If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Midtown Edition

Yike: 3+ years to sell a place. Looking at the listings you post, AR, it seems that the market is taking a subtle turn down. I'm wondering if that's reality, or whether it's selection bias in the places you post (e.g., you post more harder-hit places). I know some people here revel in just posting outliers that border on ridiculous (e.g., it's up 10% from 2006, but they fail to "discover" that the place had a gut renovation). Are you to some extent guilty of the something similar but in the other direction, or are you just posting everything you find that you think is a proper comp?

No big deal if you have some bias in you postings -- just a lazy reader here trying to see how much I should extrapolate on the state of the market from your postings.

there is some amount of selection bias, but these are more the norm than not, i honestly think that the stronger sales in the markets i follow are outliers (with perhaps the exception of certain condo resales downtown). where i see some strength is in certain established condos (my guess is that they are seen as safer, and i even started a thread in which i noted that but i was shot down) and in the very high end. i don't cover the very high end, i leave that to others generally. park avenue bores me. i could be posting a lot more but in a huge number of instances the ppsf is a good comp but i don't have anything from the exact line so i don't post. or there is no listing. if i were to analyze like the appraisers do, i could post all day.

there have been a huge number of coop sponsor sales recently. they also show some strength, but they often don't have listings and they are just a bit above recent prices. this makes sense as obviously it is much easier to buy from a sponsor, so i feel it's not that noteworthy.

the new development condo market is a very mixed bag. not that much is selling, but in some of the buildings the only sales that occur are close to asking and earlier comps. the sellers are just holding out for the few that will bite. in other buildings, things are heading south rapidly. i assume it reflects the amount of stress the sellers are under. interestingly, some of the highly touted buildings did ok at first but once they made it through initial closings sales are rather slow indeed.

where i am seeing an incredible amount of weakness is in the mid-town and uppers apartments that are conforming-loan eligible. the small apartment market seems to be getting hammered, and closings are occurring fairly quickly so it's more real-time than last year. downtown, which the exception of far downtown, had a rebound, but seems to be starting to fade again. too early to call prime chelsea and west village.

so when you look at my comps you can keep all of this in mind. i wouldn't be posting if i didn't think i was reflecting actual market movement, just putting out outliers. i keep hearing about the strength that will show up "next quarter" in recorded sales, and i've taken it upon myself to show people the deals that are actually occuring.

we do have the thread for the sales that defy trends. i'll readily admit that i do find some and i don't post them. i'm busy enough with mmwc.

Thanks, AR for the complete and introspective reply. It seems to me that even within the class of some-selection-bias comps you have been posting, there seems to be weakness in pricing. I.e., the small reversion from the "bottom of 2009" seems to be fading.

The fact that the bottom continues to be hammered is not surprising, I guess. Every other market went through the same thing: the bottom gives out first because they are the ones that have the least means of dealing with years of negative carry. All this with 15-year agency rates running at 4.25%, meaning effectively a 3% loan -- imagine the bloodbath without it...

nada, i think it is consistent with the reports that have been showing yoy declines, despite the hype.

movement is often caused by emotion, fear, herd-like behavior or need. euphoria + easy credit leads to irrational exuberance and overspending. inertia + moderate access to credit leads to long sales periods. distress + limited credit leads to REO. i think we are somewhere between the last two scenarios, although i am simplifying a great deal.

any given sale is driven by the need/desire of the seller to sell, the temperment of the seller in terms of risk and the equity available to work with. oh, and luck. you only need one uninformed person to hit your price to get lucky. but those factors generally explain the movement, and the discrepancy among sales prices. markets are hugely moved by euphoria/distress. there's little euphoria, although the rich have their groove back. despite the loan propping available, other markets don't seem that strong, and demographics and unemployment and global weakness and a strong dollar tell me that there is a huge downside risk here. even beyond the new development failure potential and probable foreclosures.

3/3 at the Plaza, down 5.5% from 2007: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/484552-condo-1-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york

09/19/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $11,636,298.
12/17/2009 Listed by Trump at $12,500,000.
06/02/2010 Sale recorded for $11,000,000.

To the -5.5%, add the cost of the furniture, though it's no great shakes.

This is one of the park-facing units that includes a former bathroom window in the middle of the living-room wall.

The buyers already had #1507 downstairs, bought in 2007 for $11M plus taxes. Maybe they're going to duplex them.

nwt, that was one of the initial closings? do you know the contract date?

11J sold for $899k late '04. 2/2, with 7.5 x 12 dining area that could be small third bedroom.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/437963-coop-420-east-51st-street-beekman-new-york

07/18/2009 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $895,000.
08/20/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $849,000.
01/21/2010 Price decreased by 4% to $815,000.
04/21/2010 Listing entered contract.
06/08/2010 Listing sold.
06/08/2010 Sale recorded for $750,000.

this is a brilliant comp. look at the increase in pricing from 2004-05. no bubble indeed.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/457113-coop-166-east-35th-street-murray-hill-new-york

06/30/2004Previous Sale recorded for $232,500.
12/22/2005Previous Sale recorded for $334,500.
09/09/2009Listed by Corcoran at $375,000.
09/09/2009Previously Listed by Corcoran at $375,000.
09/10/2009Listing sold.
03/12/2010Corcoran Listing entered contract. Last priced at $345,000.
06/08/2010Sale recorded for $330,000.

166 East 35th - the listing for the 2005 resale goes on at length about the high end renovation. That won't be all of the 2004-05 price increase, but it will be a chunk
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/8907-coop-166-east-35th-street-murray-hill-new-york

aboutready, that 2007 $11.6M at the Plaza was from the sponsor, with a May 2006 contract.

thanks nwt. sls, i missed that.

same unit resale, 1/1 condo. can't tell who did the reno.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/501423-condo-235-east-40th-street-murray-hill-new-york

09/12/2005Previous Sale recorded for $670,000.
03/10/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $725,000.
04/12/2010Listing entered contract.
06/03/2010Listing sold.
06/03/2010Sale recorded for $695,000.

Same-unit resale of an oddly-laid-out 4/3, up 14% from 2006: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/416823-coop-400-east-52nd-street-beekman-new-york

01/17/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $1,700,000.
06/02/2009 Listed by Stribling at $2,150,000.
04/10/2010 Listing entered contract.
06/16/2010 Sale recorded for $1,950,000.

No mention or pictures of kitchen and baths in either set of ads.

> 2005 prices, next stop 2003! Flmao. You can't stop this train wreck! Thxs aboutready, always good with a cup of coffee.

second that, great comps AR! cannot f*cking believe we are still at 2005 levels. maybe this is only true for midtown and we are already at 2003/4 price levels in other neighborhoods? mmm... how slow! this is beyond sticky pricing, it's glacial pace.

"maybe ...we are already at 2003/4 price levels in other neighborhoods? "

You must be joking! Brooklyn is the worth nonsense of all 5 boroughs with prices still over $750/square foot in some neighborhoods far far from Manhattan like Carroll Garden...and you still see some idiots paying over $5oo/sq foot to live in ghettos like Crown Heights, East of Prospect heights or Leffert garden ...

NWT - I actually like the layout of that 4/3. Very expansive living area that you can divvy up as you see fit between a dining room area and the living area. The master bath is darned big if poorly laid out. I would move the W/D to the master bath from facing on the living room but the space has potential. It isn't as if it has wacky walls and an odd flow.

AvUWS, me too, and should've said "unusually" rather than "oddly."

It's a 25'-wide wing of the building that runs to First Ave., with 4- and 6-story buildings flanking it, so that floor must get good light and air.

over a third down from a mid-2006 new development sponsor sale. it was an early closing as well, so contract may have been earlier.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/470356-condo-1600-broadway-times-square-new-york

08/17/2006Previous Sale recorded for $1,501,918.
07/16/2008Previously Listed by Sherwood Residential at $1,695,000.
09/23/2008Sherwood Residential Listing is no longer available.
09/25/2008Previously Listed by Triumph Property Group at $1,550,000.
11/25/2008Triumph Property Group Listing is no longer available.
10/10/2009Listed by Corcoran at $1,260,000.
10/29/2009Price decreased by 25% to $950,000.
11/18/2009Listing entered contract.
04/09/2010Re-listed by Corcoran.
04/22/2010Listing entered contract.
06/23/2010Sale recorded for $925,000.

2/2.5 sold as a three-bedroom, down 12% from 2006: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/496477-coop-160-east-38th-street-murray-hill-new-york

11/30/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $1,252,289.
02/17/2010 Listed by Corcoran at $1,179,000.
03/27/2010 Listing entered contract.
06/29/2010 Sale recorded for $1,100,000.

Good-sized one-bedroom, down 3.5% from 2005: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/505053-condop-333-west-57th-street-clinton-new-york

12/28/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $850,000.
07/28/2008 Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,000,000.
11/25/2008 Delisted temporarily by Prudential Elliman. Last priced at $900,000.
03/23/2010 Listed by Deborah Fredericks at $869,000.
04/29/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/02/2010 Listing sold.
07/02/2010 Sale recorded for $820,000.

3/3.5, flattish from 2007: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/489491-condo-151-east-58th-street-midtown-new-york

02/23/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $5,656,378.
09/19/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $8,000,000.
01/15/2010 Listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $8,900,000.
05/09/2010 Listing entered contract.
06/30/2010 Sale recorded for $8,295,000.

Multiple bids for a small 2/2.5, up 37% from 2007: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/508114-condo-310-west-52nd-street-clinton-new-york

12/05/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $1,527,375. (April contract)
04/07/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,950,000.
05/18/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/01/2010 Sale recorded for $2,100,000.

424 East 52nd Street #10A: Sequential same-unit resale of a 2BR/2BA pre-war coop. Rose 48.6% between the 2005 and 2007 sales, on a mix of renovation and market strength. Subsequently fell 23.2% to close in 2010 at $1.065MM.

03/31/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $925,000.
02/09/2007 Previously Listed by Corcoran at $1,375,000.
05/24/2007 Corcoran Listing sold.
05/24/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $1,386,550.
03/03/2010 Listed by Corcoran at $1,165,000.
04/21/2010 Listing entered contract.
06/28/2010 Listing sold.
06/28/2010 Sale recorded for $1,065,000.

And it could've been worse. See #7A downstairs, with not quite as spiffy a renovation: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/500156-coop-424-east-52nd-street-beekman-new-york

06/01/2009 Listed by Corcoran at $1,175,000.
08/03/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $1,075,000.
11/29/2009 Listing is no longer available.
01/23/2010 Re-listed by Corcoran.
01/26/2010 Price decreased by 7% to $999,000.
03/18/2010 Listing is no longer available.
03/30/2010 Re-listed by Corcoran.
05/04/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/07/2010 Sale recorded for $925,000.

I don't see $140K difference, but somebody did, judging by the timing.

Silly as it may sound, perhaps it was the $8K tax incentive.

3/3 at the Plaza. Tried for a quick flip, but down 16% from 2006: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/233208-condo-1-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york

02/29/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $14,740,466. (March 2006 contract)
05/10/2008 Listed by Corcoran at $17,999,995.
05/18/2008 Price increased by 0% to $18,000,000.
09/17/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $17,000,000.
03/31/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $16,000,000.
08/03/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $14,500,000.
10/01/2009 Listing is no longer available.
10/10/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
10/16/2009 Price decreased by 3% to $14,000,000.
10/19/2009 Price decreased by 1% to $13,900,000.
05/28/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/12/2010 Sale recorded for $12,350,000.

2/2.5, up 43% from 2004: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/478303-condo-300-east-55th-street-sutton-place-new-york

02/25/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $1,430,641. (January 2004 contract)
11/12/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $2,100,000.
01/21/2010 Price decreased by 2% to $2,050,000.
03/23/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/06/2010 Sale recorded for $2,050,000.

yeah... just wait till aboutready comes back....

Small 1/1, flat from 2005: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/488111-condo-310-west-52nd-street-clinton-new-york

02/20/2007 Sale recorded for $715,321. (October 2005 contract)
01/09/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $845,000.
02/09/2010 Price decreased by 6% to $795,000.
04/05/2010 Price decreased by 6% to $749,000.
06/02/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/15/2010 Sale recorded for $726,000.

Studio, renovated by the seller, down 9% from 2006: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/499531-coop-201-east-28th-street-kips-bay-new-york

07/07/2006 Previously Listed by Cooper Square at $359,000.
07/28/2006 Cooper Square Listing sold.
07/28/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $388,281.
03/02/2010 Listed by Halstead Property at $355,000.
05/11/2010 Listing entered contract.
06/17/2010 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
07/09/2010 Sale recorded for $355,000.

3/3.5, nominally flat from 2006: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/326822-condo-310-east-53rd-street-sutton-place-new-york

10/06/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $3,171,848.
07/28/2008 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $4,700,000.
08/15/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/05/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $4,500,000.
12/03/2008 Delisted temporarily.
01/06/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
01/06/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $3,950,000.
05/07/2009 Listing is no longer available.
07/17/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
09/23/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $3,795,000.
02/04/2010 Price decreased by 8% to $3,499,000.
03/17/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/13/2010 Sale recorded for $3,225,000.

Peak resale in that range looks to have been #8C for $3,600,000 in December 2007.

nwt, I'm a lazy sort so I don't know the contract date but it was an early sale.

you might want to take a look at 23e, though.

February 2006 contract.

Yes, 23E will take a beating if it ever closes, and can get a posting then.

nwt, you think market movement doesn't show up pre-closing? really?

Asking prices don't say much. Different lines and floors are too multi-variate for me, and there're enough same-unit resales turning up now. Even those're messy, what with renovations. E.g., you'd think the one above was new enough to be as-built, but the seller apparently spent god knows how much tarting it up with electric blinds and such.

NWT, what a fking crock of turd you are trying to sell.... you know I've been respecting the comps page but f u you stupid borker.

Let's get this straight, 8C closes at $3.2MM or $18K month nut post posting $640K at risk DD, another unit can't get a renter for $7,500/month for an admitted 2bdrm, so we are shy 300 sq ft and 1bdrm.... may I suggest a 3bdrm rental at 10 w 74th street. in addition to the 2bdrm at 310 east 53rd street. I find it so classless to have only a pad on the east side, especially when it is so so far east...
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/665331-rental-10-west-74th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Thanks for pointing out that a lemming and his money is so soon parted esp. when blinded by crown molding... FLMAO

It sounds as if you think I have some kind of agenda, or am trying to make some point, in the transactions I post about. They're just the ones that catch my eye and have a prior sale. If they're not exhaustive enough for you, or if they're not sufficiently supportive of your own point of view, then post your own.

I've got an agenda? spin this piece a turd anyway you want. you point of view "flattish to 2005"
Small 1/1, flat from 2005: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/488111-condo-310-west-52nd-street-clinton-new-york

02/20/2007 Sale recorded for $715,321. (October 2005 contract)
01/09/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $845,000.
02/09/2010 Price decreased by 6% to $795,000.
04/05/2010 Price decreased by 6% to $749,000.
06/02/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/15/2010 Sale recorded for $726,000

my point of view, down from 8/07 closing of $1.061MM for a lower floor D line... $340K down in 3yrs... and we ain't done falling post the lemming juice and yes for 1bdrm under mil plenty of impact from lemming juice.... FLMAOz

See, wasn't that easy? The same-unit resale I posted didn't tell the whole story, because I didn't look at every other same-line sale in the building, so you supplemented it. There's only so much any single one of us can do.

I occasionally do a list of all sales in a line back to construction. So have other people, e.g. sidelinesitter a few pages back. That's pretty time-consuming, though, so I mostly do same-unit-resale posts, deficient in perspective as they are.

BTW, you're off on that "8/07 closing of $1.061MM for a lower floor D line". That was 3D or 4D. Those're two-bed/two-bath. From 5D on up they shrink to one-bed/one-bath, so I wouldn't have treated them as comparable.

Thxs for proving my point. In 2007, I guess the science of knocking down walls and capping Risers did not exist in 2007! Flmao.

And you knowz what we r in the 2nd inning of this shitstorm. Flmao.

asking prices don't say much? right. tell that to the people who weren't able, for whatever reason, to sell during the spring frenzy. you're missing some very interesting trends if you're not considering current asking prices. very few properties are closing for over ask.

ok, w67, I'll get back to work today or tomorrow. as nwt points out, it's a f of a lot of work, but it beats cleaning out the closets, which is next on my list of things to do.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/493975-condo-415-east-37th-street-midtown-east-new-york

06/08/2005Previous Sale recorded for $610,600.
11/26/2009Previously Listed by Century 21 NY Metro at $620,000.
02/02/2010Century 21 NY Metro Listing is no longer available.
02/03/2010Listed by Corcoran at $620,000.
02/23/2010Price decreased by 3% to $599,000.
05/06/2010Listing entered contract.
06/23/2010Listing sold.
06/23/2010Sale recorded for $580,000.

"newly renovated"

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/487402-coop-414-east-52nd-street-beekman-new-york
05/18/2005Previous Sale recorded for $530,000.
04/12/2008Previously Listed by Corcoran at $750,000.
10/14/2008Delisted temporarily by Corcoran. Last priced at $699,000.
11/04/2008Previously Listed by Warburg at $689,000.
01/07/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $580,000.
01/20/2010Warburg Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $599,000.
04/05/2010Listing entered contract.
06/23/2010Listing sold.
06/23/2010Sale recorded for $529,200.

small 2/1.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/490274-coop-420-west-47th-street-clinton-new-york

04/27/2006Previous Sale recorded for $650,000.
01/20/2010Listed by Corcoran at $625,000.
02/24/2010Price decreased by 4% to $599,000.
04/07/2010Listing entered contract.
06/23/2010Listing sold.
06/23/2010Sale recorded for $580,000.

28S, 30S sold for $1,150,000 07/04.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/495074-condo-112-west-56th-street-times-square-new-york

11/05/2008Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,625,000.
02/06/2010Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $1,385,000.
02/08/2010Listed by Corcoran at $1,315,000.
02/19/2010Price decreased by 5% to $1,249,000.
04/12/2010Price decreased by 4% to $1,199,000.
04/30/2010Listing entered contract.
06/23/2010Listing sold.
06/23/2010Sale recorded for $1,120,000.

wow, a condo 2/2.5 for $700/ft. And this isn't Harlem. (Not that I want to live in this area).

Am I missing something, it claims the sf is 1500sf, however if you look at the floorplan it is nothing close. Also the CC and RE taxes are high. And take a look at one of other listings there is an assessment. So i think the sf looks more like 1000sf or so, so actually the cost is closing to $1100psf.

i get 1300sf. still significantly below the listed amount. but i don't think you can blame the broker for this one, all the S line units have the same square footage listed. kind of strange, because this would seem to have been built before square footage measurements for new condos changed.

yes, cc and re taxes are high. they are in many of the established condo buildings.

1/1.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/450476-coop-67-park-avenue-murray-hill-new-york

05/19/2005Previous Sale recorded for $481,000.
05/08/2008Previously Listed by Corcoran at $495,000.
04/08/2009Corcoran Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $465,000.
09/01/2009Listed by Prudential Elliman at $515,000.
11/13/2009Price decreased by 5% to $490,000. 1/1
06/07/2010Listing entered contract.
06/28/2010Listing is no longer available.
07/10/2010Listing entered contract.
07/12/2010Sale recorded for $475,000.
07/22/2010Listing sold.

4DN, newly renovated 2/2. 12DN sold for $1,175,000 08/04. 6DN sold for $1,350,000 11/06.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/475086-coop-60-sutton-place-south-sutton-place-new-york

10/30/2009Listed by Corcoran at $1,250,000.
12/01/2009Price decreased by 7% to $1,165,000.
04/23/2010Listing entered contract.
07/13/2010Listing sold.
07/13/2010Sale recorded for $1,040,000.

extensive renovation.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/497545-coop-137-east-28th-street-kips-bay-new-york

04/18/2005Previous Sale recorded for $425,000.
02/20/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $525,000.
04/21/2010Listing entered contract.
07/12/2010Listing sold.
07/12/2010Sale recorded for $495,000.

another newly renovated small unit.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/499531-coop-201-east-28th-street-kips-bay-new-york

07/07/2006Previously Listed by Cooper Square at $359,000.
07/28/2006Cooper Square Listing sold.
07/28/2006Previous Sale recorded for $388,281.
03/02/2010Listed by Halstead Property at $355,000.
05/11/2010Listing entered contract.
06/17/2010Re-listed by Halstead Property.
07/09/2010Listing sold.
07/09/2010Sale recorded for $355,000.

yet another renovated unit. i must say, i'm not quite sure what's going on here, but comps have NEVER been this easy. condos in sold out buildings continue to show relative strength.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/500141-coop-400-east-52nd-street-beekman-new-york

09/14/2005Previous Sale recorded for $651,680.
10/30/2008Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $649,000.
04/28/2009Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $549,000.
03/03/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $549,000.
05/01/2010Listing entered contract.
07/06/2010Listing sold.
07/06/2010Sale recorded for $575,000.

another new kitchen. maybe bath as well.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/505053-condop-333-west-57th-street-clinton-new-york
12/28/2005Previous Sale recorded for $850,000.
07/28/2008Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,000,000.
11/25/2008Delisted temporarily by Prudential Elliman. Last priced at $900,000.
03/23/2010Listed by Deborah Fredericks at $869,000.
04/29/2010Listing entered contract.
07/02/2010Listing sold.
07/02/2010Sale recorded for $820,000.

this is fugly. significantly below 2005 sales price and it looks as though they spent a fair amount on renovations as well.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/489298-condo-350-west-50th-street-clinton-new-york
10/05/2005Previous Sale recorded for $1,380,000.
01/15/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,295,000.
03/08/2010Price decreased by 8% to $1,195,000.
03/23/2010Listing is no longer available.
04/08/2010Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
05/19/2010Listing entered contract.
07/01/2010Listing sold.
07/01/2010Sale recorded for $1,075,000.

7F, newly renovated. 3F sold for $450k early '06.

08/10/2009Listed by Blanche Sprague at $550,000.
11/02/2009Price decreased by 9% to $499,000.
12/08/2009Price decreased by 8% to $460,000.
01/04/2010Price decreased by 3% to $445,000.
01/29/2010Price increased by 3% to $460,000.
02/04/2010Price decreased by 3% to $445,000.
03/26/2010Price decreased by 10% to $399,000.
05/11/2010Listing entered contract.
06/29/2010Listing sold.
06/30/2010Sale recorded for $393,000.

yet another new renovation!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/444317-coop-235-east-49th-street-sutton-place-new-york
08/29/2005Previous Sale recorded for $425,000.
08/12/2009Listed by Bellmarc at $529,000.
10/04/2009Price decreased by 6% to $499,000.
10/26/2009Price decreased by 10% to $449,000.
01/05/2010Price decreased by 5% to $425,000.
03/09/2010Listing entered contract.
06/30/2010Listing sold.
06/30/2010Sale recorded for $415,000.

Look at those $1,852 monthlies on the Jr. 4 at the Westmore (333 West 57th Street) -- they're probably $600 higher than when the sellers bought; that's part of their problem.

My guess is that's a pop in the underlying land lease due to Midtown getting nicer ... call it the Whole Foods Effect.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

ouch. no listing for this one, so for those of you too cheap to subscribe, i'll just tell you the details. sponsor sale, new condo development, 628sf. 26A closed 06/30 for $405,600. the first A sale in the building (there were later ones at even higher amounts) was 27A for $708,702. just in case such things interest you, extell is the developer.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/1023582

ar, this last one looked like a low enough price that I wondered if you could make the rent v buy math work. Answer: not really. If it rents for, say, $3,000 and has cc + taxes of $1,200, the $1,800 you clear implies a 5.3% cap rate on the purchase price. Not a disaster if you found yourself stuck in that deal for whatever reason, but not one that most people would go looking for.

The previous sponsor-clearing-out-inventory sale was #7B for $346,120 in April. About 15% more SF but on a much lower floor. Probably rents for about the same, maybe a bit more because of the extra space. Assuming the same $1,800 net of cc + taxes, the cap rate is 6.25%. If you could squeeze out even another $200 in rent for the larger layout, now you're looking at 7%, which is interesting. Of course, the fact that you need an extreme pricing outlier ($500 psf for Midtown new dev condo) to make the rent v. buy come close to working for a buyer says something in itself...

Link to building page for units discussed in the last two posts: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/212-east-47-street-new_york?show_all=true

sls, i was wondering the same about the recent sponsor sales at the cielo. 3F, a 628 sf unit, sold for a bit over $417,000. but then i noticed that 3F was listed for rent, started at $2500 and last list was around $2100. not even close.

i have seen some sales that seemed close to me, but i haven't bothered running the numbers.

Latest sale in a building once much discussed on this board. I'm not certain that the floor plan is the same all the way up the building, but from the listing descriptions and maintenance I would guess yes. I have to say I don't get the price resilience in this line. The latest is only 10% off peak and the peak comp was 15 floors higher, which is another way of saying that pricing is close to peak. Why would a line that was $220k-odd in 2004/05 be $330k-odd now? Lissting says nothing about reno, so I don't think it's that. It's not as if 28th and PAS is some kind of trendy location.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/496533-coop-407-park-avenue-south-kips-bay-new-york
07/28/2010 #5C $320,000
06/25/2009 #18C $328,000
10/03/2008 #20C $358,000
07/07/2008 #16C $340,000
01/29/2008 #5C $325,000 (NB: looks like non-arm's-length sale)
11/14/2007 #9C $320,000
05/09/2007 #3C $335,000
10/26/2006 #4C $328,000
10/17/2005 #24C $310,000
04/18/2005 #18C $270,000
01/27/2005 #3C $215,000
06/10/2004 #4C $230,000

Also notable: this was a FSBO. There was some discussion on another thread the other day about whether SE lists FSBOs. Guess so.

425 5th Ave #34BC. 1,300 sf 2/2 combination in a 2003 vintage condo. Closed 15% below 2006 previous sale and 19% above the original sponsor sale prices of the two units that make up the combination.

A 40% gain (before costs) for the original buyers/2006 sellers turned into an equity wipe-out (after costs) for the 2006 buyer/2010 seller who had first and second mortgage totaling $1,324,000 (80%)

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/514501-condo-425-fifth-avenue-midtown-south-new-york
09/07/2010 #34BC $1,400,000
10/03/2006 #34B $1,655,000
10/01/2004 #34C $478,577
10/01/2004 #34B $695,418

seems

333 East 53rd PHC
04/23/2010 Listed by Stribling at $1,695,000.
05/25/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/29/2010 Listing sold.
07/29/2010 Sale recorded for $1,640,000.

447 East 57th 12FLR
05/13/2010 Listed by Warburg at $4,995,000.
07/13/2010Listing entered contract.
08/18/2010 Listing is no longer available.
8/12 Sold $4,775,000

200 East 57th 16N

This one is interesting, as it sold for just under 5% off its original 2009 asking price. Brought back in 2010 for higher price - so that strategy does sometimes work!!
08/12/2009 Listed by Fox Residential Group at $1,035,000.
10/02/2009 Price decreased by 1% to $1,025,000.
11/24/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/27/2010 Re-listed by Fox Residential Group.
01/27/2010 Price increased by 12% to $1,150,000.
02/09/2010 Price decreased by 7% to $1,075,000.
03/02/2010 Listing entered contract.
08/04/2010 Listing sold.
08/04/2010 Sale recorded for $999,999.

110 East 36th, #11B. Same unit resale of an unremarkable 1/1, down 11% from a late 2005 previous close. The recent listing makes no particular mention of a reno, so this may be a straight price comparison w/o need to factor reno into the seller's outcome.

10/18/2010 #11B $587,500
09/15/2005 #11B $662,500
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/527626-coop-110-east-36th-street-murray-hill-new-york

murray hill 2/1 penthouse

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/531086-condo-201-east-36th-street-murray-hill-new-york
12/09/2003Previous Sale recorded for $965,000.
06/08/2010Listed by Bellmarc at $993,317.
10/26/2010Price decreased by 4% to $948,900.

lumiere, small 2/2 condo

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/521415-condo-350-west-53rd-street-clinton-new-york
09/12/2005Previous Sale recorded for $1,170,987.
05/31/2006Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,295,000.
10/18/2006Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $1,275,000.
06/16/2008Previously Listed in StreetEasy, but no longer available, by Prudential Elliman at $1,299,000.
04/09/2009Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $1,150,000.
05/12/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,000,000.
05/21/2010Listing entered contract.
10/14/2010Listing sold.
10/14/2010Sale recorded for $999,000.

combo pre-war 3/2 in murray hill. three bedrooms for less than a million, 15% below the late 2004 sale.

12/15/2004Previous Sale recorded for $1,120,000.
04/19/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,200,000.
05/20/2010Price decreased by 4% to $1,150,000.
06/09/2010Price decreased by 13% to $999,000.
07/30/2010Listing entered contract.
11/08/2010Listing sold.
11/08/2010Sale recorded for $950,000.

orion resale. 1349 sf 2/2

08/17/2006Previous Sale recorded for $1,588,470.
02/03/2007Previously Listed by Corcoran at $1,775,000.
03/26/2007Corcoran Listing is no longer available.
02/17/2010Listed by Corcoran at $1,598,000.
04/09/2010Price decreased by 2% to $1,559,000.
06/18/2010Price decreased by 4% to $1,495,000.
10/26/2010Listing entered contract.
11/03/2010Listing sold.
11/03/2010Sale recorded for $1,430,000.

small jr. 1, about 5% above a very early 2005 price.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/529793-coop-436-east-58th-street-sutton-place-new-york

02/01/2005Previous Sale recorded for $300,000.
06/03/2010Listed by Corcoran at $365,000.
07/13/2010Price decreased by 8% to $335,000.
09/09/2010Listing entered contract.
10/27/2010Listing sold.
10/27/2010Sale recorded for $315,000.

no picture of kitchen, probably needed some work. 15J sold for $725k 07/04. large 1/1.5 with river views.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/495838-coop-45-sutton-place-south-sutton-place-new-york

11/14/2005Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $750,000.
04/07/2007Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $740,000.
02/12/2010Listed by Corcoran at $695,000.
03/24/2010Price decreased by 6% to $650,000.
06/07/2010Listing entered contract.
10/26/2010Listing sold.
10/26/2010Sale recorded for $575,000.

alcove studio. 3f. 6F sold for $383,000 in 10/05.

07/30/2009Listed by Corcoran at $395,000.
09/24/2009Price decreased by 5% to $375,000.
01/05/2010Price decreased by 7% to $350,000.
03/15/2010Price decreased by 3% to $339,000.
04/18/2010Listing entered contract.
06/17/2010Re-listed by Corcoran.
07/14/2010Listing entered contract.
09/25/2010Listing sold.
10/26/2010Sale recorded for $330,000.

straight studio, same unit resale, now listed at about 10% below 10/05 sale.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/483908-coop-284-5th-avenue-midtown-south-new-york

10/14/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $365,040.
12/12/2009 Listed by Oxford Property Group at $389,000.
04/09/2010 Price decreased by 3% to $379,000.
06/05/2010 Price decreased by 3% to $369,000.
09/03/2010 Listing is no longer available.
09/29/2010 Re-listed by Oxford Property Group.
09/29/2010 Price decreased by 8% to $339,000.
11/09/2010 Price decreased by 3% to $329,000.

penny lane studio with sleep loft, about 7% below mid-2005 price.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/502684-coop-215-e-24th-street-kips-bay-new-york

05/11/2005Previous Sale recorded for $383,000.
05/11/2005Previous Sale recorded for $383,000.
01/10/2007Previously Listed by Corcoran at $475,000.
06/14/2007Corcoran Listing sold. Last priced at $415,000.
06/14/2007Previous Sale recorded for $410,000.
03/15/2010Listed by Clickit Realty at $405,000.
04/08/2010Also Listed by Clickit Realty at $405,000.
08/17/2010Clickit Realty Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $369,000.
08/21/2010Listing sold.
11/09/2010Sale recorded for $355,000.

Older closing, but indicative of market.

333 East 53rd PHC

StreetEasy History
04/23/2010 Listed by Stribling at $1,695,000.
05/25/2010 Listing entered contract.
07/29/2010 Listing sold.
07/29/2010 Sale recorded for $1,640,000.

same building, 12H, unit 10H sold for $569,000 in 12/09, and for $495,000 in 04/05. not only indicative of the market, but with comps also.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/517768-coop-333-east-53rd-street-sutton-place-new-york
04/28/2010Listed by Corcoran at $535,000.
09/15/2010Price decreased by 5% to $510,000.
10/09/2010Price decreased by 3% to $495,000.

The ones with comps just fit in so much on a comps thread. Or maybe I'm just picky about these things.

"so much" = "so much better"

Another flip gone sour. Five brokers in 2.5 years: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/552512-condo-1-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york

07/30/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $7,020,741.
04/02/2008 Previously Listed by Warburg at $9,995,000.
04/29/2008 Warburg Listing is no longer available.
05/28/2008 Previously Listed by Stribling at $9,800,000.
10/17/2008 Previously Listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $8,750,000.
10/22/2008 Stribling Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $8,995,000.
06/24/2009 Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $7,500,000.
09/15/2009 Previously Listed by Corcoran at $7,500,000.
03/09/2010 Corcoran Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $6,950,000.
08/23/2010 Previously Listed by Paramount Realty at $5,950,000.
09/10/2010 Listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $6,700,000.
09/10/2010 Delisted by Paramount Realty. Last priced at $5,950,000.
09/24/2010 Price decreased by 12% to $5,900,000.
10/22/2010 Listing entered contract.
12/17/2010 Sale recorded for $5,550,000.

Down and down again: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/545623-coop-210-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york

09/15/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $2,800,187.
03/27/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $2,650,000.
08/10/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $2,575,000.
09/21/2010 Listing entered contract.
12/16/2010 Sale recorded for $2,500,000.

condo 1/1 in established building with extremely low monthly charges.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/555711-condo-411-east-53rd-street-sutton-place-new-york

08/12/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $514,653.
12/21/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $705,000.
09/21/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $715,000.
10/20/2010 Price decreased by 2% to $699,500.

3/3 sutton place condo. closed 14% below 09/05 sale.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/544380-condo-351-east-51st-street-sutton-place-new-york

03/19/2002Previous Sale recorded for $1,639,500.
09/29/2005Previous Sale recorded for $2,500,000.
08/04/2010Listed by Stribling at $2,600,000.
09/24/2010Price decreased by 6% to $2,450,000.
01/04/2011Listing entered contract.
01/20/2011Listing sold.
01/20/2011Sale recorded for $2,150,000.

1 bedroom in "Midtown South" closed 10% below original ask, and 5% below previous 2005 closing price. ~12-month process. Closing price in line with most comparable B-line units in building.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/491552-condo-425-fifth-avenue-midtown-south-new-york

05/25/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $1,300,000.
01/23/2010 Listed by Furumoto Realty at $1,400,000.
03/10/2010 Price decreased by 2% to $1,370,000.
04/17/2010 Price decreased by 3% to $1,330,000.
07/30/2010 Listing entered contract.
09/15/2010 Re-listed by Furumoto Realty .
12/17/2010 Listing entered contract.
01/20/2011 Listing sold.
01/20/2011 Sale recorded for $1,240,000.

this is ugly. monthlies are high, but from the description of the amenities they've likely always been high. 2005 new construction condo. building problems?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/166708-condo-60-east-55th-street-midtown-new-york

03/27/2006Previous Sale recorded for $1,420,458.
01/15/2008Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,600,000.
12/19/2008Delisted temporarily.
06/11/2009Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
06/11/2009Price decreased by 5% to $1,525,000.
11/21/2009Price decreased by 14% to $1,308,000.
02/06/2010Price decreased by 6% to $1,228,000.
03/05/2010Price decreased by 2% to $1,198,000.
05/20/2010Price decreased by 7% to $1,118,000.
07/10/2010Listing is no longer available.
08/30/2010Price decreased by 2% to $1,098,000.
10/29/2010Listing entered contract.
02/09/2011Listing sold.
02/09/2011Sale recorded for $955,000.

Oops: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/490838-coop-50-gramercy-park-north-gramercy-park-new-york

12/08/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $4,429,387.
11/26/2008 Previously Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $6,900,000.
05/05/2009 Delisted temporarily by Brown Harris Stevens. Last priced at $5,900,000.
08/20/2009 Previously Listed by CORE at $5,950,000.
01/21/2010 Listed by CORE at $5,450,000.
11/05/2010 Listing sold.
11/05/2010 CORE Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $4,500,000.
01/21/2011 Sale recorded for $4,150,000.

This might be the one this broker had on Selling New York last year.

This is the one that was being sold by the soap-opera-star daughter of the owners, right? I think I distinctly remember that bedroom.

This one had the guru who came in and blew some incense around to fix the energy of the space, yah? Should've saved $200 and a bunch of time by simply looked at SE's index to see that prices are 6% below their purchase price...

I thought it was, but the bathroom seemed different. But then that was last season, and now this season I'm staggered by the woman who tarted up the low-floor Lux 74 penthouse and is trying to make $1M+ on the flip.

Yep, that was most certainly entertaining. I like how she decided not to sell despite having an offer, yet magically the listing came back a month later. I also like how the listing has grown 200 sq ft over the years according to the SE history. I guess the equally-tarted-but-50%-bigger place one floor below must have put a damper on things since it was asking the same price, but no worries, now that that one seems sold, it's the only one and people will surely pay the premium now.

Nice maintenance at the gramercy place....yikes...seems pricey to me even after the choppery

Wtushy!

NWT-and the lady on 74th street got an offer and then pulled the listing. The broker on the air wasa bit miffed, but boy that must have hurt...alot.

The Veneto is a new Related condo building where the resales have mostly been doing fairly well. Not this one. Decent sized apartment for the building, 3/3, don't know when they sold these units, if I recall the building sold out very quickly.

06/03/2008Previously Listed in StreetEasy, already sold, by Corcoran at $0.
06/03/2008Previous Sale recorded for $3,471,979.
10/21/2008Corcoran Listing sold.
09/20/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $3,500,000.
10/14/2010Price decreased by 4% to $3,350,000.
10/28/2010Price decreased by 6% to $3,150,000.
11/08/2010Price decreased by 5% to $2,995,000.
01/11/2011Listing entered contract.
02/03/2011Listing sold.
02/03/2011 Sale recorded for $2,900,000.

One where a flipper made some money: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/556007-coop-1-sutton-place-south-sutton-place-new-york

01/03/2008 Previously Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $6,700,000.
06/12/2008 Brown Harris Stevens Listing sold. Last priced at $6,200,000.
06/12/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $5,600,000.
09/22/2010 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $8,500,000.
11/30/2010 Listing entered contract.
02/23/2011 Sale recorded for $8,000,000.

The whole kitchen wing was reconfigured. Central A/C too, though not mentioned in the 2010 listing.

635 West 42nd Street #31K: 2BR/2BA condo with views at Atelier. Closed 9% below original sponsor sale - a big loss after transaction costs, but not nearly the disaster it could have been.
05/07/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $1,517,192.
02/20/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,575,000.
05/10/2010 Price decreased by 13% to $1,375,000.
10/25/2010 Price increased by 5% to $1,450,000.
12/28/2010 Listing entered contract.
02/22/2011 Sale recorded for $1,380,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/497437-condo-635-west-42nd-street-clinton-new-york

Let's see: $137K capital loss, $160K in mortgage interest paid, $28K in taxes, $168K in transaction costs, $47K of interest lost if $517K down payment had been invested in a bond fund like TLT (or if you prefer, SPY has returned exactly $0K over that same period). Works out to $540K for 3 years of enjoyment, or $15K a month. Maybe tax benefits knock off $45K (this buyer seems likely in the 28% AMT category, so only on interest), making it $495K, or $13.7575/K a month. Rent benefit was $5500 a month, or $198K. So to an owner-occupant, overpaying by 2.5x.

Except it wasn't owner-occupied. It looks like an investment that was only rented for 2 of the 3 years: apparently, the owner couldn't get anyone to bite at $7000 a month and found someone else to hand the alligator over to.

So, final tally is $500K investment, $493K paid out (ignore investment in TLT for this calculation), $132K taken in. Net results, a $361K loss on a $500K investment. So, an 72% loss with a "conservative" 34% downpayment in "safe" Manhattan RE. Three-quarters of the investment gone.

Down 9%: 'tis but a flesh wound.

inonada,

as west81st said, it's not as bad ss it could have been. just because the balance between your number for "investment" and the actual price paid for the apartment was debt doesn't mean that wasn't risked as well. and to be fair, do we know for a fact that this person took out a mortgage at all? clearly, this one did not work out for the original buyer. but who can dispute that it could have been worse than a 9% decline.

Another Atelier listing, this a one bedroom. not getting any takers at 14% off original sponsor sale price.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/601893-condo-635-west-42nd-street-clinton-new-york

08/13/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $753,505.
09/11/2010 Previously Listed by River 2 River Realty at $660,000.
03/18/2011 Delisted by River 2 River Realty. Last priced at $650,000.
04/22/2011 Listed by River2River Realty at $650,000.

the building has 55 active sales listings and 65 active rentals. at this rate the current sales inventory would be absorbed in about three years. the building has had 324 previous rental listings. there's no place like home.