Good Afternoon Bitter Renters: Here is Some Bad News for You

It'll be just like Japan when 0% interest rates halted the housing decline...20 years later.

Yeah but my client trying to finance a $3.1M condo is having a hell of a time.

alpine, i am confused? if rates are low doesn't that mean it is GOOD to be a renter? i mean, if you own, and have a mortgage at a high interest rate, isn't that a bad thing? whereas if i rent i can buy and take advantage of the low rates.

huh.

Maybe he has no busines buying a $3.1 million condo. What's wrong with a $2.1 million condo? I would kill to live in one. But unfortunately anything with 7 digits in the price tag is out of my price range. I'm just poor white trash.

"i mean, if you own, and have a mortgage at a high interest rate, isn't that a bad thing?"

Um, no. You can call up and refinance to a lower rate.

alpine, does this mean you can finally afford to move out of New Jersey?

I think by "bitter renters" alpine means "individuals currently renting who are hoping that manhattan prices tank so they can buy, thereby assuaging their bitterness"

it took me awhile...

So if I understand your point, I'm supposed to rush out and buy now because rates are (unsustainably) low? But when rates (inevitably) go back up, what might happen to the market price of my shiny new home?

wow east_cider, great question!

I don't live in NJ anymore. How many times do I have to tell you that? I live in Hell's Kitchen.

You guys are bitter. It feels like you wish the whole world falls apart all in the quest for that cheap apartment you want to buy.

A lot of renters in NYC were bitter for a long time. But last time I checked it was owners and brokers who were starting threads by calling people names and wishing them misfortune. Sometimes they even reach for bizarre rationales for gloating over something that has no practical relevance. Like this one.

As a casual observer, I can't help but notice that the adjective 'bitter' seems much more applicable to recent buyers, not renters.

I personally don't like bitter renters. I prefer them sweet since they taste better that way.

uppereast,

there is a big difference between wishing and predicting. i predict that i am going to die some day, but i don't wish for it. i predict that the polar ice caps are going to continue to melt, but i don't wish for it. i predict that the economy is going to continue to deteriorate, but i don't wish for it.

when i predict something, i plan for it. but that doesn't mean i wish for it.

I want the polar ice caps to melt. This way I can buy ocean front property in Kansas for pennies on the dollar. Ok, just joking....

"It feels like you wish the whole world falls apart all in the quest for that cheap apartment you want to buy."

I think it would be more accurate to say "the world has fallen apart and the buyers/renters are just waiting for the sellers to realize it"

Wow, same alpine, same denial.

Pretty clear who is ACTUALLY bitter these days...
;-)

Separately, prices have ALREADY fallen WAY beyond where most folks "hoped". The predictions a year back were mostly in the 20s. We already hit that... a couple months back. Now, latest stat is co-ops down 28 down. Once again, 28% down.

Second, the logic is completely stupid.

Why on earth with low mortgage rates matter.... who cares about the rate when the salaries JUST GOT CAPPED AT $250k?

You just killed most of the market for million dollar apartments. You think low rates - which we ALREADY HAD - are going to turn back that tide.

Wow, alpine... this is WACKY denial and lousy logic... even for you!

"But last time I checked it was owners and brokers who were starting threads by calling people names and wishing them misfortune. Sometimes they even reach for bizarre rationales for gloating over something that has no practical relevance. Like this one."

Malthus -

You nailed that one on the head.

Clearly the owners and brokers are the ones lashing out these days, and this thread is no exception.

Why are y'all so angry? It makes you -- all of you -- sound irrational. Can't you make your points without the emotional silliness and name-calling? Let's try just stating our views and theories, acknowledging that reasonable minds might differ, and then having a discussion. What ever happened to intelligent and civil debate?

sniper, it is interesting ow you are complaing that sellers are irrational when you just sold your apartment, for quite frankly, an excessive price. What was the transaction? $870,000 for a 2 bed/1 bath apt. I mean, that is quite high.

"cares about the rate when the salaries JUST GOT CAPPED AT $250k?"

Nobody's salary is capped at $250k. Please stop spreading lies.

I guess if you are an owner who needs to sell, falling prices are clearly a bad thing, but there is an incredible silver lining to this cloud for everyone else: affordibility

If housing costs came down for every renter in the city (perhaps not so much for those locked into mortgages) off of existing prices, do you know how much disposable income that would create for these inhabitants? For the ordinary rabble eeking out a living renting in the city, this could be a huge "stimulus" and an alternate source of spending in the city.

most renters are never going to buy so lower housing prices will do squat. Only 1/3 of Mnahattan residents own.

co-ops are not down 28%. Accoridng to Noah @ urban digs, prices for co-ops under $1 million are down 15%.

Here is Noah's data. The 28% seems to apply mainly to the high end:

HIGH END ($5M+) - down aprox 25% - 40% from peak
HIGH/MIDDLE ($2M - $5M) - down aprox 25% - 30% from peak
MID END ($1M - $2M) - down aprox 20% to 30% from peak
LOWER END (Under $1M) - down aprox 15% - 25% from peak

alpine - think "Neon" Deion. it isn't that interesting. i went on the market and into contract about 30% ago on the dow. i also took the invaluable advice of MANY (shout out to urbandigs, nbpny.com and more) on here who told me "PRICE AHEAD OF THE CURVE!!!!" i did my best to do that that - we are now IN that curve (beginning, middle, end - who knows?) but i did my best to price ahead of it and found the right buyer. a needle in a haystack? maybe, but it wasn't an "excessive price." it was the "right price" for him and I, at the right time. in my estimation that is how deals get done. a lot of property priced now at the wrong price is how inventory increases and deal-flow stops. just my thoughts.

I feel nothing to apologize for in saying that I wish for a large decline in NYC prices because prices are ludicrously high, even at the supposed 2005 level transactions are sometimees taking place at. It has been an asset bubble, and I am glad to see it starting to burst. Of course, I feel sorry for buyers who were suckered in to the bubble (ie, bought a tulip), but I still do not feel that the rest of society, including myself, should bear the cost of an unwise decision, and subsidize sustaining the folly.

"but I still do not feel that the rest of society, including myself, should bear the cost of an unwise decision, and subsidize sustaining the folly."

Oh, but you will be subsidizing those who overbought. Now zip it and mail Barney Frank a check. Your neighbor is waiting for you to pay his mortgage.

Printing money...which is what the government is doing ...is dangerous in the medium and long term, and it is by no means clear that juicing a little movement in housing markets with cheap money will result in a sustained floor or rebound for housing prices. Risk still abounds for real estate owners, and all should be cautious, or in other words transaction prices should reflect the risks..

Alpine: Did you buy in Hells Kitchen? Been in the neighborhood a lot lately.

No, I do not own in Manhattan. I don't tink I will be buying in the city since there is a good chance I will be relocating to the D.C. area in the not to distant future.

well -- good thing you own so that you are forced to incur heavy relocation costs....

I just said I do NOT own in Manhattan. I own in Jersey, but that does not affect me because I turned the house into a rental property.

alpine,

That rate applies to those who meet the criteria*. If some renters are bitter, some owner have to be bitter as well with a depreciating asset and equity.

and the cost of relocating from NYC to D.C. is pennies. With the lower cost of living, it pays for itself. In fact, I can rent in ultra exclusive Goergetown for the price of a sh*thole in Harlem.

*Georgetown*

so you are planning to rent in georgetown?!?! hmmmm....are you becoming bitter?

I don't want to buy someplace I have never lived before.

alpine,

GT is one of the most expensive sections of D.C. LOL. How dare you talk about renters are bitter and you are a renter and will probably never own.

ohhhh, the irony!

I currently own a house dimwit. Please read the entire thread before commenting.

Hey alpine292,
I lived in DC for a number of years, in Foggy Bottom, to be exact. You can get a lot more for your money in DC, that's for sure. Enjoy your time there.

You are an ASS an ocean front property in Kansas.

is "dimwit" really necessary? you OWN a house only because you could not sell it (probably priced behind the curve).

p.s. i have no interest in name calling. it seems that people here revert to that when they have been caught in an inconsistency, hypocrisy or just plain old difference of opinion that they can't handle.

alpine,

no where in this thread do you mention you own.

so the feds are going to save housing my inflating another bubble with cheap credit. can you say house of cards? yeah mortgage rates are coming down for a brief spell but with the flood of dollars we can expect inflation and that means much higher rates. no way i am going to buy now.

sniper,

alpine, is known for pulling stories out of his anal cavity and he enjoys it that why he is moving to D.C. to go to Rock Creek so he can be "doing it in the park doing it after dark oh yeah Rock Creek Park oh yeah Rock Creek Park."

Wasn't Alpine laughed out of town already? Or does he already live out of town? Can't keep it straight.

Alpine - I take it the house still isn't selling. Color me surprised. Perhaps at this point it's easier to simply resolve yourself to living in NJ indefinitely.

Imagine that - trapped in Alpine NJ infinitely by a declining real estate market. Stuck Inside of Alpine with the New York Blues Again.

Anyway, thanks for stopping by, Alpine.

By the way, Alpine, you're showing your age - "bitter renter" is now an anachronism. Very 2007. If you want to know who's truly bitter, well, take a look at the mirror above your bed.

"indefinitely", although infinitely may also apply

how many times do rates need to temporarily fall from fed policy, for people to see that it will not stop housing prices from doing what they will otherwise do

Oooh. I'm so bitter. I'm watching prices fall and interest rates go down so that I will have to spend less money in the short and long term, while knowing that the plunging value of the place I live now is somebody else's problem. Yeah, that sucks for me. Bitter bitter bitter.

The beautiful thing about the market is that no one on this thread, or any other thread - despite how bitter (and by the way, those owners who are claiming renters are bitter, are actually the most bitter) - is that your comments are completely inconsequential with respect to where the market is going. Supply and demand, which has been greatly affected by Wall Street over the past decade, will likely readjust to normalized levels, which according to Miller Samuels is about $700 per square foot for 2BR, 2BA on the UES.

urban - where have you been lately? i gave a shout-out to you earlier in this thread for advice you gave me before i put my place on market. i recall you were working on a few things (new business model, etc.), how is it going? i would love to here your opinion on where this is all going? prices, rates, etc.

OH, have times changed. Irony of the year, its pretty from the title of this thread who is actually bitter....

This is the same alpine who, just 2-3 months back, denied there was ANY decline at all!

I am ROTFL now that he's changed it to "oh yeah, it may be declining, but not as much as you had hoped!" Man, talk about denial.

> co-ops are not down 28%.

This is getting fairly repetitive, but... WHOOPS.

Whenever alpine screams "is not", its pretty much guaranteed to be wrong. There is an entire thread on alpine denial from a few weeks back.

"After all, co-op sales have dried up, and preliminary figures show that average co-op prices are off 28 percent so far this year from the record prices in the first quarter of 2008. "

NYTimes, link posted on this very board just a couple days ago.

"Nobody's salary is capped at $250k. Please stop spreading lies."

Yes, a federal rate of 70-90% + city/state taxes going up to 13 or so percent, plus SS etc. Dude, you can call that whatever you want, but nobody from any TARP bank gets to keep anything over $250k.

"most renters are never going to buy so lower housing prices will do squat. "

ok, so its "yes, I was completely wrong about every single post about there being no declines, but you won't buy anyway!"

Is alpine 12 years old? Is this really his argument?

" I don't tink I will be buying in the city since there is a good chance I will be relocating to the D.C. area in the not to distant future."
"I can rent in ultra exclusive Goergetown for the price of a sh*thole in Harlem. "

Ah, reasons for bitterness are becoming VERY clear.

ALPINE IS BECOMING RUFUS! He lived in Jersey, always wanted Manhattan but couldn't afford it. Now he has to move to DC, and suddenly he doesn't like NYC.

WOW, SOUR F*ING GRAPES!

MAlthus had it right just yesterday.

But last time I checked it was owners and brokers who were starting threads by calling people names and wishing them misfortune. Sometimes they even reach for bizarre rationales for gloating over something that has no practical relevance. Like this one."

It took some time, but WOW are owners getting super sensitive!

putz puts in in a catchier way...

"By the way, Alpine, you're showing your age - "bitter renter" is now an anachronism."

nyc10022 - I'm in agreement with many of your comments, but you need to get your facts straight if you expect to have some credibility. The bonus taxes have only been passed in the Congress NOT the Senate, so it's not a law yet. The Senate will likely NOT pass the legislation, which would still have to be signed by the President. Political Science 101.

I'm just as outraged as any other American over the bonuses, but unfortunately, it's too little too late. Even if the law is enacted, I doubt it will have any meaningful effect on the real estate market.

Prices ARE continuing to decline, but not because of unethical, immoral, unjustified bonuses.

"The bonus taxes have only been passed in the Congress NOT the Senate, so it's not a law yet. The Senate will likely NOT pass the legislation, which would still have to be signed by the President. Political Science 101."

Yes, senate is passing the 70% version... why I gave the range.

And you think Obama WON'T sign it? Wow, wishful thinking....

nyc10022 - Where are you getting your information. The Senate is DISCUSSING the Bill, but nothing has been passed. Yes, Obama will likely sign any Bill that makes it through the Senate, but it hasn't happened yet.

You're as bad/ bitter as Alpine. I'm on YOUR side, but you're so preoccupied with anger that you can't see that.

I think you and Alpine should date - you're perfect for each other.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090320/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing_umichigan;_ylt=Aqk60tFhfWPwRUw2Vrc7Ltvv5rEF

thought this would be of interest to the discussion.
believe it or not CNBC just teased a segment coming up with "Is The Housing Market Ready To Boom?"

Here is what REALLY happened. Alpine was a suburban chump for many years, always yearning for city life. In around 2007, he noticed how NYC real estate prices kept going up and said to himself "I bet I can be a broker, AND live in NYC!". He tried to sell his house (as mentioned above), but couldnt (ironic as he wanted to be a broker!) and so he was forced to rent it out. He then moves to some crappy apartment in hells kitchen to get his brokers license. After (somehow) passing the test, he becomes the "assistant to the assistant" broker at some 3rd rate shop. After 2 years, they finally decide to let him try and sell himself but unfortunately the bubble has burst by that time. Fast forward to the present, and Alpine is here posting threads about "bitter" renters (of which he is one!) and plotting his move to DC after his dreams of being a NYC broker fell apart in front of him. Honestly folks, we should feel sorry for people like him. HE is bitter, has a failed carreer, yet trys to make himself happy by denying facts and putting people down. Good luck in DC Alpine, dont let the door hit you on the way out.......

Alpine isn't even 30 years old. I'm beginning to think she's a teenage troll. Why did you start this thread anyway? BTW - being an owner is no big deal. Renting for forever may be the smarter thing to do. Why do you care? Hell's Kitchen -you couldn't pay me to live there.

Correct, see my post directly above yours. He came to the city 2 to 3 years ago to be a broker, was terrible at it, and now he is crying his way to DC. Pathetic if you ask me!

"Alpine is here posting threads about "bitter" renters (of which he is one!)"

BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... i almost spewed my drink outta my nose. thanks for the laugh!

Just a little FYI for everyone here who has no idea what they are talking about: Most bills that pass the House never pass Congress. This is based on the fact that, in the Senate, the Republicans can fillibuster. Will the 90% tax pass the Senate? Most likely not.

nyc10022, zip it already. I was born and raised in Manhattan. I went to PS6. (Yes, that PS6). I probably spent a larger percentage of my life in Manhattan than most of the posters here.

I did not call you a dimwit sniper. That comment was for mutombonyc

and please stop trying to speculate about my background because your all wrong. And I do not intend to provide any info baout my background. When I sold my apartment several years ago, the NY Times wrote an entire piece about it. But since some of you people are creeps, I am not posting the link to it.

"I was born and raised in Manhattan"

Thats a funny one Alpine, keep on digging yourself into a hole. So you were born and raised in NYC, yet you also simultaneiously lived in NJ?? Hmmm thats interesting! So while living this double life, at what point did you decide to move (back??) into NYC to become a broker? While we are on the topic, will you maintain three residences (NYC, NJ, and DC) once you finally move on and leave us alone? I think the only thing you have multiple of is personalities. You might want to have yourself examined by a psychiatrist, or perhaps take an extended stay at a mental institution. Dont worry about the voices in your head Alpine, they are just prospective buyers who want to enlist your services as a broker!

i was referring to name calling of anyone by anyone. not necessary. strong arguments or opinions stand on their own.

after reading UES bandit's posts, I think all banks should have an insanity test for borrowers before they lend out any money

> nyc10022, zip it already.

Wow, and this was the guy who called OTHERS bitter. Whoah, the owners are certainly lashing out these days!

> your all wrong

Self-referential statement of the day!

Alpine is a homeowner in Alpine, NJ (funny how that works)....

"after reading UES bandit's posts, I think all banks should have an insanity test for borrowers before they lend out any money"

Yeah, that ship sailed a long time ago... look how many morons bought 2003-2008.

"after reading UES bandit's posts, I think all banks should have an insanity test for borrowers before they lend out any money"

After reading Alpine's posts, I think that NYS should require ethics and lie detector tests prior to issuing a brokers license.

Alpine isn't a broker... just a VERY bitter buyer.

"Good Afternoon Bitter Renters: Here is Some Bad News for You" - mortgage rates... bla bla ..

I KNEW IT!!!! I feel so dumb. I wish I had bought a condo at 30% above today's rates last year. WAAAAH!! I am soo sad!!

"Alpine isn't a broker... just a VERY bitter buyer."

He is actually both. You will notice that in most of his threads he disusses how NY real estate prices are going UP. He has started many threads challenging people to post a single example of prices going down (a typical broker tactic), however of course he is immediately innundated with examples and leaves with his tail between his legs. On the other hand, he is a very bitter seller as he couldnt sell his own home in Alpine NJ. So he comes to NYC already bitter that he couldnt sell his own place, then he realizes his dreams of being a broker are shattered due to prices falling. His next step is to come here, and post wild statements about prices going up in the hopes that his business will improve. Now, I dont know about you but I would NEVER buy from a cranky, bitter, aloof broker so I am not shocked that he has had no success. As his 'coup de grâce' he has admitted his lifelong dreams of prospering as a broker in NYC have failed, and is packing his bags for DC....

Good points. Fact is, the only folks I've seen in ANYWHERE NEAR as much denial are brokers. Alpine was saying there was no decline just a couple months back. He screams about every stat. He calls renters "bitter" when its clear that buyers are shitting their pants now. AND, the guy is clearly obsessed with Manhattan, but owns in JERSEY.

UES, you have me convinced... Alpine is a broker.

"I KNEW IT!!!! I feel so dumb. I wish I had bought a condo at 30% above today's rates last year. WAAAAH!! I am soo sad!!"

LOL

Go ahead and believe whatever you want to. But I have an education beyond the 6th grade so I don't have to bust my ass working on commission.

I thought it funny to review this one...

Here's a tip for you. Buy when interest rates are high, because you can always more or refinance your loan, and chances are prices will be very low. If you buy when interest rates are low, you pay a lot for the property and there will be nothing you can do about the price.

it'll be even better a month from now

wow craberry, thanks a lot for stating an obvious truth. it's simple enough: lock in lowest principal as possible (thanks in part to high IR) and later refi locking in lowest rate as possible. simple enough, right?

low IR is only good news for the seller (that sells to suckers that think that the NAR really means it when they say there's "high affordability") and current homeowners (that refi), not for the new buyer. why on earth parents don't teach this basic thing to their kids? they tell them how to save cents but not how to avoid being a sucker for several times their annual income. wtf?

We are a nation of economic illiterates... but, of course, thats why we had the RE bubble and pop in the first place...