The (Bitter) Tide Has Turned

Agreed. And I love it. Sucks to be them, but that's the price of greed and stupidity.

I like being a bitter renter, and I plan on being one for many years to come!

I'm going to write the book "bitter renting for fun and profit"....

you shoudl write that book since your the expert. DUH! me, petrizitz, techguy and alpine will write another book about how to make money while you just write about your 50sf basement apartment. while your eating your ramen noodle breakfast ill be selling more apartments.

I like broker_ivan more and more.

"petrizitz." ROTFL.

Don't forget LICComment = tech_guy. Property prices in Long Island City are SOARING now that the Duane Reade finally opened!

Thanks, Ivan, for proving the point.

> me, petrizitz, techguy and alpine will write another book about how to make money

Flipping Houses for Dummies is already out (and helped a lot of people lose money). Why don't you try "burning money for dummies". I'm sure tons of folks would love to get investment advice from the crew that inclues the guy who called UP at the top of the bubble, the one who asked why China doesn't put its money under a mattress, and the guy who doesn't know what an option is. Great company you keep!

Separately, I also find it funny that median sales price - which bulls said was the measure to use (and bears did not like) - is now suddenly a problematic measure for the same bulls. Its suddenly a horrible way to look at things because of the shift in sales to low end (completely ignoring that the measure was previously affected by the shift to the high end in the run up).

Here comes the wave of hypocrisy.

I have been a bitter renter for years, constantly kicking myself for not having bought (I had some excuse in that I had several overseas assignments, but nevertheless,it was a big mistake, or so it seemed), and...and...I had to listen to so many deluded lucky buyers who thought of themselves as brillinat entrepreneurs just because they happened to buy in a bubble on the way up. Now, I am becoming happy renter watching it all unravel. Fun.

Well, much like dotcom stock buyers in 1999, the arrogance and stupidity do increase in tandem (and do so exponentially, it seems). The fallout from that when the crash hits is a lot of folks turning quickly bitter, and those who were bitter moving quickly to gloat.

I think much of that progress is documented on this board.

I have been a bitter renter for years, constantly kicking myself for not having bought (I had some excuse in that I had several overseas assignments, but nevertheless,it was a big mistake, or so it seemed), and...and...I had to listen to so many deluded lucky buyers who thought of themselves as brillinat entrepreneurs just because they happened to buy in a bubble on the way up. Now, I am becoming happy renter watching it all unravel. Fun.

"I have been a bitter renter for years, constantly kicking myself for not having bought (I had some excuse in that I had several overseas assignments,"

Prices are stll substantially higher today than before the bubble began,s o you shoudl still be kicking yourself for not buying. If you bought in 01-02, you made out like a bandit.

alpine, you are a very smart guy. I think by buying a place now you will make a fantastic investment. With prices only down 3% from the peak, we know Manhattan is stronger than ever. Maybe other suburbs are hurting. Maybe Long Island. Maybe northern NJ is fallen 40%. That just means keep renting your house, right? Don't sell your house. Or maybe you should sell your house, and invest the equity in Manhattan because it has fallen yet.

That's the answer Alpine, sell your house for whatever its worth, maybe 40% les than before but so what, then take the cash and pick up a great apartment here. But move fast, I have three bidding wars and its picking up.

Don't listen to these renters, alpine. Manhattan is going up. Don't be a renter. Do you have any money?

"Separately, I also find it funny that median sales price - which bulls said was the measure to use (and bears did not like)"

Actually that is not true at all nyc10022 and some pretty good spin on your part. What was argued was that median price per sq ft was the best measure (without a database of information and true market comps). Do you think median price per square ft has decreased 28%? Why or why not?

"What was argued was that median price per sq ft was the best measure"

Nope.

I'll ignore steve's comment becuase he is going to tell us all that the Miller Samuel or Case Shiller method is better (wow what a revelation) but refuses to admit that he doesn't have that data in his living room so the best measure that we have available to us on a dialy basis is median psqft. Yawn.

Still interested to know of nyc10022 thinks the median price per square ft is down 28% for co-ops.

I think the name says it all "Broker_ivan". (a broker -- somebody who tries to exist off of others transactions....). Where you lose credibility is not on the transactions (you get paid in both a rising and declinning environment). You lose in insisting that it is only off 3% and is going higher from here.

By the way -- your comment on the other thread about "canadians, Europeans and the french" is hilarious. The french are not europeans?
Broker_forrest ... perhaps.

I thought it was clear from my comment about "Now, I am becoming happy renter watching it all unravel. Fun" that I am becoming a happyrenter, as opposed to a disgruntled one, because of the still unfolding lowering of prices . (some twerp didnt get that nuance)

> What was argued was that median price per sq ft was the best

Yes, that was argued, but it was argued by one person. The majority of folks, including dead bjw,, focused on the overall medians.

And, interestingly enough, that person was a BEAR pointing out the problem with the overall median.

So, it just proves the point more!

"Prices are stll substantially higher today than before the bubble began,s o you shoudl still be kicking yourself for not buying. If you bought in 01-02, you made out like a bandit. "

Wow, still denial city.

> "What was argued was that median price per sq ft was the best measure"
> Nope.

Correct.

Also note that all the "how low will the market rise or fall" threads (from like a year back, I just searched "trough" and found a few were also about... overall median.

But, hey, the bulls can change their stories (once again).

I'm a renter...not bitter but, for the last few years just, envious or felt like I some how missed the big boat that took all my friend and associates to the land of RE riches and self agrandizing phony leverage wealth. I'm so much better that you...look at my big fat apartment (that I own, which I bought for $ and is now worth $$$$$).
Now, I'm not a material guy but, I want to own my own apartment....fix it up 'falcogold' style. The problem for the last 4-5 years is that Manhattan RE pricing seemed insane. I was not a genius just realistic. I'll be honest, I was begining to doubt if the correction would ever come. I feel for those who over extended in the last few years and were caught behind enemy lines but, se'lavie. With some luck my time has come. Instead of persons bidding from the hallway of the apartment sellers will have to court the buyers with extras, upgrades and, price! This is my kind of market. Best of all, time seems to be on my side. This monster stimulus package will act like a great big sugary treat for this nation energizing us rapidly only to crash thrice as hard as the sugar disapates. Watch for the little stabilization of pricing over the next 6 months followed by a super crash. That's why those whose professions it is to evaluate and invest are agressivly dumping their residential RE.
Hey, beer is bitter and I like beer!

"The majority of folks, including dead bjw,, focused on the overall medians."

I didn't know I was dead! Creepy. Anyway, I don't see what the big issue is with using median price per sq ft. It's not a bad measure at all. As for this thread, just another example of nyc10022's obsession with people being "bitter." It's really just silly to label any nondescript group (ie: renters, owners, dogwalkers, etc.) as "bitter" but frankly, you seem to know the subject pretty intimately.

manhattenfox, broker_ivan shtik was all irony, get it? it's a ha ha

happy renter here too. but i am buying-in miami. condos have fallen to a level where i can pay cash, throw a renter in and have minimal carrying costs. yes it's a foreclosure and needs a bit of work.

i've bought and sold 2 condos and 1 co-op in my manhattan sojourn. no love for brokers due to their incessant lying. my favorite universal lie, even now-"we have an offer very close to asking". now the payback, brokers are most certainly broker than they were 1 year ago. sorry about the bad pun.

cfranch...I am also looking to buy in Miami, probably at an auction (I watched one live online in July, and things have only gotten better for buyers since then I suppose), but you seem to be affirming what I sort of understood, which is that rents aren't much above condo fees per month,so your yield on the apartment cash cost ( i would buy cash) is zero, so it is all a play on an eventual increase in capital value, but the avalanche of inventory could dampen prices for years. Maybe I didn't understand your point....let me know !

jim-not looking for a homerun investment there. i assume prices stay depressed as well. the apt would eventually be for my use as i would be your classic snowbird. 8 months nyc/4 months in warm weather.

"he doesn't have that data in his living room so the best measure that we have available to us on a dialy basis is median psqft. Yawn."

I believe, JM, that I have shown how prices have evolved in at least 1 building in the West Village since 1998. Showed a sixfold-sevenfold increase in the prices of the same or similar units. The information is also available for condos on ACRIS, though not for co-ops except after 2004 (I think). Don't blame me for real estate agents' penchant for opacity, and don't claim that an inaccurate measure that doesn't account for changes in sample size is more accurate than a smaller, albeit methodologically more sound, sample.

Because it's not.

The cash flow on all my rented properties was it's highest last year and 2009 will be even greater. A majority of my loans have decreased monthly payments in half. I am also refinancing my other properties to lower rates. I will raise rents this year marginally except on the tenants whom I don't like. Their rents will be increased15-20%. So my property income is up and expenses down 50%. Nyc10022 how much has the cost of your rental decreased? None and you have no income or tax advantages from it. No wonder you are a bitter renter nobody

petrzitz, you're amazing! Everyone else is reducing their rents 20%, and you're raising yours!

So believable!

Steve - I can because I own the type of property that wasnt caught up in the crazy bubble - high end lux. I own property in an area that Wall Street types are not welcome. I also followed the Gottlieb mentality over the years - keep your rents low and tenants happy. Little turn over. My tenants who will be getting a marginal increase are still estatic as their rents are still a deal in this market. The others I will raise in hopes of their moving out.

petrfitz, you do realize that many of the Gottlieb properties are in terrible shape? The disregard for many of their tenants is reprehensible. I hope you're not following that model.

I would sometimes find Bill up on a ladder painting an apartment himself. I had no idea the extent of his holdings, this was back in 91.

bjw - my disregard for you is not reprehensible. I treat my tenants well but not too well. They are the type that dont need to live in super lux and dont complain because they dont want rents to go up.

Sometimes you will find me painting or working on a property - but not that often these days.

He treats 'em well because he's going to have to start sleeping on their couches after the foreclosure sale.

"As for this thread, just another example of nyc10022's obsession with people being "bitter." It's really just silly to label any nondescript group (ie: renters, owners, dogwalkers, etc.) as "bitter" but frankly, you seem to know the subject pretty intimately."

Of course... being called a "bitter renter" for years by the same people who are now painfully bitter...

You didn't seem to have any problem with the designation when it was thrown at renters, but when it hits owners, your nostrils flare!

nyc10022, I think you have a bit of a complex with regards to "bitterness." I've never called anyone a "bitter renter" (and for you to claim as fact what you think I used to think is pretty ridiculous), nor have I called anyone a "bitter owner." It's the kind of name-calling worthwhile posters avoid. And please, leave my nostrils out of this. Weird.

You and the strawman arguments.... AGAIN.

I never said you called anyone bitter. Wow, do you have lousy powers of comprehension and logic!

You do, however, show your absolute slant in who you "correct". But everyone knows that one...

nyc10022, notice that I did not say you accused me of calling anyone bitter - I was merely making the statement. What do you call that, when someone incorrectly accuses you of making a strawman argument? I guess that would be a double-strawman. Nice work! As for the "slant" idea you're propagating, you just like to focus on when I correct you.

I call it you are babblig putz...

"I've never called anyone a "bitter renter" (and for you to claim as fact what you think I used to think is pretty ridiculous)"

Again, seriously, look it up. You have no idea what the term means.

> you just like to focus on when I correct you

Again, you only correct those you disagree with, the errors that work in your favor, you love!

Slant, baby, slant!

"Again, you only correct those you disagree with"

Yes, why would I correct data/arguments that I believe are correct? I don't know what errors would "work in my favor." What would those be?

> Yes, why would I correct data/arguments that I believe are correct?

Thats not what I said... you and the reading comprehension not so good.

You'll allow blatant errors by those using them to support bull claims, but you will correct anything abouut anyone using them to make a point about the market going down.

Hell, you jumped on the 28% down number, saying there was no source without reading (INCORRECT!) Yet you make relatively 0 corrections on the other side.

> I don't know what errors would "work in my favor."

Anything that doesn't show the market is down!

Slant, baby, slant!

"You'll allow blatant errors by those using them to support bull claims, but you will correct anything abouut anyone using them to make a point about the market going down."

Such as? petrfitz and steveF are the most egregious "bulls" and I've called them out plenty. Sorry it's not enough to your liking (you do respond to every one of their posts it seems), but they're usually so ridiculous that I don't know where to start. I've tended to think you were more agreeable, but that's sadly proven not to be the case.

"Anything that doesn't show the market is down!"

How is that "in my favor"? You assume so much about me (and others), but know relatively little. I call you on your "slant" and your response is to say I "slant," which is neither clever, nor original, nor true.

> I've called them out plenty

All evidence to the contrary.

Slant, baby, slant!

"All evidence to the contrary."

Lies, baby, lies!

only if you include arguing over LES vs. Williamsburg! You've allowed his market predictions to go untouched for quite some time. You picked the ones that supported your slant, and then argued the only ones that didn't.

Slant, baby, slant!

If anyone believes petrfitz' market predictions, more power to them. They're his opinion and I completely disagree with him (though I won't call him, or anyone here, the names you do). Fact of the matter is, you post the same things (co-ops down 28%!, great day to be a renter!, bitter bubble buyers are morons!, etc.) on 3423 threads each day and post fairly vicious stuff anytime there's a whiff of disagreement from someone else. If that's not trolling, I don't know what is, so I apologize to the rest of the board for taking your bait so frequently. I should know better.

Slant, baby, slant!

> on 3423 threads each day and

Yes, completely unlike the 9000 threads saying "we are not declining" that you, of course, have no problem not correcting.

Spin it any way you want, you are a hypocrite.

Slant, baby, slant!