Q1 Miller Samuel Numbers

Yes I am very funny. Thank you.

The stock market hit 6500.

Case closed.

See what I mean, bjw?

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
-steve

> The stock market hit 6500.
> Case closed.

Yes, exactly.

So why do you keep trying to lie?

And that bjw has aligned himself with the accuracy of the lie...

Just TOO easy.

Keep trolling, though.

I think that the powers that be are going to do everything they can to force a bull market. Wednesday the SEC meets on the uptick rule and other items, and the media is going to spin this in favor of the Bulls. I am exiting these short positions today or tomorrow.

Yes, I do steve. All I did was say you were ultimately correct about the Dow, and he spouted off here (see the 6 consecutive posts above, replete with histrionics, all caps screaming, and insults). If that's not a troll...

Given its a lie you are spouting (again!), yes, you are absolutely the troll!

BTW, you also need to learn how to count. 6 doesn't come after 2.

Keep trolling, though!

I hear you, mh23. Very tough calls right now. I sold off all my shares of IRE too early, anticipating pullback about the stock's sextupled since I had bought most of what I had (just 4 weeks ago), and yet, it's been keeping that same crazy momentum. Nuts.

nyc, nyc, nyc!

You finally wised up and started chanting my name... cool.

"I think that the powers that be are going to do everything they can to force a bull market. Wednesday the SEC meets on the uptick rule and other items, and the media is going to spin this in favor of the Bulls. I am exiting these short positions today or tomorrow."

I agree with you 100%. We were getting to a point where the dow decline itself was casuing (and not just responding to) economic damage. They want this thing to roll at least until some actual stabilization comes in. Thing is, perceived upswings can become actual upswings... which I think is what they are hoping for. if it gets folks out there buying, I won't complain.

I've been shaving off the SSOs I bought on the way down... real or not, I'm totally psyched for the run up. You're talking 50% off the bottom with the double longs.

"started chanting my name"

Wow! Weird....

"Given its a lie you are spouting (again!), yes, you are absolutely the troll!"

Takes some really cojones to write that when it's so obviously untrue.

"BTW, you also need to learn how to count. 6 doesn't come after 2."

Considering I was writing my post prior to seeing your first in that sequence, you've got quite a string going there. And if that's the best retort you can come up with...

"Takes some really cojones to write that when it's so obviously untrue."

You can say "untrue" all you want, but, sorry, you lied...

Keep trolling.

"Considering I was writing my post prior to seeing your first in that sequence, you've got quite a string going there. And if that's the best retort you can come up with...

You're complaining that my insults aren't good enough? Seriously?

Wow, really.... you ARE a troll.

bjw, it's not worth it. Put nyc on "ignore." He lives in his own private idaho.

Yes, put me on ignore and then you can lie 'till your heart is content!

I'll stay in my private Idaho where we're so crazy we don't think "is" means "is not" and "up" is not "down". Crazy.

This market action is really perplexing me. There is no question that this is a bear market rally, but the problem with FAZ and SRS is that the decay makes it tough to come back. I should have put in stops when I bought at the open on Thursday, but I could not believe that the financials would continue to rally after FASB. Now I am trying to decide when to get out. My mind tells me that there should be a pullback, but this market is totally illogical. I knew in early March that stocks were oversold, and I knew that the removal of the depression and nationalization of banks was worth at least a 1k pop, which we got. A rally beyond that I don't get. I am still way up in the trading account, so I will probably hold overnight just because I know that right after I sell the market will tank, unless this thing turns green, and then I will just have to take my lumps and reload tomorrow.

As i've mentioned my animal spirits are somewhat lacking, but i'd be careful. there was remarkable positive sentiment in the financial media (msm, US, that is) up until about Thursday of last week, when all of a sudden the focus became much more negative (and not related to unemployment, either).

The pipp doesn't seem to be pipping along, their new call for participants is rather pitiful, actually. There's been a tremendous talk about the stress test results, and how they "hope nothing will be leaked." a gain in the market helps many, particularly pensions, but selling at a profit locks in that gain. it will be a tough call for certain institutional investors who virtually burned down their house recently. there's a lot of talk about fraud out there, and that's different from the some people were crooks but not everyone was complicit talk that has been thrown around since Bear went down.

Ritholtz, who has a good track record, is calling this overbought.

AR, I agree with you, but every push down seems to be returned by an even bigger push back. I don't think the news really matters that much anymore - anything short of armageddon again.

My broker friend tells me all the folks who sold out of the market 2 months ago (and he got several of these calls EACH DAY) now want back in.

It can be very tough to fight an inflow of capital like that. You might call it overbought - I like that word - but the challenge is the inertia where overbought just leads to more overbought.

For me, the big question is if this momentum can hold long enough until actual rebound economic data comes in. I just don't know.

But, I'm still happy to have the bounce.

I couldn't take the action, so I dumped my short positions when the market hit 100. Sometimes it does not pay to think too much. One thing is for sure, the fundamentals are very weak. However, the media desperately wants Obama to succeed, and the Govt. is doing everything they can to rpop up the market, presumably so that people feel better and they will spend. I did not sell any of my long positions, but I certainly will not be adding any either.

10022, i absolutely agree. i think the forces behind the bounce are formidable. i think they even have some numbers to back them up, just not ones that are justifiable long term (not that that would stop them). BUT when Bloomberg starts quoting Whitney (credit cards) and GS (banks can't keep up with loan losses), etc., instead of trotting out the "we've turned the corner" people, you've just got to watch out. IRA money is coming in, and PCE (due to elevated tax refunds, most likely) has been goosing the numbers.

Hard to tell where things will land over the next couple of weeks, or even until the next big blow-up, but I like Rosenberg's analysis here:

www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/rally-too-flashy-for-our-liking/

Then again, if i'd been in i would have gotten out right before the FASB announcement, which would have given me a decent return, but not the best, so i'm a bit of a coward.

"then you can lie 'till your heart is content!"

Yup!

As long as you see the error in your ways, steve... all good.

"10022, i absolutely agree. i think the forces behind the bounce are formidable. i think they even have some numbers to back them up, just not ones that are justifiable long term (not that that would stop them)."

We agree there if you make that middle term. Long term, I think we get our recovery, but I think we agree in that we've got a while of mess to go. Question is if this "holds us" until we get there.

BUT when Bloomberg starts quoting Whitney (credit cards) and GS (banks can't keep up with loan losses), etc., instead of trotting out the "we've turned the corner" people, you've just got to watch out. IRA money is coming in, and PCE (due to elevated tax refunds, most likely) has been goosing the numbers.

Yup and yup. Challenge is, just because they're off doesn't mean we'll see that correction. I think its a matter of if these guys can keep things "afloat" enough for actual recovery to begin. And folks are definitely that dumb (look at the RE market).

I like the Rosenberg analysis, too.