Auctions

lo - I am skeptical of the auction stories I have seen in the Times, Real Deal, etc. The sources are usually the auctioneers who say "we're coming to town" -- but the stories omit one of the complexities of auctions, which is that sellers often put in a reserve price. So it's showy if the "minimum" is 50% of list, but if the "reserve" is 85% of list, who cares?

I'll believe it when someone writes a story about an NYC auction of decent condo inventory that is held on "no-reserve" terms.

ali r.
[downtown broker}

How else will we clear 3 years of inventory (and growing)? Auctions are a last resort of course, but I think you have to admit we're getting close to "last resort" type conditions.

front_porch, I value your opinion. What is your outlook? Do you see activity?

mbz - where did you get the 3 years of inventory? Pretty sure J Miller recently reported 14 months of inventory.

OTNYC keep your head in the sand. New developments only list officially for sale a tiny fraction of what they have, especially if they're a 250 apt. bldg. and have been selling 1 or 2 a month for the last 4 months. That's a 10-year pace.

What about Ebay? A broker actually suggested that. Is it happening?

uppereast, thanks for the compliment!

I think it's an astoundingly segmented market. I hear hi-end sales (which I don't have any of at the moment) are dead -- but I'm doing a second showing this weekend on a $27,500/mo. rental that we listed just a couple of weeks ago.

Similarly on the low end -- I've got two starter apartments (one-BRs, $500-$600K) for sale and they both should go. The one I've had for two months (West Village) the owners have turned down two offers, waiting for their price, and they should get it. But I can't give away a FiDi doorman studio, despite the fact that I told the owner at $1,650 no fee it would fly.

In that great middle of $750K to $2MM -- I hear it's still tough to get a loan over $625K, and so I trust Jonathan Miller, who says that the market recovers 2 years after credit comes back. But I'm a "bull" -- which in this market means I just see flattish prices and no transactions -- everybody just sits on their hands.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

"Jonathan Miller, who says that the market recovers 2 years after credit comes back"

when did he say that? i missed it... i agree, it's the distressed sellers the ones that are going to set prices and possibly also the people near to retirement with 200.5(k)s that bought decades ago.

You missed it only because he said it at the Inman conference (Real Estate Connect NYC) when he was on a panel that I was moderating -- mid-January, maybe?

ali r.
{downtown broker}

front_porch, Thanks for your feedback. It's always appreciated. I am thinking about buying a 3BR. Feel like it's a good time to be out there since there are not too many buyers.

uppereast, smart move IMO.