Market to hit 6000 handle?

Actually, if the DJI falls an additional 100 or so points, it will be a decade low.

The financial sector is already trading at levels not seen since the early 1990s. Manhattan commercial RE companies are trading at 1998-2000 levels as we speak & falling.

Ugly stuff.

S&P, on a weekly basis, is already back to 1997 being below 800. Next support is S&P 741; then, who knows if it dips below that. Probably the mid-600's.

Passengers this is your captain, smoke em if you got em cause we're going down

For the record, technical analysis - "support levels", "break out levels", etc. - is a complete and utter joke. Market technician? Please. Put the E-Trade candle stick chart away and get a real job. Past trends are in no way indicative of future performance. Technical analysis is a pseudo science and (incorrectly) assumes that markets aren't efficient, and that stock prices do not readily absorb new information within minutes. Think Apple is "trending" in certain direction? Think that the stock will "find support" at a certain level? Watch that theory turn into a pile of shit within minutes of CNBC reporting that Steve Jobs is AIDS.

"Steve Jobs is AIDS"

That explains so much.

Please keep up the dow 6000 talk. There more there is, the less likely it will actually be.

nyc10022, given the last year, I would be afraid to assign probabilities to anything.

individuals will need to face a harsh reality...their apartment isn't worth the same as their neighbor who sold in the last two years..that will take more than the dow falling to 6k.

"Please keep up the dow 6000 talk. There more there is, the less likely it will actually be."

I hope no one is daft enough to believe talking about the Dow on Streeteasy will actually affect it.

get a grip, btw.

Separately, best headline I've heard today... "analysts see few signs of a bottom". More where that came from!

From Krugman today: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/nationalization-fears/

"So everyone agrees that fears of nationalization are driving bank stocks down. That’s probably true, but those fears have to be carefully interpreted.

We are not talking about fears that leftist radicals will expropriate perfectly good private companies. At least since last fall the major banks — certainly Citi and B of A — have only been able to stay in business because their counterparties believe that there’s an implicit federal guarantee on their obligations. The banks are already, in a fundamental sense, wards of the state.

And the market caps of these banks did not reflect investors’ assessment of the difference in value between their assets and their liabilities. Instead, it largely — and probably totally — reflected the “Geithner put”, the hope that the feds would bail them out in a way that handed a significant windfall gain to stockholders.

What’s happening now is a growing sense that the federal government, in return for rescuing these institutions, will demand the same thing a private-sector white knight would have demanded — namely, ownership."

nyc10022..once again you have no idea what you're spewing on streeteasy...but I'll defend you right to make studid comments.

Julia, you telling me I don't know what I'm talking about is a complement.

And before you call ANYONE "studid", you might want to think for a second about how folks generally think you the biggest regular moron on this board.

Why the hate against julia? I've disagreed with her on things but I've never seen her to be obnoxious or nasty like some other regular commenters.

nyc...i have no idea what people on this site "think" but I do know most respect and admire my posts. i can't say the same about you...you're unkind and your postings have no merit. I always come up with wonderful posts that people learn from. sorry!!!

"Why the hate against julia? I've disagreed with her on things but I've never seen her to be obnoxious or nasty like some other regular commenters."

You mean, like, uh...

"nyc10022..once again you have no idea what you're spewing on streeteasy...but I'll defend you right to make studid comments."

I can't say thats anything but obnoxious or nasty....

> but I do know most respect and admire my posts.
...
> I always come up with wonderful posts that people learn from.

ROTLF.

Wow, you are in delusion city, babe! (then again, we knew that already)

nyc10022: dat's cold.

Julia, someone posted a junior 1 bdrm on the UES for $249K. I gave you a shout out.

> nyc10022: dat's cold.

Dwell, I don't disagree, but if Julia can't take it, girl shouldn't try and dish it out...

Agreed, julia's done nothing wrong but be genuine in her own observations. Doesn't mean I always agree, but she's respectful. Unlike some people here. As for her last comment, you really think that's so bad after you go after her as relentlessly as you do? People will stick up for themselves at some point. Get a clue.

get a grip, hall monitor.

Julia went after me with no provocation. But, your hypocrisy never surprises me, tool!

"People will stick up for themselves at some point. Get a cluee"

Some day, you should attempt to understand your own posts...

dwell, dwell what and where a junior 1 for $249...bjw..i think i'm in love you posting was perfect towards me and many others..

dwell
2 days ago

310 E. 63rd @ $249: Paging Julia!!!!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7617-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-east-side-edition?page=2

Sorry julia: it's an alcove studio w/ highish mntnce, but, check it out anyway.

Julia, there's a new listing in Licoln Towers for a larger alcove studio in the mid-300s. Not your dream apartment, but things are getting closer.

I'm happy to be hall monitor. We're not in junior high any longer. Julia went after you with no provocation? Are you delusional?

dwell...it looked great but the maintenance was $1600..aboutready...the alcoves in lincoln towers are coming down but i hate how they look from the outside..i would definitely live there if the prices went way down...hall monitors were always great people..thanks for the shout out.

Julia: Mntnc is high in that bld, but did you see the 400 sf studio for $179K? But, mntnc is high

nyc10022, you are a classic loser. Just embrace it and relax.

i still think Julia is sexy!

Bringing back to topic of the thread... I agree that assigning probabilities is difficult, but I would certainly bet even money that Dow dips below 7000 at some point this year.

Market is going below 6000. Global imbalances are in disorder.

Great!

HimWhoKnows, if you are so omniscient, can you tell us what happens to folks "invested" in cash? Or municipal bonds (like Paul Krugman, the Nobel Laureate for Economics). Any thoughts there?

"I'm happy to be hall monitor. We're not in junior high any longer. Julia went after you with no provocation? Are you delusional?"

"hall monitors were always great people"

"nyc10022, you are a classic loser. Just embrace it and relax."

Bingo. Glad that others get it.

As for the Dow, I still think 6000 is unlikely. The big downward swings were in October/November, and we haven't recovered from them yet, but the decreased (relative) volatility has been a good sign at least. If we had another large and sudden drop, I think you'd see a fair amount of panic.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPvaYKTd90pQ&refer=home

"Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its lowest close in 12 years, as concern that the deepening recession will erode earnings offset the government’s pledge to give more capital to banks. "

The day is not over, but we're down again today. I think 6000 is entirely possible.

"The day is not over, but we're down again today. I think 6000 is entirely possible."

I think the bank chain reaction is just waiting to occur. Nationalization, on a global scale, is the only way to stop it from going critical, making Lehman collapse look like a holiday. US and Europe, and perhaps Asia, will have to nationalize aggressively. If that doesn't happen, it's a global depression unlike anything seen before.

"The day is not over, but we're down again today. I think 6000 is entirely possible."

I think the bank chain reaction is just waiting to occur. Nationalization, on a global scale, is the only way to stop it from going critical, making Lehman collapse look like a holiday. US and Europe, and perhaps Asia, will have to nationalize aggressively. If that doesn't happen, it's a global depression unlike anything seen before.

> Bingo. Glad that others get it.

Wow, bjw, you really are a tool aren't you?

You play hall monitor all day, and then you're as much of a schmuck as anyone else. You can draw up as much support from your imaginary friends as you want, but you are still a tool.

Seriously, you are a complete loser.

You can post as much as you want, and hall monitor all you want, you can continue being the biggest hypocrite on the planet, you can defend your bubble purchase all you want, but, sorry, you are a complete loser.

"I'm happy to be hall monitor. We're not in junior high any longer. Julia went after you with no provocation? Are you delusional?"

Nope, you are. Up there for all the putzes to see.

Hall monitor all you want, you are WRONG.

"I'm happy to be hall monitor. We're not in junior high any longer. Julia went after you with no provocation? Are you delusional?"

Nope, you are. Up there for all the putzes to see.

Hall monitor all you want, you are WRONG.

If you guys are going to try and play hall monitor, at least don't be stupid enough to get it backward.

"We're not in junior high any longer."

Yet you both continue to act like you are... interesting

Doctor, it appears we've hit a nerve. Seriously though, take it easy. Not sure what calling me names (and unimaginatively, at that) over the internet is accomplishing.

Can't say I'm surprised, another dose of hypocrisy from the loser.

> Doctor, it appears we've hit a nerve.

Wow, and not you are completely unoriginal, too. Any of my other lines you'd like to borrow.

What are you, pee wee herman?

Wow, bjw, you are a loser. So much of your time spent on me.

Thats pretty pathetic.

(but understandable.... we all know about your "investment" and why you'd want to change the subject)

> The big downward swings were in October/November, and we haven't recovered from them yet

Not only have we not recovered from those lows, we've surpassed them.

Sounds like the folks who rationalized how NYC RE wouldn't decline.

Wasn't aware that you coined the "nerve" line. Pleased to meet you.

"Not only have we not recovered from those lows, we've surpassed them."

I don't know how you read a "rationalization" in that - I certainly did not imply that we haven't gone even lower. You're grasping at straws. Chill out, brother.

> Chill out, brother.

You are a hypocrite tool, I 'aint your brother.

> Wasn't aware that you coined the "nerve" line. Pleased to meet you.

On top of you being a lousy comedian. Stick to...

oh wait, you really aren't good at anything else.

nyc10022, you have mastered one thing, calling people names. your blood pressure must be off the charts.

Wow, you are in delusion city, babe!

I've been to delusion city...many times.
In the 70's to cop nickle bags on 14th street...cat-nip
In the 80's to the Palladium to cop a feel...home alone
In the 90's to get on board the tech bubble...that train left without me
In the 00's to score some RE at a fair price...I'm in delusion city now...
But, the fog is lifting...sharpen your teeth...reality bites!
Bite back!

Dow 6000?
WRT RE...who cares?
RE is a much truer supply and demand model.
30 individual stocks are not.

> 30 individual stocks are not.

Then just look at the 500. Same result... toilet.

"Market is going below 6000. Global imbalances are in disorder."

Or maybe the world won't implode..
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atgwohr1NWTs&refer=home

AND more housing declines announced today.

Great day to be a renter!