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If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper West Side Edition

Started by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
Discussion about
As discussed on the original "IFYCDMMWC" thread, please post comp sets on the relevant neighborhood-specific thread. This discussion is for UPPER WEST SIDE properties.
Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

west81st,

correct me if i am wrong, but that 771 west end number is pretty shocking, right? it is in the 90s, so not ultra-prime UWS, but i think this classifies as a mid-tier, rather than a bottom-tier, classic six. it's significantly bigger, brighter, and better-laid-out than, say, 755 west end 5C (or 3B for that matter). aside from the somewhat truncated length of the living room i'd say it is an almost perfectly-laid-out six--side-by-side living/dining, a large maidsroom that really can work as a bedroom with its own bath, a bedroom hallway, with no rooms entered by walking through another room, a second bath that is accessible from a hallway so guests don't need to walk through a bedroom, and even the possibility of converting the dining room to a 4th bedroom.

if this apartment sells for not much more than $1 million, watch out.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

HR: The shocking thing might be that it's no longer shocking.

Two months ago, #9B was on the market for $2.15MM. It has more light than #5B, a window in the MBR facing the river and through-wall A/C. On the inside, #5B might be a nicer apartment. #9B was reduced once when #5B came on the market, then pulled altogether. $2.15MM was an absurd price (from the same broker who has 251 W89 #3F, as it happens), but it's a useful reminder of sell-side psychology that prevailed until recently. As Q1 ends, though, the new price on #5B looks like just another milestone on the way to wherever we're going, and that dead listing for #9B is a relic of a bygone era.

Equally interesting, as other posters have noted, is what the movement in sixes might mean for larger apartments. A $645K gap between #5B and #5A (the classic seven next door) seems unsustainable, although #5A already looks decently priced by the standards of, say, two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the heirs to #7A seem to be in their own world, still asking $2.6MM after ten months. Reading between the lines of the broker's comments on that one, however, the price may not be as sticky as it looks if anyone has the courage to make a bid.

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Response by EEEE1
over 16 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Dec 2006

200 west end avenue. Many units coming on sale now. Some owned by the same owner.

Any thoughts on how far the markdown should be from where the owner purchased them two years ago?

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

w81st,
the courage to make a bid of 1.6? i mean, how long do these people want to keep an empty, depreciating apartment? i agree that 5B/5A looks out of wack now, it makes me wonder if the people who got what looked like a steal at 755 are starting to regret it.

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

EEE1: I love 200 WEA (I don't own there, am not a broker). Views are not great until you are at least 23rd floor and up, facing north, west & east. People paid outlandishly high prices for the apts. The sponsor is fine as they closed on most of the units, they have maybe 10(?) left based on ACRIS and pshark.com. I think you would be extremely foolish to pay more than 1000/sqft for a unit there given rental prices and market conditions.

I'm interested in the BC combo (high floor) and waiting to see if any open up at distressed prices.

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Response by chilly
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5
Member since: Dec 2008

Does anyone know anything about the building at 112 West 72nd Street? I am considering buying an apt there.

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Response by buyer09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 32
Member since: Jan 2009

15 West 81st Street, Apt 6/7 C just went into contract. Last listing price was $4.5 million. I think this apartment was discussed somewhere recently but can't remember where. I assume it's in need of renovation (possibly even an estate sale), and I would guess it went to contract at 3.9 at the lowest. This is a natural duplex as far as I can tell, and the only possible comp would be 8C, but it's not clear whether 8C is a duplex with 9. Does anyone know more about this?

10/24/2006 #8C $4,500,000

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

250 West 94th "C" line. Large five. DR can be converted or divided (as in #6C and #15C). Maint. ~$1500.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .... #8C .......................... |↓ $1,295,000 2 beds 1,650 ft²
CONTRACT .. #15C .......................... |↓ $1,549,000 3 beds 1,650 ft²
03/13/2009 #10C .......................... |↓ $1,595,000 Off-Market 2 beds 2 baths 1,600 ft²
07/07/2008 . #6C $2,040,000 -0.5% | . $2,050,000 Sold 3 beds 2 baths 1,600 ft²

#8C just dropped to $1.295MM, down from an initial ask of $1.495MM in December. It appears to be in similar condition to #15C, an heirless estate that went to contract in February asking $1.549MM; the selling price was substantially lower, though I don't know the exact number. #6C is a tricky comp because it was renovated, but #15C wasn't really that bad. Mostly, it needed a new kitchen and some freshening. I think #8C is being suqeezed from two directions: one is the contract price on #15C, which could be a shocker when it prints; the other is #10H, the big, price-chopping six that we have discussed previously. #10H is down to $1.495MM, and each reduction pushes the "C" line down too. The same forces that are squeezing #8C may have pushed #10C off the market altogether. Perhaps it will reappear with a more adept agent.

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

8C is also being squeezed by apartments like 5B at 771 that west81st pointed us to yesterday--a perfectly acceptable classic six asking around the same price. 8C is indeed quite large and well-laid-out for a five room apartment, but it's still a five room apartment and lacks the flexibility of a six. it's also on broadway at 94th street, which i would say is not quite as desirable as 771, located at 97th and west end.

i should add that the 771 unit may also put additional pressure on 10H at 250 west 94th.

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Response by EEEE1
over 16 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Dec 2006

255 W. 84th STreet 12A sold for $2.3mm.

There is a sale listed for $3.3 million in 6/2005, with no apartment number. However, that buyer filed a document with the city in 2006 and listed address as 11A.

This suggests that the "A" line has fallen from $3.3 million in 2005 to $2.3 million today, or some 35%. Since 2005 was arguably 25% to 35% below peak price, that suggests current price of "A" line is 45% to 50% below peak.

Can anyone confirm that it was 11A which sold for $3.3 milliion in 2005?

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

225 West 83rd (Bromley) #23BD: same unit resale.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
03/23/2009 #23BD $1,750,000 ........ |
04/23/2008 #23BD $2,050,000 ........ |

With no public listings, it's hard to know whether these were arm's length transactions. The seller has executed several transactions in the building, and he's an entrepreneur, so there may be more to the story than just a poorly-timed purchase.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

Revisiting the "C" line at 473 WEA. Classic six; high floors glimpse the river from DR and BRs. #4C just cut again. The brokers have mentioned near-deals on both apartments. Either that was hot air, or they may have fallen through.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT .. #11C .......................... |↓ $1,950,000 2 beds 1,700 ft²
CURRENT .... #4C .......................... |↓ $1,725,000 2 beds
05/08/2006 #14C $2,400,000 -4.0% |↓ $2,500,000 Sold 2 beds 3 baths
07/29/2004 #12C $1,825,000 ...... |

#14C was a sponsor reno - nothing special - but with nice open views that do set it and #11C apart from #4C. I've seen both #11C and #4C; I'd say the current price difference makes some sense, but they both might need to come down farther.

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

beautiful 4.5 room home at the ardsley keeps coming down:
320 CPW 6DE
STREETEASY HISTORY
03/07/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,830,000.
10/26/2008
Corcoran Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $1,425,000.
11/07/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,399,000.
03/19/2009
Delisted temporarily by Brown Harris Stevens. Last priced at $1,275,000.
04/01/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,195,000.

recorded sales
08/04/2008 #4DE $1,685,000 -0.6%

28% below the same line comp from earlier this year.

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Response by aptometrist
over 16 years ago
Posts: 88
Member since: Jul 2008

HR, I just saw the Ardsley listing in one of my daily SE emails. Who would have thought that a decent-sized 2BR on CPW would go to $1.2m. I also noticed a new listing at 145 West 86th St
1,400 ft� 2 beds 2 baths listed at $1.2m

The last sale in the D line of 145 West 86th, #11D sold in Jan 2007 for 1.4m judging from the Corcoran web site (didn't bother to check ACRIS). What makes the listing notable is that it could easily become a respectable open-plan 3BR. It seems to fit joedavis' original criteria for a 3BR/2BA on the UWS for under $1.25m, although his criteria have moved with the times and he's now looking for a classic 7 at that price point :-)

There are some differences in condition - 11D didn't need a kitchen when it sold and didn't advertise that new baths were needed, but I thought it was still worth posting.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

Looks as though the Normandy may join the list of "name" buildings returning to relative affordability:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1099573

Don't know the line or exact floor, but the maintenance ($2527 for ~1350 sq.ft.) suggests this apartment would have opened at $2MM a year ago.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

apt:
I don't find the Ardsley listing cheap at all. 1,100 f2, limited windows, no view of the park(why be on CPW if you can't see the park), asking almost $1,100 per f2. Seems rich. Might as well be on Columbus, call it $935,000.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

P09: Kitchen looks like a Pullman too. Still, that #4DE comp is pretty compelling. Different layout, and a very smart renovation, but looks like the same footprint on a lower floor. #6DE isn't cheap in any absolute sense, but it's a whole lot cheaper than it would have been a year ago.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

267 West 71st #1R. Same-unit resale.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
03/23/2009 #1R $995,000 -28.9% |↓ $1,399,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,600 ft²
12/20/2005 #1R/1F $1,365,000 -
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/181700-coop-267-west-71st-street-lincoln-square-new-york
Originally listed at $1.65MM last February, just before the seller closed on a new place at Ariel East. No mortgage on that one in ACRIS, so she's probably OK.

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Response by dmf13
over 16 years ago
Posts: 150
Member since: Feb 2008

101 at 225 CPW is no longer available. Think it sold or was it pulled off the market? It doesn't list it was in contract.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

91 Central Park West #14A. Estate nine. LR, Library and corner MBR face park. BRs face south with side park/skyline views (and direct views of Robert DeNiro in the shower, possibly).
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
03/31/2009 #14A $5,650,000 -23.6% |↓ $7,400,000 4 beds 5.5 baths
06/23/2008 . #8A $7,250,000 +0.0% | $7,250,000 Sold 3 beds 4 baths
06/20/2005 . #8A $4,875,000 ......... |

Not sure what to make of this one. Photos indicate condition isn't too bad (see http://www.lesliegarfield.com/index.cfm?action=Properties&subaction=detail&AptID=446423&aptpub=9505). The 14th floor should obviously commands a huge premium over the eighth.

Back story on this one shows ex-Lehman MD "trading down" from the Langham. Looks like their old place is available for rent, at the bargain price of $29K/month. http://www.corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&listingid=1534610

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

you don't know what to make of a 14th floor, nine room, southeast-corner, park-facing central park west apartment on the best stretch of the avenue selling for under $6 million and 23.6% off the final asking price? unless the place is a complete dump, this is major movement.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

... or a brooch... or a pterodactyl. But yes, "major movement" seems right.

Actually, the movement is even more dramatic than it looks. Compare the floorplan of #8A (http://img.streeteasy.com/nyc/image/33/2439933.jpg) with #14A (http://www.brokersnyc.com/Pictures/aptpics/f446423_9505_.jpg)

If your reaction is anything short of OMFG, you're missing something important.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

HR: I don't want to read too much into a single data point, and I'm not sure what 2003 pricing at 91 CPW (a very nice but relatively obscure coop) will mean for bankable addresses like 88 and 101, let alone for the landmark CPW name-brands. THere may even be extenuating circumstances that make this sale a unique situation.

Still, I think a prediction has been vindicated, and a possible turning point reached. For close to a year, you and I and a few others have been saying that estate sales would set the market for mid-luxe and low-luxe UWS pre-war product, and that there would be some shocking downward lurches as implausible lowball bids were accepted by heirs eager to cash out and stop paying maintenance.

Well, there it is, in black and white. This is the kind of sale that informed buyers like P09, LP, Dmf13, Dwell, Bfgross, nyc10023, YJBO, Kas242, Newbuyer99, w67th et.al. will wave under brokers' noses when they sniff at "insulting, lowball" offers. Game on.

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

So, what's an extra bedroom worth these days? Didn't the increment from three to four used to be something like $1M once?

Please drop me a brooch clue. I've got John Cleese in my head, but can't quite catch it.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

NWT: It's from "Airplane"... but that's not important right now.

Hard to put a value on the extra south-facing bedroom (plus en-suite bath). They're in an awkward spot, off the dining room. If I had the money, I might have my architect look into moving the DR and turning the southwest portion of the apartment into a residential wing. In this market, the incremental value of the square footage might be down to the $500K range. That's just a guess.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

I must be a bit slow today, but I am not getting the same warm and fuzzy you guys are getting. I never went to see it because I thought it was ridiculous at 7.4mm. Even so, at a sales price of 5.6mm or so,it is still $2,240 or so per F2. Unless I completely mismeasured. Is that price point supposed to get me excited? Around 1,600 I would be say OMFG. I think we had a similar discussion about the recent in contract El Dorado listing. Then again, maybe for now, it is only the challenged ones that are facing 1,100-1,400 ranges..i.e..225 cpw, low floor beresford and Kenilworth. We'll have to wait a bit to see those results.

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

ROFL now I remember. Have to look that guy up.

Speaking of awkward, I hope Garfield didn't pay much to have that floorplan patched together. Dimensions don't jibe, mysterious absence of door to living room, etc.

Anyway, I'd keep it as-is. Good for keeping guests out of the way. Love that genteel-old-people, not trying too hard look, too, with the refrigerator in the pantry

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

Unfortunately, I already own. Luckily, no need to move now or next 20 years.

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

BTW, the A-line at 91 CPW is an 8-room, at some point 14A bought a bedroom from the C-line (no park views). That is why the bedroom is off the dining room.

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

patient09, it's early days yet to see that kind of apartment get back down to the level you want to see. Traditionally it'd be the kind of place the ~$1M partner, say, would have. The people who'd live *under* that 25% rule.

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

Agree with the 1m partner. The 1m partners who have that kind of place now generally graduated in the late 70s. Though female partners will always try to stay in the city w/ or w/o kids.

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Response by YJBO
over 16 years ago
Posts: 88
Member since: Dec 2008

14A at 91 CPW does seem like significant movement....but I also agree with P09 that an apt. in a good (not great) building with an odd floor plan (bedroom off the DR) that needs a renovation that sells for over $2,000/sq. ft. does not indicate that the luxury market has reset at a much lower level than the past few months.

If this apt. would have sold for $3,000/sq. ft. at the top of the market, it just sold for 25% off of that price, far less of a drop than many here are predicting and hoping for.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

P09: We're just celebrating the end of the beginning. When YOU buy, it will mark the beginning of the end.

Nobody knows where the ride will take us; 91 CPW is just, as you would say, "one print on the way down." The OMFG wasn't for the price, which is still a lot of lira for an estate sale in a second-tier coop. It was strictly my reaction to the difference between the footprints, and what that difference means in terms of market movement. Wherever we're going, we seem to be getting there rather rapidly.

By the way, I think the footprint is closer to 2800 than 2500, and most brokers would round it to 3000.

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

91 CPW, 14A (or A + 1br) is huge as far as a solid 2009 comp on lower CPW goes. Hey, if it were a new condo, they'd probably say it was 3500 sqft.

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

YJBO,
How exactly do you arrive at a 25% decline? This apartment has an added bedroom and six additional floors (which makes a big difference for all those south-facing rooms) over a unit that sold for 22% more. I'd add 15% for the higher floor, and at least 500k for the additional bedroom, which gets you to $8.8 million. You can take off off 800k for the renovation, although, quite frankly, with these trophy apartments I don't think people were paying much for a renovation at the peak, since almost everything that changed hands was getting renovated. This is a decline of at least 30%, using my conservative numbers, but my sense is that this is more like 35-40% off.

How does that 'not indicate that the luxury market has reset at a much lower level'?

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

10023: Thanks. Whatever the right sqaure footage may be, it's a honking big apartment. Here's a coop that was listed as 3100, and I think they're very similar in overall footprint: http://img.streeteasy.com/nyc/image/24/2479524.jpg (LP will recognize it).

161 West 86th #8A has one extra bedroom - not a very big one - fewer bathrooms and less storage. Some rooms are bigger, some are smaller, but overall they match up pretty evenly. Is it really 3100? I doubt it.

The fundamental problem is that broker square footage is all over the place, so PPSF is a tricky metric to apply evenly unless you verify the square footage and/or adjust it. Maybe we need two different metrics to achieve clarity: I would say #14A+ sold for $1800 PBSF (per broker sq.ft.) and $2000 PRSF (per real sq.ft.).

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

West81st, right, that's what bothers me about this whole $psf thing. We all want to quantify, but can't with this. If one of your numbers has no meaning, you have to discard it. When there isn't even a standard for calculating condo-unit size (face of window vs. face of wall, blah blah,) where are you?

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

Aaah that old chestnut. Someday that apartment will come back on the market, and they're going to list it at the right price . . . and then someone else will buy it before I can get my ducks in a row to bid on it no doubt.
But seriously, west81 or any other lurkers, is anyone surprised 161 w 86th is still off the market? It's been several months now, and it's not like the old tenant came back to life and started living there again . . .

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Response by YJBO
over 16 years ago
Posts: 88
Member since: Dec 2008

HR...I was using P09's estimate of $2,240 per sq. ft. and just speculating that this apt. may have sold for $3,000 per sq ft at the peak.

your #'s may well be more accurate, i.e., we may well be down over 35% from the peak

I didn't mean to suggest that the market isn't way down (in fact, I'm closing on an apt. next week--obviously at a price well beneath the peak).....my intention was to question whether the market has reset at a much lower level "than the past few months"

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

LP: You have mail.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

Oh you pretty thing you. I don't actually know how to check my work email here, but will be looking forward to it 1st thing Monday. You go girl! Thanks again.

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Response by w67thstreet
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

YJBO... so you're the one buying on the way down... boy you must have the ballz of an elephant.

And yes, the market has reset at a much lower rate than when you went into contract... I'm not gonna sugar coat it for you, you lost $300K on anything above $2MM, $500K on anything above $3MM and $100K in the $1MM range....

The funny thing is you ain't seen nothing yet... wait till this time next year when all my I-banking friends (that actually r employed) get their second pat on the back instead of a bonus... it'll sink into them then... I still think people wish/hope this is a one year blip....

And, why the hell r you on SE if you just bought... I promised myself when I pull the trigger.. I'd get off this site.... too many bears lurking about... :)

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Response by nshipley
over 16 years ago
Posts: 125
Member since: Jun 2007

161 w 86 (which I loved) is rented for 2 years...

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

161 w 86th. Isn't this the one I went to the open house a year ago. Total garbage. possible future restricted views because of the church. Big thread 5 months ago about. Man, that place was nasty. If it is the one I'm thinking of, I was digging the assistant broker, an eastern european or russian girl, very sexy.

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Response by nshipley
over 16 years ago
Posts: 125
Member since: Jun 2007

easy, tiger.

The church next door may get landmarked status, thus squelching the development...

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

nice, lol, thanks, been a bit since a cutie called me tiger!

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Response by newbuyer99
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008

West 81st - thanks for including me in the list of people who will be making insulting low-ball offers one of these days. Exactly the plan, maybe starting this fall, maybe in 2010, depending on a host of things.

I did have the OMFG reaction to the 91CPW comp, not because I think $2000+ prsf is a great deal, but (a) because of the decline compared to a lower-floor, smaller comp, i.e. I agree with HR's math and logic and (b) because of the difference between final ask and closing price.

Can someone enlighten me regarding the 1m partner? Are you talking partners at law firms? And are you saying someone making $1MM/year can afford a $5-8MM place? I am probably just confused

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

I was thinking whatever $1M was in 1990 dollars, before the boom. Not wildly wealthy, but more so than most. The people on CPW or Fifth or Park (or those discreet side-street buildings on park blocks) who didn't know what "trophy apartment" meant. Who'd think you'd be out of your mind to plow multiples of your income into just one of your houses.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

nshipley: there was also another apartment in 161 west 86th in the same line that WAS specifically for rent at the same time that 8A was for sale. I just want to clarify, or make sure that you're clear, that in fact it is the much discussed, and sometimes maligned 8A that has in fact been rented for two years. Thanks in advance, Lp.

patient09: yes, it was that apartment. and no she wasn't the assistant. In fact she was the senior broker on the team of three working on the listing. maybe SHE would have called you tiger too if you hadn't asked her for two sugars in your coffee (laughing at the thought of it). Kirstin something or other is her name.

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Response by nshipley
over 16 years ago
Posts: 125
Member since: Jun 2007

It was indeed 8A that has been both maligned and rented.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

I think the name Ojdanic is Serbo-Croatian. Now can we get back to comps?

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

nshipley: interesting & many thanks.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

West81, Nan and HR: Not my choice, but, ugh, ugh,ugh...If I decided to go over WEA or RSD, what is the single best apt on the market today. Lots of light, views, large(over 2,400 f2) 3+ beds, 2.5+ baths, great condition, 74th-84th? price is irrelevant. Just the unit itself. thanks in advance. We might do a bunch of shopping today, beautiful day for a walkabout.

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Response by nshipley
over 16 years ago
Posts: 125
Member since: Jun 2007

I know you're not a townhouse person, but why not explore a little? This just came on the market (ignore the price). It's a great block, mint condition, and has all of the things you're looking for in a grand apartment, except the maintenance and the obsequious doorman. Who knows, maybe you'll fall in love...
http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc/sales/0016312

There's really nothing else currently on the market that speaks to your needs (either too small or not renovated). 470 WEA looks nice, but the views aren't great. I do like 160 RSD, but it's probably no more than 2100 sf (if that). and it's 88 street, which I think is slumming in your book.

There is an apartment that I know of that is NOT on the market, but it's on CPW in a building you like. please e-mail me for more info. It's a long story.

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

Nan, and it has central AC! Funny that's not mentioned in the ad, or is that taken for granted in a townhouse?

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

p09: Would you consider up another 2 blocks to 86th? If even maybe, go look at 535 WEA - if only so I can know someone who's taken a look.

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Response by bfgross
over 16 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007

W81:
Thanks for the shout out. And sorry I missed this from yesterday.
I think the sale at 91 CPW is a significant print on the way down. I happen to have friends who have a park view high floor apt in the building, and its a very very solid coop building. Reminds me a lot of 239 CPW, no bold-faced names, just a classically beautiful prewar in an exceptional location with all the trimmings. Just no name brand.
I would also say this footprint is closer to 3,000 sq ft than P09's numbers, so by my calculations it sold for 1800 a foot. We can argue about that.
But lets just agree on something:
Here is perhaps the single most desirable apartment in the building, a fourteenth floor, southeast corner nine in at least decent condition for 5.6 million.
How in the world is that not significant movement?
Heck. a seventh floor eight in the White House (262 CPW) sold for 6.9 million nine months ago. Yes that one was nicely renovated but still. This is a better building, more space on arguably the best floor in a slightly more desirable stretch of the avenue.
It's MAJOR movement.
It's inconceivable to me that this apartment's value didn't start with an 8 a year ago.
And my prediction remains: in a year from now, even these apratments will drop from the high teens psf to the low teens psf. 1200 psf will be a ceiling for all but the absolute most special apartments in the most special buildings.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

bfg, 81, yjb:
Hey before you guys throw me off the bus, let me clarify a touch. As I stated in previous post, "or so", never measured, just eyeballed. The floor plan is a bit murky on my screen. But, I calculate a cute little rectangle 59' * 46' = 2,714 F2. That still comes to $2,063 per F2. I am simply stating that to me, thats not cheap or good value. Yes it represents good movement, I will stipulate that. If we are all to be correct that an adjustment process is starting to let some air out of the bubble, then we need to see trades like this on the way.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

P09: Best fit currently on the market:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/347701-coop-33-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

LP: The 535 sales office is (was?) in the Belnord. Nifty piece of cross-marketing.

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Response by bfgross
over 16 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007

09:
I think we are in total agreement.
The 91 CWP sale represents good movement.
And yet it is neither cheap nor represents good value.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

lp: I may in fact do that some day. When it is closer to closings. (It hasn't started yet has it?). Just seems odd that this building is commanding, what $2,300-3,300 per F2, in the middle of, of ,of $800-$1,200 F2 land. Seems wierd. I would rather have CPW cheaper.
I did however, 2 weeks ago pay a visit to the Harrison, they still have some inventory to travel. Closings start in June, maybe mid summer might be a time to bid on some of the inventory for those that like the area.

81: That 33 RSD looks pretty schweet, might need to get wifey to go take a look.

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

p09? don't see what's odd about it - park views, prime CPW. Will always be more pricey than other apts.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

nyc10023: my comment to lp was in regard to 535 WEA

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Response by nyc10023
over 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

Don't see the value of 535WE at all. Uninspiring layouts, exterior. Love 33RSD, was about to suggest that. Or you can make an offer on 14B and 14A (not on the market) and do some work combining. Can't remember if you're into that.

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

33 RSD is gorgeous, wow.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

i love the 535 layouts on plan actually. and if the finishes come out the way the website makes it look I think it will be a special building. As for premium to CPW - I think that's a fair point, and I don't think it's (at all) well priced, but they seem to have signed a fair number of contracts, particularly the full floor units. I agree p09 that for that ppsf one ought to find some spectacular apartments on CPW also but the inventory just isn't really there now, and I suspect that with sales volumes so low, and the trend so clearly down, people who might have sold but can afford not to (a la rich folk who are still rich) will simply sit out this time in the market.

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Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

535 wea feels like the brompton, lucida, harrison and the various buildings on rsb rolled into one. at current levels, this is ridiculously overpriced based on what could be bought and rehab'd but in much better locations. just as the other buildings mentioned are not located in A+++ prime territory, neither is 535 WEA. 86 & wea is not the 70's on wea or the drop dead view buildings on rsd.

when will people learn?

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

One issue with 33 RSD for some high-end buyers might be the lack of depth in the public rooms. I understand what the architect was going for, and it works on its own terms; but the fact is that thirteen feet just isn't a grand space. On the positive side, every part of those rooms is close to the windows, and the enfillade geometry ties the apartment together in a way you might not expect in a combination.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

"enfilade", left Sun Tzu and on to Napolean, very nice!

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

And the mirrored window jambs, though so '70s, really work.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

OK, enough luxe. There's a six-figure market too, and we're neglecting it here.

317 West 87th #3B. Same-unit resale of a junior four. Down 10% from a pre-peak price.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
03/24/2009 #3B $640,000 -7.1% |↓ $689,000 Sold 1 bed 1 bath 800 ft²
02/17/2006 #3B $706,000 +4.6% | . $675,000 1 bed 1 bath 800 ft²

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

Majestic, #7A, 3 rooms facing the park, 2,500 F2 in contract.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/359323-coop-115-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

No windows in the second bedroom? That has to be a drawing eror, right?

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Response by walterh7
over 16 years ago
Posts: 383
Member since: Dec 2006

300 West End Ave. 4A just went into contract (listed at $4.1mm. The listing was 21% below where 5A closed last year. Looks like a combo was intended for 5AB but didn't work out. That's an expensive mistake. Goofy purchase to begin with.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/300-west-end-avenue-manhattan

Active Listings (3)
↓ $10,950,000 300 West End Avenue #5AB 6 beds
↓ $5,475,000 300 West End Avenue #5A 4 beds
↓ $5,475,000 300 West End Avenue #5B 4 beds 3,800 ft²

Listings in Contract (1)
↓ $4,100,000 300 West End Avenue #4A 4 beds

Sales history
10/23/2006 #5B $5,562,500 -
10/23/2006 #5A $5,187,500 -8.2% $5,650,000 3 beds 3.5 baths 3,600 ft²

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

Must be, as that bedroom was about all that was left alone in reconfiguring the apt.

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Response by walterh7
over 16 years ago
Posts: 383
Member since: Dec 2006

And FWIW, 91 CPW 14A is a damn fine apartment that I'd call 2800 sq ft so we're right around $2,000 per. That is still a big chunk of change and indicates just how far afield from reality the market had gone.

The location is truly ideal to me. If I had the money, that is where I'd choose to live (+/- 3 or 4 blocks)

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

walt: yep, agree, damn shame though. wallet not quite that thick!..my bid is a bit lower

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

Walter, 5AB had already been combined, for many years, when Ms. Disney bought it in 2006 from Harry Belafonte. The story is that after the landlord wouldn't rent to him in the '60s, he bought the building and later sold it off as a co-op.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

I thought the Belfontes kept the apartments separate and used one as the residence, the other for entertaining/visitors. Their son did the same thing with adjacent apartments at 425 WEA, which he has been trying to sell for over a year.

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

Pretty sure I saw a picture of the enfilade (!) across the WEA end, but my memory's shot. One side was definitely more office-y and other more bedrooms, so suspect you're right.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

esplanade?

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

No, that's across the street, with a e, I think.

Enfilade is three or more rooms in sequence, with the doors between them on axis, ideally with a window or fireplace or mirror on the same axis at one or both ends.

Word of the week.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

Oh!, sorry for my comments yesterday, I always referred to from a military strategy point of view.

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

the apartments at 300 west end were what i would call partially combined--the enfilade across the front of the apartment is real, but they left two kitchens and turned half of one apartment into extensive office and storage space.

but this is old news; 4A went into contract months ago.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

nwt: LOL - I thot you were saying that you saw the (insert word) here across WEA - yes, enfilade is the word of the week - west81 used it in a thread over the weekend. Once upon a time when I thot I had found the apartment I was destined to live in I was very excited to think about the rooms in enfilade we were going to create . . . someday!

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Response by NWT
over 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008

Yeah, me too, when the one-bedroom next door was available for $150K, but at the time thought it was too pricey....

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Response by w67thstreet
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Near and dear to my broken heart :)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/376410-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372883-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york

11E just chopped $200K, Mr. Reed... you are way behind curve on your pricing.

Same broker... yeah.. .but $700K difference for 140 sf? what is that other broker thinking... OH SH_T!... my bad it's the same BROKER?!?!?!!? Does the left nut talk to the right one?

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Response by jasonkyle
over 16 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

it looks like 17H is 3 exposures (north, south and west- the best three imo) and the other cheaper unit is 1.5 exposures because of tilted window but mostly faces east. the pricey one looks over lincoln center so it has protected views no?
it's still a huge difference but in this case i kind of get it.

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Response by w67thstreet
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

jasonkyle... the "value" compression is happening in NYC RE. When I was growing up, people didn't want a CPW8 due to the carrying charges, most chose 6, some co-ops actually price CC higher the higher the floor you are on :(

In this market... 3 exp. vs. 1 will have very little premium........ just sit and watch young jedi.

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Response by happyrenter
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

hey west81st are you around? i just emailed you to ask for some advice.

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Response by AnonMan2002
over 16 years ago
Posts: 165
Member since: Feb 2009

407PAS still believe his little bedroom window will help

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Response by w67thstreet
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

hey all just thought i'd get me SE fix.

jasonkyle... my answer didnt' sit well with me, so let me try that again.

Okay how about I buy you the recently chopped GM unit and take the extra $700K and buy you a 1 bdrm unit in the Toulaine or stretch a bit and get you a 2bdrm in lincoln towers to keep your cat? I know you have to walk like a whole block to your second manhattan pad, but NYC is all about sacrifices.

So how about it, $700K for a 140 sf and some extra views worth it to you? :)

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

A grand CPW trophy crosses into the red:
101 CPW #12E. Reduced $1.75MM today, the first movement in a year.

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ..... #12E ............................. |↓ $10,750,000 4 beds 5.5 baths
11/29/2006 #12E $11,000,000 0.0% | . $11,000,000 3 beds 4 baths

#12E was purchased as an estate in 2006, but there's no indication that it was ever renovated.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

Sorry - copy/paste error on the CURRENT line: should read "3 beds 4 baths".

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Response by jasonkyle
over 16 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

neither is worth it to me. as i said i know there is a huge difference in price, too big of one. but i just get why that unit should be worth more. not THAT much more but more than a crappy east facing one.

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Response by jasonkyle
over 16 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

and I have two cats so I would need two 2 bedrooms. please get to work on that.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

670 WEA "C" line. Classic five. Maint.~$1800. Good building, though not as special as the Elliman broker for #12C paints it. Both apartments were in good condition. #8C was more "done".
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
04/03/2009 #12C $1,410,000 -2.4% |↓ $1,445,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths
07/11/2007 . #8C $1,725,000 +8.2% | . $1,595,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

565 WEA #16C. Serial resale. Just reduced $220K to $1.775MM, 24.5% below peak.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT..... #16C ........................ |↓ $1,775,000 2-3 beds 2 baths
10/16/2008 #16C $2,010,000 -6.5% | . $2,150,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,550 ft²
02/15/2008 #16C $2,350,000 +6.8% | . $2,200,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,550 ft²
Tough situation, but an opportunity for a predator with a taste for art deco.

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Response by West81st
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

2250 Broadway #8B. Same-unit resale.
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
03/30/2009 #8B $1,320,000 -1.9% |↓ $1,345,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,100 ft²
01/03/2006 #8B $1,390,000 ...... |

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

don't u sleep?

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