Where are all the people that said the world was ending?

i thought it was snake in "escape from new york."

Do you see anything positive on the facts below?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/mortgage-meltdown-more-pain-to-come.html

They're right here, JuiceMan:

"where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?"

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2651-where-are-all-the-idiots-who-made-the-2007-doomsday-predictions

10:07 AM Construction spending +0.8% in April M/M vs. -0.8% consensus and -10.7% Y/Y.
For the first four months of the year, construction spending -11.3% vs. the year earlier period.

10:09 AM The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 42.8 in May vs. 42 consensus, its 16th consecutive month of contraction. Nonmetallic Minerals and Plastics & Rubbers reported growth. Textile Mills and Furniture led the laggards.

And ericho, exactly what do those stats mean for Manhattan real estate?

"8:35 AM Personal income rose 0.5% ($58.2B) in April vs. -0.2% consensus.
Personal consumption expenditures -0.1% ($5.4B) vs. -0.2% consensus.
Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income rose to 5.7% in April vs. 4.5% in March"

We got wage increases!!!

That was a cut and paste from ERICHO75's earlier thread.
So, is Ericho75 correct all along? The economy is doing far better than everyone think.
My husband and i are holding off on buying a place, we're starting to get worried that higher rates and a more stable economy might price us out.

To buy or not to buy...

where's the guy who kept calling this the greatest financial crisis since the great depression? Oh yeah, he's still on t.v. yapping away.
Dreams come true - I own GM.

follow ericho's advice at your own peril.

ism was decent, but probably cyclical due to inventory finally bottoming. doubtful a sign of increased business, capital expenditures, or real PCE movement. the government flooded people with social security money, tax cuts went into place, and tax refunds went out. with all of that spending was still down .1%, and a real decline level of .2%. when incomes rise, for whatever reason, by .5%, it's kind of remarkable to see a decline in PCE.

for a bit of perspective, from econoday's calendar on bloomberg today (this is actually two entries, the first on income and wages, the second para from the construction report):

The April personal income report was not as good as many would like to believe despite the strong headline gain in income. The latest news still has the consumer on the sidelines in terms of pulling the economy out of recession.

If you look at the detail of today's report, it at best should be a mild positive for equities, given the cut in taxes boosting disposable personal income and a less-than-expected decline in spending. But traders probably will not be paying attention to the flat wages and salaries component, although they should. The strong headline number for income likely will cause rates to firm, although bond traders are more likely to eventually notice the flat wages. But bond traders also will be worried about higher core inflation. In terms of the overall financial status of the consumer, the higher unemployment benefits and tax cuts certainly leave the consumer better off than without. But the consumer is still likely to be caution about spending until jobs start returning.

The latest construction outlays report will almost certainly be seen as a positive by equities although underlying strength really is not there. Strength was in a somewhat unreliable subcomponent for home improvement which is based on a small sample from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. But the markets like all of the headline numbers today-for personal income, construction outlays, and ISM manufacturing. While headline figures for personal income and construction overstate true strength, the ISM report appears to be real improvement. Equities rose sharply on each of these three reports.

carolSt..... wow..... you are good.... you almost had me there for a minute.....

I don't understand the reference steve, but thanks for the link. I crack myself up.

"...it at best should be a mild positive for equities..."
Equities on the verge of a breakout across the board. S&P bumping it's head on new highs off the lows.

"follow ericho's advice at your own peril. "

I'm not offering any advice? I'm merely pointing to the fact that things are not as bad as they were a few months back. Folks should buy based on their own finances and personal needs. Why you can't understand that is beyond me. If you bulls can't afford manhattan, try forest hills. I think it's 300 bucks per square foot over there. If that's too much, consider moving to Kansas.

This seems to be the new bull tactic... the strawman argument.

Once it was pretty much clear that they lost their argument that there wouldn't be massive (an unprecedted) correction - which is still going, btw - they're trying to play this game of "well, its not down 99% so I'm right after all".

I've now seen 4-5 bulls do this in the last week alone. SteveF, Alpine in his "see, we're not detroit" thread a couple days ago, bla bla.

Its all a little pathetic, really.

Keep your hands and feet in the car at all times, no standing.

This rides not over.

all this data is encouraging, it really is, and of course when you have a slowdown as fierce and dramatic as we just had, the pace of decline will eventually slow. But we are at now now. S&P is up 40%, and clearly is pricing in a V recovery. The question is twofold:

1) does it come and do earnings recover
2) is it sustainable

My gut tells me that the boatloads of fiscal and monetary stimulus, is causing a reflation trade. But we all know that this is not sustainable. Yes, it prevented a catastrophe and YES, many are starting to feel better and hope again. But what if, just what if, it doesnt last? Thats the thing. I just dont buy into the sustainability of it, and this new world is going to be alot less sexy than the parabolic credit boom world we saw from 2003-2007. That world is gone.

So, lets keep it real. This rally certainly can go on, and the short squeeze alone can power it much higher, but in the end, with every rally, stocks are less and less of a value and right when consensus starts to get complacent, the bottom usually falls out from under you. To say there are not problem loans/MBS still on banks balance sheets or to say that consumer is strong again, is nuts. I mean, they tweaked the whole accounting methods so banks can survive! Ericho, you do understand that! But sooner or later it all comes out.

Your right, things are NOT as bad, and the rise in confidence is causing a feedback loop that will likely lead to higher confidence and more spending in next few months. But is it sustainable? What is the foundation for growth? And will we see unintended consequences from the actions that are causing this reflation trade. Its one thing to call everyone a doomsdayer just because they saw this crisis from very early on, and but its another to say they were wrong when equities are STILL down 38% from their highs, even after this amazing rally for the past 3 months. Put things into perspective. Nothing goes in straight line, and yes, I was way wrong as to the duration of this rally.

"Its all a little pathetic, really."

Funny, I find that hoping and praying for a crash while misrepresenting data to support a one-sided, antagonistic view as pathetic as it gets. Funny how a little positive momentum seems to really bother some people on this board, makes you question agendas even more (like we needed any additional reasons)

Digs is right to ask the sustainability question, but I for one am happy to see some of the dark clouds begin to part. At least it seems we won’t be eating Chef Boyardee out of a can while living in an outhouse in Central Park.

"but I for one am happy to see some of the dark clouds begin to part."

amen to that! It was very scary for a while late last year

JuiceMan: "I crack myself up."

That's obvious. It seems to have already happened.

Otherwise, it's illogical to conflate the stock market with Manhattan real estate. The two are uncorrelated (according to Jonathan Miller, at least), and while the consensus is that the rest of the country is seeing a slowing in the housing collapse, New York City is (as usual) way behind the curve.

Where else would we be?

You can't teach a monkey new tricks unless its willing to learn.

This temporary amnesia is a total carbon copy of what we had earlier.

Not much more to say here except these same people will be yet again get caught off-guard soon, just like they were taken many times earlier.

Doesn't get any more interesting with each "amnesia cycle" occurrence though. A few years ago Bear Stearn Funds collapsed... caused a stir. Then everything was ok again as it "only" affected subprime, and subprime is such a small portion of mortagees so all is ok. Then the markets rallied back and we forgot... now repeat this over and over again and you will have this repeating "amnesia" cycle... where people forget, until it hits them smack in the face... and with each downward relapse, a NEW bottom is formed.

well, looks like the lemmings are about to get taken yet again.

LOL... FASB rule changes, massive monetization, collapsing demand and increased savings (less consumption) and what? we fixed all the problems?

Bottom line is that all the sweeping of the dirt under the rug does not fix anything. In fact, it will just make the problem worse once the initial "sugar high" of these very short-term targeted policies wears off.

As I said before, and this is on this board so go ahead and search it- this is but a mere, cyclical counter trend rally in a secular bear market. I specifically said I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P hits even 1,000 before this cyclical rally is done with.

But make no mistake- the systemic financial problems have not been solved (some lemmings will believe the pig on a lipstick solution though).

We are near the cyclical top of this counter-trend rally.

And soon, all these lemmings will get taken, yet again. They just never learn.

uwsmom

He said WE COULD be facing the greatest crisis since the great depression if we did nothing.

Get your facts straight.

kk, thanks.

Sorry, I disagree with the "hope" paradigm. We are going to see a rebalancing between the 1st World & everyone else. This is just a blip "up" in the ride.

They're all at the Nassim Nicholas Taleb conference

did you say RUFUS?

"Otherwise, it's illogical to conflate the stock market with Manhattan real estate."

I agree. My (slight) optimism has nothing to do with the stock market but rather general consumer sentiment, which is the #2 reason we will pull out of this. If we can just get credit flowing again we can all (except for the folks that still think we should be living in South Dakota caves) breathe a sigh of relief.

As far as the market goes, I do find it interesting that the market could care less about GM’s bankruptcy, funny world we live in.

"Funny, I find that hoping and praying for a crash while misrepresenting data to support a one-sided, antagonistic view as pathetic as it gets."

Your right. One thing I can't stand is that anytime someone posts positive news here, the naysayers try to spin it and argue why it's not true, bulls are delusional, blah blah blah.

"Funny, I find that hoping and praying for a crash while misrepresenting data to support a one-sided, antagonistic view as pathetic as it gets. Funny how a little positive momentum seems to really bother some people on this board, makes you question agendas even more (like we needed any additional reasons)"

Agreed, JuiceMan. What's perhaps more hilarious is the complaint about strawman arguments and then, in the same post, he composes this lovely bit (a strawman if I ever saw one): "they're trying to play this game of "well, its not down 99% so I'm right after all"."

RR1, what have we done? spent some money? now the government is going on a credit binge, rather than the consumer. that makes me feel much better. although i do agree with UD and others, looking into the abyss wasn't very pleasant.

JM, that CP outhouse would be a prime piece of real estate. you might have some competition for it. Spam isn't so bad as long as you still have a stove and can fry it up nice and crispy.

"This seems to be the new bull tactic... the strawman argument.

Once it was pretty much clear that they lost their argument that there wouldn't be massive (an unprecedted) correction - which is still going, btw - they're trying to play this game of "well, its not down 99% so I'm right after all".

Interesting. The last time I checked, "well, its not down 99% so I'm right after all" is a STRAW MAN argument. Hypocrite.

JM.... the GM thing has been baked in weeks ago... the ? is how severely will if affect jobs => forward.... big ? as what is the real car sales/annum in the "new" economy, 17MM, 15MM, 10MM? if 10MM, will the US taxpayer subsidize Auto jobs? is that where we are heading?

MMafia show me your shelter and I'll show u mine. :)

let me get something straight... America will recover, it's the TIMING iz gotz issues with some people here (who shall remain nameless, namely Alpine292, juiceman, ericho75) (sorry it was so good I had to use it twice).... it ain't gonna take 10yrs like Japan.... but my gut is it ain't 18 months either

And the exciting & scary thing is not a single of one of us knows how that recovery will be shaped. Are we going to seize the day or just put off the real day of reckoning?

"but my gut is it ain't 18 months either"

I'm thinking 19 is probably right, maybe 22.

Folks,
We're getting a technical breakouts on the major averages today. If we close at the highs, whatever is powering this recovery is starting to take shape. I'm a real technical guy and i trade price. I'm just say'n.....

urbandigs, i respect your honest read on what's happening with the 'current' economic data. You have my highest regards. Again, i agree with most of the bears here that Manhattan prices should continue to stay soft but what differs me from the them are the the rate of decline and length of the decline. Some are calling for another 20-30% down on top of the 30% that they claim we've experienced. With credit starting to ease and an economy starting to stabilize, i can't see how NYC prices can drop another 20-30% within the next 6-8 months.

who you calling fulks?

okay so let's say 20-40% in the next 12 months... happy, gilmore? Do u drive on the BQE alot?

Big man hug JM, let's split the difference between 10 yrs and your 22 months... and call it 3 more years to go....

sounds good w67th, 25 months it is.

ericho-RE prices can continue to fall with a rising stock market. interest rates are climbing and employment has not bottomed yet. i think RE prices going forward are most dependent on those two factors. how high those rates go and when employment picks up is all guess work. in the meantime we have huge inventory, tough lending, higher taxes, higher maintenances. this keeps me sidelined. RE will struggle here.

"I'm thinking 19 is probably right, maybe 22"

What is this, To Catch a Predator?

cfranch,

You shorting into this rally? 943 on the s&p looking like a tough nut to crack.
And trust me, if this market continues to rally all that inventory will get chewed up pretty quickly in NYC.

"And trust me"

Why? Because you live in Long Island City?

People tend to forget that Taleb had to shut his hedge fund down a couple years ago because the world hadn't crashed yet and people got tired of not making money. I'm a big fan of his theory, but you can't expect the world to not have some upside.

Why? Because you live in Long Island City?
No because you're my biggest fan. Why else would you read all my comments? Put me on ignore if you don't like what you see.

"Why else would you read all my comments?"

I don't read all of them. Trust me.

I thought steve was my biggest fan. steve, come back buddy . . .

"Its all a little pathetic, really."

> Funny, I find that hoping and praying for a crash while misrepresenting data to support a one-sided,
> antagonistic view as pathetic as it gets.

Sigh.... another strawman argument from the Juice.

Don't confuse praying for a crash with predicting it.... and being *correct*.

> Funny how a little positive momentum seems to really
> bother some people on this board, makes you question agendas even more (like we needed any
> additional reasons)

Add in a little hypocrisy.

Juice, seems like you are the bothered one here. You started the thread!

Not bothered at all, just wondering where everyone went. Do you think things have improved over the last 6 months nyc10022?

ok seriously. I think you (nyc10022) and juice man should give it a rest over the straw man arguments because BOTH of you use them. So whenever one of you goes after the other for using one, you sre instantly a hypocrite.

Alpine, I don't think you understand what a strawman argument is...

> Not bothered at all, just wondering where everyone went.

Almost all are still here, the comments you made up just never really were...

> Do you think things have improved over the
> last 6 months nyc10022?

I think perception has. I think the expectation of worst case scenario has receded.

But, in terms of actual economy, no... we're still declining in most places I look. Most of the "positive' stats say we're falling slower, but thats not improving, thats just not getting worse as fast...

How did I miss the irony on this.

The best case scenarios folks are pointing at say recession ends at the end of the year, right? I don't know too many folks who say earlier or that it has already ended.

Well, look up the term "recession" and then ask your question again.

ROTFL...

"I don't think you understand what a strawman argument is..."

it’s when you get really angry at a scarecrow

JM, that was snortworthy. but don't you think it might be when the scarecrow doesn't have enough straw? and needs...

"I'm a big fan of his theory, but you can't expect the world to not have some upside."

Unless you are one of the doom-and-gloom people that shout out any other opinion on this site (and I don't need to name names ..you know who you are..) They can't seem to find any positive news in anything. ALL recoveries have to start somewhere.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a0YWHa_TROoM

jsmith9005,
That's why i think ericho75's radical views a few weeks ago about a recovery isn't that far fetch.

I really hate to see this country fall into an abyss. There are many Americans who are caught in this crisis but didn't participate in the creation of it. A recovery would be welcome.

no one doesn't want a recovery. but wanting it does not equal it happening. pretending its happening when its not leads to greater and greater problems. that appears to be the link missing for you.

being pleasant doesn't build bridges.

"i can't see how NYC prices can drop another 20-30% within the next 6-8 months."

- keep having days like today in the Mortgage/Treasury market and you'll see it soon enough...the Fed is boxed in and China is giving a tongue lashing to little Timmy this week

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoE7033VGQcI&refer=home

Fed offers to buy more Treasuries, bonds get saved but $$$ tanks and inflation goes through the roof, which in turn kills bonds anyways

Fed stays pat and say hello to Bond Vigilantes who will demand 4% minimum...if they are lucky...which will crap out the Mortgage Market

Just wait for the 10 and 30 year auctions next week....should be just about the time when reality sets in....

I have no idea why everyone seems to think we can just spend, spend and spend some more and not have any consequences.....it truly is amazing

"I don't think you understand what a strawman argument is..."

He gave a pretty good example of one you used, nyc10022: "they're trying to play this game of "well, its not down 99% so I'm right after all"."

spending money can actually cause house prices to skyrocket. How much are houses in Zimbabwae? $100 trillion? $500 trillion?