New development most likely to fail -- nominations please

why do you waste your time w/ this?

William Beaver House in FiDi.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/15-william-street-new_york

2 years ago they were carting around prospective buyers in a beaver branded Land Rover.

Still seems like a ton of inventory they need to get rid of and at $1400 they wont be moving anything soon.

Correction Beaver House is $1600+ a square foot.

I'm not sure of the exact address, but I have bad thoughts about the Toll Bros. development at I believe 303 E. 33rd. Also no sales, also averaging about $1300 psf, arguably a slightly better location and a green building, but not promising.

Tempo on E. 23rd also seems doomed, especially since the developer paid a huge amount for the land, so doesn't have that many options. The Gramercy Starck bulding was more than that block needed at this time.

chelsea enclave will never sell at its absurd current pricing and the land lease doesn't help either. the prime on 14th street is also probably going to need massive cuts to move.

Hobbes1949 -- Two reasons:

1) Distressed sellers will push prices down -- knowing who is distressed and how distressed they are gives an idea of how far down prices will go.

2) I'm curious (as I am sure others are) what happens at various points if a condo developer cannot sell units -- what happens if they can't sell 50% or 75% etc. Can they convert to rentals in a market where rental prices are falling swiftly?

As a prospective buyer, I'm not looking for the exact bottom, but some indications that prices will stop falling. Lots of unsold inventory does not seem to suggest that prices will stop falling anytime soon.

yes thank you jmkeenan. another poster was talking about distressed properties on a different thread and i expressed interest in him listing them. after emailing him he turned out to be a broker just trying to drum up business. i think knowing who is the most desperate will help those of us who are on here actually looking for apartments

this article is informative
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/developers-best-laid-plans-stymied-by-recession

What is the risk to the buyer of an individual unit if a building "fails"? Could someone who knows list the risks? thanks

(for example: Is there some risk of the occupying minority of a building with unsold units facing high common charges and taxes? Is the risk in reality more that the unocccupied units go rental, which I suppose could have some negative effect on the price of for-sale units? Is there ever a risk that certain common areas or floors or units or whatever will not be fully complete even after some units have been occupied?)

I know a building that went to market in 1988, and sold only 50% through the downturn. The bank took over the building in 1992 and it chose to rent out and sell out the remaining units over time. In its neighborhood, most buildings declined in value around 30%, but the values at this building dropped 40-45% for sold units. Eventually, the building traded as expected. People who bought in 93, 94 and 95 got incredibly good deals, although that generally was the case all over Manhattan. My point is that the buyers in this building had an additional discount of 10-15%.

Manhattan House. That ship is HUGE and sinking.

Apthorp. WAAAAAAY too late to the party.

20 Pine. Its already failed.

nyc10022, so true. what's the other swig devel on Broad? is it 25? Isis, Georgica on the UES don't seem to be in the pink of health either.

well, these are only the beginning.

In market crashes, seeing 10 or 20% of projects fail isn't that unusual...

How about the Rushmore...what are your thoughts? Do you think that Extell has enough deep pockets to sustain this downturn?

I thought rushmore hit well before the crash.... so I'd imagine they've already gotten some sales.

Any idea what percent is sold?

I think about 55 per cent

20 Pine. It is not likely to fail. It ALREADY has failed!

Windows on 123rd Street and 2280 Frederick Douglass Boulevard in central Harlem.

Azure, although I haven't any real evidence. BUT, I can't believe I overlooked the Lenox Grand or the Grand Lenox, whatever it might be. This sales team from Corcoran seems to have f'd up every building they've had, and this building is DEATH.

William Beaver will be the poster child for failure focused on 20 something Wall Street tools
20 Pine will be for investor flippers
95 Wall will be a perpetual ghost town, but actually won't fail. Just be depressing living there
Tempo and Dwell on 23rd Street will suffer long-term slow slow declines but won't actually "fail"
200 Chambers lower floors that are selling for major increases won't for too much longer - they sold at discounts and will return to discounts
Older developments 2004, 2005 developments in new areas like far west Soho will become new retroactive failures, like 505 Greenwich
The NYU-recent grad Toll Bros. development on 3rd and 13th will fail because the quality was so poor and will deteriorate
Anything on Long Island City
One Brooklyn Bridge Park

Graceline Court in Harlem. Hideous building, cheaply built with horrible diagonal support beams running through the middle of units on the upper floor to support the cantilever over the mosque next door.

William Beaver

> 20 Pine. It is not likely to fail. It ALREADY has failed!

Alpine, you and your reading comp again.

The only other mention of 20 pine was... "20 Pine. Its already failed."

No wonder why you think the market isn't down...

Does anyone know about the current status of Hudson Hill and the Sheffield?

No one mentioned any developments in WillyB or Dumbo. Does SOLD and OCCUPIED have anything to do with developments failing?

I thought the only ones buying in the Sheffield are members of the Hearst family . . .

Does anybody on this message board actually live in any of these failed buildings? The reason I ask is because I'm a reporter doing a story about disgruntled buyers in new construction, and am looking for people who wouldn't mind speaking to me on the record. My email is maxgrosstheauthor@gmail.com. Let me know!

I would be surprised if anyone who purchased would discuss for a story.... It's one thing to judge a building when you're not a purchaser.. but when you end up buying you want the unit to appreciate in value... you don't want to slander the building you're invested in now financially.

And with the internet today I would wonder if the story could come to haunt you when you went to re-sell... everyone googles everything today.

anything in Williamsburg has got to be top of the list

What ever happened to Tribeca Space?

Graceline Court on 116th Street.

Anything on Pitt Street! Actually, those River Ridge condos are probably going to end up as one of the biggest debacles in the city.

River Ridge looks like it's all either closed or in contract... They might be a failure of design/location but it seems to have sold decently.

bjw you were owned within 6 minutes of your post!

212, take a closer look at how many have closed. I believe I saw 2 or 3. And look at the closing price on 3G compared to the ask. Huge drop, not including who knows what other concessions (closing costs, parking, paying common charges, etc.). There are also a few units with rental listings. I don't think it'll fail completely, but I just don't see them doing well. It's not a particularly attractive building, somewhat poorly put together, and has a pretty miserable location in a fringe area. The fact that it's already been on the market so long really hurts it as well - any economic recovery won't be in time to really help out here.

even the shittiest location in Manhattan will out sell the best location in Williamsburg.

petrfitz, you were owned within 3!

ok how many available units are there in Williamsburg? how many undeveloped unit spaces are there in williamsburg? how many toxic chemical waste plums rung through williamsburg? how often does gang violence erupt in williamsburg?

why do people move to williamsburg? because they cant afford anywhere in manhatttan

BJW.. ok you seem to really hate the bldg. I still think that it's sold enough to not fail.

The Edge, Northside Piers, Schaefer Landing, Viridian, NForth, MET 129, 80 MET and the bldg bjw2103 mortgages in. A bldg can be 45% sold but only 10% occupied.

petrfitz,

1. Actually available units in Williamsburg? According to Streeteasy, 667. I don't think this is incredibly accurate of course, but I do believe it's far closer than some of the insanely inflated numbers I've seen in some places. That said, I don't see why this is so bad. Available housing is a good thing. More people in the area will just ensure that the amenities that are already here will thrive and expand, and housing won't become prohibitively expensive.

2. Undeveloped unit spaces? Not sure what that means, but I'd guess you're referring to projects in progress? There's a lot, for sure. Those that are well-financed (and that's certainly not everyone) will be ok. There will be some projects that will suffer though. Unfortunately, I think this will really hurt the eastern stretches of the neighborhood (past the Lorimer stop, and areas south of Broadway, which weren't that great to begin with).

3. Toxic chemical waste plums that ring? Creative imagination, brother! I don't know what that means, but I do know you love to propagate this myth that Williamsburg is a huge toxic site, when the facts just don't bear that out. Yes, there was an oil spill in Greenpoint years ago, yes there are still oil tanks buried in some select spots in Williamsburg (see Warehouse 11) where the clean-up process wasn't made public enough for me to feel like buying there would be a good idea, but you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

4. Gang violence erupting? What, you read a Curbed piece once a few months ago about an incident on the southside? Maybe they heard you were coming around.

5. People move to Williamsburg because they want to. There are cheaper neighborhoods in Manhattan. Trust me, many people I know in the area could easily afford Manhattan. And did.

212, I don't hate it. I just think it's a pretty good example of that "irrational overexuberance" people mumble about when talking about the insanity of the real estate bubble in this city.

The winner is the Viridian.

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090218/FREE/902189969

Hmm, this is a tough call, Viridian may be the winner, but I think 225 Rector needs to be considered as well. Perhaps rector wins in the failed conversion category.

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/225-rector-place-s-common-fund-depleted

Anyone who, in this barely alive market, declares that "Available housing is a good thing" is playing dumb with the law of supply vs demand. I can assure you that if developers in Williamsburg could ask the tooth fairy for one and only one wish for 2009, it would be to have less supply, not more. They're going rental because nobody wants to buy; they have 6ms to 1yr left.

i own in williamsburg and feel like if all the condos that don't sell go rental, it'll be good for the current owners in already completed/full buildings because more people will keep the local business thriving. i'm looking very long term here, but have a feeling that any renters will possibly want to stay in the area and buy later. in my building, there are several owners who've been in williamsburg for years. it's a great neighborhood because it's got tons to do, and it's extremely convenient for access to manhattan.

River Ridge looks like a dog. I don’t know how many units there are, but there are 6 floors and lines A-I, so it could be 50+. There are only 4 closings, and the 9 in contract are all that’s showing on the Elliman site as well, so it doesn’t look like StreetEasy’s just missing the info. If anything, it looks like the listings have been pulled for some reason. Elliman was already the 2nd broker, maybe a third's being lined up. There are also 2 for rent. Were 2 of the closers investors? Ugh.

My vote is for the Copper Building on Ave B at 13th St. It’s only a few block from the park and a couple blocks from nice restaurants and better blocks, but the immediate area looks like the first season of NYPD Blue. The back of the building is surrounded by projects where some drug dealers murdered another last year (sorry for the Rufus bait) and even has terraces overlooking them. It’s the exact kind of place people would convince themselves about in a real estate frenzy but avoid in a downturn. Demolotion of the previous building happened in a single week and construction started in earnest, but seems to have stalled.

"Anyone who, in this barely alive market, declares that "Available housing is a good thing" is playing dumb with the law of supply vs demand. I can assure you that if developers in Williamsburg could ask the tooth fairy for one and only one wish for 2009, it would be to have less supply, not more. They're going rental because nobody wants to buy; they have 6ms to 1yr left."

Trompiloco, I'm not playing "dumb." From the perspective of developers, it is not a good thing, but from the perspective of a resident, I think it's great, even though it certainly means my home won't appreciate like it would have during the run-up. As for going rental, only a few have gone that route so far. I think we'll see more of it, but don't be so quick to dismiss everything as going rental.

what banks are going to give mortgages and refi's on those willimasburg condos that went rental? most banks even in the good days wouldnt write a mortgage on a building with less than 75% owner occupied. IF you are an owner sitting in a building that went mostly rental - like pretty much ALL Williamsburg buildings have and are going, good luck ever refinancing or trying to get a new mortgage.

Brilliant buy there on that gang infested toxic waste dump. Hoboken is a better buy than williamsburg. So is Jersey City come to think of it.

petrfitz, you're joking, right? Every building is different, but you can sure bet that banks will give you a mortgage if you can afford it and the building is less that 75% owner occupied. It's happened before and will continue to do so. And that has nothing to do with Williamsburg - these rules apply to new developments throughout the city. It is also plainly wrong to state that so many buildings have gone rental. You say things without backing them up at all.

As for the "toxic waste dump" myth, here's some actual data. And note, northside Williamsburg is considered part of Greenpoint for these purposes. Among the very lowest cancer rates:
http://www.health.state.ny.us/statistics/cancer/registry/docs/volume1nycneighborhoods.pdf

BJW - you obviiously know nothing about mortgage lending:

1 - in the good old days banks would set higher mortgages rates for buildings that were not greater than 75% owner occupied, many banks wouldnt even lend to these types of buildings.

2 - now there is a general rule in financing that banks will no longer go near buildings that are not at least 75% owner occupied. The reasoning - if more than a quarter of the building is owned by investors... then they are much more likely to walk away from building through foreclosure then a group of people who consider these units their homes.

its a simple matter of rish analysis on the banks.

you are funny "its happened before and will continue to do so" so you are saying that today's banking environment is going to continue the same way as it has in the past???? Please keep talking you only prove that you are well above your head in most of these threads.,

Wow, a prime tool battle!

nyc10022, thanks for the input, brother.

petrfitz, banks are certainly more risk averse now than they were, but they will lend. By your rule, no building would ever become owner-occupied. Somebody has to get in first, and they can't all be all-cash buyers.

there is a difference between a building that is new and has an offering plan to become 100% owner occupied versus a building that trashed its offering plan and nopw has plans to be majority renter occupied for the next fews years.

you cant be that dumb? maybe its the toluene in your drinking water...

Well, petr, there is a difference between owner-occupied and rental buildings, but smart buyers will avoid those that have converted to rentals.

Correction: construction continues at the Copper Building. Part of the exterior wall is up on the 13th St. side.