Who laughed when I said....

I did. Now I'm crying. No actually I thought dow 5000 and s&p at 500.

"Manhattan prices to fall 50% from peak"?

I'm still waiting for that one, BTW.

high end is close. Give it another 8-12 months and remember that you have to wait for discovery to reveal itself

Steve, you can't take credit for it... you quickly recanted and then tried to explain what "headed" meant.

You QUICKLY corrected yourself and said it wouldn't be happening.

and, in fact, you got bullish at 9k... AFTER that.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7403-dow-closes-above-9000-for-the-first-time-in-2-months

So, the answer is me... I'm still laughing about your 6500 claims....

It gets better...

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve 3 months ago.

And, after that...

"Stock indices rise to Dow 11,000 as the effects of the write-downs wear off, and all the new liquidity added into the economy takes hold."

Seriously, Steve, you have to stop with the stock market calls. You've been about as wrong as humanly possible there.

"Steve, you can't take credit for it... you quickly recanted and then tried to explain what "headed" meant.

"You QUICKLY corrected yourself and said it wouldn't be happening."

I never said it wouldn't happen. Ever. I said that I had never said that the Dow would HIT 6500, but rather that that is where it was headed. And it is.

In fact, I specifically said, "Wait. The game's not over yet," or something to that effect.

And I'm still bullish long-term. Still think Dow will hit 11,000, though maybe not as soon as I originally said, which was year-end. Things are getting worse than I thought they would.

Fess up, nyc. Admit you were wrong, and I was right.

Uk, ok...

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve 3 months ago.

after that, trying to claim you predicted 6500...

man, thats the funniest one of the year...

I love it... when you were WRONG about 6500, you didn't predict it. Headed toward was defined to just mean direction.

Then we actually hit 6500, and suddently you completely change the meaning of the term (again!) and trying to take credit for it.

Face it Steve, you predicted up AND down, and then you even denied your down prediction.... right before it went down.

I admit it... you were wrong. About as wrong as one person can get.

Here it is....

"nyc - you're lame on this. "heading for" does not mean "will arrive." Your ridicule is misplaced. You will have to ridicule the Oxford English Dictionary, whence the definition comes."

"In another thread I made it clear that I did not PREDICT that we would reach there"

Steve argued and argued how he DIDN'T predict 6500... and here is is trying to take credit for the prediction!

Next Steve is going to tell us that because he said the dow could go to 6500, and 11,000, he's predicted correctly at any value between the two!

"Will the real fool please stand up?"

ironic....

Ah, nyc - too bad you are constitutionally incapable of admitting that I was right - we were headed down. I specifically said it again, after we broke through the November 20 support level a few weeks ago.

I'm still not saying that we will actually hit 6,500 - I don't know what the final number will be. I believe we're in a bottoming process (which I've also said before) that is contingent on some sort of a resolution for the banks. If it's not a satisfactory solution then we will break below 6,500.

I've never denied my position, I've always held by it. All I deny is your interpretation of it.

I think you'll soon be headed the way of spunky and all the other bulls...going, going, GONE!

stevejhx, you are trying to take claim for Manhattan RE 50% because of an article in the NY Times about condo auctions that MIGHT happen but haven't yet, and some of the units are THOUGHT to be sold for 40-45% below peak pricing?

If that qualifies as validating a prediction, then your standards have hit rock bottom.

I'll give you kudos when 50% below peak is the standard for all real estate in Manhattan, not a very few select few properties that haven't even transacted yet.

I think your praise of yourself is very premature and makes you look desperate for validation.

> too bad you are constitutionally incapable of admitting that I was right

I've said you were right on RE.

I'm just embarassed by your attempts to claim being right on this one. You have probably the absolute worst record for stock calls on this board. You called down before the bailout bump, then called up after it (and went down). You reversed your calls so many times, and usually the wrong way.

You are just digging yourself deeper!

> I think you'll soon be headed the way of spunky and all the other bulls

OK, steve, now you're just an idiot. You're calling me a BULL?

Wow, I supported you in numerous other areas.

Here, thought, you are just plain embarassing!

The Dow is going to go down at some point....and then up at another point.

RE in NYC is going to go down now and then back up in the future.

I am vindicated.

What a patheric life.

-tic

YEA STEVE!

(Part 42...)

Just remember, it's all about...

despite his fudge on the dow, steve is still the man of streeteasy

BTW why don't steve and NYC just make out already?

"The Dow is going to go down at some point....and then up at another point.
RE in NYC is going to go down now and then back up in the future.
I am vindicated."

LOL.

Waverly is the new Steve!

cleanslate
about 8 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse

"Manhattan prices to fall 50% from peak"?

I'm still waiting for that one, BTW.

Cleanslate you've got to be kidding if you don't think the bottom will drop out of New York RE. Look at the carnage being inflicted at every sector of the economy....and Manhattan real estate will still hold up? You ain't seen nothing yet!

I give you full credit stevehjx

A Generation Of Destruction

Throwing money at the problem and propping up greedy banks is like trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it.
By Barton Biggs | NEWSWEEK

I don't believe that an even more dramatic economic or stock-market apocalypse is nigh, but many, many wise people do, and I must admit I am more worried now than I was a few weeks ago. I have attended two large conferences of global investors in the last few weeks, and it was clear that at both more than half of the participants believed that the Obama administration has stumbled badly, that its programs are too little and too late and that the president's halo is disappearing.

Since late last week, confidence indexes in the U.S., Europe and Japan that had seemed to level out were once again showing growing consumer concern about the economy. The most highly regarded economists and strategists now expect a long, deep, global recession, with stock markets falling another 20 to 30 percent. A vocal hard core warns of years of hard times comparable to the Great Depression at worst or the Japanese lost decade at best.

Here is their argument. The world's governments and central banks are implementing stimulus programs that have fatal flaws. The synchronized collapse in global financial demand was caused by the reckless, speculative expansion of money and credit, and now we are in a vicious supercycle of liquidating debt such as the world has never known. Throwing money at the problem and propping up the greedy banks that created the speculation is, as Jim Walker of Asianomics says, like trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it. The result will be an even bigger, more searing fire. Walker argues that the stimulus programs will only prolong and worsen the credit excesses, and that the massive deficits and reckless expansion of the money supply will unleash hyperinflation, a more painful and socially dangerous threat. Think of Germany's hyperinflation experience in the 1920s or more recently of Brazil's or Zimbabwe's. He is predicting a long, deep, global depression with soaring, paralyzing inflation.

Walker is an economist of the so-called Austrian School. Hayek, Hegel and Schumpeter are its forebears, and they disdain Keynes. The Austrians believe that debt supercycles can only be cured by allowing the world economy to fall into a short but very steep and severe depression, which liquidates the debt, bankrupts the sick banks and companies, and causes soaring unemployment, but also lays the foundations for a new era of healthy growth. They call this process "creative destruction," and they concede the pain will be intense but maintain it will be concentrated over a short period of time. Booms can only be corrected by busts.

George Soros points out that the history of financial panics is that the authorities must move quickly and risk overkill. To do too little means that a crisis develops a momentum of its own, which can result in a death spiral that takes decades to reverse, à la the 1930s. By this logic, Obama's stimulus program does not get enough fiscal adrenalin into the economy's bloodstream fast enough. Soros and others maintain it should have been north, not south, of a trillion dollars and that too much of it won't hit until 2010 and 2011.

In his philosophical moments, Soros says that for several millennia in different civilizations, great cycles of wealth creation have usually lasted about two generations, or 60 years. Inevitably, unequal riches corrupt and create envy, and they are always followed by a generation of enormous wealth destruction. The greatest cycle of wealth creation of all time began after World War II in the late 1940s. He believes it peaked in 2007 and that now the world is in for a generation of wealth destruction that will be very painful. Not a cheery thought.

Unless Stevehjx sold some Futures on the Dow and having the balls for it, he's just an unsignificant armchair economist.

Steve, you are trying to have it both ways. Please stop it. It's annoying.

Stevie!!

Been thinkin' bout you & the 6500. You were right!! Wish you were wrong. Now, could you please make the market go up?

Steve,

How do you think DOW 6850-6500 will effect coops/condos? How long do you think it will be until we bottom out? 2011? 2013?

Also, how do you think prices will be impacted if mtg deduction is capped at 28%? I know you favor eliminating the entire mtg deduction since you think it's built into the price.

So, between the crappy economy & mtg deduction cap, where do you see prices bottoming?

thanks.

Steve even though you drive me crazy at times you were absolutely right! I actually talked about you at a party in a sentence that went something like " well this guy Steve from streeteasy has been dead on so i will listen to him."

Buddyparker, you can join Stevehjx and his Peoples Temple Agricultural Project on Fire Island.

nuggit

Just had to bring that chestnut back for the REAL old schoolers on SE - not the pretenders.

steve is predicting stocks to fall more - time to buy back in!

Make the market go up! Wouldn't that be nice!

Alas, only spunky can do that.

> steve is predicting stocks to fall more - time to buy back in!

I hear you. Steve is almost a perfect inverse predictor!

quit lying about your predictions steve. We can easily go back and look up what you really said so lying is a stupid thing to do here.

Steve,

I remember you said Dow 6500.

So, where do you see the bottom? 2011ish?

"Steve is almost a perfect inverse predictor!"

Then so must Warren Buffett be.

"We can easily go back and look up what you really said so lying is a stupid thing to do here."

Look them up. You will see that I have said what I'm saying I said.

"where do you see the bottom? 2011ish?"

I don't know. I get the same feeling now that I got in May of last year when I thought I should liquidate everything (but unfortunately didn't): I don't know what to invest in right now, or what's going to happen. Which indicates to me that things are about to turn.

But I wouldn't put any more money on it. Keeping it in cash.

Lots of people have been and continue to be wrong. Did you see Hank Greenberg today?

Anyway, Steven, I think you may want to re-read your positions before you keep saying you were right, and frankly, there's nothing wrong with being wrong, just trying to say otherwise.

With respect to the "headed toward" nonsense, you can't cite a specific number and then disown it because "headed toward" is just directional. When you get in the elevator, you say you are headed down or headed up. Or, you say I'm going to 10th floor or the Lobby. You don't say you are headed to the 10th floor if you are at the lobby and plan on getting out at 9 because both 10 and 9 are in the same direction when you are starting from the lobby.

steve is so full of crap. In September, when I said that the dow was likely to go to 6500 he immediately came on the board and started babbling about how unlikely that was; he insulted nouriel roubini and said he didn't know what he was talking about (wrong again Steve)...In October when the market blew up and he got depressed about all the money he lost he started rattling about the market falling to depths as low as 5000...then the december rally came and he backed off again

Please stop bragging...

Sorry you guys don't like what I've said. The record is clear.

And I stand by what I said about Roubini. And Schiff.

> Sorry you guys don't like what I've said. The record is clear.

Yes, it is!

We've got all your mistakes in black and white. I posted 'em above for anyone who didn't see...

> "Steve is almost a perfect inverse predictor!"
> Then so must Warren Buffett be.

Nope.... he made one big call. You made several, and each was almost perfectly wrong!

> "We can easily go back and look up what you really said so lying is a stupid thing to do here."
> Look them up.

Don't have to... I pasted them above!

> You will see that I have said what I'm saying I said.

You can stop saying what you said you said.

We can all read what you ACTUALLY said.

One more time, just for the laughs. This is what the guy who wants credit for calling Dow 6500 said...

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."

Talk about the bullshit artist of the year!

Here is what I said:

What I said was, in the process of a panic: "However, there is nothing to stop the stock market from panicking its way all the way to the bottom." And I meant it. "Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow." And I didn't. I said that that's the direction we were headed. Just because we haven't got there yet doesn't mean we won't get there, nyc. That is your mistake. There are still very good technical reasons why we could reach that bottom. The game is not over. You laughed when I said Dow 8,000, as well. Oh well.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6284-approaching-10000-manhattan-listings

Don't know how much plainer I can be: "Just because we haven't got there yet doesn't mean we won't get there, nyc. That is your mistake. There are still very good technical reasons why we could reach that bottom."

Yes, Steve, we know. You called up AND you called down.

Then, when things went up, you claimed you didn't call down. And you called Dow 11,000. Then things went down, and now you're claiming you called down the whole time.

You've called, up, down, sideways, EVERYTHING. And each time you call it, the opposite happens.

Everybody gets it... why don't you?

"And you called Dow 11,000."

I did not. I said that I thought the Dow would reach 11,000 by the end of this year. I'm not so sure about that now.

"Everybody gets it... why don't you?"

There: nyc, when faced with reality - the exact quote of what I said with the link and everything - STILL DENIES that I said it!

Amazing. No wonder he like Rush Limbaugh so much.

> "And you called Dow 11,000."

> I did not. I said that I thought the Dow would reach 11,000 by the end of this year.

Oh my lord, you are a funny, funny man!

> There: nyc, when faced with reality - the exact quote of what I said with the link and everything -
> STILL DENIES that I said it!

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."

There it is, black and white.

I didn't deny it... YOU DID.

Steve, seriously, you are in utter delusion. You called 6500 sort of, then the market went up, then you claimed you never said we'd hit 6500 (AND predicted 11k) and now that we're down again, you suddenly forgot 11k and you take back your denial claim?

Seriously, Steve, EVERYBODY ELSE gets it.... and you don't.

And you get even funnier... you contradict yourself in your own sentence!

> "And you called Dow 11,000."
> I did not. I said that I thought the Dow would reach 11,000 by the end of this year.

It takes a "special" kind of man to claim he called 6500 after saying "i never called 6500" and to say he never called 11,000 and backs that up with "I said that I thought the Dow would reach 11,000 by the end of this year."

Steve, seriously, give it up already.

Now here are my predictions:

The market is going to go below 6000.
The market is going to go above 8000.
The market is going to stand still.

In 30 days I will come back and take credit for whichever one ends up being true!

oh, nyc! You're just being a silly billy!

WTF??????? Stop pouncing on the guy. We get it: Lots here don't agree w/ Steve. I remember when he said it & remember lots pouncing on him then.

Steve: Why don't you like Roubini?

Roubini sells a newsletter. I've never heard the reasons behind what he predicts he does, and can only surmise it's to get his name in the press. I have heard Peter Schiff on Kudlow, & he said that there was inflation in the air. When pressed, he said not to look for signs of inflation in prices.

WTF?

Yes, dwell, stock markets go up and down. nyc tries to twist that into my saying what he wants me to have said. Above all of his nonsense I copied what I did write.

It's so stupid - I never even used the word "call" except to quote NYC!

Steve, I wouldn't worry about it - he's an antagonizer of the first order. Frankly, no one cares all that much about Dow calls on a message board.

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year betting against U.S. stocks, said now is the time to purchase equities because the economy isn’t headed for a major contraction.

“These comparisons people make with the Great Depression are totally out of touch with reality, and pretty stupid,” Leuthold told Bloomberg Television in an interview today. “We’ve been in much worse, much more panicked and more scary situations in the U.S.”

The economy isn’t as bad as it was in 1974, when stocks began rebounding, he added. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will surge to at least 1,000 in 2009, Leuthold said. That would represent a gain of 44 percent from yesterday’s 12-year low of 696.33.

Because a rally is likely, investors shouldn’t buy his Grizzly Short Fund, Leuthold said. It has returned 26 percent in 2009.

Okay, Dow closed at 6,595 today.

Yes, nyc will say that I never said that the Dow would reach 6,500, even though I quoted verbatim what I wrote.

And it did.

And we're headed for a 50% peak to trough price drop in Manhattan real estate.

hey let me get some of this on-line anonymous glory... I called dJia 6500 3 months ago.. .good grief I've been on SE too long....and yes julia, $500psf prime NYC no problem...

Wehere are we next? Very up and down lately.

So, how did you do on the market, steve? That was a perfect buying opportunity which most of us missed (I'm talking the stock market.

Great call steve. Maybe you should rethink all your theories.

I miss Steve. He was wrong about 100% of the time, but not if you asked him. Still, seemed like a nice guy, except for all those time he wasn't.