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A New Bull Market? Are You Out Of Your Mind?

Started by Otto
about 17 years ago
Posts: 128
Member since: Dec 2008
Discussion about
Merrill's economist David Rosenberg is unfortunately leaving the firm. Before he goes, however, he wants to warn you again that this boomlet is all just a sucker's rally. In fact, he thinks the market is headed to startling new lows. Why?" It all starts with the housing market. Read the rest here: http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-merrills-rosenberg-a-new-bull-market-are-you-out-of-your-mind-2009-4
Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Otto, I like Rosenberg. Takes courage to be the debbie downer in a place like Merrill in the 2000s. It starts with the housing market, continues with the commercial real estate market, stops of for some credit card defaults, sweeps up a tremendous change in consumer attitudes, through it all runs unemployment.

On the consumer:

www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2009/20090402/-Thu.html#anchor7642

ht infectious greed

Income tax returns are running at 18% above 2008, and oil, which is inching back up, provided a reprieve for the consumer. But only temporary. Explains those PCE numbers.

Bloomberg had a good article on Goldman's analysis on future banking losses, despite the FASB change. I can't find it, but in a nutshell, losses are accelerating on bad debt faster than the banks can make money (surprise).

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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

messed up the link,
www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2009/20090402-Thu.html#anchor7642

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