It could take years to revisit recent peaks

I agree.

Not a counterpoint, so doesnt have to be intelligent.

i hope someone offers a counterpoint bevcause we about to sign on the place of our dreams after renting in a great but expensive building . we are a young family and we dont want to lose our shirt in this. my husband is the only one working but i plan to go back in two years but a teachers salary wont help. we have enough reserved so it my husband loses his job we will be okay for at least two years ( this was planned in advance maybe overplanned ) we are buyiing with a thought of reselling in about 7years as we may have to move out of state due to my husbands work. we figured if we left before that we could rent out the place. your thoughts???? if any

you won't "lose your shirt" with that horizon, at least not in NYC real estate, but the question is might it pay to wait to come out of the situation a bit better.

they say rent is a waste, but considering that for the first three years 80-85% of your mortgage payment is interest (granted its deductible if you dont get caught in AMT), youre not building massive equity and paying property taxes while losing a return on a downpayment...all this while keeping in mind that the topic of this thread is stagnant prices for the foreseeable future(?)

what are your expectations about re-selling? Is it your plan to make a "bundle"? Those types of days might be behind us for a while to come.

However the beauty about nyc real esate is that you can rent out easily (if are in an apartment with a reasonable board) and rent prices dont really fall like real estate in nyc...theyre fairly sticky, let alone rise with inflation

#3--It sounds like you have been quite cautious. With a time horizon like yours I would not worry about it.You say it is "the place of your dreams", so it sounds like the impetus for the purchase is living thre happily for at least seven years, not speculative "make a bundle" kind of thinking. You sound like you have covered all bases (but for unforeseen ones that noone in any market can plan for) Go for it, and enjoy your new home!!!!

we are buying a place in brookly which is quite expensive and people do rent in so will that also help

This is an interesting article. However, I noticed that embedded in the article towards the end was a link to the 5 cities that are supposedly "bubble-proof" of which New York was one!

I see a sideways market for some time. No collapse, but no ring-a-ding-ding action, either.

it will be a long slow decline - you honestly are probably better off renting now. Prices have already dipped and once this thing really gets moving I'd expect to see quite a bit of price reduction in NYC (though I agree not to the extent you would in other markets). Would suck to see your down payment lost if prices do decline 20% or so over a period of years.

yeah, and the polar ice caps will continue to melt so make sure you rent something on a high floor and get flood insurance.

#9 what do u base this on????

sideways markets wreak havoc on your return

If you buy in Manhattan and not Washington Hts., Harlem, parts of bklyn.than you will always make a profit...the question is how much.

Hate to break it to all the bears here, but Prices for larger apts in NYC are being bid up, and supply is dwindling. The fact is that NYC has pretty much gone unscathed in this Housing debalacle. I, am not saying when all the new supply comes to market in the next 2 years, it wont pull in, however NYC was hit much harder during the last downturn in RE, and may be hit less this time arround. If NYC, considers to maintain its status as a large low crime City, and the financial economy holds up then RE in NYC should at worst pull in a bit.

nyc is still 1/2 the price of London or Tokyo per sq foot.

The nyc market is being buoyed by foreigners with their currency (British Pound about 2:1 and euro 1.30:1). i have gone to several open houses the past few months and it is all foreigners buying pied a terres, homes for their kids, etc. also, you had the end-of-year-bonus money that caused a spike in sales in jan/feb. With the recent sub-prime worries in the marketplace (witness New Century Financial,a lender most likely having to file for bankruptcy, even after begging the major banks for credit extensions) my worry is that the credit woes of this lending class spreads to those wiht more stable credit and thus a rise in foreclosures, firesales, etc. Even though NYC is very different from other cities with resepects to real estate you gotta think that prices will at soften 15-20% over the next year or two.....

agree with #9..we've been looking in the 2MM range - see lots of room for negotiating that wasn't there last year. just look at natefind.com and this site every day and see how many reductions there are

Little black arrows everywhere on streeteasy. Pointed downward. Little. Black. Arrows.

Not all the arrows go down:
http://www.natefind.com/results.php?choice=buy&location=1438+third+ave&low=x&high=x&br=0&Submit=Natefind+Apartments&column=3&direction=1&searchcodes=103+&page=0&nyc=&pagelast=0&searchexception=1438++ave

don't forget these. Little, black, up, arrows:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/1438-3-avenue-manhattan

what an ugly building

Yes, but fortunately I will be able to live on the inside. The great thing about us buying in this building is that we don't have a view of it.

Sure there are arrows that go up, but you look at the overall trend across all buildings - there are MANY more down arrows than up arrows

#22, if those are your thoughts after plunking down $$$ on a place in this high priced market, then man, what a sh!tty feeling

ya that's great #22, "yep I live in that ugly building over there, wanna come up and see my apartment"

Oh, c'mon people, like all the other high rises on the upper east side are beautiful?

fACT: Apartments in te Maison East will appreciate by at least 25% in one year from now. It is the best deal ever. They are almost sld out.

How does the Maison East compare to the Welington House on 82nd street?

stop posting about that ugly maison east building...

Little black arrows. Love it.

I ridicule your bitterness and fart in your general direction. I love my new ugly building.
I look at your gorgeous building from my 25th floor terrace while you have to stare up at my ugly building. Plus you spent 500k more than me for the same sq ft. And the winner is......
not you.

But your building isn't new

its new to me my little beotch.

Hmmm, so far you've admitted your building is ugly (eyesore) and now you say the building is only new to you therefore really calling it old.

So you paid some considerable buckaroos in this fairly high priced market for a place in an ugly old building. Congratulations.

What apt do I send the housewarming fruit basket to?

The most awesome apartment I have ever been in is on 333 Broome St. It is a 4000 sq.ft. loft with a roof deck. Truly a work of art. The building that it is in looks from the outside like it should be torn down. I admit I would have preferred if my beloved Maison East was new and sexy, but that one very minor downside to us was worth the 20% below market purchase price. Can you please include peaches? I love peaches.

Maison east is the best. I am so smart and lucky for buying there....You just wish you were me.

ewww! maison east is nasty!

Oy, le Maison East. It's an insane asylum, is it not? Judging by some of the posts I've seen it must be & some of the inmates have gotten loose. Alors!

Reality check.......New York City = international market. Put my 3 bdrm loft up for sale, in one weeks time had 4 offers all over asking. 3 out of the 4 were foreign born. With the value of the american dollar, I don't see those valleys you dream of happening.