Case-Shiller, NYC with biggest price decline since it peaked on June 2006

so...are you saying that overall NYC and those counties mentioned are off 13% from peak? is there a way to find out how far from peak each county in jersey, conn. and ny are?

Why do you put so much emphasis on data taken from a national level? They know nothing about the local Manhattan market. Manhattan did not peak in June, 2006. The city peaked in early 2007.

Doesn't include Manhattan. Only single-family homes.

gotcha. so it is just the burbs? ok. is it possible to get #'s for each county? does someone do a report for them?

So why does the heading of the post say "NYC with bigesst price decline since it peaked on June 2006"? Last I checked NYC's most densely populated borough is Manhattan.

anon10, for somebody in manhattan the "commute area" that includes some counties of CT and NJ is "national level"? quite insular view.

ok, so i answer you, there's a premium for living in manhattan versus queens, brooklyn and other counties from where people commute to work in manhattan ... that premium is already established in price differences. people tend to be willing to pay a certain % more for a similar home due to location. if prices are falling on westchester and brooklyn (which are substitutes for manhattan) for ex, it's very relevant for manhattan. the premium will still there but it will still push prices lower.

I don't know what you "checked," but Case-Shiller only includes single-family homes, of which there are plenty in the outer boroughs, not so many in Manhattan.

sniper, yes, case-shiller index is saying it. this is the only series of repeated sales data we have, so the problem of change of the mix is not present here. it's the most widely followed index by the "experts". this is part of their 20-city index (metropolitan areas mostly and 2 commute areas: NYC and chicago). it doesn't cover each county individually, it would be great if so!!!

but my guess is that soon enough there would be very good indexes built on this that covers each county. good data on real estate is still very hard to come by, even though it's the biggest asset class in usa. amazing, isn't it?

another thing, this index covers single family homes (that are the traditionally followed ones cause they hold their value the best in this kind of mkt, show less volatility than the rest). co-ops are NOT included as far as i know.

thanks for the explanation. i have been having a hard time finding out where offers are being put in and accepted on homes in bergen county, westchester and some others. i would like to know this info.

steve, "I don't know what you "checked," if you want to check anything about the index, go directly to them. they explain their methodology on the website where the data is provided.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

sniper, i guess that trulia is making an attempt to provide what you are looking for, but i've never used it before. people here should be able to tell you how useful it was for them:

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/10601-White_Plains/

"this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs."

Case-Shiller Condo price index was also released today. NY region condo prices are down 3.5% Y/Y. The high for the index was Feb '06.

The condo index only tracks condo resales. Not co-ops, not single family homes, not new construction.

thanks 80sMan! it's so interesting that between the peak, as you said Feb 06 and July 08 the drops were neglegible. from Aug 08 till now for the first time declines are decidedly bigger than 1%. now they are closer to 4%. what a fight! take my hat to manhattan's condos. the future is only down in my view.

the difference with nearby counties might be that distressed sales show up later in the game, due to job losses and higher quality mtg resets (alt-a and prime versus subprime, most of those resets come later). a big chunk of the boroughs were subprime territory so they felt before.

80sMan You will have to wait until next week, when Radar Logic releases their "RPX Monthly Manhattan Neighborhoods Report"
Will inclulde all Manhattan Neighborhood changes in PPSF, Transaction Counts, % change in transactions for Condos.

Keep in mind that a vast amount of the high-earners and other Manhattan workers live in the suburbs and that price declines there are useful in that they reflect job loss/instability and income loss for people who work in the city. The region's economy is directly tied to nyc.

note: "vast amount" does not mean majority. I'm not saying most workers, but a lot - just to be clear.

Admin, another way to look at the condo resale index is that if you factor in the buy/sell transaction costs most people who bought after 2004 are flat or negative. The higher average/median prices reported in the press for the past few years were due to new construction, not resales of existing condos.

anon10: "Last I checked NYC's most densely populated borough is Manhattan."

What does population density have to do with anything? I get your larger point that it's slightly misleading to call a thread "NYC prices declines" when very little of the data is from Manhattan, but to frame it in terms of density is odd. For what it's worth, Brooklyn is the most heavily populated borough.

"misleading to call a thread "NYC prices declines" when very little of the data is from Manhattan"

New York City has 5 Boroughs: The Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island.

"Last I checked NYC's most densely populated borough is Manhattan."

And more people live in brooklyn OR queens (and bronx is pretty close) than Manhattan.

So saying NYC and only including Manhattan is a pretty lousy mistake.

1) Majority of all the listings on Street Easy are for apts in Manhattan. It is reasonable to assume most people browsing for homes here are therefore looking for Manhattan apts. Ergo my emphasis on Manahattan...and why the title "NYC price declines" on this Manhattan-focused website is misleading since it has data only for single family homes.

2) There may be more people living in the other boroughs but how many number of units are for sale? Just because there are more people in a borough does not mean they have more housing units. Manhattan has more single people living alone than say Brooklyn or Staten Island, which probably has more families.

3) More densely populated = more housing units

4) Just to reiterate, this is a Manhattan focused website. I don't see many listings for Staten Island, Queens, etc. on here so why you have a problem with me zeroing in on Manhattan is puzzling.

> 3) More densely populated = more housing units

Again, NO NO NO. Use your brain.

That is only true of the area is the same size or larger. AND IT IS NOT.

It has FEWER housing units!

anon10, read by previous post "there's a premium for living in manhattan versus queens, brooklyn and other counties from where people commute to work in manhattan ...". what part don't you agree with?

if you are only looking to buy in manhattan and prices are coming down very fast on markets that compete with manhattan... you should expect manhattan to fall. if you care about pricing of an asset you should never disregard what's going on with substitutes.

nyc10022 - no need to state the obvious. Duh. The comment was directed towards Slope who wanted to know why I was referencing density.

admin - most people i know, regardless of how much cheaper the outer boroughs are, could care less. They want to live in Manhattan. Otherwise, they would move to another city altogther.

> nyc10022 - no need to state the obvious. Duh.

Yeah, you'd think.... but you did make that mistake.

"admin - most people i know, regardless of how much cheaper the outer boroughs are, could care less. They want to live in Manhattan. Otherwise, they would move to another city altogther."

Yes, and we get that your experience isn't based in reality, at least the reality of the city. Doesn't matter if you only know the mayor and Princess Caroline, but MUCH MORE folks live outside Manhattan than in in this city. This just goes to show that your perspective is too limited to understand the bigger trends. Plenty of people in the outer boroughs could care less about Manhattan.

But that doesn't change facts...

anon10: "me and my friends = the market" ?

nyc10022 - shut up. no mistake was made by me. what are you talking about? i was answering Slope's question why I noted density. I never suggested that we are talking about the same surface area. you are an idiot. you must be one of those annoying always-right nag.

Do me a favor - ignore me and I'm going to ignore you now too. good bye.

> nyc10022 - shut up. no mistake was made by me.

Grow up already.

And here is your mistake again:

> 3) More densely populated = more housing units

That was the entire point, and it was simply wrong. You can ignore me all you want, that will be awesome. But I will point out bad mistakes.

And here is another!

> Just because there are more people in a borough does not mean they have more housing units.

Contrary to your claim, Brooklyn AND Queens have MORE HOUSING UNITS than Manhattan.

Brooklyn - 820,723
Queens - 710,876
Manhattan - 704,458

Be a child all you want, but you are wrong here.