news story: Manh coop prices down 22%

There is not decline in Manhattan RE. Somebody said so.

JuiceMan said so.

"There is not decline in Manhattan RE. Somebody said so."

Yes, our resident "prices are going UP" broker Alpine292 has said that numerous times....

mmm-hmmm.

But note that here the party who says the market declined was a BROKER. If one of them says it dropped by 22%, you can be sure that it actually dropped by far far more than that.

"But note that here the party who says the market declined was a BROKER."

Ahhh, you see thats the trick. The SMART brokers are the ones embracing the market and using it to their adavantage right now. A good (from a sales perspective) broker will be pointing out how far prices have come down, and use that to generate excitement and sales. A crappy broker (cough, ALPINE292, cough) will deny what is clearly obvious to the rest of the world, thus shooting himself in the foot. Sales of any kind is a tough business, and you need to be able to spin ANY situation to your advantage. There is a reason so few people are truly successful at sales (in any industry).

More on the reports..

>> Manhattan condo sales plummet
Four residential real estate reports issued Thursday all showed broad declines but slim gains in prices as buyers and sellers continue their standoff.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090402/FREE/904019953/1058

Notice this part...

"As a result, inventory in Manhattan hit its highest level in the decade since Mr. Miller began tracking that statistic, soaring to 10,445 units, up 34% from the year-ago period. What’s more, he notes that those figures do not include the units that developers do not actively market to sellers, known as their shadow inventory. Mr. Miller estimates that there are 5,000 to 7,000 units that fall into that murky category. "

"nyc10022
about 8 weeks ago
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Actually, why is anyone looking at volume anymore?

Volume drops were originally noted as precursors to price drops, thats why they got mentioned. Thing is, we're already at the price drops... so why go back to looking at volume again?"

So now you agree? Looking at both volume AND pricing is the way to go.

Minimum 3 to 4 year supply of apartments on the market right now and the current absorption rate.

Minimum.

steve, you're probably right, but the question really is how sustainable is that absorption rate? In other words, how long can sellers hold out before seriously lowering their price points? I'm not sure anyone has a satisfactory answer there.

but bjw, how long can inventory rise if unemployment rises to 10% and then stays there?

aboutready, it can continue to rise (and seems like it will for a while); I just don't know where it'll hit a real inflection point.

"Volume drops were originally noted as precursors to price drops, thats why they got mentioned. Thing is, we're already at the price drops... so why go back to looking at volume again?"

So now you agree? Looking at both volume AND pricing is the way to go."

BJW, do you understand the difference between volume and inventory?
I guess not, otherwise your comment would have made sense.

I copied that for the interesting thing on shadow inventory. I had never seen a source put a number to it, but its been argued a lot here.

But, keep trying. If you try and spend the rest of your live archiving my posts and double checking them, you might get something some day! I heavily suggest you spend more time doing this!

Acutally nyc, the very first line in your post says "Manhattan condo sales plummet." Your snark is hilarious though.

The absorption rate will remain low until prices fall 50% as they have throughout the country where there were asset-bubble prices. Unlike California and Florida, we have slow foreclosure proceedings here, which means that inventories will rise and rise and rise.

Making the ultimate correction worse.

Yes, it was the title of the article that contained the specific part I quoted. I should have changed the title, you are correct.

And didn't you just try and call ME juvenile 5 minutes ago?

Wow, are you a hypocrite loser.

nyc10022, yes, I said your comments were, but I mean, it's clear that I actually had foundation for making that statement. Chill out.

Hypocrite, *you* need to chill out. Get yourself a life, and stop playing hall monitor

boys, boys, boys.

nyc, when you pick and choose how you interpret what other people say, it leaves you few sympathizers when you claim some one does it to you.

That said, no need for ad hominem.

an ironclad law of economics is the relationship between supply and demand. this ratio will determine price movement. we have quite a bit of supply that is not only growing but the rate of increase is growing as well. we have minimal to no demand. prices will therfore fall. in our hyper velocity world we can expect this to happen at quite a fast clip. the current decline is pretty astounding considering real estate is not as liquid as stocks or bonds. we overshot to the upside, we probably overshoot to the downside. sideliners keep your powder dry. our day is coming.

"nyc, when you pick and choose how you interpret what other people say, it leaves you few sympathizers when you claim some one does it to you."

Not looking for sympathizers, Steve...

Wbjw is an ass to me, he will get a response. I don't need your approval for that.