Just 27 to Go!

UD has it at 10999. How do you do the search?

Listings with address and not in contract.

It varies from day to day and isn't 100% accurate (nothing is), but it's very close.

where's that thread asking for bets on when inventory hits 11,000, 13,000, etc.?

They're not making any more land.

steve / anyone, can you give us some historical perspective on this number? how many listings were available 1 month ago? 2? 6? etc.. Thanks.

k2k2k2, interesting point. I wonder myself, but you also have to take into account that there are tens of thousands of added (as in new construction and conversion) units that were added to the supply in the past 5 years, so an analytical study would have to include the percentage of all units that are sellable for sale now versus before.

http://www.urbandigs.com/charts.html
goes back 6 months. Urban has more data than that, but hasn't updated his chart widget to show it.

k2k2k2, the charts at urbandigs.com will show you the last 6 months. Noah, of UrbanDigs, recently told us on another thread that the inventory number this time last year was around 7000.

Lowery, what's up? As soon as it warms up a bit I'm going to try that bike route you recommended.

thanks very much. Sobering stuff. Clearly buyers can wait longer than sellers in this market.

I just want to go on record as predicting that inventory will go over 11,000.

waverly,

Don't forget - it will also come down at some point!

Historical perspective: we are clocking along at around 10,000 units a year, so we have a little more than a year's worth of inventory -- plus whatever "shadow" condo units are around, probably another six months' worth.

While anything over six months' worth of inventory is considered to be a buyer's market -- which we are certainly in -- I've heard that in the trough of the last prolonged dip (in the nineties) we had SEVEN YEARS worth of inventory.

IMHO, part of the difference is interest rates -- we're at 5% for conforming/7-8% for jumbos now, versus maybe 12% then.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Okay. BJW has the inventory going under 11,000 at some point. But, I called it over 11,00 first so you'll have to wait in line for vindication.

"IMHO, part of the difference is interest rates -- we're at 5% for conforming/7-8% for jumbos now, versus maybe 12% then."

This actually makes things a lot worse right now, since as the rates rise, the prices will fall further and the inventory will increase.

"we are clocking along at around 10,000 units a year"

Not even half that. Else inventory wouldn't have gone from 5,000 to 11,000 in a year. The math is impossible.

Interest rates don't matter in the long-term - what matters is affordability: the ratio between carrying costs and incomes. And on that measure we are far worse off than we were in the 80's or 90's.

The SEVEN YEARS worth of inventory you are talking about includes thousands of co-op conversions that were never really part of the inventory: they were made available for sale, but they were occupied by rent-regulated tenants who had the option not to purchase and could not be kicked out. That is not true "inventory."

Sorry.

I just got 11000 right now with that search. Do anyone have noisemakers?

I am vindicated!

I am going to now predict that it will go over 11500. BJW, you are going to have to wait...

I was mistaken with that 7k number. From an UD post 2 days ago:

"According to the data from today, it seems year over year inventory rose by about 79%:

MARCH 23, 2008 - 6,121 listings
MARCH 23, 2009 - 10,965 listings"

well, it looks like it's headed towards 11,010 now.

stevejhx -- i've been thinking about this the past couple of days.

is it fair to count units in new construction that is less than 70% sold in calculating inventory? I'm thinking that new construction that is less than 70% sold is similar to coop conversions in the 80s/90s. Here's my thought about new construction under the 70% threshold, either:

a) it gets converted to rental (which would have an indirect effect on pricing as it would eventually depress rental prices more)
b) it gets zombied between the lawyers/lenders/developers and becomes available at auction in the future at which point it becomes actual inventory.

To include in today's inventory units that will not or cannot be sold doesn't seem to be fair. I would love to be refuted in my logic on this ... also, does anybody have an idea of how much of the inventory is comprised of units in buildings that are under the 70% threshold.

I've been thinking about this...for about five minutes.

But I have a different question/perspective:

The reason inventory is important,presumably, is because greater supply coupled with low sales volume puts pressure on sellers to reduce prices to clear the market. However, sellers can be stubborn and not sell for whatever reason,unless of course they have to for personal reasons or financial reasons. But new construction is different because it absolutely has to be dealt with in the short to medium term, that is, the sellers are under much greater pressure to sell. Therefore the volume of new construction is particularly important to have some idea of the future direction of the market, especially when sales closed volume is low (ie, low absorption rate). (Granted, the effect of new construction is reduced by renting instead of selling, but that has an indirect effect on the market as noted.)

Does anyone know the volume of new construction units under development in Man below 96th?

On another thread someone calculated 1250 new units underway in Wmburg (counting things like Nside Towers that are already partially occupied).

But of course new construction may get zombied as you say ...but if that happens to any significant degree it will 1) be a sign of a real market meltdown, and 2) make all players percieve that things are getting worse, so dampen prices.