Is New Yorking going into a long, deep, dark, cold Depression?

No, because New York has something everyone else wants, culture, history, excitment, energy, etc, etc. People will always want to be in New YOrk, no matter what happens with the economy.

although visitors may still visit, that does not guarantee NYC can avoid a Depression greater than what we saw in the 30's....

the question is - will the U.S. and the rest of the First World go into a deep, dark depression

No. If anyplace is going into a long deep recession it is the states that were most dependent on housing as their primary source of revenue: California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada. Those states are all dealing with huge budget shortages with no viable options.

California is in serious trouble. New York is much more diversified than most people think.

where's New Yorking?

And since none of the industries that caused our financial problems are in New York, we have nothing to worry about.

kingdeka-that is the most outrageous thing i've heard to date.

no budget shortages in NYC??? hmmmmmmmmmmmm, no loss of jobs in NYC hmmmmmmmmmmmmm yeah and the banking sector who issued the loans to all the idiots in CA, AZ, FL and NV, well i guess none of those loans were made from NY banks either.......HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

it amazes me how many people are just DUMB.

um. counciler, it is obvious that you have already formulated your opinion and you read posts that suit your opinion. where in my statement did i say that there are no budget shortages in nyc or job losses in nyc?

you are probably now the dumbest person on this website.

if you had a clue, you would know that california, florida, arizona and nevada have been in economic crisis for almost 3 1/2 years now while NY is just entering their own economic crisis.

you got all worked up over something that wasn't even said. and anyone with a clue knows that california, florida, nevada, arizona are among the hardest hit states economically - and have been.

sorry, pal, if i caused your blood pressure to approach near cardiac levels. actually, i enjoyed it. maybe someone will say something that will cause you to have the big one.

Manhattan is where the well is deepest.
Last place to get dry...first place to get wet.
Be glad you live here.

I just checked but the bottom of the well is full of mercury.... :(

It will be a protracted recession, but likely not a depression. In the depression of the 30s, GDP contracted like 25%+. Probably not going to happen again. The government is doing way too much for that to happen. That doesn't mean that what they are doing will avert a protracted recession though.

counciler posts questions that he already knows the answer to so that he can find people who agree with him in order to justify that a great depression is on the way.

julia:
"No, because New York has something everyone else wants, culture, history, excitment, energy, etc, etc. People will always want to be in New YOrk, no matter what happens with the economy."

Julia I love you like my unknown sister, but you smoked way too much of the good shit. NY has been getting its ass kicked for the last 10 years. Look at population trends, job growth trends. Yes we had a good run, but we were standing still compared to many other Cities and States. The sad part, is that there is nothing on the horizon to turn this around. Just like the U.S. Dollar has been depreciating for probably most of your life, NY has as well, on a relative basis.

"but we were standing still compared to many other Cities and States."

Like what cities? Chicago? Please don't say Chicago or else I am going to punch someone through my monitor!

alpine292:
"but we were standing still compared to many other Cities and States."

"Like what cities? Chicago? Please don't say Chicago or else I am going to punch someone through my monitor"!

No, no, mostly all the southern places. I would never live in any of them. But, many others are, they are making a decision for whatever reason, cost of living, job opportunities, I don't really care WHY, but it is happening. My point is not qualitative in nature, simply replying to Julia's silly comment about people always wanting to live in NY. The reality is maybe they "want" to, but are choosing, not to.

patient09..thank you for your love..but there have always been bad times for NYC and we've always bounced back.

You mean redneck country? YUCK!

OK cry babies...pack your bags and beat it.
Oh Oh...more space for me.
I hate the crowded over priced New York. I pine for the days of giant industrial spaces being converted to spectacular domiciles for pennies. Bring on the dirt, bring on the crime, what the hell happened to all that great graffitte?
Hey I've got a place for you...It's called Disney World.
So STFU and move on with your life.

New York's downturn is starting later and will drag on longer....I read this somewhere the other day (maybe on Barry Ritholz's blog), and it makes sense.

Many of the folks on Wall Street who got laid off are still coasting on their severance pay. People got on average three weeks of pay for every year of service, so if you worked at Citi or Wachovia or Morgan Stanley for 15 years, you got 45 weeks of pay.

So if that was your situation, and you got laid off in mid or late 08, you haven't really suffered much yet.

aren't there other people besides wall street that decides the economic future of manhattan???

NYC's decline is just beginning and will be brutal and dark.

NYC never diversified beyond financial services, and in addition to high taxes, the most explosive job growth are occurring in the south.

NYC is still dirty and grimy. And no amount of "culture" will change that.

NYC's decline is just beginning and will be brutal and dark.

NYC never diversified beyond financial services, and in addition to high taxes, the most explosive job growth are occurring in the south.

NYC is still dirty and grimy. And no amount of "culture" will change that.

Told you so. And double-posting, no less.

I don't think it will be a depression and NYC will climb out as will the rest of the country but I don't believe NYC will ever be the same again.

Wall Street has changed forever. The revenue that sustained huge bonuses was made through extreme leveraging of assets. Now all the big investment firms are gone, the last hold-outs GS and Morgan have converted to banks. Government regulatory oversight will restrict their ability to leverage. As a result, banks won't be able to afford these payouts any longer.

Consider then that Wall Street constitutes 25% of the income base in NY, and it stands to reason that the local economy is going shrink considerably with no other business sectors to take up the slack. NYC won't see these hey-days again for a long, long time.

I can't argue with the progress made by other places to live, domestic and international. However, there are people, myself included, that simply would not want to live anywhere other than NY if they can possibly help it. That doesn't mean NY won't struggle economically, and it doesn't mean NY won't see RE prices go down. But it does mean that the city will survive and thrive in the long run, at least in my opinion.