Interesting article I found - Could've been posted on SE before, so apologise if its re-post. A report written by the New York Fed in 1980 on the topic of the 1970s co-op market. I was interested to see how unbelievably well the market did despite the Carter-era stagflation. Obviously today is not 1975, but there is a rather large, respectable camp of economists who think we are headed toward... [more]
Interesting article I found - Could've been posted on SE before, so apologise if its re-post. A report written by the New York Fed in 1980 on the topic of the 1970s co-op market. I was interested to see how unbelievably well the market did despite the Carter-era stagflation. Obviously today is not 1975, but there is a rather large, respectable camp of economists who think we are headed toward major inflation because of all the liquidity the Fed has tried to pump into the economy. Intuition would say that stagflation would be horrible for apt prices, and most posters here say that the declines will be even worse if interest rates spike, but the most recent era of significant inflation saw the exact opposite happen.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/quarterly_review/1980v5/v5n1article3.pdf[less]
Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
Interesting. Page 18, second paragraph from the bottom. Just as I don't think we'll see wage inflation, I don't think we'll see inflation (in the next couple of years) in the rental market.
Of course, I could very well be wrong.
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Response by freewilly
about 17 years ago
Posts: 229
Member since: Sep 2008
I wonder what the smart money is doing. TIPS, gold, foreign currency, cash under the mattress etc?
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
It depends on what smart money you are. If I weren't limited to mutual funds, I'd be in the market right now (OK, not right now, I would have cashed out already, unwilling to wait and see if the FASB would send the S&P to heaven or hell). But I would NOT be in long and hold.
Taleb was on CNBC, yesterday I think, with Arianna Huffington no less. As he said, cash is currently a viable investment strategy. Corporate bonds have some opportunities, I've been told. Lots of folks out there think commodity inflation (and some smarties are even revisiting the oil idea) is coming, but timing is tricky. I'd short the dollar, but as Bill Gross wrote yesterday, the dollar's current elevation is counterintuitive, and I fear there may be forces greater than the market at play there. Currencies would scare the hell out of me. Gold would be a good addition to the pot.
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Response by nyc10022
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
We really worrying about inflation, when housing, declining 30% or more, is a HUGE chunk of the CPI?
Interesting. Page 18, second paragraph from the bottom. Just as I don't think we'll see wage inflation, I don't think we'll see inflation (in the next couple of years) in the rental market.
Of course, I could very well be wrong.
I wonder what the smart money is doing. TIPS, gold, foreign currency, cash under the mattress etc?
It depends on what smart money you are. If I weren't limited to mutual funds, I'd be in the market right now (OK, not right now, I would have cashed out already, unwilling to wait and see if the FASB would send the S&P to heaven or hell). But I would NOT be in long and hold.
Taleb was on CNBC, yesterday I think, with Arianna Huffington no less. As he said, cash is currently a viable investment strategy. Corporate bonds have some opportunities, I've been told. Lots of folks out there think commodity inflation (and some smarties are even revisiting the oil idea) is coming, but timing is tricky. I'd short the dollar, but as Bill Gross wrote yesterday, the dollar's current elevation is counterintuitive, and I fear there may be forces greater than the market at play there. Currencies would scare the hell out of me. Gold would be a good addition to the pot.
We really worrying about inflation, when housing, declining 30% or more, is a HUGE chunk of the CPI?
Try again...