What Barbara Fox has to say on the state of NYC RE -

Seems like a load of bull from someone who needs to push people to do deals -- "As 2009 proceeds, I think we're going to see more and more buyers take the plunge into the market - especially those who were priced out of prior markets". Anyone who can write that deserves to be ignored completely.

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Frankly some of this is a little silly. The notion that a buyer is "justified" in expecting discounts from inflated values is typical broker presumptuousness. The value of any apartment is the price at which it sells at closing, no more, no less.

Whether that value is at a discount or premium to the list price is a function of many things.

Oddly, she does touch on this notion:

"Let's face it, value in real estate is determined by the price someone will pay for a certain property at any given time. I believe that wise sellers will understand this and act accordingly; that buyers will acknowledge there are limits to the price reductions they can achieve; and that at least by the second half of 2009, the market will start to come together and regenerate the volume of prior years."

But she shoots herself in the foot by offering a prognostication about the what the market will do in the latter half of 2009. Anyone who professes to tell you when a market will recover (any market) is a fool. Hell, even economists differ on the question of when this recession/depression began, how long it will last, which policies by our government and others will remedy the economic malaise, etc. Economists are still debating the causes of the Great Depression! The idea that a real estate broker is a better forecaster than a group of economists is, well, naive. The only certainty about markets is that they fluctuate over time (yes, even Manhattan real estate).

Nothing in this opinion that is interesting has not been said more concisely elsewhere, and the stuff of interest is obscured by the puffery.

So, yeah, not too impressed with this "analysis."

It's hard to see how "those who were priced out of prior markets" are going to help the high end, which is where she says the weakness is concentrated. If they were priced out of the high end, they could still buy in the mid-range. And with tight credit, their purchasing power will tend, if anything, to be diminished.

"...we're not going to see for a while the kind of year-to-year appreciation that we've been spoiled by in past years. At some point, though, this too will return."

Right, along with the piggy-back HELOC, the alt-a and subprime markets, and MBS. Oh, and Greenspan will be reinstated, and upon his death he will be enbalmed ala Bentham and will forever dictate interest-rate policy.

Although she's probably right, eventually. We seem to have a large appetite for bubbles.

She's a nice lady, but one of those 'buy now or you'll be priced out' types.

"buyers will acknowledge there are limits to the price reductions"

75% is what property fell in Tokyo.

So yes, that's a limit.

>As 2009 proceeds, I think we're going to see more and more buyers take the plunge into the market – especially those who were priced out of prior markets.<

Obviously, Ms. Fox didn't listen to this morning's comments at CNBC with regard to the direction of Manhattan RE. In WS circles, there is much concern out there with the future values & this is not limited to the next 12 months.

It's peachy to state that Manhattan has withstood some difficult economic periods in the past as have most US major cities. However, if one purchased in front of those periods or in the early stages of the BEAR, it would have been one painful exercise and recoveries were a long time in the coming. A realtor wouldn't give a damn if some ex-client was down 40% after they sold them a bill of goods.

Perhaps it's silly on my part but whenever I gaze at the value of Citigroup stock, I just can't get exited about this market.

Steve,

Last night, PBS had a show called 'The ascent of money'. They showed a Tokyo apt selling for $2mil, but, during the bubble, it sold for $6mil.

i think that she is right on to state that the major problem is with the high end market. The mid range $1-2 million will have no where near the troubles as the high end. All you naysayers lump every property at every price point into your same gloom doom and gloom.

There are units and price points that will not crash, some may even increase.

steve keeps mentioning tokyo which brings me to two points:

1) if you go to tokyo nothing about it seems devestated. so even if we find ourselves in this position, i don't think anyone who has spent time there wold say they did a shudder and thanked god they didn't share their fate.

2) people just don't tend to ex-patriate to tokyo. london, hong kong, nyc...yes. but not tokyo which def. made their supply/demand scenario worse.

petrifz, if the higher end (especially the $2-4M properties) start getting pushed closer to the threshold of the $1-2 Million properties, it creates downward preassure all around. You can't tell me that a classic six that was selling for $1.8 will only get pushed to $1.6 while the $3M classic eight will drop to $2M.

petrfitz...mid range is $1-2m what is low range?

I saw the show, dwell, though I already knew what had happened.

serge is right - this is far worse than in the past. In the past the firms survived; not this time.

"The value of any apartment is the price at which it sells at closing, no more, no less."

I've heard this thrown around a lot (mostly by bears, but that may just be because there are more bears so thats statistically expected). But that's a very stevejhx-style argument: "I'm going to define away a concept most people consider important". If I buy a condo for 10M and sell it to you the next day for $1, you claim that is the "value" of the apartment, no more, no less.

Yet any rational observer would argue that the condo had a bit more value than that. You could sell the fancy fridge on Craigslist for at least $2. The IRS will come after you for not paying a gift tax, since they believe the apartment has more value than the $1 it transferred as.

You say this isn't "value" - fine, I really don't care what words we use, as long as we understand each other. What do you call that concept of a property changing hands at a nominal price that is atypical? Instead of defining it out of existence stevejhx-style (since it quite obviously exists), lets instead come up with an accepted term that separates the nominal price at closing from an estimated accepted value.

i never said that the high end is getting pushed to the $1-2 million range. I think that the high end will not come down that much. There will be many owners that hold onto their high end units, a few that sell at discounts, and many less built in the next few years, and more rented than sold.

There will be less of the high end sold, available for sale, and less built. The mid range $1-2 million will have increased demand and hold prices. When the developer market comes back you will see developers building more middle end units (that are marketed like high end) but at mid range prices.

Tech_guy: Try this statement. "The value of a stock is the price at which it sells, no more, no less."

What is the difference between the statement (certainly valid) and the one about real estate? None.

If you sell your apartment for $1, that's its value.

fakeestate: Yet the IRS will try to get you to pay gift tax. They will assess some number, subtract $1 from that number, and accuse you of withholding gift taxes on that amount. If you refuse to pay it, citing $1 as the value, the IRS will either take it from your bank accounts and pay stubs, or you will go to jail, or both.

These are 2 different concepts, both very real, both deserving a name of their own. What do you call my concept?

Tech-guy, what are you talking about? What does a gift tax have to do with anything?

Has anyone dealt w/ Fox? If so, what was yr experience?

If I buy a $10M condo and sell it to you for $1, the IRS makes me pay a gift tax on $10M (minus $1, minus $12k annual exemption, but you get the idea). What do you call that $10M-$1 amount? Extortion? Imaginary value? Foo?

If you are thinking of buying the identical unit one floor lower, do you offer $1 and say you won't pay a penny more, since that's the true value? That's the comp? Obviously the seller will laugh at you. He thinks its worth more, and that the $1 transaction is not true value.

This concept I'm describing is blatantly obvious to everyone. It should have a name. You say that name isn't "value" - fine, I don't care what name it has, but I'm curious to know what name you think it has. If you still refuse to even acknowledge that concept's existence, you're demonstrating first hand what a stevejhx-style "define it out of existence" argument is. Also known as a strawman argument.

Tech_guy, I don't know what you're talking about here. It certainly is not a strawman argument.

Ms. Fox comments are spoken like a true broker. She speaks of buyers justifying a 15-20% price drop. Most potential buyers I know expect a 30-40% price drop from early 2008 levels (aka the peak of the market). Simply put buyers have less money to spend, less income to support mortgage payments (likely permanently) and a market will develop that reflects all of this. The market will not simply rebound in a year's time. The more likely scenario is a steep decline (overshooting on the downside) and then return to a historical 3-5% nominal growth trajectory in line with inflation/income growth/demographic trends. What she fails to mention is that the cost of ownership in NYC for many people also includes private school, garage payments, higher cost of living, etc. The Wall Street crowd simply doesn't have the discretionary dollars needed to support this lifestyle/real estate market.

Also, she mentions those priced out of the market will now provide support for the mid-range of the market. Big stretch to presume those that couldn't afford apartments when the going were good can afford them today - most people are worse off, not better off.

fakeestate: Don't make blanket pronouncements about what other people can say (like the definition of "value") if your incapable of defending that pronouncement. Clearly you're wrong.

Isn't this the EXACT story they gave us to say the market wouldn't decline in the first place?

Nice how that worked out...

Whether justified or not, buyers are expecting a 15-20% price drop from what similar properties sold for in the first half of 2008, before they can become comfortable with a purchase.

I would say it is Ms. Fox who has not adjusted to reality. Is there anyone out there looking at a listing who says to himself "I bet I can get it for 15% under the ask."

tech-guy - if you buy an apt for $10mm and then the next day sell it to me for a dollar, the value of that apt is one dollar unless you did not conduct an auction and lost it to me in a poker game because you were a dollar short of calling me and threw the keys in as part of your call.

This has only just begun. We have never seen deflation on such a massive scale anywhere.

bender: Wrong. Legally, that's not true. The IRS calls the $10M a gift, since the apartment is worth $10M, not $1, and if you disagree, they'll throw you in jail. A real estate appraiser won't use a $1 sale as a comp. If you try to use $1 as a reason to justify a $2 bid on the unit one floor up, the irrational seller there will laugh at you.

If you're definition doesn't match the law, real estate professionals, and irrational people playing in the market... you sound pretty dumb insisting that you're right and they're wrong. More likely its your definition that's wrong.

techhie, it's always interesting to see how you opine about things you know nothing about. The tax treatment will depend on a number of things, including, not the least, how you give it (General Warranty Deed, Limited Warranty Deed, General Limited Warranty Deed, Quit Claim Deed) and whom you give it to.

The smartest way to do it is to give the property to another person, "lend" them the money to buy it, and amortize the loan as a gift over a number of years.

Then no tax for the recipients.

"you sound pretty dumb insisting that you're right and they're wrong."

Always wrong, never in doubt.

techguy,

if you choose to sell the apartment for less than it is worth to your daughter, then you have not sold it for "what someone is willing to pay for it, no more, no less." you have sold it for what you chose to value it as. that's why it is tax fraud. the value of anything--a stock, a can of soda, a painting, an ear of corn, a bond, a dollar bill--is set by a market. the fact that it is possible to evade the market to commit tax fraud does nothing to undermine the concept of market valuation.

Always wrong, never in doubt, part II.

Thank you steve/happyrenter for explaining the obvious to the clueless.

happyrenter, care to reread what I'm commenting on and try again? fakeestate said: "The value of any apartment is the price at which it sells at closing, no more, no less." Your own comments contradict that - a man selling to his daughter have a closing, no?

has* a closing

"The smartest way to do it is to give the property to another person, "lend" them the money to buy it, and amortize the loan as a gift over a number of years."

Their interest paid to you is taxable income. The fact that you gifted it back to them doesn't change your tax obligations. It does mean you get the 12k exemption multiple times, but doesn't change the fact that the apartment was never worth $1. And yes, the IRS even has rules for what interest levels you're allowed to charge - if you call it 0.0001%, its still tax fraud.

Lastly: "Then no tax for the recipients."

There's never a gift tax for a recipient. Only for the giver.

tech_guy, don't rename yourself to lawyer_guy, or soon you'll become disbarred_guy. In your little hypothetical that you set up for us you implied that you bought an apt for $10mm and then the next day you sold it to me (an unrelated party) for $1. That's an arms-length transaction you were describing, not a related party transaction where you sell it to your son in law who agreed to marry your ugly daughter in exchange for such favors down the road.

So, if you resell your apt to me in an arms-length transaction for a dollar, the apt is worth a dollar.

PS - hint for your future pontifications: when you call someone you disagree with stupid, you are saying much more about yourself.

You dig yourself deeper and deeper, techhie, as with every other claim you make:

"Their interest paid to you is taxable income. [...] And yes, the IRS even has rules for what interest levels you're allowed to charge - if you call it 0.0001%, its still tax fraud."

The first part is correct, the second part is INCORRECT. Show me where the IRS regulates interest rates.

"The fact that you gifted it back to them doesn't change your tax obligations."

You haven't gifted it to them. You have "sold" it to them, financed the sale, and amortized the loan as a gift.

"It does mean you get the 12k exemption multiple times, but doesn't change the fact that the apartment was never worth $1."

Who said anything about $1 besides you?

MOREOVER - to show how further little you know - if you transfer the property under a quit-claim deed, there is no tax AT ALL owed. What happens is the grantee assumes the grantor's tax basis. If I bought a house for $100,000, quit claimed it to you, neither of us would owe any tax at that time. If you subsequently sell the house for $200,000, you will owe tax on the $100,000 gain.

OMG you are really out of your league. On everything.

And then, if the original property was owned in trust, there is never gift tax from property held in trust.

You really need at least to google what you write, before you do.

Tech guy I have a bridge to sell you for $1.

Always wrong never in doubt part infinity.

bender1961: I was talking to happyrenter, responding to his example. Is your reading comprehension really so low?

stevejhx: You're doing your typical thing where you redefine what I said, argue against it, and declare yourself right. Its called a strawman. I never mentioned quit-claim deeds. I don't know where you got it from. I said if I sell an apartment for $1, the value of that apartment is not $1. You've said nothing to refute that claim.

You never mentioned quit-claim deeds, techhie, BECAUSE YOU DIDN'T KNOW THEY EXISTED! You said "gifting" for a dollar. Who would do that when you can give the place away for free?

Please, you are SO out of your league. Go back to compiling.

"Never argue with a fool, they will lower you to their level and then beat you with experience."

nyc10022 - thanks, i was about to reply to the lowtech_guy and then I read your post

"you redefine what I said, argue against it, and declare yourself right. Its called a strawman. I never mentioned quit-claim deeds. I don't know where you got it from. I said if I sell an apartment for $1, the value of that apartment is not $1."

What about the part where you say the IRS regulates interest rates?

LMAO.

Strawman. It's like your definition of opportunity cost, your own curious way of valuing foreign mutual funds, and everything else you have ever said. All you can do, like your alter-ego LICC, is project your own failings onto me.

Just look it all up.

Tecchie - nearly an hour! Where's that source on how the IRS regulates interest rates?

Tech,
I will bring all my tax planning stuff to you.

Tech can you fix my computer? I mean, you really seem to know what you're talking about here so I bet you're a really good tech guy too.

He's LICC!

Tech,
I need some structural engineering work done. When can you get to work?

The IRS definitely publishes interest rate levels below which any differential is considered a gift. The rates are the Applicable Federal Rates and are referenced in various provisions. (I'm not a tax lawyer, but this is a pretty basic estate planning principle.)

"The IRS definitely publishes interest rate levels below which any differential is considered a gift."

Show us where. Because if that's so, my 0% promotional rate from American Express is taxable.

Which it's not.

(I'm not a tax lawyer, but this is a pretty basic estate planning principle.)

What the f*ck does estate planning have to do with interest rates?

w67 - true evil.

Where's tecchie to defend his position? And malraux, and juiceman, and spunky, and evillager, and duecescracked, and all the other ones we've lost over the month?!

Or should I say "months"?

JuiceMan's disappeared, again?

JM now only does cameos. Spunky went through that phase too, when he was on "vacation." Then disappeared.

As MMAfia predicted, one by one they fall by the wayside. DaBulls, steveF, there are dozens.

I was predicting a 50% fall in property prices. If nothing changes, it could reach 75%.

whether justified or not, sellers expected annualized increases of 10-20% a year for the foreseeable past......
the commoditization of assets took place at an unprecedented pace
thus
whether justified or not, the commodity will now depreciate at 10-20% a year for the foreseaable future as speculative transactions mediated by brokers who win in either direction proceed

isnt this what the foxy lady is saying?

tech:

The AFR or applicable federal rate is set by the U.S. Treasury, not the I.R.S. The I.R.S. simply uses the number the Treasury tells them to. Not even close to sure if this is accurate, but I think the AFR rules only apply to relatives and friends, not unrelated business transactions.

AFR is not related to the discussion. You can lend money at any rate you want. AFR's are used to value annuities & similar obligations. If I want to lend my cat $10,000 at 0%, no one can stop me. It's a business decision.

UNLESS it is a transaction with a related party, which must be done @ market rates. But that's a corporate income tax issue, not an individual one. If I want to lend my mother $10,000 @ 0% interest, it is not taxable to either of us.

joedavis, 20% is rather niggardly, as they've already fallen 20% in the past 6 months.

correct and incorrect:
"UNLESS it is a transaction with a related party, which must be done @ market rates. But that's a corporate income tax issue, not an individual one. If I want to lend my mother $10,000 @ 0% interest, it is not taxable to either of us."

It depends on the dollar value. If you lend your cat 10mm at 0% you clearly bring AFR into question. If you have exceeded your lifetime gift limitation then you are liable for the difference between the rate you charged and the AFR

"JM now only does cameos. Spunky went through that phase too, when he was on "vacation." Then disappeared."

Ironically, he's the first to accuse folks of "running".

"If you lend your cat 10mm at 0%"

If somebody borrows my cat for $10 million, I will gladly pay the difference.

Moreover, if they want to borrow 1 cat for $10 million, let them know I have 2.

"I think the AFR rules only apply to relatives and friends, not unrelated business transactions"

Not entirely, but close enough for this discussion.

JM now only does cameos. Spunky went through that phase too, when he was on "vacation." Then disappeared.

As MMAfia predicted, one by one they fall by the wayside. DaBulls, steveF, there are dozens.

I was predicting a 50% fall in property prices. If nothing changes, it could reach 75%.

Listen Squidward(stevejhx)..I have a life where I don't want to spend evry moment here like you and nyc10022. You know why I have a life, like the other bulls, it is because we are positive doers who got in the game, made money and can enjoy life....People don't be sucked into the stevejhx, nyc10022 misery vortex.....

Yeah, sure, I got it. Same folks who had no problem with "not having a life" when they posted endlessly about how Manhattan RE would go up (or be saved from the national crisis) are suddenly "too busy" now that the crash is in. Its like tech guy who knew everything 2 months ago, but now "nobody knows" now that the data shows we are in a bear market...

She doth protest too much...

Wow, I'm busy in an evening, and everybody's first thought is that I'm running. Not that I'm... busy. You guys must lead such interesting lives.

Keep insulting me though - its quite entertaining to see what lengths blind-bears will go to argue the dumbest points imaginable (a $1 closing is true, actual value? Should be the subject of an SNL "REALLY???" skit), just because a non-bear is on the other side.

I can see why the other bulls / moderates left. It has nothing to do with running. It has everything to do with mind-numbing stupidity. $1? REALLY???

I dunno, I'm kinda entertained by the thought of a $10MM cat.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Not as entertained by the idea as I am!

nyc10022..what crash are you talking about? We are in a state of buyer apprehension causing a large drop off in sales. The majority of transactions taking place are from sellers who must sell. Even with this scenario happening, inventory is still at normal historical levels. The credit crisis has thawed(look at the ted spread under 100bps). Once buyers are comfortable the recession is under control they will be back and with no new development to choose from. Guess what?...another surge in prices.

"what crash are you talking about?"

"We are in a state of [...] a large drop off in sales."

What, pray tell, is a large drop off in sales if not a crash.

"The majority of transactions taking place are from sellers who must sell."

As opposed, I supposed, to ones who merely want to sell?

In any case - prove it empirically.

Yes, the rationalization song. I've heard that one before...
Didn't you use the same stupidity to tell us there wouldn't be a decline in the first place?

Thats really working out well for you.

No new developments? Are you that much in denial. Most apartments added to Manhattan inventory in history - 2008. Second biggest.... will be 2009.

Oh yeah, you are the genius who thought that the "buildings are stopping building" articles would have an effect this year... Sorry, thats years away.

Keep trying, though... its pretty funny.

Most people only use "crash" to describe prices, not volume. No, I will not provide empirical evidence to prove this. Its already been established many times over that you don't understand most people.

nyc10022....hey listen sweetheart.:)..ahh forget it...you misery people are a lost cause....

What "I" don't understand tecchie? Let's get back to the matter of your gift tax on the $1 sale of property, rather than quit-claiming it for free....

Volumes can crash just as well as prices. Indeed, in real estate (unlike stocks), when volumes crash prices must, as well.

"Yeah, sure, I got it. Same folks who had no problem with "not having a life" when they posted endlessly about how Manhattan RE would go up (or be saved from the national crisis) are suddenly "too busy" now that the crash is in."

Ugh. You weren't even here then! Yes, there is a handful of ridiculous posters who are willfully blinding themselves to what's happening in the market, but it's a minority. Ridiculous to lump JuiceMan, malraux, evillager (all of whom have not "disappeared") in with the DaBulls and steveFs of the world.

stevejhx, at least now you're making it obvious that you're rewriting what I said. I said a $1 sale involves a gift tax. You're telling me its not a sale, its a quit-claim, and obviously there's no gift tax. You can call it Chinese tea if you want. That doesn't change my argument or my conclusion - it just changes your strawman view of it.

The fact that others are so blinded by agenda that they support your stupid arguments is almost as sad.

I'm still pretty bullish as evidenced by the fact that hubby and I are out there shopping for ourselves, but I recognize that the drop in volume (which I would call a "stall" or a "freeze" rather than a "crash") is a leading indicator of a drop in prices. I'm not just saying this to suck up to stevejhx because he has a $10mm cat to sell; Jonathan Miller and I were talking about this the other day.

The "X" factor, though, is credit. The lending market has been lousy for a year and a half. If it stays lousy, prices should drop, but you still probably won't see a lot of transactions. If it recovers and real people can suddenly get those 5% mortgages, that might provide a level of price support.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

If Leona Helmsey's dog can be worth $12MM why not Steve's cat? Cats are always underappreciated.

lol

"I said a $1 sale involves a gift tax."

Yup. Because only someone didn't know you can transfer property tax free would even posit such a stupid thing.

Fess up. You didn't know it.

Cat's are underappreciated. They keep the vermin away.

Well, not on this board, but in general.

"Fess up". I had absolutely no idea what a quit-claim-whatever is. I still don't. I still don't care.

Fess up. You have completely failed to even attempt to dispute my point - that a single closing does not necessarily determine the true value of an apartment.