I love the 100's on Bway because they are still a little bit gritty.

Then again I love that I would trust a 10 year old today to take the subways at night on their own and that people have lost the memory of times when you couldn't and didn't venture into Central Park after dark. Things change.

Back to topic: 255 West End Ave, 2A - now on market for 599. I haven't seen it, but assume it's in poor condition.
7A closed at 835k in Dec. '06; 6A closed at 759k Sept. '04 - and that's as far back as ACRIS goes.

Just musing on 255 WEA, 2A. If I were bolder, I'd bid 400k and ask about board flexibility re: sublets, pied-a-terre use, and live-in help usage. I know a lot of folks who like having their parents visit but don't have room to put them up and find hotels super-expensive & inconvenient. How much could I charge as a furnished suite short-term rental/share? And maybe have my parents stay over there and stick an aupair there as well. Hmm...

wait--your au pair is going to live there, your parents are going to stay there, AND you're going to be renting it out? that apartment is going to get mighty cosy.

Yeah, regular old fleabag hotel - think of it this way: aupair stays in one bedroom FT, parents visit 2x annually (both sets) for 1 week apiece, rent it out to friends' visiting families/acquaintances some of the time (with the aupair in one bedroom - would I get good use out of it? Aupair is going to be working most of the day at our place.

Back to the Trinityparent's question about what's happening with classic sevens. 290 West End #3C was just reduced to $2.395MM: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372302-coop-290-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Low floor facing a busy stretch of West End, and comps in the building are scarce, but the price does seem to represent a new level. Corcoran has #12C at $3.495MM, and while that's high, it doesn't seem crazy. I hope nyc10023 and others will opine. My radar gets pretty weak below 79th Street.

2 bedrooms on a low floor facing west end are a problem. but there's something else that bothers me about all the front-facing apartments in this buidling: the schwaab house. the entire front-facing view from this apartment is of a solid, ugly, unadorned, postwar brick wall. even across the avenue it just makes for an unpleasant, closed-in feeling.

that said, while i would not want to live in this apartment it may represent a very nice value for the right person. i really love the stretch of west end from 74-76th. it's close enough to the 73rd street subway that you are really right on an express line, and it is within a three minute walk of fairway and citarella, a 10 minute walk from lincoln center, and 20-25 minute walk from carnegie hall. pretty fantastic

"I know a lot of folks who like having their parents visit but don't have room to put them up and find hotels super-expensive & inconvenient. How much could I charge as a furnished suite short-term rental/share? And maybe have my parents stay over there and stick an aupair there as well. Hmm..."

Interesting thought nyc10023 and one I have been considering. This is definitely cheaper than buying a bigger apartment. If you find the right place that is flexible enough to do this let me know. Hey, between the two of us, maybe we could keep the place full.

I love that stretch of west end also. It competes with 277 west end 6c and there is a recent sale at 277 west end apt 12mc at 2.2. The low floor is the problem for us not so much b/c of view but b/c of noise. Don't you think 12c at 3.495 is super pricey now. Talking about competition in the same building.

2004 (or lower) pricing on a 4.5/2/1.5 at 440 West End:
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ......... #7E .......................... | . $949,000 2 beds 1,150 ft²
CURRENT ....... #10E .......................... |↓ $899,000 2 beds
09/06/2006 #7E $990,000 -0.5% | . $995,000 2 beds 1.5 baths 1,150 ft²
04/04/2005 #7E $915,000 ............ |

#10E, which is nicely renovated, was just reduced $96K. It debuted at $1.295MM in September. Half-bath off the kitchen will be a dealbreaker for a lot of people. #7E arrived two weeks ago, in worse condition and priced $41K below its previous sale. Corcoran may already have pulled the listing. It seems to be inaccessible.

The market is in free fall. About a month ago, I said that average apartments in an average doorman in my hood (60s & 70s) were going into contract at around 900/sqft. Now 290 WE comes along (low floor/Schwab house). Even a few months ago, if they'd priced at 2.3 to start with, I'd say they had a decent chance of closing for above 2. With no good news in sight for the economy, I'm thinking that they will close around 1.9m (I think that brings us to 850/sqft).

I don't know the square footage for 290WE, C-line though. So I take back the 900 to 850 drop. I will say that a few months ago, it would have closed for over 2m. Now, it's going to close for under 2m.

Do you think CPW is somewhat immune to the free fall? Or will retain its value to some degree?

290 WEA C line square footage here:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/375657-coop-290-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

2300 square feet according to this listing.