Peter Schiff is an Idiot

Peter Schiff has some excellent advice.

As an investor, you can listen to various theories and choose the ones that make sense to you -- and leave the rest.

We are in the middle of the Tsunami -- Long term outcome to be determined. Think for yourself, but think!

because of the exact opposite reason that nobody listens to you.
the man is a legend. it's not just him, Gerald Celente, Jim Rogers and many others are saying the same thing.

just wait for the 'Collapse of 09' you moron

THe only collapse I see is the portfolio included a the website. Did yu even read he article? I doubt you did.

his predictions, are 6-9 months out. short term maybe a little incorrect, but long term spot on.
look at the cable (gbp/usd) today, up 60 pips from yesterday, dollar is plunging like mad.
gov will confiscate gold in the next month or so, be prepared to buy gold from his company (and perth mint)

just educate yourself, Dollar is not safe haven anymore. Treasuries will go bust, just like condos in Miami.
he has said it before, and they all continue being true.

I did read the article -- and have read both of his books -- and I read many others input ---

He governmen is not going to confsciate gold. Are you high?

*The government*

i bet you're a broker.

How many times can we go through this?

this..

http://justinspeak.com/2008/11/08/peter-schiff-is-an-idiot/

then seekingalpha...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/57919-peter-schiff-on-the-housing-market-and-the-rescue-plan

and of course Mish had to take the bait and jump in.

In the end, there have been many other "Schiff is an idiot" video clips and articles going all the way back to the early 2000s... nothing new.

Personally, Schiff was right on most calls, wrong on a few... in particular the decoupling of Asian markets and the crash of commodities.

However, that is "as of now". I still believe that in the next 5 years, Schiff will ultimately be correct, and that this current situation is just a "second chance" for those who did not listen earlier to get in.

As I have always been saying- the REAL crisis has yet to come. You think the crap that's happened until now is bad? Pleeeasee.

then...

good one Mafia,
wait for food riots, civil unrest etc in the next 2/6 months.
bank holiday, gold confiscation on the way.
stop living in the lala land of 2006 and wake up, educate yourself Alpine.

Mafia, I have not read or listened to everything by and about Schiff, but I have read a bit. I certainly give credit to him for calling a lot of this mess, the reasons for it, etc.

If I'm reading Mish correctly, he seems to accuse Schiff of being right on the tsunami, but stupendously wrong on using that view to recommend an investment strategy.

But my question to you is simple. Do you dispute Mish's that? I.e. Mish's claim that Peter Schiff's investment recommendations lost huge amounts of money, often more in percentage terms than the S&P? If so, how/why do you dispute it?

newbuyer99, the reason why i think it's inaccurate to make a call right now regarding Schiff's investment decisions is because i believe...

...that there is more to come, and that the story is not over yet.

if you joined his Fund very recently, then you would have gotten hit as of this point in time. but if you had gotten in earlier, you would have still outperformed the major indexes. it depends on the the time frame.

in my view, this one still ain't over and i believe that the climax is yet to come. until then, i think that as of right now, it is correct to say that his investment advice was bad (along with almost all other investment advice out there unless you were 100% in Gold which actually eeked out a positive yearly gain in 2008). however, it's not over yet, so too early to tell.

but his investment advice was not shorting anything, it was investing in foreign equities and commodities.

Time horizons always matter. But performance is performance. You can make the argument that someone screaming to buy S&P in early 2008 was not wrong, since stocks will eventually recover. Most people would disagree. If you had listened to Peter Schiff, you'd be down big today, worse than if you had listened to the idiot screaming to buy stocks.

Further, it's pretty hard to imagine that his recommendations (foreign equities and commodities) are likely to rally and recoup 2008's losses anytime soon, especially if your view of everything getting worse is right.

And by the way, not sure I agree with you that all investment advice was bad. Some said stay in cash, and some were. Some (like John Paulson) said short, and did, and made money.

like i said, when the story plays out, we'll know for sure. his main call was that the market/economy will crash. it ain't over yet. wait to see how it all ends and then judge if his calls that the market/economy will crash (true) and all of his related calls are wrong or right. we're still in the middle of it as the economy is crashing hard, and the market looks like it could take another nosedive.

yes, he called the market tanking. Good for him. Seriously.

But his job is giving investment advice. And his investment advice was not "short the S&P". It was long commodities and foreign equities. So saying that his main call was the market/economy crash seems pretty inaccurate.

in any case, you're not responding to my actual point, so there's no reason to continue this. And it's late anyway.

Hey i_want_to_buy_in_09 and MMafia,

There are groups of woefully uneducated high school dropouts in Montana sitting on canned goods and anti-government manifestoes looking for recruits. Suggest you two give 'em a call.

"dollar is plunging like mad" - if you consider the dollar being up against all currencies "plunging like mad", then I suppose you're right.

Where do these people come from? Can we stuff them back in their mothers' wombs? Every time gold is up 5%, these cretins come out of the woodwork with their half-thoughts. Then, gold goes down and we don't hear from them for weeks. It's all too predictable.

don't worry about them beatyerputz, they'll get hired by the gov to suppress the riots that we are going to see in the very (i mean very) near future.
Gold is up 5%? wait and see,,, well over $2k/oz in the next 12 months. Many banks have started to attract many depositors solely due to the fact that they are basing on gold, not worthless piece of paper i.e. Dollar.

just go on to youtube and search for Gerald Celente, or Jim Rogers or in fact Peter Schiff, do yourself this favor today and educate yourself before commenting crap like 'Then, gold goes down and we don't hear from them for weeks'

"Many banks have started to attract many depositors solely due to the fact that they are basing on gold, not worthless piece of paper i.e. Dollar."

Who told you this? The voices in your head? Banks where? Nigeria?

"Gold is up 5%? wait and see,,, well over $2k/oz in the next 12 months."

Wow, i_want_to_buy_in_09, you've made such a good point!! You've predicted the future with such astounding accuracy!!

I can predict the future too: some time in the next 12 months you'll get hit by a truck.

Tell you what, rather than coming onto this board and masturbating like a chimp with MMafia about where gold will be in 12 months, just don't post for the next 12 months off and then we'll see where gold is trading. If it's $2000/oz you win. If not, you lose. Deal?

newbuyer99,

"But his job is giving investment advice. And his investment advice was not "short the S&P". It was long commodities and foreign equities."

As I said earlier, as of today, you are absolutely correct in that he gave an investment advice that did not make money. I am agreeing with you here.

beatyerputz, entertaining. Exactly what this board is about and why it's entertaining. BTW, I don't masturbate with chimps. LOL.

MMafia - no, I suggested you masturbate "like" a chimp, not "with" chimps, but I'll take your denial at face value.

Okay, now that gold is falling again, will you two crawl back into the cellar? We'll ring the bell for you to come out when gold hits $1,000. Promise.

Some information on the executive order 6102 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_confiscation

These are extraordinary times if 1 year ago we spoke about Bear, Merrill and Lehman going under and the possibility of a nationalization of some of our banks you might have said I was crazy. I'm not sure what's going to happen but the next 6-12 months will be interesting.

beatyerputz, even better.

talking about daily, even weekly Gold price movements in the face of current volatility is stupid. I've played that game with spunky on this board years ago and that was enough. okay, so Gold is now down $2.10 (or 0.23%) 9:05am. And then? Who the F cares? Apparently, you?

GTFOHWTB

ok, so here's the response from Peter Schiff himself...

http://www.europac.net/newspop.asp?id=15391&from=home

and his response is.... exactly my point.... it ain't over yet.

wait till the REAL crisis comes our way. you ain't seen nothing yet. forget about the equity markets, that's old news.

the government confiscated gold in the last depression.

"yes, he called the market tanking. Good for him. Seriously. But his job is giving investment advice. "

He called this in 2006. So for two years people called him an idiot with a lousy investment strategy. I agree with MMAfia, it ain't over yet. I don't know if he'll be right in general, but I think it's too soon to call.

MMAfia, I think you might have to reassess your love of Peter Schiff. Earlier this week on Kudlow he claimed that people were wrong to look for signs of inflation in prices.

What?

His point was that signs of inflation are in the money supply. Partially true - if you count velocity, which is approximately at 0 right now. Unless the government truly "prints money," inflation with increasing unemployment is not possible. And by "printing money" I don't mean monetizing assets and increasing its balance sheet with offsetting entries, but truly "printing money" by making deposits in banks with no corresponding liability, the Latin American way.

Suze Orman tried to make a similar claim - in 2004 she said we were in a "secular bear market" and the stock market would go down. Of course disregarding all the other claims she had made that the stock market would go up, and ignoring 3 years of stellar performance. The fact is, had Lehman not been allowed to go bankrupt we would be nowhere near where we are right now. The Dow would be around 11,000.

If Peter Schiff had predicted exactly that Lehman would be allowed to go bankrupt then I'd listen to him. But I no more listen to him, Suze Orman, Marc Faber predicting 200% inflation, or Roubini, who just love the publicity they get.

i want to buy in 09,

what exactly do you want to buy in 09? A used Ford? Because I can't believe that someoen with your intelligence level can afford to buy in Manhattan.

Schiff might not be exactly right; yet. But, honestly, one can't expect him to be 100% right. No one in the investing world is 100% right about every situation. Unless you're Bernie Madoff and we've got a time machine to a year ago.

Another person I would bring up is Harry Dent. His book, The Great Boom Ahead, that was written in the early 90's and hit many of the points we had along the way. He made some HORRIBLY wrong predictions on the Dow when it came to actual numbers, but he was remarkably accurate on many, many other points.

As a matter of fact, he called the turn, to the year (2007) 15 years prior and he made all of his predictions based, not on financial wizardry, but on basic demographic changes.

To discount his theories just because, numerically, he was way off, would have been a mistake. But, as been stated, to take them without the grain of salt would have been equally, if not more, foolish. I believe the same should be afforded to Schiff.

Like another poster said; read it all, take it in, toss out the stuff you don't like. In the end, only you can make your own investment decisions. That way, there's no one else to blame for being wrong or laud for being right.

Just my .04 (adjusted for inflation)

> what exactly do you want to buy in 09? A used Ford? Because I can't believe that someoen with your
> intelligence level can afford to buy in Manhattan.

Yes, you'll have to settle for Alpine, NJ instead...

Listen, enough monkeys make enough predictions, some of 'em will turn out to be right.

If you're telling me that a portion of these guys had a portion of their predictions be hauntingly correct, I'll tell you... its called PROBABILITY.

"Just my .04 (adjusted for inflation)"

LMAO

In Alpine, NJ, if you are a rap singer, the town council confsciates your bling in order to close the deficit.

And yes, I did just say bling. I have never used that word before and do not intend to use it again!

"If you're telling me that a portion of these guys had a portion of their predictions be hauntingly correct, I'll tell you... its called PROBABILITY."

Is this the stochastic model for punditry?

Old stockbroker trick...

Pick 2 pairs of stocks that move against each other, A and B, and X and Y.

Call 100 folks. Recommend A to half, B to the other half.

Whichever proves right, call those 50 folks and suggest X to 25 and Y to the other 25.

Whichever wins, call the folks you suggested it to and offer your services. Point out your perfect track record.