how much would you pay per sq foot now?

Frankly I think the sweet spot is between $500 and $700 psf for any desireable area of Manhattan. Right now you can find nice places in the $900+ range, so we have a ways to go IMO.

UESBandit - If you think you can find a 2500 sf WV apartment for 1.5 million, please show it to us.....

500 - 700 in Chelsea, WV, UWS, UES for generic type buildings...

Anything in Wmburg or B Hts....25% less.

Or I won't buy.

Remember, though, it's not whether you would buy, it's if someone will buy. I don;t believe that you are going to get deals being done in the WV for $500-600 sf. Somebody will step in before that and see it as a chance to buy in the WV when they couldn't before. That will help put a floor on those neighborhoods.

I don't expect to get that probably in the WV...but maybe Chelsea. This is personal. I won't buy until I feel that the next buyer, whenever, my take out, does not have to be a "fool" to buy, i.e., so I don't want to buy at greater-fool bubble prices.

"If you think you can find a 2500 sf WV apartment for 1.5 million, please show it to us"

They arent available at that price yet, but the OP said what would you pay psf now. Many industry people (and publications) have said $500 to $600 psf is where we are headed, and I believe it. So getting back to my point, I am holding off on buying until we at least get much closer to those figures. I think you are correct that people will start buying up property before it gets to that point, however once prices truly are in that range it will give ALL buyers great leverage with negotiations.

I'll play (this is mostly for s&g, right?):

1) new reno west village 2BR (I'll assume 2BA too, though that makes a considerable difference) - $750
2) new reno union sq 2BR/2BA - $650
3) condo conversion brooklyn heights - $600

Too many factors to give you a reasonable answer on limited data. I think the 90% range for WV is probably $1000 - 1250 per foot, take a 10-15% haircut for Union Square, and take a 20-205% haircut for BH. This is based on actual sq. footage, not the inflated square footage that results in deflated ppsf numbers for many coops. Remember that brokers enter the data, so ppsf that is typically reported for an area/building is probably about 10-15% below actual due to square foot inflation.

If I understand the question it asks how much YOU would pay right now, not where the market currently is. My answer is based on where I think the market is going, and what level I would buy at. I don't know where prices currently are.

WV - 500-600/sqft
US - 400-500/sqft
BH - 300/sqft

That's what I would pay -- I'd like to pay even less as I think the prices/sq ft in nyc is ridiculous - have to see if prices hit that level. - crossing fingers.

jimSE - I totally agree with you, but the interesting thing is that price is defined by the fringes on the way down and also on the way up. I think there are numbers that people will jump in to buy in certain neighborhoods that will put a floor on those areas. That might also be when other neighborhoods see some sort of a bump, too. Now, this could take a long time to get to those numbers, but it makes sense to expect places like the WV, Soho, Tribeca and other desirable neighborhoods to show an increase before, say, Red Hook.

And so it continues...the buyer/seller stand-off in NYC :-)!

Everyone here wants to see prices drop, and they are dropping, but you will be waiting for eternity to find a place in the WV for 500-600 sq ft unless it is a shoebox of a studio or there is something seriously wrong with it. As a potential buyer in this market, I would love nothing more than to see that happen, but it just won't. Same goes for US and BH. You'll miss the bottom if you wait for those prices. Manhattan (and WV in particular) is still the best and most valuable real estate in the country. Good luck tho.