Should I sell now, rent, then buy-back?

My opinion:

If you're going to buy a similar unit as the one you have now, I wouldn't bother. You already missed the peak, which makes timing the market that much more difficult. Sure, the market is likelier to go down than up or flat, but there are no guarantees, and in the meantime, you're going through the hassle of moving twice (as opposed to not at all), plus paying lots of transactions costs.

If you're going to move and/or upgrade in the near future anyway, then your plan is not such a bad one.

If you like the property, stay put and enjoy it. Attempting to time the market is a fool's game. Plus, you missed the peak. A friend tried to sell a similar property on E. 22 off Broadway and finally ended up renting it. Very tough to move property right now. If you need to move in the next 2 years, it's a different story, probably better to sell. Otherwise, if it makes you happy to come home, enjoy it.

No, I would NOT sell, rent, and buy back for 2 reasons:

1. You missed the peak.

2. It is VERY expensive to do when you facotr in the transaction costs. To sell and buy back is going to cost about 10% of your property's value (realtor commission, moving, closing, transfer tax, etc.)

only if you think the 10% transaction costs will be mitigate by, for instance, locking in capital gains tax free.

Factors for your decision that only you can answer:
1) Are you planning to upgrade or move? Or will you buy back a similar property?
2) Do you love where you live?
3) Are you okay with moving twice?
4) When did you buy your place?
5) Do you have a family to consider in this?
6) How's your financial situation?

The way you described your place makes it seem like you love it. I think that is pretty rare, for a renter or owner to love their home. You should probably try to enjoy your place, especially if you're planning to re-buy in one year. You'd have to move twice, pay broker commissions possibly three times, and spend a lot of time looking around for quite easily a worse situation. It just seems like too much work for too little gain. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

What you SHOULD have done was sell a year ago, when the market was at its peak and CLEARLY headed lower (there were thousands of posts on Streeteasy at that time about the impending collapse in NY...this was obvious to even a very very unperceptive blind dead person seated 500 miles from Manhattan facing the wrong way with a hefty bag over his head).

If the after-tax, after-transaction cost proceeds from a potential sale of your condo exceeds what you can buy it back at in two years (think 60%-70% of it's current value), you'd be better off selling and renting. Otherwise, sit tight and enjoy the ride down!)

You also need to understand that you are (hopefully) continuing to pay down a mortgage. 3+ years of paying down a mortgage is not wasted time at all. Thats 1/10 of the life of the mortgage and all things considered a decent duration. Why would you try to sell incur all those transaction costs wait it out for a few years and then on a whim hope to get a same property that you live in for maybe $100k cheaper. Your buy and sell transaction costs would negate the savings. And on top of that you would hit the reset button on a 30 year mortgage having to start it all over again.

Continue to focus on staying in your place and paying down your mortgage.

Admiral said: What you SHOULD have done was sell a year ago, when the market was at its peak and CLEARLY headed lower (there were thousands of posts on Streeteasy at that time about the impending collapse in NY...this was obvious to even a very very unperceptive blind dead person seated 500 miles from Manhattan facing the wrong way with a hefty bag over his head).

Why are the insults necessary?

I would only sell if you were planning on moving ANYWAY, such as out of the city, to a larger apartment, etc. Otherwise stay put.

If you presumably are smart enough to have earned enough money to have bought your current apartment, why aren't you smart enough to know what to do now?

Bimmer, sell now. Rent for a year and then buy in 8-12 months once the market bottoms. if you would like to discuss specifics email me at avandermije@gmail.com. It is better to sell and cry than not sell at all.

You should sell it now a non-profit organization for half of what you originally paid, write off the loss as a tax deductible donation, then fly to Chile and invest the money in a llama racing contest, if you win, fly back in two weeks and purchase a small fruit stand and work undercover for the NYPD narcotics dept, except instead of tipping them off to a drug deal you learn about at the fruit stand you should arrange for a fake drug bust with contacts you made in the world of underground Chilean llama racing. You score 100 kilos of sweet lady H, plus guns. Sell them on the black market out in Brighton Beach to Vory v Zakon. Take you profits (which should have quintupled by now, if you were paying attention) and purchase a 250 sf studio co-op. Live there for 17 years with wall to wall red carpeting. While you are living there, open up a comic book store that caters only to Romanian immigrants. The rest of your money should be invest in 1 year cds, and re-invested in penny stocks. When 17 years are up, you should move back into your old apartment. You will have made a 35 pecent profit and have many wonderful stories to tell your grandchildren, the FBI, and the IRS.

I agree with the overall sentiment. Per urbandigs, we're already down 20%. The crash is well in.

The likelihood of you being able to sell high enough, and buy back low enough, taking into account your search, closing costs, moving costs, bla bla bla.

Timing the market isn't that easy to start when you have 2 transactions to worry about, but given the bubble already popped, there might not be a lot of room to "profit" from the timing.

don't underestimate the potential for llama profits in as a countercyclical...

"Why are the insults necessary?"

Because there are still some on this board who don't realize that teh country sits on the verge of a depression, that NYC in particular has seen it's number one industry eviscerated, and that we are on the verge of a 50% decline in real estate prices, similar to Tokyo in the 1990s (actually they declined 75% but I like to be conservative in my forecasts so i know i'll achieve them).

Point being, if the question is "should I sell now?" the answer is SELL, SELL, SELL!!!! And if the question is "Should I buy now" the answer has to be an insult - ARE YOU AN IDIOT???

I'm just helping people to preserve some wealth. I practice what i preach - sold real estate and stocks a year ago.

ok, seriously, anyone here who tells you to sell now and then gives out their e-mail address is obvivously a realtor looking to get you to list with them. Seriously, are you realtors that desperate? Come on, I heard Best Buy is hiring... Minimum wage is better than no money.

Alpine, aren't you trying to sell?

No, I am not. For the 2,908th time, I rented my house out.

alpine292 - you said you were a seller 7 days ago:

"alpine292
7 days ago
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No, it's not a joke. I am a seller and I can assure you that asking prices of properties I am interested in have a major affect on what I price my house at. And many other sellers have the same mindset. Nobody wants to be the first one to drop their price. LOts of sellers are relucatant to drop their prices because, if they do, there is always the chance that everyone else will follow. And the last thing the seller wants to do is shoot themself in the foot."

So alpine, are you full of shit or did you pull your listing in the last week? If so, I'd be curious to hear why (why you pulled your listing, not why you're full of shit. Well, on second thought, both are fine).

Thanks for all the helpful and thoughtful responses folks! I think the answers have been pretty much unanimous - stay put, hang tight on the (dramatic?) ride down and enjoy the apartment in the meantime. I was never planning to flip, it was always a long-term 10 year investment, but a broker put some ideas into my head...

BTW, Admiral - no need for the insults. Yes, I saw the market crash coming a while back as well (same reason I was net short in my stock market portfolio and ended up +32% in 08), but I did not pay much attention to the ins and outs of the Manhattan condo market. Clearly, I missed the RE peak - and as many have correctly pointed out, you cannot time the markets perfectly and in a very high transaction cost business, that's important.

Thanks for the advice.

"I think the answers have been pretty much unanimous - stay put, hang tight "

LOL. Dumbest answer you could've reached. And you wonder why people insult you.

In 18 months, your condo will be worth about HALF of what it is worth now. You know what you should do then? Sell it. To me...

"Per urbandigs, we're already down 20%. The crash is well in."

YAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!! Only 40-50% more to go!!!!! (And we'd still end up short of where Tokyo did in the 90's, and that recession was local not global, and their finance sector did not see utter destruction...but whatever, i'm sure New York will do better, somehow...)

I'm still curious why alpine292 said "for the 2,098th time" that he's not a seller, when in fact just last week he said he is a seller.

'cuz Streeteasy is fullof liars?

And for what it's worth, I've also observed that Alpine is one of the worst.

This is not a thread about me. I could explain my comments, but I am not going to because I have more important things to do than answer gotcha questions.

Yes, alpine is much better off spending his time going to another thread and making things up there...

"I could explain my comments, but I am not going to"

Because you can't.

"because I have more important things to do than answer gotcha questions."

"More important things to do"? More important things than posting on Streeteasy at 1pm on a Sunday? Wait, that's exactly what you're doing!

"Answer gotcha questions"? Or is it really "display any credibility"?

this trade may still be good. While clearly you gave back some of your upside. estimate selling costs and fees.taxes at about 10%. Good luck to you.

bimmer- It sounds like you are trying to play Russian roulette with your apartment- don't let a broker who's looking to make a commission put dumb ideas in your head (& this is coming from a broker). The only way your "strategy" makes sense is if you bought the apt long enough ago that you'll be able to sell at a profit after factoring all the closing costs 3 times (when you orig. bought the apt, selling it now & then re-buying) & if you find a rental (for a great price ) that you love as much as you love your condo.
Figure out the #'s & decide if it's worth it. (I have a spreadsheet I can send you that has all the formulas for closing costs, profit etc.)
Also realize that it will be harder to get a mortgage in 12-18 months than it was when you orig. bought your apt. If you already have a mortgage it might make more sense to stay put.
Just to clarify something that you mentioned in your post- banks are willing to give mortgages with 25% down, not 30%-40%. (stop listening to the doomsday conspirators who don't have any hard evidence/data to back up their comments).
sophia.anzaroot@elliman.com